证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 05 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：股牛再出发 [Table_Title2] [Table_Summary] 1 月 5日，股市迎来新一年的首个交易日，债市则迎来交易力量的回归。开门行情之下，股债两市的喜悲却不 相通，股市强势开局，上证指数单日上涨 1.38%，新年伊始重返 4000 点之上；债市则经历大幅调整，各期限收益 率几乎全面上行。 权益市场放量上涨。万得全 A上涨 1.99%，全天成交额 2.57 万亿元，较上一交易日（12 月 31 日）放量 5015 亿元。港股方面，恒生指数上涨 0.03%，恒生科技上涨 0.09%。南向资金净流入 187.23 亿港元，其中快手 和小米集团分别净流入 15.56 亿港元和 10.19 亿港元，而腾讯控股、中国移动分别净流出 9.19 亿港元和 4.06 亿港 元。 指数突破前高，关注市场 FOMO（害怕踏空）情绪。万得全 A 强势突破 10-11 月高点，意味着前高附近的兑 现筹码基本出尽，做多资金掌握定价权，行情有望走出 10 月以来的震荡区间，形成上涨趋势。往后看 ...

文 |姑苏九歌 编辑 |姑苏九歌 12月5号这天，美股投资者估计比高考查分还紧张，推迟了一个多月的9月PCE数据终于要公布了。 要知道，这数据原该10月底就出来，结果美国政府一停摆，硬生生拖到现在，成了悬在市场头顶的"薛 定谔的猫"。 现在的美股有意思了，11月刚经历过一阵暴跌，转头又蹭蹭往历史高点冲，跟坐过山车似的。 这背后全靠一个信念撑着，美联储要降息了。 可经济信号又拧巴得很，一边通胀还没完全老实，另一边就业市场又开始冒凉风，搞得大家心里七上八 下。 之前8月核心PCE同比涨2.7%，已经连续55个月高于2%的目标，这次9月数据要是再不听话，之前的乐 观估计得打水漂。 市场提前狂欢，降息预期下的美股"蹦迪"时刻 要说最近的市场情绪，那真是把"预期先行"四个字玩明白了。 CMEFedWatch那个工具显示，现在赌12月降息的人，恨不得排到法国去，概率高得吓人。 就因为这股劲儿，美元指数连着跌了四周，亚洲欧洲的股指期货也跟着沾光，每天开盘跟打了鸡血似 的。 这波上涨多少有点"透支"的意思，大家生怕错过行情，得了"踏空焦虑症"，不管三七二十一先买了再 说。 行为金融学里管这叫FOMO情绪，翻译过来就是"怕错过 ...

点燃这场风波的是 "22万科MTN004"债券。这只债起息日是2022年12月15日，票面利率3%，规模20亿元，期限3年。如今万科向持有人提出，本金和利息 整体往后顺延一年。 这是万科债券兑付史上出现首次展期。 随后，多只万科债券单日跌幅超过20%，触发交易所临时停牌，而在接下来的几天内从90元附近价格暴跌至20元左右。 国际评级机构标普将万科的主体信用评级从"BB+"一次性下调至"CCC-"。截至2023年三季度，万科账上的有息负债规模约为3200亿元，且面临盈利下滑 的压力。 更为市场所关注的是，股东"输血"有上限，不能指望无限兜底。 过去一周多，万科展期引发万科债券集体暴跌。 一家债券私募机构在感恩节前紧急完成展期资产的估值调整，也导致今年大部分收益被吞噬殆尽。 如果把视线拉远，这种"自以为安全、实则安全垫不足"的状态，恰与投资大师霍华德·马克斯11月初最新投资备忘录《矿井里的蟑螂》（The Cockeyed）谈 论的主题不谋而合。 只不过，他讨论的是全球私募信贷市场，而非中国地产。 他从近期几起备受关注的高收益信用事件切入，指出在长期低利率环境后，市场已养成了宽松放贷的习惯。 并借用摩根大通CEO杰 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vanke's bond extension has led to a significant drop in bond prices, marking the first time in its history that such an extension has occurred, raising concerns about the company's financial stability and creditworthiness [3][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Reaction - Vanke's bond "22 Vanke MTN004," with a face value of 3% and a scale of 2 billion, has had its principal and interest payments postponed by one year, causing a collective plunge in Vanke's bonds [3]. - Following the announcement, several Vanke bonds experienced a single-day drop exceeding 20%, triggering temporary trading suspensions, with prices plummeting from around 90 yuan to approximately 20 yuan [4]. - Standard & Poor's downgraded Vanke's credit rating from "BB+" to "CCC-" due to the company's rising debt, which stood at approximately 320 billion yuan as of Q3 2023, alongside pressures from declining profits [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Investors initially perceived Vanke's bonds as stable investments but were suddenly confronted with the complexities of real estate cycles, local finances, policy directions, and credit support structures [5]. - The situation reflects a broader theme discussed by investor Howard Marks, highlighting the disconnect between perceived safety and actual risk in the market [5][6]. - The current market sentiment is characterized by a shaky optimism, with investors feeling compelled to remain in the market due to fear of missing out (FOMO) [11][12]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Risk Management - In the context of private credit markets, Marks emphasizes the importance of maintaining rigorous credit standards amidst a trend of lowered investment criteria by others [33][34]. - The discussion includes the potential for high-yield bonds and private credit to outperform cash, with current liquidity credit yields around 7%, though net returns may be lower after accounting for management fees and default risks [19][27]. - Marks warns that the increasing number of active private credit managers may limit the potential for excess returns, suggesting that the market is becoming more efficient [31][32].

