证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.08.13 核心观点 两地上市转债会有条款上的问题吗 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 分析师 李浩时 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080002 lihs@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《 近 期 境 外 债 有 什 么 新 关 注 ？ 》 2025-08-12 2. 《信用 | 加税落地，开始压利差？》 2025-08-10 3. 《期货｜关 注短线 反弹 的持续性》 2025-08-10 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 我们发现历史上境外有股票上市的转债，极少有下修并成功的情况。 2016 年至今，有境外股票上市的共 36 只转债。其中仅 2 家有过下修历史。 其中华友转债是瑞士 GDR 上市，电气转债是港股上市。 ❖ 目前整个转债市场中有 9 只转债在 A 股外有股份流通。其中港股上市 的公司包括南方航空、长城汽车、绿色动力、福莱特玻璃、重庆银行 5 家， 其中长城汽车在美国 OTC 市场也有股 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The convertible bond market continued its moderate upward trend during the week of August 4 - 9, 2025, with the price center approaching historical highs, the valuation structure further stretched, and trading activity remaining high. The repair momentum of both medium - low - priced and high - priced varieties increased, and there were improvements in both credit and elasticity preferences. Low - rated issuers frequently initiated downward revisions, concentrated in sectors such as power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and automobiles. The equity market was dominated by the growth style, with continuous inflows of funds into the science - innovation and manufacturing sectors, and the cyclical and military sectors also performed prominently. The intensity of industry and style rotation increased significantly, and fluctuations might intensify due to short - term sentiment warming. It is recommended to evenly allocate high - quality medium - low - priced individual bonds, considering valuation safety, fundamental support, and liquidity, and appropriately capture event - driven and rotation repair opportunities [2][5]. - Downward revision events in the current convertible bond market are relatively concentrated in sectors such as power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and automobiles, and some industries like the electronics industry have a relatively high PB during downward revisions. The overall credit ratings of companies initiating downward revisions are relatively low, with AA - grade having the highest proportion, followed by AA and A + grades, indicating relatively prominent conversion pressure for medium - and low - rated issuers. Downward revisions mostly occur during market upswings or after sharp rebounds, suggesting that companies tend to adjust terms when stock prices are relatively supported. The market price and premium rate at the time of downward revision are generally in the medium - to - high range, and the subsequent market reaction is generally positive, with some sectors performing significantly better in the week after the downward revision. It is advisable to pay attention to the impact of the motivation and timing of downward revisions on trading strategies and explore opportunities with underlying stock support and valuation repair potential [9]. - The A - share market's major indices continued to strengthen during the week, with small - and medium - cap science - innovation stocks being active. The Growth style dominated, with the STAR 50 and CSI 2000 leading the gains. Although the marginal improvement in investors' risk appetite was observed, the net outflow of institutional funds continued, mainly due to profit - taking behaviors such as portfolio rebalancing. In terms of industries, the cyclical and military sectors led the gains, with non - ferrous metals, machinery, and textile and apparel among the top performers. The consumer sector was fragmented, with textile and apparel and home appliances recovering, while commercial retail was weak. The trading volume distribution showed that the electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and machinery sectors were the most active. Overall, market hotspots were concentrated in high - elasticity and policy - driven areas. It is recommended to focus on high - elasticity sectors such as military and machinery while moderately and evenly allocating to less - crowded and stable sectors, balancing flexibility and risk control [9]. - The convertible bond market continued its upward trend, with small - cap bonds outperforming large - cap ones, and the market's risk appetite recovered. In terms of the valuation structure, the repair momentum was strong in the medium - low - priced and high - priced ranges, while the core medium - priced range faced pressure and declined. Low - priced bonds were supported by credit improvement, and high - priced bonds stabilized due to elasticity - driven trading. The implied volatility fluctuated at a high level, indicating a strong market expectation of future fluctuations. In terms of sectors, cyclical sectors such as machinery, non - ferrous metals, and national defense and military led the gains, and the pharmaceutical biology and basic chemical sectors had a high concentration of funds. Most