证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 震荡期的破局之路 [Table_Title2] 类权益周报 [Table_Summary] ►回顾：A 股行情独树一帜 11 月 3-7 日，类权益行情震荡反弹。截至 2025 年 11 月 7 日， 万得全 A 收盘价为 6386.56，较 10 月 31 日上涨 0.63%；中证 转债同期上涨 0.86%，偏债型转债估值有所拉伸。 在全球权益市场走弱的情况下，A 股却迎来反弹，这与结构风 险的改善相关。与全球市场受 AI 估值泡沫担忧、美元走强、 美国政府停摆等宏观因素的影响不同，A 股行情掣肘是市场内 部的结构风险。11 月 5 日，成交集中度（前 5%成交额占全市 成交额比例）降至 40%附近，明显低于 45%。在牛市环境下， 结构风险稍有改善，市场则明显反弹，形成亮眼行情。 ►策略：保持震荡思维，等待增量信号 今年 9 月初至 11 月初的走势，与 2014 年 12 月至 2015 年 2 月 的行情极为相似。两者均为大涨之后的震荡期，且行情节奏都 是调整-反弹的循环。而在这段震荡之 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a recovery in overseas markets, with US stocks rebounding and Asian markets, including Japan and South Korea, showing positive trends. The domestic market remains strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index rebounding above 4000 points. The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.08 trillion yuan, an increase of 181.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][2][4] - The report notes that the concentration of trading has decreased to 40.59%, indicating a moderate level of structural risk. However, this level is still above the historical low of 35%, suggesting that while the market is rebounding, the underlying risks remain [2][3] - The report discusses the potential for a Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) scenario if the market can break through previous highs, which would indicate a strong positive sentiment among investors. The A-share market's ability to surpass the highs of October 9 and October 29 will be a critical test of this sentiment [3][4] Group 2 - In the Hong Kong market, significant inflows into Hang Seng Tech ETFs were observed, with net inflows of 12 billion yuan into the Hang Seng Tech ETF on November 5. This indicates a positive sentiment towards technology stocks [4][6] - The report mentions that the bond market is under pressure due to strong stock market performance, with long-term interest rates adjusting. The yield on 10-year and 30-year bonds rose slightly, reflecting market volatility [5][6] - The commodity market has seen a rebound after two days of declines, with precious metals and industrial metals showing gains. The report notes a significant net inflow of 6.4 billion yuan into the commodity index, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant revival in the IPO market, indicating a renewed confidence in the primary market driven by recent successful listings and increased investment activity [2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Activity - The primary market is experiencing a surge, with seven companies listed on the same day, signaling a strong recovery in investor confidence [4][6]. - Investment firms are actively engaged in both supporting portfolio companies and exploring new projects, reflecting a busy atmosphere in the venture capital sector [3][6]. - The number of new private equity and venture capital funds registered in September reached 557, marking a 51.4% increase month-over-month and an 84.4% increase year-over-year, indicating a robust recovery in fundraising activities [9]. Group 2: Exit Opportunities - In the first three quarters of 2025, 161 Chinese companies went public, a 25.8% increase year-over-year, with total financing amounting to approximately RMB 193.73 billion, a 102.4% increase [10]. - The A-share market saw 78 companies listed, a 13.0% increase, while the overseas market had 83 listings, a 40.7% increase, showcasing a significant rebound in exit opportunities for investors [10]. - The renewed focus on Hong Kong as a viable exit strategy has improved the outlook for venture capital and private equity firms [10]. Group 3: Investment Trends - There is a noticeable shift in investment focus towards "future industries," particularly in sectors like robotics, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors, with a significant increase in financing events [13]. - The AI sector saw a dramatic rise in financing events, from 188 in Q1 2024 to 435 in Q3 2025, reflecting a 20.8% quarter-over-quarter growth and a 99% year-over-year increase [13]. - The year 2025 is being recognized as the "commercialization year for humanoid robots," with several projects reporting substantial order volumes, indicating strong market demand [14]. Group 4: Talent Market Dynamics - The demand for investment professionals in AI and robotics has surged, with recruitment processes accelerating significantly, highlighting the industry's growth [15]. - The return of long-term capital allocation and confidence from foreign LPs is closely tied to clear exit expectations, which are crucial for sustaining market momentum [15]. Group 5: Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment is shifting from a cautious approach to a more aggressive investment strategy, with investors feeling more confident in identifying and seizing opportunities [12][13]. - The article emphasizes the importance of a healthy cycle of investment, exit, and reinvestment for the sustainability of the venture capital ecosystem [15].

