港交所 20260228 摘要 因此有必要在固定收益、外汇以及大宗商品等领域进行必要且审慎的投资。同 时，将在保持良好成本管控的前提下，持续评估投入方向与方式，聚焦能够带 来最佳机会的领域。 随着港交所提出未来十年将加强中国内地与其他亚洲经济体市场之间的互联互 通，并提及可能与马来西亚等地区扩大互联互通，相关举措将如何推进、如何 实现与该地区更紧密连接？ 未来互联互通的重点是在巩固中国内地互联互通这一核心优势的同时，将互联 互通网络从既有模式进一步延展至其他亚洲经济体，形成具有全球吸引力的区 域流动性池。推进路径包括：继续扩大与海外交易所的合作伙伴网络，强化与 中东及东南亚市场的互联互通基础；在此基础上，利用互联互通带来的市场可 及性提升，促进区域资本对接区域内的增长机遇，并为全球投资者提供更广泛 的区域流动性与增长敞口；同时，配合产品侧扩容，为投资者提供更多布局亚 洲及中国相关资产的工具，覆盖现金市场、ETP、衍生品及跨资产风险管理工 具等，以提升互联互通的使用深度与交易活跃度。2025 年已在中东和东南亚 方向推进互联互通并扩展合作网络，同时在中东设立新办事处，并欢迎来自相 港交所对 CMU OmniCl ...

内容提要 2026年1月，货币市场日均交易量及余额均增加，主要回购利率走势分化，大型商业银行日均净融出余额增加；债券发行及交易环比均增加，债市收益率多 数下行，曲线形态稳定，信用利差收窄；利率互换曲线小幅上移，成交环比增加。 一、货币市场日均交易量及余额均增加，主要回购利率走势分化，大型商业银行日均净融出余额增加 （一）货币市场日均交易量环比增加 1月，货币市场成交总量为180.6万亿元（环比减少6.7%），日均成交8.6万亿元（环比增加2.2%）。 表1 货币市场成交情况 | 市场类型 | 成交金额 | 日均成交 | 环比 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | (亿元) | (%) | (%) | | 质押式回购 | 1699667 | 80937 | 1. 70% | 40. 70% | | 买断式回购 | 7437 | 354 | 7.00% | 21. 10% | | 信用拆借 | 98751 | 4702 | 10. 50% | 75. 60% | | 合计 | 1805855 | 85993 | 2. 20% | chi42. 20% ...

据中国外汇交易中心（以下简称"交易中心"）发布的最新数据，2026年1月，央行加大中期流动性 投放，下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点。资金面充裕，货币市场日均交易量及余额增 加，主要回购利率分化；债券发行及交易环比增加，债市收益率多数下行，曲线形态稳定，信用利差收 窄；利率互换曲线小幅上移，成交环比增加。从成交量来看，受前一年春节休假影响，当月银行间市场 成交222.5万亿元，环比减少6%，同比增长51%。 近期，央行发布《2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》，明确继续实施好适度宽松的货币政 策。安邦智库研究员表示，2026年，央行将存量和增量政策相结合，在保持货币适度宽松的同时，提高 政策效率和效力将是货币政策实施的一个重要目标。 主要回购利率分化 从二级市场看，债市收益率多数下行，10年期国债收益率基本运行在1.8%-1.9%区间，曲线形态稳 定，信用利差有所收窄。具体而言，数据显示，截至1月末，国债1、3、5、7、10和30年期到期收益率 分别为1.3%、1.4%、1.58%、1.68%、1.81%和2.29%，分别较上月末下降4个、上升2个、下降5个、下降 6个、下降4个、上升2个基 ...