of the top - performing individual bonds were driven by the strength of their underlying stocks, featuring high elasticity and medium - to - long - term durations. It is generally recommended to maintain a balanced allocation between high - growth and fundamentally stable sectors and be vigilant against short - term fluctuations in highly - crowded sectors [9]. - The primary market supply of convertible bonds was stable during the week, with one new bond available for subscription and seven companies updating their issuance plans, indicating continued active progress. In terms of terms, 27 bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revisions, 7 announced no downward revisions, and 1 proposed a downward revision. On the redemption side, 10 bonds were expected to trigger redemption, 3 announced no early redemption, and 7 announced early redemption. Overall, the primary supply continued to be released, and events related to terms and redemptions were frequent, with continued speculative sentiment. It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of these events on pricing and trading opportunities [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Characteristics of Convertible Bonds with Downward Revisions - By industry, from January to July 2025, the power equipment industry had the most downward revisions, with 8 convertible bonds announcing downward revisions, followed by the pharmaceutical biology and automobile industries, each with 5 convertible bonds announcing downward revisions. Among the industries with downward revisions, the electronics industry had the highest arithmetic average PB, with 4 convertible bonds announcing downward revisions and an arithmetic average PB of 3.6, followed by the petroleum and petrochemical and computer industries, with 1 and 2 convertible bonds announcing downward revisions respectively, and arithmetic average PBs of 3.5 and 3.3 respectively [17]. - The overall credit ratings of companies initiating downward revisions are relatively low. By credit rating distribution, among companies initiating downward revisions from January to July 2025, AA - grade convertible bonds accounted for the highest proportion, with 15 downward revisions, accounting for 30.6%, followed by AA and A + grades [19]. - In terms of market timing, downward revisions mostly occur during market upswings or after sharp rebounds, reflecting that companies tend to adjust terms when stock prices are relatively supported. When downward revisions occur, the market price and premium rate are generally in the medium - to - high range, and the subsequent market reaction is generally positive, with the automobile sector's convertible bonds having an average increase of 10.1% in the week after the downward revision, followed by the pharmaceutical biology sector with an average increase of 7.1% [9][21]. 3.2 Weekly Market Theme Review 3.2.1 Equity Market Theme Review - During the week of August 4 - 9, 2025, the trading themes in the equity market were active, with the military and high - end manufacturing themes leading the gains. The consecutive limit - up index led all themes, with a weekly increase of 17.8%. The trading themes such as the daily limit index, the first - board non - ST index, and the first - board index all had weekly increases of over 13%, indicating that short - term funds' attention to trend - following trading continued to increase. The high - end manufacturing and military sectors performed well, with the liquid - cooled server index and the general machinery selected index rising by 9.0% and 8.1% respectively, and the satellite navigation index and the satellite Internet index rising by 6.8% and 6.4% respectively. The science and technology sector continued to show a differentiated pattern, with the robot industry chain recovering strongly, while the optical module (CPO) index and the circuit board index declined. The pharmaceutical sector declined, with the innovative drug index and the weight - loss drug index falling by 2.2% and 2.8% respectively. In terms of fund flow, the weekly trading volumes of the first - board index and the daily limit index both exceeded 30 billion yuan, indicating increased activity of short - term funds. Overall, market sentiment continued to strengthen, and short - term funds shifted to high - elasticity sectors such as the military and high - end manufacturing, mainly driven by themes. At the same time, it is necessary to guard against the risk of valuation convergence in high - valuation sectors [28]. 