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a unique performance with a rebound during the period of November 3-7, 2025, where the Wande All A index closed at 6386.56, up 0.63% from October 31, 2025, while the China Convertible Bond index rose by 0.86% [9][11] - The improvement in structural risks within the A-share market has contributed to its independent performance, contrasting with the global market's concerns over AI valuation bubbles and macroeconomic factors [15][11] - The trading concentration has decreased to around 40%, significantly lower than the 45% threshold, indicating a reduction in structural risks and allowing for a market rebound [15][11] Group 2 - The current market resembles the period from December 2014 to February 2015, characterized by a similar pattern of adjustment and rebound, suggesting potential for a significant upward movement if the market breaks through previous highs [39][41] - The transition from traditional industries to emerging sectors is crucial for alleviating concentrated trading risks, as seen in the historical context of 2014-2015 [42][44] - The market's current trading concentration is at a historically high level, necessitating a new narrative to attract funds away from the technology sector to ensure a balanced market structure [49][52] Group 3 - The valuation of convertible bonds has shown significant stretching, with the valuation center for bonds priced at 80 yuan reaching 52.89%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points from October 31, 2025 [24][28] - The new convertible bonds have been listed with prices predominantly above 140 yuan, indicating a supply-demand imbalance in the market [58][59] - The performance of newly listed convertible bonds has been strong, with a notable price increase exceeding that of the underlying stocks, suggesting a bullish sentiment in the market [62]

