Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices in China have rebounded, leading the domestic non-ferrous sector, with a maximum intraday increase of over 3% as market dynamics shift [9][10] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) announced that the nickel ore production target for the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) is expected to be around 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 379 million tons target set for 2025 [9][10] - APNI also revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to revise the pricing formula for nickel commodities at the beginning of 2026, focusing on including nickel-associated minerals (like cobalt) as independent mineral types for pricing and taxation [9][10] Group 2: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - In the traditional industry chain, nickel-iron prices remain stable, and the stainless steel spot market shows improved transaction sentiment, with total social inventory of stainless steel at 1.0636 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.55% [10] - In the new energy industry chain, the decline in nickel prices, combined with year-end factors, has led to further price pressure from low-priced goods, while marginal demand is weakening, with a month-on-month decrease in the production of ternary precursors in December [10] - Domestic primary nickel inventory is showing signs of accumulation again, indicating that the oversupply situation for nickel remains unchanged, with weak demand and high inventory potentially limiting price increases [10]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View The report points out that there are multiple positive factors in the protein sector, with Laibo leading the rise. However, there are also risks such as the expected increase in soybean arrivals and sufficient oilseed supply in the fourth quarter, which makes the supply - shortage expectation in the first quarter gradually fade. It is recommended to gradually take profits on early low - position long orders and not to chase high for new orders [1][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Positive Factors - **Import cost increase**: After the details of the fifth round of China - US economic and trade negotiations were released, China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans before January next year and guarantee an annual purchase of 25 million tons of US soybeans for three years. The US soybean futures price has effectively stood above 1100 cents and is expected to reach 1200 cents [7]. - **Ultra - low rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories**: As of the end of the 44th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported rapeseed in China was 0.0 million tons, the same as last week and compared with 743,000 tons in the same period last year, with a five - week average of 800,000 tons. As of the end of the 43rd week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal was 800,000 tons, the same as last week; the contract volume was 700,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from last week, a 17.65% month - on - month decline [7]. Risks - **Expected increase in soybean arrivals**: The expected increase in soybean arrivals and sufficient oilseed supply (29 million tons) in the fourth quarter make the supply - shortage expectation in the first quarter gradually fade [7]. Recommendations - **Trading advice**: Gradually take profits on early low - position long orders and do not chase high for new orders [7].