Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company [1][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a narrowing decline in revenue for Q3 2025, with a year-on-year revenue drop of 16.71%, compared to a 37.35% decline for the first three quarters of 2025. Net profit for Q3 2025 increased by 13.57% year-on-year [2][4]. - The growth in e-commerce channels has been significant, with e-commerce revenue increasing by 17.68% year-on-year, becoming a key growth driver for the company [5][12]. - The company has optimized its product and channel structure, benefiting from rising gold prices, which has led to a notable increase in gross profit margin [4][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 67.72 billion yuan, a decrease of 37.35% year-on-year, while net profit reached 8.82 billion yuan, an increase of 3.13% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, revenue was 21.75 billion yuan, down 16.71% year-on-year, and net profit was 2.88 billion yuan, up 13.57% year-on-year [2][4]. - The gross profit margin improved significantly, rising by 9.16 percentage points to 29.74% due to product structure optimization and increased revenue from high-margin self-operated and e-commerce channels [6]. Channel Performance - Revenue contributions from different channels for the first three quarters of 2025 were as follows: self-operated offline (19.82%), e-commerce (28.72%), and franchise (49.39%). The self-operated offline channel saw a slight decline of 0.86% year-on-year, while the franchise channel experienced a significant drop of 56.34% year-on-year [5][12]. - The number of self-operated stores increased by 47 to 400, while franchise stores decreased by 380 to 4,275 [5]. Product Performance - Revenue from embedded products was 5.56 billion yuan, down 4.89% year-on-year, while revenue from pure gold products fell by 44.44% to 49.42 billion yuan. Conversely, brand usage fees increased by 3.03% to 5.69 billion yuan [5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to enhance its self-operated and e-commerce channel development, focusing on lightweight and high-cost performance products. The projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 1.04, 1.18, and 1.33 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.2, 11.6, and 10.3 times [12].

Core Insights - The emergence of "first stores" is becoming increasingly significant in urban competition, reflecting their economic importance [1] Group 1: First Store Trends - In Q1 2025, over 600 new first stores are expected to open across 16 cities in China, representing a year-on-year growth of 42.11% compared to 2023 [2] - The concentration of first store openings peaked around New Year's Day, with over 10% of the total first stores launched on January 1 [3] - The number of provincial first stores reached over 70, marking a year-on-year increase of 36.36%, while the national first store absolute number and proportion have decreased from 25.26% in 2023 to 9.93% in 2024, totaling 67 stores [4] Group 2: International Brands and Market Segmentation - The proportion of international brands among first stores has increased to 25%, with Shanghai being the preferred location for international brands entering China [4] - Beauty and personal care brands have regained their position as the main contributors to first store openings, although the share of domestic brands has significantly decreased [4] - The beverage, bakery, and women's clothing categories continue to dominate interest, while local Chinese cuisine has seen a rise in first store numbers and proportions [5][6] Group 3: Regional Dynamics - The Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region has experienced a surge in first store openings, with Shanghai leading the way [7] - Notable contributions to first store openings in Suzhou include high-end brands, enhancing the commercial capacity of the city [7] Group 4: Japanese Cuisine Resurgence - The Japanese cuisine market is showing signs of recovery, with a projected 2.2% year-on-year growth in 2024 [8] - The proportion of first stores for Japanese cuisine has seen a dramatic increase of 185.01% compared to 2024, re-entering the top 10 categories [9] - New trends in Japanese cuisine include a focus on fresh ingredients and lower price points, appealing to younger consumers [10] Group 5: Fashion Accessories Growth - The fashion accessories sector is witnessing a resurgence, with first store openings increasing by 40.74% and 235.31% compared to 2023 and 2024, respectively [12][13] - New brands in the fashion accessories space are focusing on simplicity, affordability, and a broader customer base [13][14] Group 6: Rise of Niche Brands - The share of non-national chain brand first stores has risen from 37.47% to 48.89% over the past three years, with C-level brands contributing significantly [15] - New brands such as pet food and high-end children's sports brands are entering the market, indicating a shift towards niche offerings [16] Group 7: Innovative Concepts - Haidilao continues to innovate with new retail concepts, such as a "buying agent" restaurant model and unique dining experiences [17]