Group 1 - The report highlights a recovery in overseas markets, with US stocks rebounding and Asian markets, including Japan and South Korea, showing positive trends. The domestic market remains strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index rebounding above 4000 points. The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.08 trillion yuan, an increase of 181.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][2][4] - The report notes that the concentration of trading has decreased to 40.59%, indicating a moderate level of structural risk. However, this level is still above the historical low of 35%, suggesting that while the market is rebounding, the underlying risks remain [2][3] - The report discusses the potential for a Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) scenario if the market can break through previous highs, which would indicate a strong positive sentiment among investors. The A-share market's ability to surpass the highs of October 9 and October 29 will be a critical test of this sentiment [3][4] Group 2 - In the Hong Kong market, significant inflows into Hang Seng Tech ETFs were observed, with net inflows of 12 billion yuan into the Hang Seng Tech ETF on November 5. This indicates a positive sentiment towards technology stocks [4][6] - The report mentions that the bond market is under pressure due to strong stock market performance, with long-term interest rates adjusting. The yield on 10-year and 30-year bonds rose slightly, reflecting market volatility [5][6] - The commodity market has seen a rebound after two days of declines, with precious metals and industrial metals showing gains. The report notes a significant net inflow of 6.4 billion yuan into the commodity index, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant revival in the IPO market, indicating a renewed confidence in the primary market driven by recent successful listings and increased investment activity [2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Activity - The primary market is experiencing a surge, with seven companies listed on the same day, signaling a strong recovery in investor confidence [4][6]. - Investment firms are actively engaged in both supporting portfolio companies and exploring new projects, reflecting a busy atmosphere in the venture capital sector [3][6]. - The number of new private equity and venture capital funds registered in September reached 557, marking a 51.4% increase month-over-month and an 84.4% increase year-over-year, indicating a robust recovery in fundraising activities [9]. Group 2: Exit Opportunities - In the first three quarters of 2025, 161 Chinese companies went public, a 25.8% increase year-over-year, with total financing amounting to approximately RMB 193.73 billion, a 102.4% increase [10]. - The A-share market saw 78 companies listed, a 13.0% increase, while the overseas market had 83 listings, a 40.7% increase, showcasing a significant rebound in exit opportunities for investors [10]. - The renewed focus on Hong Kong as a viable exit strategy has improved the outlook for venture capital and private equity firms [10]. Group 3: Investment Trends - There is a noticeable shift in investment focus towards "future industries," particularly in sectors like robotics, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors, with a significant increase in financing events [13]. - The AI sector saw a dramatic rise in financing events, from 188 in Q1 2024 to 435 in Q3 2025, reflecting a 20.8% quarter-over-quarter growth and a 99% year-over-year increase [13]. - The year 2025 is being recognized as the "commercialization year for humanoid robots," with several projects reporting substantial order volumes, indicating strong market demand [14]. Group 4: Talent Market Dynamics - The demand for investment professionals in AI and robotics has surged, with recruitment processes accelerating significantly, highlighting the industry's growth [15]. - The return of long-term capital allocation and confidence from foreign LPs is closely tied to clear exit expectations, which are crucial for sustaining market momentum [15]. Group 5: Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment is shifting from a cautious approach to a more aggressive investment strategy, with investors feeling more confident in identifying and seizing opportunities [12][13]. - The article emphasizes the importance of a healthy cycle of investment, exit, and reinvestment for the sustainability of the venture capital ecosystem [15].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices, dropping below $4000 after reaching a historical high of $4380, reflects a shift in market sentiment due to progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations, leading to reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][4][5]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement of a preliminary agreement to pause higher tariffs between the U.S. and China, the market reacted positively, with the S&P 500 surpassing 6800 points and the Nasdaq rising by 1.86%, while the VIX fear index fell to its lowest in nearly a month [4][5]. - Investors shifted their focus from gold to riskier assets like technology stocks, indicating a significant change in investment strategy [4][5]. Price Dynamics - Gold prices surged from $3800 to $4400 in three weeks, representing a $600 increase, but the recent drop has led to significant losses for those who bought at peak prices [7][8]. - Investors who purchased gold at $4200 are currently facing a 5% loss, while those who bought at the peak of $4380 are down over 9% [8]. Market Sentiment and Predictions - The current market sentiment is characterized by a fear of missing out (FOMO) during the price surge, which may now be shifting to fear of losing out (FOLO) as prices decline [9]. - John Higgins, Chief Economist at Capital Economics, has lowered the gold price target to $3500, suggesting a potential further decline of over 12% from current levels [9][16]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the recent volatility, the long-term value of gold remains tied to deeper economic factors such as the weakening of the U.S. dollar, global order restructuring, and the trend of de-dollarization [15]. - The demand for gold as a hedge against economic instability may diminish as inflation decreases and economic recovery progresses, reducing the urgency for central banks to accumulate gold [11][12]. Investment Strategy - Long-term holders of gold are advised to remain calm amid short-term fluctuations, as the fundamental reasons for holding gold have not changed [15]. - Speculative investors should exercise caution, as predictions indicate that gold prices may continue to decline, potentially leading to further losses [16].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with recent price movements indicating a potential downtrend despite a long-term bullish outlook. The market is expected to enter a consolidation phase due to various factors, including the anticipated end of the U.S. government shutdown and changing perceptions of gold as a scarce asset [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices have recently shown extreme daily fluctuations, with a notable drop of over 5% on a single day, following a peak above $4,380 per ounce, marking a historical high [3]. - The recent surge in gold prices was driven by a "FOMO" (Fear of Missing Out) sentiment, which has now led to a correction phase as the market adjusts to previous gains [2]. - The market is currently characterized by a shift in perception regarding gold's asset properties, with increasing recognition of its value as a hedge against currency devaluation [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest that the gold market may be entering a downward adjustment phase, with key resistance levels identified at $4,150, $4,117, and $4,108, while support levels are noted at $4,004, $3,940, and $3,915 [3]. - The trading volume has increased significantly, indicating heightened market activity, which may contribute to the current volatility [3]. - The absence of CFTC positioning data during the U.S. government shutdown has led to an imbalance in speculative positions, further exacerbating market fragility [2].

Market Performance Review - The recent market performance shows a pulse-like adjustment post-holiday, with the A-share market closing at 3883 points before the holiday and breaking through 3900 points before starting to adjust. On October 17, the market experienced its largest single-day decline since late August, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 dropping 1.95% and 2.26% respectively [4][7][25] - In the short term, there is a clear shift in style, with growth stocks leading in August with an overall increase of over 10%, while small-cap growth and national index growth fell by 6.28% and 5.96% respectively in October, indicating a reversal in the previously lagging value style [4][10][20] A-share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to enter the second phase of a bull market, with a focus on technology as the main line. The current market resembles the 1999 bull market, driven by policy and cyclical patterns. The technology sector is expected to lead earnings recovery, which will drive structural market performance [4][35] - The valuation of growth stocks is under scrutiny, with liquidity being a core driver of the bull market. Current valuations for technology stocks have not yet reached a 15% overvaluation threshold, suggesting continued focus on AI applications in the coming year [4][35] Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to benefit from enhanced pricing power of Chinese companies and stable liquidity, with a focus on pharmaceuticals and e-commerce as new catalysts. The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index saw significant fluctuations, with the latter experiencing a decline of over 10% in October after a 13.9% increase in September [4][25][28] - The pharmaceutical sector has shown resilience, with innovative drug companies performing well despite overall market adjustments. The upcoming Double 11 shopping festival is expected to provide a boost to the e-commerce sector [4][25][28]