Group 1 - The semiconductor ETFs experienced significant gains, with the chip leader ETF rising by 5% and the semiconductor equipment ETF soaring by 8% due to rumors about a domestically developed EUV lithography machine expected to enter trial production in Q3 2025 and achieve mass production in 2026 [1] - The current PE valuation of the chip index has reached 143 times, placing it in the 99th percentile, the highest level since the index's inception, even surpassing the peak in 2021 [2][4] - The PB valuation of the chip index stands at 7.46 times, which is in the 83.71 percentile, indicating that while it is not as high as the PE valuation, it is still at a historically elevated level [4] Group 2 - Despite the high valuations, many investors remain cautious due to past experiences with high-valuation sectors like liquor, healthcare, and new energy, where significant losses were incurred despite stable profit growth [6][9] - Companies like Kweichow Moutai and CATL have seen their PE valuations drop significantly, with Moutai's PE decreasing from 70 times to 20 times, while CATL's dropped from 160 times to 29 times, highlighting the impact of valuation on stock performance [8][11] - The trend model strategy is proposed as a solution for navigating high-valuation environments, allowing investors to hold onto stocks as long as they maintain an upward trend, thus avoiding significant losses during market downturns [14][17] Group 3 - Alibaba announced a significant investment of 380 billion in AI infrastructure and a partnership with NVIDIA, leading to a 10% increase in its stock price, although it still needs to rise 40% to reach its previous high [19] - The ongoing investment in new energy by China contrasts with the U.S. approach, which may lead to China dominating the global new energy sector in the future [19]

2025 年 09 月 23 日 证券研究报告 | 财富生态周报 ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报 2025/9/23 分析师：卫以诺 分析师登记编码：S0890518120001 电话：021-20321014 邮箱：weiyinuo@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890522110001 电话：021-20321297 邮箱：chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 分析师：薛婧怡 分析师登记编码：S0890525070001 电话：021-20321092 邮箱：xuejingyi@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 2025/9/17》2025-09-17 2、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/9/9》2025-09-09 3、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/9/2》2025-09-02 4、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/8/26》2025-08-26 5、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/8/19》2025-08-19 投资要点 分析师：程秉哲 ◆网格交易策略概述：简单来说，"网格交易"本质上是一种高 ...

Market Overview - The market has returned to previous highs, with the Hang Seng Index reaching a new high for the year, while the Hang Seng Tech Index has not yet surpassed its previous high [1] - Both Chinese and US markets are currently stable, awaiting significant trading events in the coming week [2] - The 10-year treasury yield at 1.8% has seen increased institutional buying, indicating ongoing liquidity pressure [1] Investment Strategy - The overall judgment of "stock market oscillation upward" continues, with a focus on marginal funds and pricing direction this week [1] - Three key investment directions are suggested: 1. Small-cap growth manufacturing sectors benefiting from easing policies (robotics, new energy, machinery) [1] 2. Cyclical sectors such as real estate and dividends [1] 3. Undervalued sectors like pharmaceuticals that continue to attract active funds [1] Hot Topics - Various ETFs are highlighted for different investment strategies, including: - High-tech ETFs focused on artificial intelligence and innovation [2] - Financial technology ETFs and brokerage ETFs as part of a bull market strategy [2] - ETFs related to food and internet sectors for recovery plays [2] - The market's structural expectations are anticipated to clarify during the upcoming trading week [2] Global Context - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and new rounds of negotiations between China and the US are key global focus points [2] - There is a notable contrast between global easing expectations and domestic liquidity conditions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the A-share market has been exceptionally strong, with significant profits from the chip leader ETF grid established in April 2022, achieving a grid return of 53.68% and an absolute return of 70.85% compared to the ETF fund's return of 31.94% during the same period [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Grid Performance - The chip leader ETF grid was established on April 15, 2022, and has since yielded a grid return of 53.68% and an absolute return of 70.85% [2]. - The ETF fund's return during the same period was 31.94%, indicating that the grid strategy significantly outperformed a buy-and-hold approach [1][2]. Market Conditions - The chip industry had already corrected over 30% from its peak, providing a sufficient safety margin for establishing the grid [3]. - Despite initial underestimations of the bear market's severity, the grid strategy has proven successful, allowing for a timely exit [3]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the chip index has risen to 126 times, placing it in the 98.78 percentile, the highest since the index's inception [5][6]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 13.88 times, also near historical highs, indicating that both PE and PB valuations are at their peak levels [5][6]. Future Outlook - The chip industry is still viewed positively despite high valuations, as it aligns with national strategic needs and is likely to be a key player in the current bull market [8][18]. - For future investments in the chip sector, the focus should shift from valuation metrics to price trends, suggesting that if the price maintains an upward trajectory, it should be held; otherwise, it should be sold [9][18]. Investment Strategy - The grid strategy involves buying more when prices drop and selling when they rise, which is particularly effective in a bull market [11][12]. - The distinction between grid trading and trend trading is emphasized, with the latter being more suitable for high-valuation sectors [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the grid trading strategy as a method to profit from price fluctuations without predicting market trends, making it suitable for volatile markets [3][11] - The report identifies key characteristics for suitable grid trading targets, including low trading costs, good liquidity, and significant volatility, suggesting that equity ETFs are appropriate for this strategy [3][11] Group 2 - The report highlights three specific ETFs for grid trading: - The S&P Consumer ETF (159529.SZ) benefits from expectations of interest rate cuts in the US and improved US-China trade relations, making it a tool for regional diversification [3][12] - The Xinchuang ETF (562570.SH) is driven by policy support and domestic substitution, with significant government investment aimed at supporting projects in electronic information and industrial sectors [4][15] - The New Economy ETF (159822.SZ) captures new economic growth drivers in China, supported by government policies promoting technological and industrial innovation [5][16]