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Market Review - During the week of August 4 - 9, 2025, the convertible bond market continued to be strong, with small - cap bonds leading the gains and large - cap bonds performing relatively weakly. The valuation structure was significantly differentiated, with significant repairs in the medium - low - priced and high - priced ranges and pressure on the core medium - priced range, reflecting that speculative funds were becoming more cautious at high levels. The implied volatility fluctuated at a high level, indicating a strong market expectation of future fluctuations. At the industry level, cyclical sectors such as machinery and non - ferrous metals led the gains, and the trading volume of the pharmaceutical biology and basic chemical sectors accounted for a relatively high proportion. The consumer sector showed increased differentiation. In terms of individual bonds, high - elasticity and medium - to - long - term duration bonds were driven by their underlying stocks and performed prominently, with a significant resonance between themes and cyclical factors. It is recommended to focus on high - quality individual bonds with strong valuation repair momentum, fundamental support, and underlying stock catalysts [32]. 3.3 Weekly Market Tracking 3.3.1 Major Indices and Sector Performance - During the week of August 4 - 9, 2025, the A - share market's major indices recovered. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.1% week - on - week, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.2%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.5%. Small - and medium - cap science - innovation stocks performed well, with the STAR 50 Index leading the gains, rising 3.5% week - on - week, the CSI 2000 Index rising 1.8%, the CSI 500 Index rising 0.7%, and the SSE 300 Index rising 1.2%. The net outflow of institutional funds continued, but the pressure eased. The average daily trading volume of the whole market was about 1.7 trillion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 billion yuan. The net outflow of institutional funds increased from 3.87 billion yuan on Monday to 12.52 billion yuan on Tuesday, then decreased slightly to 11.05 billion yuan on Wednesday, and then increased significantly again, reaching 34.92 billion yuan on Friday, possibly indicating short - term profit - taking behaviors. The average daily net outflow of institutional funds during the week was 17.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.32 billion yuan compared with the previous week, indicating a warming market sentiment [33]. - The A - share market continued its structural differentiation pattern during the week, with cyclical and military sectors performing strongly. The non - ferrous metals sector led the gains among Shenwan primary industries, rising 5.7% week - on - week, followed by the machinery and textile and apparel sectors, rising 5.4% and 4.6% respectively, and the national defense and military sector rising 4.4%. The consumer sector was fragmented, with the textile and apparel sector rising strongly, the home appliance sector showing signs of recovery, rising 2.9%, and the commercial retail sector performing weakly, falling 0.9%. Cyclical sectors generally recovered, with the coal, light manufacturing, and basic chemical sectors rising 3.2%, 3.2%, and 2.3% respectively. Overall, market funds were concentrated in cyclical and military sectors. It is recommended to focus on high - elasticity and policy - favored varieties, while also considering cyclical sectors and guarding against structural risks. In terms of trading volume, the electronics sector had the highest average daily trading volume of 220.78 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 11.13 billion yuan, accounting for 13.2% of the market. The pharmaceutical biology sector had an average daily trading volume of 164.82 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 29.78 billion yuan, accounting for 9.9%. The machinery sector's average daily trading volume was 159.71 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 33.52 billion yuan, accounting for 9.6%. The non - bank financial sector had a significant outflow of funds, with its average daily trading volume decreasing by 30.55 billion yuan week - on - week [39][40]. 3.3.2 Convertible Bond Market Performance - The convertible bond market performed actively during the week of August 4 - 9, 2025, with all major indices rising. Small - cap bonds led the gains, with the Wind Small - Cap Convertible Bond Index rising 2.8%, the mid - cap index rising 2.4%, and the large - cap index rising 1.7%. The market continued its upward trend, and investors' risk appetite increased. The trading activity of the convertible bond market recovered, with the average daily trading volume reaching about 89.8 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 7.36 billion yuan, but the overall sentiment of funds tended to stabilize. Currently, there is a resonance between themes and small - cap convertible bonds in the market, and the fund allocation has shifted [49]. - When divided by the parity range, the overall valuation of the convertible bond market has stretched. In the parity range below 90 yuan, the valuation has generally stretched, with the premium rate in the range below 80 yuan stretching by 2.80% and the 80 - 90 yuan range