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强者恒强,金银闪亮:申万期货早间评论-20251222
申银万国期货研究· 2025-12-22 00:35
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the resilience of strong sectors in the market, highlighting significant sales in the duty-free sector in Sanya and the rebound in precious metals prices, particularly silver and copper, which reached historical highs [1][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - The State Council has called for proactive measures to ensure a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan, with Sanya's duty-free sales reaching 1.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 60% [1]. - The U.S. stock market saw gains, with major indices rising, particularly in the retail sector, while the banking sector lagged. The market's trading volume was 1.75 trillion yuan [2][12]. - The financing balance decreased by 3.32 billion yuan to 24.82556 billion yuan, indicating a tightening of liquidity [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1%, while the core CPI increased by 2.6%, also below expectations [3][20]. - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs in November, exceeding the forecast of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [3][20]. Group 3: Precious Metals - Silver prices continued to rise, supported by the lower-than-expected CPI, which provides room for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][20]. - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive due to factors such as the weakening of the U.S. dollar's credibility and central bank gold purchases [3][20]. Group 4: Aluminum Market - The night session saw Shanghai aluminum prices increase by 0.93%. The U.S. core CPI's slowest growth since early 2021 has raised questions about its reliability, but the impact on the aluminum market is expected to be limited [4][20]. - Short-term aluminum prices are expected to stabilize, with a long-term optimistic outlook as demand remains steady despite some signs of weakening in downstream operations [4][20]. Group 5: Industry News - The European Commission proposed to relax the 2035 ban on the sale of fuel vehicles, seen as a concession to the traditional automotive industry facing pressure [7]. - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) aims to take on significant national technological tasks, particularly in critical areas where other enterprises lack capability [8]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The European shipping index saw a slight decline, with the SCFI index at $1,533 per TEU, reflecting lower-than-expected market conditions [32].
白银再创新高:申万期货早间评论-20251218
申银万国期货研究· 2025-12-18 00:30
Group 1: Core Insights - The global silver market is experiencing a historic surge, with spot silver prices recently breaking through $65 and $66 per ounce, approaching $67 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of approximately 130%, which is double the increase in gold futures [1][2] - Factors contributing to this surge include supply-demand imbalance, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and increased capital inflow [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has room for further rate cuts of 50 to 100 basis points, as indicated by Governor Waller, due to a weakening job market and controlled inflation [1][5] Group 2: Key Commodities - **Silver**: The price of silver has reached new historical highs, supported by a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a $40 billion reserve management purchase, which improves market liquidity and boosts risk appetite [2][16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market for coking coal remains stable, with slight increases in construction and hot-rolled steel production. However, there is a downward trend in iron production, and the market is expected to stabilize due to seasonal demand [2][21] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass production is in a phase of inventory digestion, with a decrease in glass inventory and a slight increase in soda ash inventory. The market is closely monitoring potential changes in industry operations [3][15] Group 3: Financial Market Trends - The U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping by 1.16%. However, the A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy and capital flow [8] - The bond market saw a general increase, with the 10-year treasury yield falling to 1.8425%, indicating a continued loose monetary policy environment [9][10] Group 4: International and Domestic News - Internationally, the Federal Reserve's policy direction indicates a likelihood of maintaining interest rates in January, with a 77% probability of no change and a 21% chance of a 25 basis point cut [5] - Domestically, the Ministry of Finance reported a slight increase in public budget revenue, with tax revenue growing by 1.8% year-on-year [6]