Group 1: Consumer Sector Performance - The consumer sector has been declining for several years, with a notable lack of interest from investors [1] - The Hong Kong consumer ETF has increased by 21% since the beginning of the year, indicating some recovery in the sector [1] - Investors are seeking stocks that are low in price but have not yet started to rise, rather than those that are simply undervalued [1] Group 2: Specific Industry Analysis - The liquor industry has seen a decline of 11% since the beginning of the year, with a total loss of 23.5% since March 2022 [2][4] - Issues in the liquor sector include inventory buildup, weak demand, and declining profits, particularly for high-end brands like Moutai [4] - The photovoltaic industry has experienced a 4% decline this year, with a total loss of 43.4% since March 2022, indicating severe fundamental issues [4][5] - The tourism sector has also faced a 3% decline this year, with a total loss of around 20% since October 2021, reflecting inconsistent visitor rates and financial instability among many companies [7][10] Group 3: Challenges in Specific Segments - The duty-free segment is struggling with declining consumer purchasing power, leading to reduced profit margins for companies like China Duty Free Group [10] - Tourist attractions face unpredictable visitor rates, with some locations experiencing temporary popularity while others suffer from financial instability [10] - The airline industry is impacted by reduced business travel and declining consumer spending, leading to fewer passengers [10] - The hotel sector is facing intense competition, resulting in challenges similar to those in the restaurant industry [10] Group 4: Broader Industry Concerns - Other sectors such as real estate, coal, building materials, medical devices, food, and batteries are also experiencing difficulties, primarily due to weak demand or overcapacity [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the A-share market has been positive, with a notable grid profit of 30.29% from the China Securities 2000 ETF grid strategy initiated on November 30, 2023, despite initial challenges due to liquidity issues in micro-cap stocks [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance and Valuation - The PE valuation of the China Securities 2000 Index has reached 144 times, the highest level in the past decade, making the decision to take profits reasonable at this point [4]. - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF grid strategy, which was initially launched on March 30, 2023, faced challenges due to its small size but successfully captured the subsequent market uptrend [6][7]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Focus - The grid profit-taking does not imply a bearish outlook; rather, it reflects that the market has met initial expectations, and the strategy aims to capture reasonable profits [6]. - The Hong Kong Consumer Index is characterized by relatively low valuations, with a PE ratio around 21, compared to 19 for the A-share consumer index and 18 for the liquor index, indicating potential for further growth [7][8]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the Hong Kong Consumer Index include major players like Xiaomi, Tencent, and Alibaba, aligning well with the consumption trends of younger generations [10]. Group 3: Consumer Trends and Future Outlook - The absence of liquor stocks in the portfolio is intentional, as the focus is on sectors that are more likely to benefit from consumer spending stimulus, such as platforms for consumption, gaming, and new energy vehicles [12][13]. - The potential for consumer spending to increase due to social security fee reductions or birth subsidies is highlighted, but it is noted that this may not directly benefit the liquor sector [12][13].

