首先是 广义货币M2 的数据。 上半年M2余额330.29万亿元，同比增长了8.3%，比上月高0.4个百分点，比上年同期高2.1个百分点。 简而言之，上半年社会上的钱，是越来越多。 另一组数据是 物价指数 。 CPI通Z回升至0.1%，环比稍微回暖了一点，比之前的负数好一点，但依然不高； PPI通Z为-3.6%，连续第3个月回落。 简而言之，市场上的钱是多了，但是物价依然没上涨，没有通Z。 这就引出了当下一个很重要的问题： 前两天，上半年的经济数据陆续公布。 多数人的关注点，都是GDP的增长数据，但我的关注点却是另外两组数据。 为什么市场上的钱越来越多，但物价没有上涨？资产价格也没有上涨呢？ 那么多的钱，没流向商品，又没流向资产。 那这些钱到底去了哪里？ 难道真的像很多人分析的那样，钱全部都被老百姓存起来了？ 恐怕没有那么简单。 为什么说放出来的钱全被老百姓存起来这个说法不够准确？ 因为 市场上新增的货币，主要是通过银行贷款放出来的。 而老百姓存的钱，不是工资收入就是财产收入，这些钱多数都是 存量货币 ，属于存量不是增量。 居民想要拿到这些新放出来的钱， 只能通过贷款。 但是上半年居民贷款余额只增加了1.17 ...

前两天，上半年的经济数据陆续公布。 多数人的关注点，都是GDP的增长数据，但我的关注点却是另外两组数据。 首先是 广义货币M2 的数据。 上半年M2余额330.29万亿元，同比增长了8.3%，比上月高0.4个百分点，比上年同期高2.1个百分点。 简而言之，上半年社会上的钱，是越来越多。 另一组数据是 物价指数 。 CPI通Z回升至0.1%，环比稍微回暖了一点，比之前的负数好一点，但依然不高； PPI通Z为-3.6%，连续第3个月回落。 简而言之，市场上的钱是多了，但是物价依然没上涨，没有通Z。 这就引出了当下一个很重要的问题： 为什么市场上的钱越来越多，但物价没有上涨？资产价格也没有上涨呢？ 那么多的钱，没流向商品，又没流向资产。 那这些钱到底去了哪里？ 难道真的像很多人分析的那样，钱全部都被老百姓存起来了？ 恐怕没有那么简单。 为什么说放出来的钱全被老百姓存起来这个说法不够准确？ 因为 市场上新增的货币，主要是通过银行贷款放出来的。 而老百姓存的钱，不是工资收入就是财产收入，这些钱多数都是 存量货币 ，属于存量不是增量。 居民想要拿到这些新放出来的钱， 只能通过贷款。 但是上半年居民贷款余额只增加了1.17 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the paradox of increasing money supply (M2) without corresponding inflation or asset price increases, raising questions about the flow of this new money and its implications for the economy [1][3]. Group 1: Money Supply and Inflation - M2 balance reached 330.29 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating an increase in the money supply [1]. - CPI rose slightly to 0.1%, while PPI fell to -3.6%, suggesting persistent low inflation despite the increase in money supply [1][3]. Group 2: Allocation of New Money - Approximately 30% of the new money has flowed to the government through bond financing, used for debt repayment and infrastructure investments [4]. - About 60% of the new money has gone to enterprises, primarily for production expansion, leading to potential overproduction and price deflation [5]. Group 3: Export and Currency Dynamics - Trade surplus reached 586.7 billion USD in the first half of 2025, while foreign currency deposits hit a record high of 824.87 billion USD [7][8]. - Many export companies are retaining their foreign currency earnings overseas instead of converting them to RMB, which limits domestic liquidity and complicates inflation dynamics [10][12]. Group 4: Capital Market Strategies - The article suggests that enhancing the capital market, particularly in Hong Kong, is crucial for attracting foreign and repatriated funds, with measures like allowing mainland investors to buy Hong Kong stocks [11]. - The anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and expectations of RMB appreciation may further incentivize capital to flow into Hong Kong's market [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that despite an increase in the money supply (M2), there is no corresponding rise in consumer prices (CPI) or asset prices, leading to questions about the flow of this new money [1][3] - M2 increased by 8.3% year-on-year, reaching 330.29 trillion yuan, while CPI rose slightly to 0.1% and PPI fell to -3.6% [1][3] - The majority of the new money is not reaching consumers directly, as only 7% of the M2 increase is reflected in household loans, indicating a disconnect between money supply and consumer spending [4][5] Group 2 - Approximately 30% of the new money is directed towards government financing through bonds, which is used for debt servicing and infrastructure investments [4] - About 60% of the new money flows to enterprises, primarily for production expansion, but this leads to overproduction and price deflation, preventing price increases [5] - The phenomenon of "capital outflow" occurs as export companies do not convert their foreign currency earnings back to RMB, instead investing abroad, which further complicates domestic monetary conditions [9][11] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the need for these funds to return to the domestic market, suggesting that enhancing the capital market, particularly in Hong Kong, could attract these funds back [10][12] - The Hong Kong market is positioned as a key area for attracting both foreign investment and repatriated funds, especially with the anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and expectations of RMB appreciation [10][12] - The article suggests that investors should consider allocating funds to quality assets in the Hong Kong market as a long-term investment strategy [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that despite an increase in the money supply (M2) and a slight recovery in CPI, there is no corresponding rise in commodity and asset prices, leading to questions about where the excess money is going [1][2] - M2 increased by 8.3% year-on-year, reaching 330.29 trillion yuan, while CPI rose to 0.1% and PPI fell to -3.6%, indicating a disconnect between money supply and price levels [1][2] - The majority of the new money supply is not reaching households, as only 1.17 trillion yuan in new loans were taken by residents, representing about 7% of the M2 increase [2] Group 2 - Approximately 30% of the new money is directed towards government financing through bonds, with some funds used for debt refinancing and infrastructure investments [2] - About 60% of the new money flows to enterprises, which primarily use it to expand production, but this can lead to overproduction as