本文仅在今日头条发布，谢绝转载。 10月27日晚上，黄金跌破4000美元了，跌了快3%。 就在上周，这玩意儿还冲上4380美元创历史新高，结果这才几天就跌回4000以下。这波操作，把多少人的"避险资产"变成了"高危资产"。 为啥突然就崩了？ 因为上周末，中美经贸团队在吉隆坡谈了两天，达成了个框架协议。美国财长贝森特周末接受采访时说，双方已就暂停加征更高关税达成初步共识。 这消息一出，市场立刻变脸。华尔街开始狂欢。 标普500突破6800点，纳斯达克涨1.86%，VIX恐慌指数跌到近一个月最低。 投资者的逻辑很简单：既然贸易战要降温了，还囤什么黄金？赶紧去买科技股、买风险资产。 中美贸易协议意味着对黄金的避险需求会减少。 在3800美元买入100万黄金的人，账面最高浮盈超过15万；在4200美元追涨的人，现在已经亏了5%；在4380美元最高点冲进去的人，亏损超过9%。 谁会先跑？当然是赚钱的那批。 他们一跑，价格就跌；价格一跌，亏钱的人就慌；慌了就割肉；割肉就加速下跌。 这就是金融市场的踩踏效应，没人想当最后一个接盘侠。 凯投宏观的首席经济学家John Higgins直接把黄金目标价下调到3500美元。他说得很 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with recent price movements indicating a potential downtrend despite a long-term bullish outlook. The market is expected to enter a consolidation phase due to various factors, including the anticipated end of the U.S. government shutdown and changing perceptions of gold as a scarce asset [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices have recently shown extreme daily fluctuations, with a notable drop of over 5% on a single day, following a peak above $4,380 per ounce, marking a historical high [3]. - The recent surge in gold prices was driven by a "FOMO" (Fear of Missing Out) sentiment, which has now led to a correction phase as the market adjusts to previous gains [2]. - The market is currently characterized by a shift in perception regarding gold's asset properties, with increasing recognition of its value as a hedge against currency devaluation [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest that the gold market may be entering a downward adjustment phase, with key resistance levels identified at $4,150, $4,117, and $4,108, while support levels are noted at $4,004, $3,940, and $3,915 [3]. - The trading volume has increased significantly, indicating heightened market activity, which may contribute to the current volatility [3]. - The absence of CFTC positioning data during the U.S. government shutdown has led to an imbalance in speculative positions, further exacerbating market fragility [2].

