1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The marginal tightening of funds this week may be due to the misalignment between exogenous disturbances and central bank injections. Despite the low excess reserve ratio in December and the large - scale net withdrawal of OMO in the first week of January, the funds remained relatively loose, possibly because of the abundant non - bank liquidity. Although the central bank did not announce a reserve requirement ratio cut this week, it is likely to take measures to maintain liquidity. A rate cut condition is maturing, and a reserve requirement ratio cut is likely to be implemented in March. It is expected that the DR001 central value in January will be around 1.3% - 1.35% [4][29][45]. - Next week, the reverse repurchase maturity scale will rise significantly, the government bond payment pressure will increase, and the tax - period capital demand will further increase. However, considering the central bank's intention to guide the overnight interest rate to run near the policy interest rate, the probability of a significant tightening of the capital market is limited [67]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Money Market 3.1.1 This Week's Capital Market Review - OMO had a net injection of 81.28 billion yuan this week. The 6 - month repurchase expired on Tuesday, and the central bank over - renewed 30 billion yuan on Thursday. After the large - scale net withdrawal of OMO and government bond payments after the New Year, the inter - bank water level dropped significantly. The government bond payments were mainly concentrated on Monday, and the repurchase renewal was delayed, causing the funds to tighten marginally in the first half of the week. After the repurchase was implemented on Thursday, the funds gradually loosened, and the DR001 fell to 1.32% on Friday [3][16]. - The trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased in the middle of the week and recovered in the second half. The average daily trading volume increased by 1.12 trillion yuan to 8.62 trillion yuan compared with last week. The overall scale of pledged repurchase decreased first and then increased, but it was still below 13 trillion yuan on Friday. The net lending of large - scale banks and small - and medium - sized banks decreased first and then increased. The net lending of non - bank institutions increased first and then decreased, and the net borrowing maintained a shock. The capital gap index rose to - 363.9 billion on Wednesday and then gradually fell to - 762 billion on Friday, slightly higher than last week but still below the neutral level [3][23]. - The marginal tightening of funds may be due to the misalignment between exogenous disturbances and central bank injections. The decline in government deposits in December was only 1 trillion yuan, resulting in an excess reserve ratio of only 1.6%, lower than expected. The large - scale net withdrawal of OMO in the first week of January and government bond payments may have reduced the excess reserve ratio to 0.9%. The government bond payment and repurchase expiration at the beginning of this week, combined with equity market fluctuations and new stock subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange, led to a temporary increase in DR001, but the central bank's attitude did not change, and the funds loosened again after the repurchase on Thursday [4][29][35]. 3.1.2 Next Week's Capital Outlook - This week, the actual net payment of government bonds was - 4.85 billion yuan. Next week, the payment scale of government bonds is expected to be about 20 billion yuan, and the local bond issuance scale of 5 regions is 231.6 billion yuan. Due to the decrease in the maturity volume, the overall net payment scale of government bonds will rise to 246.5 billion yuan [46]. - As of now, 11 regions have issued local bonds worth 424.1 billion yuan in January. The issuance of new general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing bonds is 21.6 billion yuan, 174.6 billion yuan, and 227.9 billion yuan respectively, with replacement bonds worth 170.4 billion yuan. The overall issuance of local bonds in January is roughly in line with the plan. It is expected that the government bond issuance scale in January, February, and March 2026 will be 2.12 trillion yuan, 1.81 trillion yuan, and 2.77 trillion yuan respectively, and the net financing scale will be 1.22 trillion yuan, 1.05 trillion yuan, and 1.26 trillion yuan respectively. The cumulative net financing scale of government bonds in the first quarter may be lower than that in the same period of 2025 [55][62]. - Next week, the 7 - day reverse repurchase maturity scale will increase significantly, the government bond payment pressure will increase, and the tax - period capital demand will further increase. Although the new stock subscription on the Beijing Stock Exchange may have a certain impact on the exchange capital price, it is generally controllable. Considering the central bank's attitude, the probability of a significant tightening of the capital market is limited [67]. 