当地时间1月9日，美股三大股指集体上涨，道指、标普500指数均创收盘新高。板块及个股方面，美股芯片股大涨，其中英特尔单日涨近11%，盘中股价 创阶段新高；美股大型科技股多数上涨，热门中概股多数走软。 据新华社消息，美国总统特朗普9日下午在白宫与大型石油企业高管举行会议。特朗普说会议将讨论"委内瑞拉的安全和人民"，称会议将有助于降低美国 油价，并阻止毒品和罪犯进入美国，其还表示，他领导的美国政府将决定哪些油企获准在委内瑞拉投资。 英特尔单日大涨近11% 道指、标普500指数创收盘新高 当地时间1月9日，美股三大股指集体上涨，道指、标普500指数齐创收盘新高。Wind数据显示，截至收盘，道指、纳指、标普500指数分别上涨0.48%、 0.81%、0.65%。从全周表现看，美股三大股指全周均涨逾1%。 美股芯片股迎普涨行情，英特尔股价大涨近11%，盘中一度创2024年3月以来新高，截至收盘报45.55美元/股，总市值合计2173亿美元；拉姆研究涨逾 8%，应用材料、阿斯麦均涨逾6%，三只股票盘中均创历史新高。 | 英特尔(INTEL) ( 日 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | INTC.O | ...

报告日期：2026 年 1 月 9 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 黄金成全球规模最大的储备资产 中共中央政治局常务委员会召开会议指出，"十五五"时期，我国发展环境面临 深刻复杂变化，工作任务艰巨繁重，要坚持好、运用好、发展好党的领导这一最 大优势，为中国式现代化建设提供根本保证。经报国务院批准，中国石油化工集 团与中国航空油料集团实施重组。美国上周初请失业金人数升至 20.8 万人，略 低于市场预期，仍处于历史低位区间。美国总统特朗普称，他预计美国将持续多 年"管理"委内瑞拉，并开采其巨大的石油储备。据世界黄金协会最新数据，若 假设 2025 年底央行持有的黄金储备规模不变，以年底价格计算，美国海外全球 官方黄金储备价值已达 3.93 万亿美元，正式超越海外官方持有的美债规模，后 者截至去年 10 月份的价值接近 3.88 万亿美元。 重点品种：黄金、碳酸锂、橡胶 贵金属：贵金属下探回升。从宏观面来看，近期公布的经济数据显示美国通胀压 力缓解，就业仍然疲软，美联储降息预期强化，全球同步处于降息周期，宽松的 流动性环境为贵金属的上涨提供有力支撑。对于黄金而言，美元信用动摇、央行 购金等逻辑支撑依然稳固，黄 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current gold market is experiencing a significant bull market driven by multiple factors, including central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and supply-demand imbalances, with gold prices reaching historical highs [2][4][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the global precious metals market saw unprecedented growth, with gold prices increasing by over 70%, silver by more than 170%, and platinum and palladium also reaching historical highs [4][6]. - By the end of 2025, gold prices surged to a record high of $4,549.96 per ounce, while silver prices exceeded $79 [5][6]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw gold prices fluctuate between $2,600 and $3,000 per ounce, with a notable 19.01% increase in March [3][5]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The primary drivers of the current bull market include expectations of loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, economic pressures in the U.S., persistent inflation, and geopolitical uncertainties [6][10]. - Central banks globally have significantly increased their gold purchases, with a net total of 634 tons in the first three quarters of the year, marking a 36% month-on-month increase in October [9][10]. - The shift in market dynamics has seen gold's pricing logic transition from traditional models based on dollar depreciation and interest rates to a new paradigm focused on currency credit reassessment and central bank buying [10][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, the precious metals market is expected to experience structural differentiation rather than a uniform rise, with gold likely to maintain support from ongoing central bank purchases and potential interest rate cuts [12][13]. - Silver and platinum are anticipated to show stronger price elasticity and upward potential due to persistent supply-demand gaps, despite challenges in industrial demand [11][12]. - The market sentiment is currently high, with precious metal prices at historical peaks, necessitating cautious investment strategies to manage potential volatility [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent performance of precious metals and energy commodities, noting that gold, silver, and copper have reached historical highs, while oil prices have also increased due to geopolitical tensions and supply dynamics [1][2][3]. Precious Metals - International gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, with gold rising over 2% and silver increasing by more than 3% [1][2]. - The U.S. November CPI was reported at 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1%, and the core CPI at 2.6%, below the anticipated 3%, which raises questions about inflation but provides room for potential interest rate cuts [2][20]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 64,000 jobs, better than the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, supporting the expectation of continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, which is bullish for precious metals [2][20]. Energy Commodities - Oil prices have seen a significant increase, with the SC night market rising by 2.01%. Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil exports reached 7.1 million barrels in October, the highest in two and a half years, up from 6.46 million barrels in September [3][14]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding potential sanctions on Russia's energy sector, are influencing oil prices, although the overall trend remains uncertain [3][14]. Agricultural Products - The palm oil market is experiencing upward pressure due to Malaysia's reduction of export tax rates, although inventory levels remain high, and a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance is not expected until December [29]. - The soybean market is under pressure from slow export sales and strong production expectations in South America, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean prices [28]. Financial Markets - The U.S. stock indices have shown an upward trend, with significant market activity and a financing balance increase, indicating a potential long-term bullish trend supported by favorable policies and liquidity [11]. - The bond market is experiencing a general decline, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.845%, reflecting a mixed economic outlook and expectations of future monetary policy adjustments [12][13]. Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown a strong upward movement, with a reported increase of 8.77% in the EC contract, reflecting positive market sentiment and expectations for price stability in the near future [32][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Bullish on stock indices (IH, IF, IC, IM), treasury bonds (TS), rubber, rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, lithium carbonate, cotton, and corn; bearish on crude oil, methanol, apples, and container shipping to Europe [6] 2. Core Views - A - shares are expected to form a long - term and slow - rising bull market pattern with the resonance of "policy support, capital escort, and industrial drive". The expected December interest rate cut by the Fed and capital market reforms will further strengthen this foundation [2][12] - The downward trend of CPI provides room for interest rate cuts, and weak employment data supports the Fed to continue cutting rates, boosting precious metal prices. The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged [3][20] - The short - term trend of aluminum prices is expected to continue consolidation, while a long - term optimistic outlook is maintained, considering supply and demand factors and the approaching holidays [4][23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Main News on the Day 3.1.1. International News - The EU Commission proposed to relax the 2035 "ban on the sale of fuel - powered vehicles" requirements, seen as a concession to the traditional European automotive industry and a step back in climate policy [7] 3.1.2. Domestic News - State - owned enterprises will take on national science and technology tasks, aiming to make breakthroughs in "neck - choking" areas and supply "root technologies" and key common technologies [8] 3.1.3. Industry News - Three government departments jointly issued the "Internet Platform Price Behavior Rules" to promote the innovation and healthy development of the platform economy [9] 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.88%, ICE Brent crude oil increased 1.41%, London silver climbed 2.26%, and other varieties showed different degrees of price changes from December 18th to 19th [11] 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1. Financial - **Stock Indices**: The long - term and slow - rising bull market pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated. The Fed's expected December interest rate cut and positive policy signals will boost market risk appetite [2][12] - **Treasury Bonds**: The price of short - term treasury bond futures is supported by the expectation of loose policies, despite factors such as the rise in US and Japanese bond yields [13][14] 3.3.2. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The overall downward trend of crude oil is hard to reverse, with a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventory and an increase in gasoline and distillate inventories [15] - **Methanol**: Short - term methanol is expected to be weak and volatile, affected by factors such as the decline in CTO/MTO开工率 and the change in coastal inventory [16] - **Rubber**: Short - term rubber prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation due to supply and demand factors [17] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures are running weakly. Short - term attention should be paid to the cost trend and the digestion rhythm of supply and demand [18] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. The focus of market trading is shifting to the May contract [19] 3.3.3. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, supported by factors such as the Fed's possible interest rate cuts and the weakening of the US dollar's credit [3][20] - **Copper**: The copper market is facing a supply - demand gap due to supply disruptions. Attention should be paid to factors such as the US dollar and downstream demand [21] - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc concentrate is temporarily tight, and the overall supply - demand difference is not obvious. Market sentiment and related factors need to be monitored [22] - **Aluminum**: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to consolidate, and a long - term optimistic view is maintained, considering supply, demand, and holiday factors [4][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Although there are signs of a slowdown in inventory reduction, the overall trend is still upward, and attention should be paid to factors such as production resumption and demand verification [24][25] 3.3.4. Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a significant decline, the double - coking market is expected to stabilize, and attention should be paid to factors such as iron - water production and downstream inventory [26] - **Steel**: The short - term steel price has the potential to rebound, but the medium - term trend is weak, affected by supply, demand, and macro - expectations [27] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term iron ore prices are expected to be slightly stronger and volatile, considering factors such as shipping, inventory, and steel - mill demand [28] 3.3.5. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meals**: Domestic soybean meal is expected to continue range - bound due to factors such as the slow US soybean exports and sufficient future supply [29] - **Oils and Fats**: Short - term oil prices are expected to be weak and volatile, affected by factors such as palm oil export policies and inventory pressure [30][31] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar shows signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to the impact of supply and cost factors on market sentiment [32] - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are supported by factors such as fast sales progress, possible reduction in planting area, and improved Sino - US relations [33] 3.3.6. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The freight rate of the 02 contract may face adjustment pressure as the Spring Festival approaches and the shipping schedule changes [34]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyou Securities indicates that gold is expected to be the standout performer in 2025, driven by a shift from U.S. Treasury bonds. Gold prices are currently stable above $4,000 per ounce, while silver has seen a higher percentage increase compared to gold due to liquidity factors [1]. Group 1: 2025 Market Outlook for Precious Metals - The precious metals market in 2025 is anticipated to unfold in two phases: the first phase involves a diversified asset allocation driven by tariff expectations from the Trump administration, leading to a correlation between U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices, with London gold surpassing $3,500 per ounce in April 2025 [2]. - In the second phase, starting in mid-August, a rate cut cycle is expected as the market begins to price in the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, resulting in significant inflows into Western gold ETFs. During this phase, gold is projected to break through $4,300 per ounce, setting a new historical high, while silver is expected to exceed $55 per ounce, outperforming gold and leading to a decrease in the gold-silver ratio [2]. Group 2: 2026 Market Outlook for Gold - The outlook for gold in 2026 suggests continued upward momentum, potentially exceeding expectations due to several factors: the perceived weakening of U.S. dollar credibility following the U.S. National Security Strategy report, which acknowledges the limitations of U.S. power in a multipolar world, thereby reinforcing gold's role as an alternative to U.S. Treasury bonds [3]. - The likelihood of secondary inflation is increasing, with expectations of further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which could drive up gold prices as inflation metrics rise alongside persistently high long-term Treasury yields [3]. - Historical trends indicate that following rate cuts, there is typically an influx into ETFs in the U.S. and Europe, which, combined with dovish expectations and the Fed's balance sheet expansion, is likely to encourage continued investment in gold ETFs [3]. Group 3: 2026 Market Outlook for Silver - Silver is expected to continue its upward trajectory in 2026, primarily due to its supply-demand imbalance, which has persisted for five consecutive years, making it potentially stronger than copper despite a large existing market [4]. - The anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are expected to drive silver prices higher, as the metal has shown greater elasticity in response to market conditions, particularly following its outperformance against gold after April 2025 [4]. - Continuous supply shortages are likely to create tension in the physical market, with some countries considering silver as a reserve asset, thereby enhancing its monetary attributes and increasing its investment value [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyou Securities indicates that gold is expected to be the standout investment in 2025, driven by a shift from U.S. Treasury bonds. Gold prices have stabilized above $4,000 per ounce, with silver experiencing higher percentage gains due to liquidity factors [1][2]. Investment Highlights - In 2025, the precious metals market was characterized by two phases: the first phase involved diversification driven by tariff expectations under the Trump administration, leading to a correlation between U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices, with gold surpassing $3,500 per ounce in April 2025 [2]. - The second phase began in mid-August with expectations of interest rate cuts, resulting in significant inflows into Western gold ETFs and a surge in gold prices, which reached over $4,300 per ounce, while silver exceeded $55 per ounce, outperforming gold during this phase [2][3]. 2026 Market Outlook - For 2026, gold is anticipated to continue its upward trend, supported by a potential decline in U.S. dollar credibility and ongoing supply-demand pressures in the long-term Treasury market, reinforcing gold's role as an alternative asset to U.S. Treasuries [2][3]. - The likelihood of a second wave of inflation is increasing, with the Federal Reserve's rate cuts expected to elevate gold prices, as high long-term Treasury yields suggest inflationary pressures [3]. - Continued inflows into ETFs are expected, as historically, such inflows follow interest rate cuts, and the Fed's balance sheet expansion is likely to suppress short-term rates, encouraging investment in gold ETFs [3]. Silver Outlook - Silver's outperformance relative to gold post-April 2025 is attributed to its recovery in risk appetite and its physical trading attributes, with ongoing supply-demand imbalances expected to strengthen its market position [3]. - The anticipated continued rise in silver prices is supported by declining inventories and its increasing status as a reserve asset in certain countries, which enhances its monetary attributes and investment appeal [3].