demand does not keep pace [3][4] - The phenomenon of "capital outflow" occurs when export companies do not convert their foreign currency earnings back to RMB, leading to a significant increase in foreign currency deposits in domestic banks [4] Group 3 - The increase in production without corresponding demand results in price deflation, making it difficult for commodity prices to rise [3][4] - The article suggests that the current strategy to attract capital back to the domestic market involves enhancing the Hong Kong capital market, which is seen as a key area for foreign and repatriated funds [4][5] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the appreciation of RMB may further drive capital out of dollar assets towards Hong Kong-listed quality companies [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that despite an increase in the money supply (M2) and a slight recovery in CPI, there is no corresponding rise in commodity and asset prices, leading to questions about where the excess money is going [1][2] - M2 increased by 8.3% year-on-year, reaching 330.29 trillion yuan, while CPI rose to 0.1% and PPI fell to -3.6%, indicating a disconnect between money supply and price levels [1][2] - The majority of the new money supply is not reaching households, as only 1.17 trillion yuan in new loans were taken by residents, representing about 7% of the M2 increase [2] Group 2 - Approximately 30% of the new money is directed to the government through bond financing, with some funds used for debt refinancing and infrastructure investments [2] - About 60% of the new money flows to enterprises, which primarily use it to expand production [2][3] - The current phase of production expansion is leading to overcapacity, causing price reductions and hindering price increases in both consumer goods and assets [3] Group 3 - The influx of new money is primarily directed towards production, resulting in supply exceeding demand, which contributes to deflationary pressures [3][4] - Exporting companies are retaining foreign currency earnings overseas instead of converting them to RMB, leading to a significant increase in foreign currency deposits in domestic banks [4] - The trade surplus reached 586.7 billion USD in the first half of the year, while foreign currency deposits increased by 146.3 billion USD, indicating that a substantial amount of foreign currency is not returning to the domestic economy [4] Group 4 - The challenge is to encourage the repatriation of these foreign funds, with past methods like mandatory currency conversion being less viable due to the large trade volume [4] - The strategy now focuses on enhancing the capital market, particularly the Hong Kong stock market, to attract these funds back [4][5] - The rise of digital assets and stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong aims to create a more attractive environment for both foreign and repatriated funds [4] Group 5 - Anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and expectations of RMB appreciation may drive funds away from USD assets towards Hong Kong stocks, particularly quality enterprises [5] - For investors, there is a long-term opportunity in Hong Kong stocks, and it is advised to align asset allocation with market trends rather than against them [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that despite an increase in the money supply (M2) and a slight recovery in CPI, there is no corresponding rise in commodity or asset prices, leading to questions about where the excess money is going [1][2] - M2 increased by 8.3% year-on-year, reaching 330.29 trillion yuan, while CPI rose to 0.1% and PPI fell to -3.6%, indicating a disconnect between money supply and price levels [1][2] - The majority of the new money supply is not reaching households, as only 1.17 trillion yuan in new loans were taken by residents, representing about 7% of the M2 increase [2] Group 2 - Approximately 30% of the new money is directed to the government through bond financing, with some funds used for debt refinancing and infrastructure investments [2] - About 60% of the new money flows to enterprises, which primarily use it to expand production, but this can lead to overproduction due to insufficient demand [3][4] - The phenomenon of "capital outflow" occurs when export companies do not convert their foreign currency earnings back to RMB, leading to a significant increase in foreign currency deposits in domestic banks [4] Group 3 - The increase in production without corresponding demand results in price deflation, making it difficult for commodity prices to rise [3][4] - The article suggests that a key task is to encourage the return of "outflowing" funds, with a focus on enhancing the capital market to attract these funds back [4] - The Hong Kong stock market is positioned as a primary destination for these funds, with measures being taken to facilitate capital inflow and create a wealth effect [4][5] Group 4 - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the anticipated appreciation of the RMB may drive funds away from dollar assets towards new value assets, particularly in the Hong Kong market [5] - The article highlights the potential long-term investment opportunities in high-quality Hong Kong-listed companies, suggesting that investors should align their asset allocation with market trends [5]