以下文章来源于画不多说 ，作者懂私募的灵魂画手 画不多说 . 话不多说，画多说。用最通俗易懂的方式，讲述私募的故事。 去年CTA策略的整体表现很不错，平均收益有19%。 但细心的朋友肯定发现了，同样是CTA，有的策略赚得盆满钵满，有的却不赚钱。 其实不光是去年，几乎每一年，不同的CTA策略表现都像是盲盒，业绩好坏相差甚远。这是为 啥？ 想解决这个问题，咱得先搞清CTA策略的分类。 CTA是一个大家族，分类方式多样。 第一，看谁来投。 要么是人，要么是机器。 主观CTA持仓集中，有望实现高收益，但波动也相对较大。 量化CTA相反，会在多个品种、多个周期上进行分散配置，走势更平滑。 牛市 、 熊市 由于有明显趋势， 趋势策略 都容易赚钱。 震荡市就不适用了，因为判断不出趋势，价格来回打脸。 第二，要投多久。 中短周期，主要看的是量价等高频数据，对市场短期波动敏感，交易频繁。 长周期策略则更侧重于结合宏观与基本面分析，基于周线、月线等长期指标决策。捕捉的都是大 趋势，能"过滤"一些市场短期杂音。 第三，以什么方式投。 最主流的就两种，趋势和截面。 趋势策略 ：涨了就做多，跌了就做空，相信趋势会延续。 截面策略 ：在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in short-selling funds against Pop Mart has led to a significant decline in its stock price, with the short-selling activity reaching a one-year high since September [1][4]. Group 1: Short-Selling Activity - The cumulative funds for short-selling Pop Mart have reached a new high over the past year, contributing to the continuous decline in its stock price [1]. - An increasing number of foreign institutions have published bearish views on Pop Mart, echoing concerns similar to those seen during the AI bubble, indicating a lack of immediate evidence to confirm or refute these views [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Performance - The stock price of Pop Mart is expected to remain stagnant in the short term due to the absence of strong data supporting either bullish or bearish positions, leading to a stalemate [4]. - Concerns have been raised regarding the sustainability of high growth driven by the Labubu product, with fears of a high base effect impacting future performance [6][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ideal time for bottom-fishing in Pop Mart would be when the premium expectations for Labubu diminish and market hopes for new hit products are low [5]. - Pop Mart is currently positioned between the expansion and peak phases of its product cycle, with market fears that it may soon transition into a downturn phase if new hit products are not developed [8][10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - The bond market pricing logic has shifted from "asset - end" to "liability - end". A new framework based on "liquidity", "institutional behavior", and "relative value" is proposed to help institutions trade flexibly. The concept of fixed - income sell - side research also needs to change [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Current Bond Market's "Liability - End" Pricing Logic - **Key Variable for Interest Rate Fluctuation and Macroeconomic "Desensitization" - Money Velocity**: Interest rate and macro - economy relationship has become "desensitized". The link between interest rate changes and macro - economic trends assumes stable money velocity. Economic structural adjustment may have reduced money velocity, leading to a decline in nominal growth and a decrease in real - sector funding demand [9][10] - **Macro Observation of "Liability - End" Pricing of Interest Rate Trends - Relative Liquidity**: Interest rate pricing now depends more on the "liability - end" or the supply side of funds. With the weakening of real - sector financing demand, bond yields are more determined by the relative scale of funds chasing bonds, i.e., "relative liquidity" [15][16] - **Micro Observation of "Liability - End" Pricing of Interest Rate Trends - Institutional Allocation and Trading Power**: Institutional behavior is an intermediary variable affecting bond pricing. Institutions should be classified by "allocation behavior" and "trading behavior". Allocation behavior has seasonal characteristics, while trading behavior occurs in a short time and requires micro - confirmation [21][22] 2. Bond Investment Solutions in a Low - Interest - Rate Environment - Active Trading to Increase Returns - **Trading is a Process of Exchanging Liquidity for Returns**: Trading is not a zero - sum game but a process of exchanging liquidity for returns. Higher trading activity can bring liquidity premiums. Institutions can exchange liquidity for returns, and the central bank's policies aim to enhance market liquidity [29][30] - **Two Trading Strategies: Trend Strategy and Relative Value Strategy**: Trend strategy focuses on accurately judging the pricing factors of a target to follow the trend and gain returns, relying on grasping "common points". Relative value strategy focuses on finding the different pricing factors between related targets, reducing model complexity and analysis difficulty, and is a grasp of "differences" [32] - **Role of Two Trading Strategies' Logic in Allocation - Type Institutions**: For allocation - type institutions, timing corresponds to the logic of the trend strategy, and bond selection corresponds to the logic of the relative value strategy. When timing, they need to consider long - term and short - term factors; when selecting bonds, they need to judge the dynamic relative value [34] 3. New Framework for Bond Investment Research - Pyramid Pricing System Based on a Low - Interest - Rate Environment - **Triple Structure of the Pyramid Pricing System: Liquidity, Institutional Behavior, and Relative Value**: The bottom layer is the "liquidity" system, which includes macro, meso, and micro variables related to funds and bond liquidity. The middle layer is the "institutional behavior" system, which requires a complete and forward - looking research system. The upper layer is the "relative value" system, which shows the relative position of spreads but is not a decisive factor for relative value strategies [40][44][47] - **Building a Decision - Factor Tree for Relative Value Trading Strategies**: Select appropriate liquidity, institutional behavior, and relative value factors according to the target of a relative value trading strategy to build a decision - factor tree. Analyze each factor and assign weights to judge the strategy's win - rate and odds. Allocation - type institutions can transform their position adjustment problems into relative value trading strategies for analysis [51] 4. Understanding of the New - Era Fixed - Income Sell - Side Research Concept - In the high - interest - rate stage, fixed - income sell - side research provided macro - level information to support investment decisions. In the low - interest - rate stage, it should provide bottom - up market characteristics to support investment trading and position management, and its positioning should shift from "guiding direction" to "assisting execution" [54]