[Table_Page] 固定收益|专题报告 2026 年 2 月 12 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 全球固收量化：四大流派&五大局限 未来已来系列之一 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [分析师： Table_Author]杜渐 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260526020003 | | 010-59136690 | | | | dujian@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 吴棋滢 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260519080003 | | | SFC CE No. BQN213 | | 021-38003588 | | | | wuqiying@gf.com.cn | 请注意，杜渐并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 972918116公共联系人2026-02-12 20:06:58 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] 中国人如何理财：存款搬家研 究框架:A 股资金面框架（一） 2025-10-14 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 17 [Tabl ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company finished the year strong with robust loan and core deposit growth, net interest margin expansion, and higher fee income [4] - Net interest margin expanded by 12 basis points to 2.75%, with net interest income increasing by 5% during the quarter [6][11] - Core deposits grew by 9% in the fourth quarter and 8% for the full year, while loans grew at an 11% pace [7] - Tangible book value per share grew 16.5% annualized and was up 15.3% year-over-year [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company saw strong revenue growth from both spread and fee perspectives, with non-interest income bouncing back due to increases in swap fees and letter of credit fees [16] - Core deposit growth was driven by strong non-interest-bearing deposit growth, which increased by $100 million during the fourth quarter [18] - Loan balances were up 8.9% annualized in the fourth quarter and 11.4% for the year, with construction being the largest driver of growth [20][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is now the second-largest locally led bank in the Twin Cities, positioning itself well to capture market share amid M&A disruptions [9] - The multifamily portfolio continues to perform well, with only $62,000 in net charge-offs recorded since the bank's founding [23] - Non-performing assets increased modestly to 0.41% of assets, driven by isolated issues [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to optimize profitable growth while aligning loan growth with core deposit growth and expanding net interest margin [30] - There is a focus on gaining market share in the Twin Cities and expanding the affordable housing vertical both locally and nationally [31] - The company plans to leverage technology investments to support growth and organizational efficiencies, including a strategy around AI [31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the ability to continue driving net interest income growth and achieving a 3% net interest margin by the end of 2026 [12][29] - The company is monitoring the impact of recent events in the Twin Cities on team members and clients, emphasizing support for the community [9] - Management remains confident in the strength of the asset quality profile despite a modest uptick in non-performing assets and net charge-offs [7][24] Other Important Information - The company closed one of the two branches added through the First Minnetonka City Bank acquisition due to proximity to other branches, with minimal deposit attrition post-merger [8] - The company has a strong capital position, with a CET1 ratio increasing slightly from 9.08% to 9.17% [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you unpack some of the deposit growth in the quarter? - Management noted that Q4 tends to be a seasonally high watermark for deposit growth, with a strong deposit pipeline overall [36][39] Question: Can you discuss the cadence of loan repricing? - Management indicated that loan repricing is well laid out and not concentrated in any one quarter, supporting the margin target [40][41] Question: What are the expectations for expenses in 2026? - Management expects expenses to grow in the high single digits, aligning with asset growth [42] Question: What is the company's appetite for potential acquisitions? - Management continues to engage in conversations with local bank owners and remains optimistic about future acquisition opportunities [55] Question: How does the company view the affordable housing vertical's growth potential? - Management expressed confidence in the affordable housing space, indicating it currently represents about 15% of the loan book and is expected to grow [59][60]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the central bank implemented a moderately accommodative monetary policy to maintain liquidity and support economic stability amid complex domestic and international financial conditions [1][2]. Monetary Policy and Liquidity Management - The central bank reduced the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points in May 2025, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market, and lowered the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points [2]. - Throughout 2025, the net liquidity injection from various monetary policy operations totaled 64,315 billion yuan, including 49,405 billion yuan from reverse repos and 11,610 billion yuan from medium-term lending facilities (MLF) [2]. - The weighted average of overnight repo rates decreased, with DR001 and R001 down by 19 basis points to 1.46% and 1.55%, respectively [2]. Bond Market Dynamics - In 2025, the bond issuance and net financing scale increased significantly, with a total of 54.69 trillion yuan in bonds issued, a 14% year-on-year increase, and net financing of 20.33 trillion yuan, up 31.8% [4]. - The secondary bond market shifted from a one-sided upward trend to a more volatile market, with the yield on various government bonds rising by 15 to 36 basis points compared to the previous year [4]. - The yield curve for 10-year government bonds showed a fluctuation range of approximately 31 basis points, indicating a narrowing compared to the previous year [4]. Interest Rate Swap Market - The interest rate swap curve steepened in 2025, with significant increases in long-term rates, such as a 29 basis point rise in the 5-year Shibor 3M swap price [5]. - Daily trading volume in the RMB interest rate swap market increased, with a total nominal principal of 44.3 trillion yuan and an 18.5% year-on-year growth in daily average transactions [6]. - The trading of standard bond forwards and interest rate options also saw substantial increases, with standard bond forwards up by 242.2% year-on-year [6].