Market Performance Review - The recent market performance shows a pulse-like adjustment post-holiday, with the A-share market closing at 3883 points before the holiday and breaking through 3900 points before starting to adjust. On October 17, the market experienced its largest single-day decline since late August, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 dropping 1.95% and 2.26% respectively [4][7][25] - In the short term, there is a clear shift in style, with growth stocks leading in August with an overall increase of over 10%, while small-cap growth and national index growth fell by 6.28% and 5.96% respectively in October, indicating a reversal in the previously lagging value style [4][10][20] A-share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to enter the second phase of a bull market, with a focus on technology as the main line. The current market resembles the 1999 bull market, driven by policy and cyclical patterns. The technology sector is expected to lead earnings recovery, which will drive structural market performance [4][35] - The valuation of growth stocks is under scrutiny, with liquidity being a core driver of the bull market. Current valuations for technology stocks have not yet reached a 15% overvaluation threshold, suggesting continued focus on AI applications in the coming year [4][35] Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to benefit from enhanced pricing power of Chinese companies and stable liquidity, with a focus on pharmaceuticals and e-commerce as new catalysts. The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index saw significant fluctuations, with the latter experiencing a decline of over 10% in October after a 13.9% increase in September [4][25][28] - The pharmaceutical sector has shown resilience, with innovative drug companies performing well despite overall market adjustments. The upcoming Double 11 shopping festival is expected to provide a boost to the e-commerce sector [4][25][28]

Core Insights - The market is showing signs of recovery, with increased confidence and activity in transactions [4][8][19] - There is a notable rise in the number of Limited Partners (LPs) participating in equity investment funds, indicating a growing willingness to invest [9][19] - The Guangdong province, particularly Shenzhen, is emerging as a key area for venture capital and private equity, supported by favorable policies [9][10][19] Market Activity - The number of LPs investing in equity funds reached 1,175 in September, with a total of 1,282 investments made [9] - The most active region for LP investments in September was Zhejiang, followed by Guangdong, with Shenzhen being a significant hub [9][10] - New funds are rapidly being established, such as the 30 billion yuan AI fund and the 50 billion yuan semiconductor fund in Shenzhen [11][12] Sector Focus - There is a strong concentration of investment flowing into "future industries" like artificial intelligence, robotics, and semiconductors [15][17] - The AI sector has seen a dramatic increase in financing events, with the number of new financing events doubling from Q1 2024 to Q2 2025 [16] - The year 2025 is being referred to as the "commercialization year for humanoid robots," with significant revenue growth reported by companies in this space [17] Investment Trends - The investment landscape is shifting towards a more strategic and professional approach, with a focus on clear strategies and excellent performance from fund managers [19] - The decision-making process for investments has accelerated, with some investors making decisions within a month [17] - There is a growing demand for talent in the AI and robotics sectors, with recruitment processes speeding up significantly [17] Conclusion - The current environment is characterized by a wave of technological innovation, with a clear trend towards a return to fundamentals in investment strategies [19] - The market is expected to favor those with technological insights and long-term vision, as uncertainty becomes the new norm [19]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a bounce back after a significant selloff in regional banks, with the KRE index up approximately 1.4% [3][5] - There are ongoing concerns regarding the auto lending market, particularly related to bad loans and potential fraud claims affecting certain banks [3][4] - Analysts suggest that the recent market reaction may be an overreaction, presenting a potential buying opportunity for investors [2][5] Banking Sector Insights - Despite the recent selloff, many banks reported resilient balance sheets and healthy net interest income levels [5] - The market has been operating at frothy levels, with relaxed lending standards over recent months contributing to the current situation [4][6] - The exposure to risks from the regional banking sector appears to be limited for now, although there are flashbacks to previous bank runs [7][6] Volatility and Options Market - Options expiration is expected to lead to increased trading volume, with a focus on how the market resolves its current technical structure [8][9] - The current volatility environment shows slight backwardation, indicating that near-term volatility is priced higher than longer-term volatility [10][11] - Recent trading sessions have shown attempts to recover losses, but selling pressure has emerged around midday [12][13] Commodity Market Dynamics - Gold has reached record levels before a slight pullback, with significant trading volume indicating a potential consolidation range [14][16] - The gold market is experiencing high trading activity, with expectations that today's volume could rank among the highest for the year [16][19] - Other metals like platinum and palladium are facing