3.2 Inter - Bank Certificates of Deposit - The 1 - year Shibor rate rose 0.4 BP to 1.65% compared with January 9. The secondary rate of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit fell 0.8 BP to 1.63% compared with last week [71]. - This week, the increase in the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit was less than the maturity scale, with a net repayment of 28.04 billion yuan, an increase of 12.27 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing scale of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks was - 14.03 billion yuan, - 20.43 billion yuan, 5.97 billion yuan, and - 0.07 billion yuan respectively. The 1 - year certificates of deposit were still the largest issuance variety, but the issuance proportion decreased by 15 percentage points to 30% compared with last week [74]. - The issuance success rates of inter - bank certificates of deposit of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks all increased compared with last week. Except for the relatively low issuance success rate of joint - stock banks, the issuance success rates of other banks were close to the average level in recent years. The issuance spread of 1 - year certificates of deposit between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed [75][78]. - The new - caliber relative supply - demand strength index of certificates of deposit dropped to 28.7%, a decrease of 13.6 percentage points compared with last week, mainly due to the decreased willingness of money market funds to increase their holdings of certificates of deposit, especially the increased willingness to reduce holdings in the secondary market. However, this decline is seasonal, and the current index is roughly the same as in previous years [86][89]. 3.3 Bill Market This week, the bill interest rate declined overall. As of January 16, the 3 - month and 6 - month bill interest rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks decreased by 7 BP and 9 BP respectively compared with January 9, to 1.43% and 1.13% [94][96]. 3.4 Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - This week, the sentiment of interest - rate bonds was strong, and the yields declined slightly overall, while the credit was generally stable [99]. - Large - scale banks tended to increase their bond holdings overall, with an increased willingness to hold inter - bank certificates of deposit, 1 - 3 - year and 10 - year policy financial bonds, and a decreased willingness to hold short - term commercial paper. However, they tended to reduce their holdings of 1 - 3 - year treasury bonds and 5 - year policy financial bonds [99]. - The overall willingness of trading - type institutions to reduce bond holdings decreased. Among them, the willingness of securities companies, other institutions, and products to reduce holdings decreased, while fund companies tended to increase their holdings [99]. - The overall willingness of allocation - type institutions to increase bond holdings decreased significantly. Among them, the willingness of small - and medium - sized banks to increase holdings decreased significantly, while the willingness of insurance companies and wealth management products to increase holdings increased [99].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The adjustment of the 14 - day reverse repurchase tender method is beneficial for the decline of cross - quarter funds prices. The current institution's cross - quarter progress is slow, and the central bank's adjustment shows its intention to support cross - quarter liquidity, which helps to stabilize the cross - quarter funds price. Although this week's funds were tightened due to multiple factors, it cannot be inferred that the central bank's attitude has changed. Next week, the overall liquidity pressure is expected to ease marginally [3][26][29]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Money Market 3.1.1 This Week's Funds Review - The central bank's OMO had a net injection of 5623 billion yuan this week, and a 6000 - billion - yuan 6M outright reverse repurchase was carried out on Monday, with a monthly net injection of 3000 billion yuan. A 1500 - billion - yuan 1M treasury cash fixed - deposit operation was conducted on Wednesday, with a winning bid rate of 1.78%, the same as the previous value. Affected by factors such as the tax period and government bond payments, funds were marginally tightened. DR001 once rose to 1.51% on Thursday and only eased significantly on Friday [3][8]. - The trading volume of pledged repurchase fluctuated and declined this week, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 0.33 trillion yuan to 7.16 trillion yuan. The net lending of large banks decreased in the first half of the week and rebounded above 4 trillion yuan in the second half. The net lending of city commercial banks and joint - stock banks decreased on Monday and recovered in the middle of the week but declined again on Friday. The net lending of non - banks increased significantly on Wednesday and then decreased slightly, while the net borrowing of non - banks increased in the second half of the week. The funds gap index first rose and then fell [3][16]. - The September