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转债周度跟踪:7月以来转债执行强赎比例偏高-20250712
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Industry The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current risks in the convertible bond market include high valuations of low - volatility bond - type convertible bonds and high average market prices, which may lead to a stampede under external risks. If the Shanghai Composite Index fails to break through 3500 points for a long time, it may reverse market sentiment and the convertible bond market may follow suit [5]. - For absolute - return accounts, especially low - volatility bond - type strategy accounts, it is advisable to shift to a defensive position. For relative - return accounts, considering the risk of missing out on potential gains in a liquid market, balanced and equity - biased convertible bonds with previously compressed valuations may offer better value [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views and Outlook - The convertible bond market faces risks such as high valuations of low - volatility bond - type convertible bonds and high average market prices. The high price level may cause a stampede under external risks. If the Shanghai Composite Index fails to break through 3500 points for a long time, the convertible bond market may reverse [5]. - Absolute - return accounts can shift to defense, while relative - return accounts can consider balanced and equity - biased convertible bonds with previously compressed valuations [5]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, the equity and convertible bond markets continued to rise, but the growth rate narrowed. The underlying stocks outperformed convertible bonds, and convertible bond valuations increased slightly. The 100 - yuan premium rate of the entire market was 31%, up 0.48% week - on - week, and the latest percentile was at 84.90% since 2017. There was a slight divergence in valuations between high - and low - rated convertible bonds, with low - rated ones being slightly stronger [6]. - Convertible bonds followed the rise of underlying stocks, and the yield to maturity reached a new low this year at - 4.00%. As of the latest data, the conversion premium rate index, pure bond premium rate index, and yield to maturity were 43.98%, 32.38%, and - 4.00% respectively, changing by - 1.30%, + 1.58%, and - 0.30% week - on - week, and their percentile levels since 2017 were 65.00, 51.50, and 2.90 respectively [9][10]. 3.3 Clause Tracking - **Redemption**: This week, Weilong, Quanfeng, Zhite, and Henghui convertible bonds issued early redemption announcements. There are currently 17 convertible bonds that have issued early redemption or maturity redemption announcements but have not yet delisted, with a potential conversion or maturity balance of 6.6 billion yuan. There are 42 convertible bonds currently in the redemption process, and 10 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week. Three convertible bonds issued non - redemption announcements this week [12][17][19]. - **Downward Revision**: No convertible bonds proposed downward revisions this week. Jiali and Lanfan convertible bonds announced downward revisions, with Jiali's reaching the bottom and Lanfan's not. As of now, 162 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision period, 26 cannot be downward - revised due to net asset constraints, 1 has triggered the condition but has not announced, 40 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 2 have issued board proposals for downward revision but have not held a general meeting [20]. - **Put Option**: Lixun convertible bond issued a put option announcement this week. As of now, 6 convertible bonds are accumulating put - option trigger days, 4 of which are in the non - downward - revision period and 2 are accumulating downward - revision days [23]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - This week, Guanghe convertible bond issued an issuance announcement. Next week, Yongxi convertible bond is scheduled to be listed on July 14, 2025. As of now, there are 4 convertible bonds awaiting registration approval with a planned issuance scale of 4.8 billion yuan, and 3 convertible bonds that have passed the listing committee review with a planned issuance scale of 2.6 billion yuan [25].
可转债周报:2025年还会出现大面积的转债破面吗?-20250428
Huachuang Securities· 2025-04-28 12:06
截至 4 月 25 日,节能、风语、万顺转 2 董事会提议下修,凌钢(到底)、海优 转债(未到底)公告下修结果;27 支转债公告不下修,20 支转债公告预计触 发下修。 ❖ 上周清源、安集、鼎龙转债新券上市,证监会核准转债尚可 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 2025 年还会出现大面积的转债破面吗? ——可转债周报 20250428 近期转债市场破底率再度小幅抬升,尤其机构配置比例较高的光伏转债也陆续 出现破面,市场开始担心今年转债大面积破面是否还会发生。回顾分析历史上 2018 年、2021 年及 2024 年发生的三次大规模破面的底层变化以及今年的对 应比较,或可产生借鉴: 综上,2025 年大概率不会出现大面积的破面/破底,预计为范围可控、程度克 制的重点风险个券调整。考虑 2024 年定期评级跟踪报告披露节奏后置,评级 下调密集发生在 6 月下旬,预期 6 月中下旬前高风险个券价格压制或将持续。 也即对于大面积价格下行的担忧可减缓,但近期高风险低价个券或为好价格, 却不是好时间,交易节奏或可放缓。 ❖ 上周飞凯、华翔转债公告赎回,3 只转债提议下修 截至 4 月 25 日,飞凯、华翔转债公告赎回 ...