bearish trends, with platinum down about 7% early in the trading session [20][22] Broader Commodity Trends - The performance of metals has been strong this year, but sustainability remains a concern, particularly for underloved metals like silver [21][22] - The recent dynamics suggest a risk-on mentality in the metals market, with questions about the longevity of current trends [21][22] - The correlation between gold and equity markets has weakened, indicating a potential loss of gold's status as a safe haven asset [23]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the long-term and medium-term price trends of silver, highlighting significant price movements and the factors influencing these trends, including macroeconomic conditions and supply-demand dynamics [4][10][94]. Group 1: Long-term Price Trends - Silver has experienced two major bull and bear cycles since the 1980s, with the current bull market starting in 2020 and breaking the $50 mark recently [4]. - Historical peaks for London silver approached $50, while New York silver has been relatively subdued in comparison [4]. Group 2: Medium-term Price Trends - Seasonal price patterns indicate that March, April, and June typically see lower prices, while January, February, July, and December perform better [6]. - The current market has seen a record of six consecutive monthly gains, surpassing the previous record of five [6]. Group 3: Silver Analysis Framework - The financial attributes of silver have shifted to commodity attributes, with 59% of its characteristics now aligned with commodities, making it more sensitive to inflation expectations than gold [10]. - Silver's pricing is primarily based on gold, but its historical volatility is greater than that of gold [10]. Group 4: Influencing Factors and Outlook - The narrative of "de-dollarization" continues to gain traction, with major economies diversifying their foreign reserves by reducing U.S. Treasury holdings and increasing gold reserves [19]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and market expectations are crucial, with the neutral interest rate currently at 3.2%, slightly above the Fed's long-term rate [23][27]. Group 5: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global silver supply is primarily sourced from mining, accounting for over 80% of total supply, with production levels stable above 25,000 tons [55]. - Industrial demand for silver is robust, particularly in electronics and photovoltaics, which constitute nearly 60% of total demand [64][68]. Group 6: Investment Demand - Investment demand for silver has seen a resurgence, with physical investment increasing significantly, evidenced by a doubling of delivery volumes on Comex compared to the previous year [76][82]. - The anticipated supply-demand gap for silver is projected to narrow in 2025, with a forecasted physical demand of 35,716 tons, down 1% from the previous year [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for stock index futures are "oscillating with a bullish bias", for stock index options are "oscillating", and for treasury bond futures are "oscillating" [7][9][10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The panic sentiment in the stock index futures market is controllable, and geopolitical shocks present an opportunity to increase positions. In the stock index options market, the impact of risk events is limited, and it is appropriate to configure short - volatility strategies. In the treasury bond futures market, the risk - aversion sentiment has declined, and bond yields have rebounded. The short - term bond market is still significantly affected by risk appetite, but the impact of this round of tariffs may be lower than that in early April [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The opening of the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 2.5% on Monday, then quickly recovered and filled the gap. The recovery was driven by Trump's concession speech and institutional FOMO sentiment. Only IM increased its position by 14,000 lots. It is recommended to increase long positions in IM at low levels. The risk factors include the decline of incremental funds and the rise of the US dollar index [7] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The underlying market opened low and moved high. The option market turnover increased by 16.12% to 13.362 billion yuan. The trading rhythm slowed down later. The sentiment is positive, and the impact of risk events is limited. It is recommended to configure short - volatility strategies such as covered calls and double - selling [2][8] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures opened high and closed low, with all contracts closing up. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly rose. The central bank's net injection of 137.8 billion yuan supported the short - end of the bond market. The easing of Sino - US relations and the rise of the equity market were negative for the bond market. It is recommended to adopt corresponding strategies for trends, hedging, basis, and yield curves [3][9][10] 3.2 Economic Calendar - On October 13, 2025, China's September export annual rate in US dollars was 8.3%, higher than the forecast of 7.1%. Other data such as China's September social financing scale and the US September non - farm payrolls are yet to be released [12] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - In the first three quarters, China's total goods trade volume reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In September, China's exports and imports both increased, and the trade surplus decreased. China's September rare - earth exports decreased compared to August, while imports increased. Trump hinted at canceling new tariffs on China [13]