撇开目前的技术调整不谈，笔者认为黄金正在经历一次再定价过程。 高市早苗如愿以偿，就任日本第104任首相，却意外让黄金价格急跌。高市上台充满悬念，"高市交 易"最近才发力，日元对美元汇率跌至152。美元指数上涨，成为压垮黄金的最后一根稻草，黄金白银价 格出现了一轮坍塌式下挫，恐慌指数也回落到16。经过一轮去杠杆，资金重回股市，全球股市齐涨，日 经225领涨。美债略有下跌，静待美联储降息一码。 黄金正在经历一次再定价过程 黄金价格进入调整期，上周初伦敦金价每盎司急跌近300点，既触发了市场恐慌，也带出金价见顶的言 论。金价在六个星期内暴涨超过1000点，出现技术性回调再正常不过。笔者认为，这是一场迟来的调 整，市场因为FOMO（踏空恐惧）而推迟了早该发生的调整。美元汇率上升、地缘政治缓和以及杠杆盘 退出，带来了这轮急跌。 今年以来金价上涨了57%，是各大类资产中表现最突出的。其背后主要逻辑是，黄金作为另类资产在资 产配置中的地位明显上升。央行增加了黄金配置，作为对美元、美债风险的对冲;基金增加了黄金ETF 的配置，作为对美国财政赤字和地缘政治风险的对冲；消费者增加了黄金配置，作为对通货膨胀和法币 失信的对冲。美联 ...

Group 1 - The recent appointment of Fumio Kishida as Japan's Prime Minister has led to a significant drop in gold prices, attributed to a stronger US dollar and a decline in geopolitical tensions [1][2] - Gold prices have experienced a sharp decline after a substantial increase of over 1000 points in six weeks, indicating a normal technical correction following a period of rapid growth [1][2] - Year-to-date, gold prices have risen by 57%, outperforming other asset classes, driven by increased allocations from central banks, funds, and consumers seeking to hedge against inflation and currency devaluation [1][2] Group 2 - Central banks, once sellers of gold due to its lack of yield, are now the primary buyers, reflecting a loss of confidence in fiat currencies [2][3] - The revaluation of gold is underway as investors seek alternatives to US Treasuries, which are losing their status as a zero-risk asset due to rising US government deficits and geopolitical tensions [2][3] - The last significant revaluation of gold occurred in the early 2000s with the introduction of gold ETFs, which made gold investment more accessible and supported a bull market [2][3] Group 3 - Despite rising policy interest rates from various central banks, the era of credit expansion is not over, as countries continue to pursue deficit-driven growth [3][4] - Kishida's government is expected to maintain fiscal expansion policies, potentially increasing the fiscal deficit while supporting economic growth [4][5] - The Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates soon, as the current political landscape suggests a preference for a weaker yen to support economic stability [5]

上周坐上职业生涯过山车的政治人物，非高市早苗莫属。这位极右翼自民党人，在党魁选举中从第一轮 排名第三到第二轮拔得头筹，冲上了政治生涯的巅峰，一时间剑指首相大位。然而，她在组建执政联盟 上却遭遇了滑铁卢，与自民党合作26年的公明党宣布退出筹组联盟谈判。和"高市交易"有关的资产价格 直接坍塌。 赤字财政不结束，量化宽松就不会真正结束，长远看金价就没有涨完。 上周充满了戏剧性。高市早苗夺得日本自民党总裁一职，成为下一任日本首相似乎板上钉钉，却忽然传 来执政联盟公明党退出的消息。"高市交易"先暴涨，后暴跌。美股在FOMO（fear of missing out，踏空 恐惧）情绪下大涨，接下来因为中美贸易纠纷再起，美国总统特朗普威胁再加100%关税而大挫。以色 列与哈马斯达成停火协议，特朗普却失意诺贝尔和平奖。虚拟货币纷纷创下历史新高后，因杠杆交易崩 塌而暴跌。 债市也受到市场情绪和流动性的冲击，不过价格波动稍微小一点，市场对政策利率走势的预期没有大的 改变。美元指数受到高市交易和贸易冲突的双重挤压而走强，黄金价格再破4000美元大关，白银一度逼 近50点位。地缘政治因素将恐慌指数拉回到20点以上，能源价格走弱。 自媒 ...