stretching by 1.41%. In the 90 - 100 yuan parity range, the 90 - 100 yuan range stretched by 1.82%, and the 100 - 110 yuan range stretched by 1.62%. In the medium - to - high parity range, the valuation was slightly differentiated, with the premium rate in the 110 - 120 yuan range stretching by 2.29%, the 120 - 130 yuan range stretching by 2.07%, and the range above 130 yuan compressing by 0.35%. Overall, the valuation of each range divided by the parity range has mainly stretched, mainly due to the "asset shortage" in the convertible bond market, where the short - term elasticity of convertible bonds may be greater than that of underlying stocks [51]. - When divided by the market price range, the valuation of convertible bonds continued to show a differentiated pattern, with a structural adjustment overall. The valuation in the range below 90 yuan compressed by 1.41%, the 90 - 100 yuan range slightly stretched by 4.36%, the 100 - 110 yuan range's premium rate significantly compressed by 17.84%, the 110 - 120 yuan range stretched by 4.20%, the 120 - 130 yuan range stretched by 7.74%, and the range above 130 yuan stretched by 3.16%. Overall, the valuation of medium - low - priced individual bonds in the 90 - 100 yuan range and high - priced individual bonds above 110 yuan strengthened significantly, while the valuation of the core 100 - 110 yuan range deeply corrected, and low - priced bonds below 90 yuan were also under pressure [53]. - The weighted implied volatility of the convertible bond market's balance fluctuated downward during the week, and the market sentiment became more cautious. The weighted implied volatility of the whole - market convertible bond balance rose from 26.4% on Monday to 27.8% on Wednesday and then declined, closing at 27.1% on Friday, an increase of about 2.1 pct compared with the previous Friday. From a historical percentile perspective, the implied volatility continued to be at the upper end of the 25% - 75% historical percentile range. Considering the 90 - day rolling average and the ± 1.5 - times standard deviation fluctuation range, the current implied volatility continued to operate outside the upper boundary of the channel, indicating an increased market expectation of future fluctuations in convertible bonds [54]. - The median price of convertible bonds fluctuated upward during the week, rising from 125.6 yuan last Friday to 128.6 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 2.3%. The convertible bond market showed signs of recovery, and the median price of convertible bonds was still higher than the 75% historical percentile, indicating that the market trading sentiment remained at a relatively high level, but the risk appetite was marginally shrinking [55]. - The convertible bond market's performance by sector was generally strong, and the concentration of funds increased slightly. Among 27 industries, the machinery sector led the gains, rising 5.7%, followed by the non - ferrous metals and national defense and military sectors, rising 4.2% and 4.1% respectively, and the beauty care and computer sectors also performed strongly, rising 4.0%. The consumer sector was relatively weak, with the commercial retail and food and beverage sectors rising 1.5% and 1.3% respectively. In terms of funds, there was a high degree of concentration, with the pharmaceutical biology sector having the highest average daily trading volume of 57.15 billion yuan, accounting for 12.8%, followed by the basic chemical and machinery sectors, accounting for 11.5% and 8.6% respectively. The three sectors together accounted for 32.9% of the trading volume, a slight decrease in concentration compared with the previous week. The machinery and non - ferrous metals sectors led the gains, indicating a slight shift in investors' risk appetite, while the pharmaceutical biology and basic chemical sectors still attracted a relatively high amount of funds. The consumer sector showed a more obvious differentiation pattern, with the beauty care sector performing well and the commercial retail sector performing weakly [57][60]. - Individual convertible bonds generally strengthened during the week, with technology and cyclical sectors performing well. Among them, 431 convertible bonds had a week - on - week increase of 0 or more, accounting for 93.1% of the total number of outstanding convertible bonds in the market. The top five convertible bonds in terms of week - on - week increase during the conversion period were Dongjie Convertible Bond (machinery, 39.6%), Jiaojian Convertible Bond (construction and decoration, 23.3%), Julong Convertible Bond (basic chemicals, 19.3%), Gaoce Convertible Bond (power equipment, 18.3%), and Borui Convertible Bond (pharmaceutical biology, 17.7%), with conversion premium rates of 3.5%, 17.9%, 5.9%, 0