Group 1: Core Insights - The global silver market is experiencing a historic surge, with spot silver prices recently breaking through $65 and $66 per ounce, approaching $67 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of approximately 130%, which is double the increase in gold futures [1][2] - Factors contributing to this surge include supply-demand imbalance, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and increased capital inflow [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has room for further rate cuts of 50 to 100 basis points, as indicated by Governor Waller, due to a weakening job market and controlled inflation [1][5] Group 2: Key Commodities - **Silver**: The price of silver has reached new historical highs, supported by a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a $40 billion reserve management purchase, which improves market liquidity and boosts risk appetite [2][16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market for coking coal remains stable, with slight increases in construction and hot-rolled steel production. However, there is a downward trend in iron production, and the market is expected to stabilize due to seasonal demand [2][21] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass production is in a phase of inventory digestion, with a decrease in glass inventory and a slight increase in soda ash inventory. The market is closely monitoring potential changes in industry operations [3][15] Group 3: Financial Market Trends - The U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping by 1.16%. However, the A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy and capital flow [8] - The bond market saw a general increase, with the 10-year treasury yield falling to 1.8425%, indicating a continued loose monetary policy environment [9][10] Group 4: International and Domestic News - Internationally, the Federal Reserve's policy direction indicates a likelihood of maintaining interest rates in January, with a 77% probability of no change and a 21% chance of a 25 basis point cut [5] - Domestically, the Ministry of Finance reported a slight increase in public budget revenue, with tax revenue growing by 1.8% year-on-year [6]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market continues to show strong performance, driven by various factors including expectations of monetary policy changes from the Federal Reserve and heightened geopolitical uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have recently broken through a two-week consolidation range, returning above $4,300 per ounce, with a notable increase in market support [2]. - Analysts expect gold prices to continue rising, with potential upward movement influenced by a weaker dollar and increased market risk aversion [2]. - Upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data are anticipated to significantly impact economic outlook and precious metals market trends, with expectations of 40,000 new jobs and a stable unemployment rate of 4.4% [2][3]. Group 2: Platinum and Palladium Market Insights - Platinum and palladium prices have surged, with platinum futures rising by 7% and palladium by 4.73%, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions and supply constraints [1][4]. - The supply side remains tight, with high leasing rates for platinum and palladium indicating ongoing supply pressure [4]. - The rise in silver prices has also positively influenced platinum and palladium, as increased demand for industrial metals drives investor interest [4]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Precious Metals - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, supported by factors such as weakened dollar credibility and continued central bank gold purchases [4]. - Analysts predict that gold prices will experience a gradual upward trend, despite short-term fluctuations [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant surge in gold prices, driven by various factors including geopolitical tensions and central bank purchases, which has led to a notable impact on global markets and U.S. debt dynamics [1][3][4] Group 2 - The recent spike in gold prices is characterized as a long-term trend, with a 27% increase in 2024 and a further 14% rise in early 2025, marking a historical breakthrough above $3000 per ounce [1][3] - The driving forces behind this gold price increase include a global central bank gold buying spree, a weakening U.S. dollar, and rising concerns over the U.S. economy, with gold being viewed as a safe haven asset [3][4] Group 3 - The U.S. holds approximately 8000 tons of gold reserves, valued at over $1 trillion, which has improved its balance sheet significantly due to the recent price surge [4] - The rising gold prices are expected to indirectly alleviate U.S. debt pressures through mechanisms such as dilution effects, favorable financing conditions, and potential support for the dollar's status [4] Group 4 - The interaction between gold prices and U.S. reserves has triggered a "butterfly effect" across global markets, impacting currencies, commodities, and stock markets [5][6] - The U.S. dollar index has faced downward pressure due to rising gold prices, while other currencies like the Chinese yuan have seen temporary rebounds [5] - The commodity market has shown mixed reactions, with silver prices rising significantly, while oil prices are influenced more by geopolitical factors than gold [5][6]