Core Insights - The interest rate swap market experienced significant growth in 2025, with a nominal principal transaction volume reaching 43.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.3% [2] - The market is expected to face a range-bound fluctuation in 2026, influenced by the ongoing economic transition and moderate inflation recovery [12] Group 1: 2025 Interest Rate Swap Market Trading Conditions - The nominal principal of RMB interest rate swaps increased significantly, with 38.58 million transactions, marking a 17.0% year-on-year growth [2] - The trading volume for 1-year and below maturities accounted for 67.9% of total nominal principal, while transactions for maturities of 10 years and above surged by 241.5% year-on-year [2][3] - The market saw a rise in the number of participating institutions, with 871 entities registered for RMB interest rate swap business by the end of 2025, primarily consisting of non-legal person products [3] Group 2: 2025 Interest Rate Swap Market Trends Review - The interest rate swap market did not continue the downward trend of 2024, instead exhibiting an "N" shaped trajectory with rates rising, falling, and then rising again throughout the year [4] - The 1-year and 5-year FR007 swap rates ended the year at 1.4985% and 1.6116%, respectively, reflecting increases of 3 basis points and 18 basis points from the previous year [4][7] - The year was divided into four phases, with notable movements in interest rates influenced by various economic factors, including monetary policy adjustments and market sentiment [4][5][6][7] Group 3: 2026 Interest Rate Swap Market Outlook - The interest rate swap market is anticipated to experience a range-bound fluctuation, with economic fundamentals indicating a transition period and moderate inflation recovery [12] - Key factors to monitor include the economic recovery and government bond issuance pace, which could impact interest rate movements [13]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to supporting the development of Hong Kong as a major offshore RMB business hub, with several initiatives aimed at enhancing liquidity and market infrastructure for offshore RMB transactions [1][2]. Group 1: Liquidity Support - The PBOC supports the Hong Kong Monetary Authority in increasing the RMB business funding arrangement from 100 billion to 200 billion, providing more liquidity for the offshore market [2]. - The PBOC encourages Hong Kong RMB clearing banks to obtain RMB liquidity through various means, including issuing interbank certificates of deposit and account financing [2]. Group 2: Financial Market Connectivity - The PBOC aims to enhance financial market connectivity, enriching liquidity management and risk hedging tools for overseas investors by improving mechanisms like Bond Connect and Swap Connect [2]. - The PBOC plans to explore the use of RMB bonds as offshore eligible collateral and to promote the listing of RMB government bond futures in Hong Kong [2]. Group 3: Offshore RMB Government Bonds - The PBOC will work with relevant departments to increase the annual issuance of offshore RMB government bonds to meet the demand from foreign investors for quality RMB assets [2][3]. - A market-making mechanism for the offshore market will be established to enhance trading activity and improve RMB pricing capabilities [2]. Group 4: Gold Market Development - The PBOC supports the Shanghai Gold Exchange in participating in the construction of Hong Kong's gold clearing system, aiming to strengthen Hong Kong's position as an international gold trading center [3]. - The establishment of a delivery warehouse by the Shanghai Gold Exchange in Hong Kong has enriched the offshore RMB asset allocation tools [4]. Group 5: Cross-Border Use of RMB - The RMB's status as the second-largest trade financing currency and the third-largest payment currency globally has been further solidified, with its weight in the IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket ranking third [4]. - The Bond Connect has significantly enhanced Hong Kong's global hub function, with over 800 foreign institutions investing in the mainland bond market through the "Northbound" channel, holding a total of 810 billion RMB [3].

邹澜表示，香港已成为全球最大、最具影响力的人民币离岸业务枢纽。下一步，中国人民银行将坚定支 持并继续稳步推进香港离岸人民币市场建设。 一是增加人民币业务资金安排规模，为香港离岸市场提供更加充裕的流动性支持。为更好满足市场需 求，中国人民银行支持香港金管局将人民币业务资金安排规模由1000亿元增加至2000亿元。同时支持香 港人民币清算行通过发行同业存单、账户融资等多种方式，从境内市场获取不同期限人民币流动性，多 措并举提升香港离岸人民币流动性水平。 1月26日，中国人民银行副行长邹澜在第19届亚洲金融论坛上表示，近年来中国金融市场健康快速发 展，市场规模、深度与广度稳居全球前列，国际影响力持续增强。中国人民银行持续推进内地与香港金 融市场互联互通机制，全面覆盖债券、股票、货币衍生品、黄金等多个子市场，有效支持全球投资者通 过香港开展人民币投融资活动。 在债券市场方面，"债券通"显著提升香港的全球枢纽功能。截至2025年，已有超800家境外机构通过"北 向通"经由香港投资内地债券市场，持仓规模达8100亿元人民币，占境外机构持有中国债券总额的四分 之一；2025年全年交易额达9.7万亿元人民币，占比超60%。同 ...

1月26日，中国人民银行副行长邹澜在亚洲金融论坛上宣布，为更好满足市场需求，人民银行支持香港 金管局将人民币业务资金安排规模由1000亿元增加至2000亿元。同时支持香港人民币清算行通过发行同 业存单，账户融资等多种方式，从境内市场获取不同期限人民币流动性，多措并举提升香港离岸人民币 流动性水平。 邹澜表示，随着人民币在跨境交易中被更广泛地使用，其支付、投融资和储备功能不断提升。据统计， 人民币已成为全球第二大贸易融资货币和第三大支付货币，在国际货币基金组织特别提款权（SDR）货 币篮子中的权重位列第三。 对于货币市场发展，邹澜介绍，中国人民银行与香港金管局于2024年2月和10月共同推动在香港开展人 民币债券的离岸回购及跨境回购业务。目前，已有34家境外机构投资者参与离岸回购，规模达1191亿 元；46家新增境外机构投资者累计开展跨境回购1503亿元。与此同时，衍生品市场的互联互通正在持续 深化，为香港人民币资产提供了日益完善的风险管理工具。截至当前，已有87家境外投资者通过香港进 入境内衍生品市场，开展利率互换交易，累计名义本金总额超过9.9万亿元人民币。 邹澜指出，中国人民银行将继续推进金融市场互联互通 ...