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Industry The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current risks in the convertible bond market include high valuations of low - volatility bond - type convertible bonds and high average market prices, which may lead to a stampede under external risks. If the Shanghai Composite Index fails to break through 3500 points for a long time, it may reverse market sentiment and the convertible bond market may follow suit [5]. - For absolute - return accounts, especially low - volatility bond - type strategy accounts, it is advisable to shift to a defensive position. For relative - return accounts, considering the risk of missing out on potential gains in a liquid market, balanced and equity - biased convertible bonds with previously compressed valuations may offer better value [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views and Outlook - The convertible bond market faces risks such as high valuations of low - volatility bond - type convertible bonds and high average market prices. The high price level may cause a stampede under external risks. If the Shanghai Composite Index fails to break through 3500 points for a long time, the convertible bond market may reverse [5]. - Absolute - return accounts can shift to defense, while relative - return accounts can consider balanced and equity - biased convertible bonds with previously compressed valuations [5]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, the equity and convertible bond markets continued to rise, but the growth rate narrowed. The underlying stocks outperformed convertible bonds, and convertible bond valuations increased slightly. The 100 - yuan premium rate of the entire market was 31%, up 0.48% week - on - week, and the latest percentile was at 84.90% since 2017. There was a slight divergence in valuations between high - and low - rated convertible bonds, with low - rated ones being slightly stronger [6]. - Convertible bonds followed the rise of underlying stocks, and the yield to maturity reached a new low this year at - 4.00%. As of the latest data, the conversion premium rate index, pure bond premium rate index, and yield to maturity were 43.98%, 32.38%, and - 4.00% respectively, changing by - 1.30%, + 1.58%, and - 0.30% week - on - week, and their percentile levels since 2017 were 65.00, 51.50, and 2.90 respectively [9][10]. 3.3 Clause Tracking - **Redemption**: This week, Weilong, Quanfeng, Zhite, and Henghui convertible bonds issued early redemption announcements. There are currently 17 convertible bonds that have issued early redemption or maturity redemption announcements but have not yet delisted, with a potential conversion or maturity balance of 6.6 billion yuan. There are 42 convertible bonds currently in the redemption process, and 10 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week. Three convertible bonds issued non - redemption announcements this week [12][17][19]. - **Downward Revision**: No convertible bonds proposed downward revisions this week. Jiali and Lanfan convertible bonds announced downward revisions, with Jiali's reaching the bottom and Lanfan's not. As of now, 162 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision period, 26 cannot be downward - revised due to net asset constraints, 1 has triggered the condition but has not announced, 40 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 2 have issued board proposals for downward revision but have not held a general meeting [20]. - **Put Option**: Lixun convertible bond issued a put option announcement this week. As of now, 6 convertible bonds are accumulating put - option trigger days, 4 of which are in the non - downward - revision period and 2 are accumulating downward - revision days [23]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - This week, Guanghe convertible bond issued an issuance announcement. Next week, Yongxi convertible bond is scheduled to be listed on July 14, 2025. As of now, there are 4 convertible bonds awaiting registration approval with a planned issuance scale of 4.8 billion yuan, and 3 convertible bonds that have passed the listing committee review with a planned issuance scale of 2.6 billion yuan [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The equity market is expected to continue the pattern of index fluctuations and internal theme rotations. The convertible bond market shows good resilience in the volatile equity market, and its valuation is still supported. Recently, non - bank convertible bond targets have successively proposed downward revisions, reflecting a strong willingness to promote conversion of near - maturity convertible bonds. It is recommended to focus on the downward revision game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds and select bonds from three aspects: performance - driven, event - catalyzed, and dividend and defensive [2][3][19][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Focus Last Week (June 16 - 20, 2025) Stock Market - The equity market fluctuated and declined last week. Affected by the end of the "618" promotion and media