Group 1 - The current market is dominated by bank stocks and micro-cap stocks, with increases of 0.46% and 1.39% respectively, and the latter has reached a new high [1] - Insurance capital is expected to diversify into low PB valuation sectors under the anti-involution expectations, beyond just banks [2][6] - The preference for bank stocks is attributed to their attractive dividend yields and high certainty, which is not solely based on performance predictability [4][6] Group 2 - Bank performance is relatively stable, with manageable declines, as they can utilize provisioning rates to smooth out fluctuations [5] - In comparison, sectors like coal and steel have lower dividend yields and significant performance declines, with major players like China Shenhua expected to see a net profit drop of 8.6%-15.7% year-on-year [5] - The dynamic nature of dividend yields and fundamentals means that as bank stock prices rise, their attractiveness to insurance capital may decrease, while other sectors could become more appealing if they stabilize and offer good yields [6][7] Group 3 - The brokerage index has shown a slowdown, failing to maintain its upward momentum [8] - The recent breakthrough of 3500 points lacks the usual fervor, indicating a subdued market sentiment [9] - Most brokerages reported significant profit growth, with some like Guotai Junan and Haitong seeing increases of 205%-218% and 1183% respectively, driven by a favorable stock market environment [11][13] Group 4 - The second wave of the brokerage market is believed to be ongoing, supported by solid fundamentals [14] - Historical data suggests that significant upward movements in the brokerage sector are infrequent, with only seven instances of over 20% increases since 2010, excluding 2015 [15] Group 5 - Two REITs are available for subscription, with minimum investments of 1000 yuan each, expected to yield annualized returns surpassing reverse repos [17] - The current stock-bond yield spread stands at 5.93%, indicating a higher relative attractiveness of stocks compared to bonds [23]

Group 1 - The essence of grid trading is based on the principle of buying low and selling high, utilizing multiple buy and sell points within a predetermined price range [1] - Grid trading is particularly effective in volatile market conditions, as historical data indicates that the A-share market often experiences structural fluctuations, making ETF grid trading highly applicable [1] - Grid trading strategies are not suitable for trending markets, as significant unilateral price movements can lead to strategy failure [1] Group 2 - One of the advantages of grid trading is the ability to automate transactions through brokerage software, allowing for fixed grid divisions that mitigate emotional interference and ensure trading opportunities are not missed [2] - Grid trading is user-friendly for ordinary investors, as it does not require in-depth analysis of the underlying asset's fundamentals, financial status, or cash flow, only the setting of appropriate buy and sell prices [1][2] - The strategy is particularly effective in reducing investment drawdowns by allowing for accumulation at lower prices and reduction at higher prices, thereby increasing the probability of achieving positive returns [2]

Core Viewpoint - Grid trading is a strategy that utilizes the principle of buying low and selling high within a predetermined price range, making it particularly effective in volatile market conditions [1]. Group 1: What is Grid Trading - Grid trading involves setting multiple buy and sell points within a defined price fluctuation range, allowing for repeated buying on dips and selling on rises to capture price differences [1]. - The strategy is most effective in oscillating market conditions, as historical data indicates that a significant portion of the A-share market operates within such structural oscillations [1]. - It is important to note that grid trading is not suitable for trending markets, as significant unilateral price movements can lead to strategy failure [1]. Group 2: Advantages of Grid Trading Strategy - Grid trading can be automated through brokerage software, allowing for parameter configuration that facilitates automatic buying and selling, thus minimizing emotional interference and ensuring trading opportunities are not missed [2]. - The strategy is user-friendly for ordinary investors, as it does not require in-depth analysis of the underlying asset's fundamentals, financial status, or cash flow; only appropriate buy and sell prices need to be set [3]. - Grid trading is particularly advantageous in volatile markets, as it typically involves increasing positions at lower prices and reducing them at higher prices, significantly lowering investment drawdowns and enhancing the probability of achieving positive returns [4].