cross - quarter progress of inter - bank institutions and exchanges was slow, with the overall market cross - quarter progress at the lowest level in recent years. The excess reserve ratio in August decreased by 0.1 pct to 1.1%, lower than the expected 1.4%, mainly due to the unexpected increase of 3370 billion yuan in government deposits [3][20][22]. - This week, funds tightened marginally due to multiple exogenous disturbances, especially the freezing of 8512 billion yuan by the new stock Jinhuaxincai on the Beijing Stock Exchange, which caused a significant increase in GC001 on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, funds eased on Friday, and the average values of DR001 and DR007 since September were 1.39% and 1.48% respectively, similar to those since Q3, so it cannot be inferred that the central bank's attitude has changed [3][26]. 3.1.2 Next Week's Funds Outlook - Next week, the treasury bond payment scale is expected to be 3320 billion yuan, and the local bond issuance scale of 12 regions is 1961 billion yuan, with an actual payment scale of 2422 billion yuan. The net payment scale of government bonds will decrease from 4030 billion yuan this week to 908 billion yuan, but the single - day net payment on Monday will reach 2525 billion yuan [3][33]. - The report maintains the assumption that the treasury bond issuance in September is 1.49 trillion yuan with a net financing of about 7300 billion yuan, and the local bond issuance is 9000 billion yuan with a net financing of 4900 billion yuan. It is estimated that the government bond issuance scale in September is about 2.39 trillion yuan, with a net financing scale of about 1.22 trillion yuan [3][41]. - It is estimated that the treasury bond issuance scale in October is about 1.25 trillion yuan, with a net financing scale of about 2700 billion yuan, and the local bond issuance scale is 7100 billion yuan, with a net financing scale of 4600 billion yuan. The overall government bond issuance scale in October is expected to be about 1.96 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 7300 billion yuan [3][44]. - Next week, the maturity scale of reverse repurchases will rise to 18268 billion yuan, and there will be a 3000 - billion - yuan MLF maturity on Thursday. The main exogenous disturbances to the funds will be concentrated in the first half of the week. Although the demand for cross - quarter funds will increase in the second half of the week, the central bank will stabilize funds through 14 - day reverse repurchase injections, MLF is likely to be renewed in excess, and the end - of - quarter fiscal expenditure may also provide some hedging. It is expected that the liquidity pressure will ease marginally compared to this week [3][52]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - This week, the 1Y Shibor rate rose 0.6BP to 1.67%, and the secondary rate of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit rose 0.5BP to 1.68% [53]. - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased while the maturity scale decreased this week, with a net financing of 903 billion yuan. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 2469 billion yuan, - 843 billion yuan, - 529 billion yuan, and - 47 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 1Y certificates of deposit rose to 23%, and the 3M certificates of deposit had the highest issuance proportion at 36%. Next week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit is about 8941 billion yuan, an increase of 881 billion yuan compared to this week [57]. - The issuance success rates of state - owned banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks increased compared to last week, while that of joint - stock banks decreased. Except for the relatively low issuance success rate of state - owned banks, the others were above the average level in recent years. The issuance spread of 1Y certificates of deposit between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed [58]. 3.3 Bill Market This week, bill rates fluctuated and rose. The rates of 3M and 6M national stock bills rose 10BP and 7BP respectively to 1.25% and 0.86% [4]. 3.4 Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - This week, bond yields fluctuated at a high level, and the spreads of credit and Tier 2 perpetual bonds were relatively stable. Large banks' willingness to increase bond holdings decreased significantly, especially for medium - and short - term treasury bonds. Their willingness to reduce holdings of 3 - 7 - year policy financial bonds and local bonds increased, and they tended to reduce holdings of Tier 2 perpetual bonds [4]. - Trading - type institutions tended to increase bond holdings, including fund companies and securities companies. The willingness of other products to increase holdings also rose, while that of other institutions decreased. Allocation - type institutions tended to reduce bond holdings. Rural commercial banks tended to reduce bond holdings, the insurance companies' willingness to increase holdings decreased, and the wealth management products' willingness to increase holdings was basically the same as last week [4].