public opinion, the consumer sector was weak, while the bank and technology sectors performed well. Most Shenwan primary industries closed down, with only banking, communication, and electronics closing up [9][10]. - Specific daily performance: On Monday, the three major A - share indexes rose collectively; on Tuesday and Thursday, they fell collectively; on Wednesday, they rose collectively; on Friday, they fell collectively [9]. Bond Market - The capital market remained relatively loose last week. Events such as the release of May economic data and the Lujiazui Financial Forum did not have a significant impact on the bond market, which continued to fluctuate throughout the week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.64% on Friday, down 0.44bp from the previous week [10]. Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues closed down last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.17% for the whole week, the median price fell 0.48%, and the calculated arithmetic average parity fell 2.08%. The overall market conversion premium rate increased by 2.39% compared with the previous week [10]. - In terms of industries, non - bank finance, banking, public utilities, and electronics performed well, while social services, media, building decoration, and beauty care performed poorly [13]. - At the individual bond level, Jingrui, Liande, Tianchuang, Xuerong, and Shouhua convertible bonds led the gains, while Jinling, Zhite, Jindan, and Dongshi convertible bonds led the losses [14]. - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 30.6524 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 6.1305 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week [18]. Views and Strategies (June 23 - 27, 2025) - The economic data in May showed differentiation, with strong consumption but a decline in investment and export growth. The market hotspots rotated rapidly, and the popular themes of innovative drugs and new consumption declined. The equity market is expected to continue the pattern of index fluctuations and internal theme rotations [2][19]. - The issuance of convertible bonds has accelerated slightly in the past two weeks. With low bond market interest rates, the demand for convertible bond allocation is strong, and the valuation of convertible bonds is still supported. Although some large - scale convertible bond issues have had their ratings downgraded, the overall impact on the market is relatively controllable [2][19]. - Ruida and Caitong convertible bonds have proposed downward revisions, reflecting the strong willingness of near - maturity convertible bonds to promote conversion. It is recommended to focus on the downward revision game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds and pay more attention to convertible bonds with negative YTM and good underlying stock credit quality [3][20]. - When selecting bonds, take advantage of the inconsistent driving factors of the dividend and technology sectors to reduce portfolio fluctuations, and select targets with performance support or valuation drivers from three aspects: performance - driven, event - catalyzed, and dividend and defensive [3][20]. Valuation Overview - As of June 20, 2025, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates for different parity ranges are as follows: 39.12% for 80 - 90 yuan, 28.66% for 90 - 100 yuan, 18.06% for 100 - 110 yuan, 13.67% for 110 - 120 yuan, 9.87% for 120 - 130 yuan, and 4.18% for over 130 yuan, at the 79%/56%, 76%/55%, 61%/29%, 68%/44%, 66%/46%, and 63%/26% percentile values since 2010/2021 respectively [21]. - For bond - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM for convertible bonds with a parity below 70 yuan is 0.4%, at the 11%/3% percentile values since 2010/2021 [21]. - The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds is 31.17%, at the 54%/31% percentile values since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks is - 16.67%, at the 14%/21% percentile values since 2010/2021 [21]. Primary Market Tracking - Last week (June 16 - 20, 2025), Xizhen and Huachen convertible bonds announced their issuance, and Hengshuai convertible bonds were listed [30][31][32]. - As of the announcements on June 20, there are no convertible bonds announced for issuance or listing in the next week (June 23 - 27, 2025) [33]. - Last week, the exchanges accepted applications from 2 companies (Naipu Mining Machinery and Jingda Co., Ltd.), and the general meetings of shareholders approved the plans of 2 companies (Benchuan Intelligent and Maiwei Co., Ltd.). There are no new companies approved for registration by the exchanges, passed by the listing committees, or with board - proposed plans. As of now, there are 78 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 125.18 billion yuan, including 6 approved for registration with a total scale of 13.45 billion yuan and 4 passed by the listing committee with a total scale of 2.93 billion yuan [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The equity market is expected to continue the pattern of index fluctuations and internal theme rotation, with the convertible bond market showing good resilience [2][19] - Recently, Ruidah and Caitong convertible bonds have proposed downward revisions, reflecting the strong willingness of near - maturity convertible bonds to promote conversion. It is recommended to pay attention to the downward - revision game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds and those with good underlying stock credit quality [3][20] - When selecting bonds, in a stage of high macro uncertainty, one can use the inconsistent driving factors of dividend and technology sectors to reduce portfolio volatility and select targets from three aspects: performance - driven, event - catalyzed, and dividend and defensive [3][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Trends (2025/6/16 - 2025/6/20) Stock Market - The equity market fluctuated and declined last week. The consumer sector was weak, while the bank and technology sectors performed well. The A - share market showed different trends on each trading day, with significant changes in trading volume and sector performance [9] - Most Shenwan primary industries closed down, with beauty care, textile and apparel, and pharmaceutical biology among the top decliners, while only the bank, communication, and electronics sectors closed up [10] Bond Market - The capital market remained relatively loose last week. Events such as the release of May economic data and the Lujiazui Financial Forum did not have a major impact on the bond market, which continued to fluctuate. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.64% on Friday, down 0.44bp from the previous week [10] Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues closed down last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.17% for the whole week, the median price dropped 0.48%, and the calculated arithmetic average parity dropped 2.08%. The overall market conversion premium rate increased by 2.39% compared with the previous week [10] - Most industries in the convertible bond market closed down. Non - bank finance, banks, public utilities, and electronics performed well, while social services, media, building decoration, and beauty care performed poorly [13] - The top - rising convertible bonds included Jingrui, Liande, Tianchuang, Xuerong, and Shouhua, while the top - falling ones were Jinling, Zhite, Jindan, and Dongshi [14] - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 30.6524 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 6.1305 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week [18] Valuation Overview - As of June 20, 2025, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates in different price ranges were at different percentile levels since 2010 and 2021 [21] - For debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of those with a parity below 70 yuan was 0.4%, at the 11%/3% percentile since 2010/2021 [21] - The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 31.17%, at the 54%/31% percentile since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was - 16.67%, at the 14%/21% percentile since 2010/2021 [21] Primary Market Tracking Last Week (2025/6/16 - 2025/6/20) - Xizhen Convertible Bond and Huachen Convertible Bond announced their issuance, and Hengshuai Convertible Bond was listed. Information about the underlying stocks, business, financial performance, production capacity, issuance scale, and use of funds of these three convertible bonds was provided [30][31][32] - The exchanges accepted applications from 2 companies (Naipu Mining Machinery and Jingda Co., Ltd.), and the general meetings of shareholders approved the applications of 2 companies (Benchuan Intelligence and Maiwei Co., Ltd.). There were no new companies approved for registration by the exchanges, passed by the listing committee, or with board proposals [34] - As of now, there are 78 convertible bonds awaiting issuance, with a total scale of 125.18 billion yuan. Among them, 6 have been approved for registration, with a total scale of 13.45 billion yuan, and 4 have passed the listing committee, with a total scale of 2.93 billion yuan [34] Future Week (2025/6/23 - 2025/6/27) - As of the announcement on June 20, there are no convertible bonds announced for issuance or listing in the coming week [33]

截至 4 月 25 日，节能、风语、万顺转 2 董事会提议下修，凌钢（到底）、海优 转债（未到底）公告下修结果；27 支转债公告不下修，20 支转债公告预计触 发下修。 ❖ 上周清源、安集、鼎龙转债新券上市，证监会核准转债尚可 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 2025 年还会出现大面积的转债破面吗？ ——可转债周报 20250428 近期转债市场破底率再度小幅抬升，尤其机构配置比例较高的光伏转债也陆续 出现破面，市场开始担心今年转债大面积破面是否还会发生。回顾分析历史上 2018 年、2021 年及 2024 年发生的三次大规模破面的底层变化以及今年的对 应比较，或可产生借鉴： 综上，2025 年大概率不会出现大面积的破面/破底，预计为范围可控、程度克 制的重点风险个券调整。考虑 2024 年定期评级跟踪报告披露节奏后置，评级 下调密集发生在 6 月下旬，预期 6 月中下旬前高风险个券价格压制或将持续。 也即对于大面积价格下行的担忧可减缓，但近期高风险低价个券或为好价格， 却不是好时间，交易节奏或可放缓。 ❖ 上周飞凯、华翔转债公告赎回，3 只转债提议下修 截至 4 月 25 日，飞凯、华翔转债公告赎回 ...