撰稿：史玥明 从业资格：F03097365 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 周五，沪镍一改此前低迷格局，领涨国内有色系，盘中最大涨幅超3%，品种换月动作加快。消息面来 看，印尼镍矿商协会（APNI）透露，2026 年工作计划和预算（RKAB）中提出的镍矿石产量或将约为 2.5 亿吨，较 2025 年 RKAB 中 3.79 亿吨的产量目标大幅下降；APNI披露，能源与矿产资源部计划于 2026 年初修订镍商品的矿产基准价格（HPM）计算公式。据 APNI 透露，此次修订的重点之一在于， 政府将开始把镍伴生矿物（如钴）作为独立矿种加以计价，并对其征收版税。成本抬升预期推动镍价今 日反弹，后续继续关注印尼政策变动的落地情况。 基本面来看，传统产业链方面，镍铁价格维稳，不锈钢现货市场成交氛围好转，全国主流市场不锈钢89 仓库口径社会总库存106.36万吨，周环比下降1.55%。新能源产业链方面，原料受镍价下行叠加年终将 至，低价货出现进一步拖累价格中枢，同时，需求边际转弱，12月三元前驱体排产环比下降。国内一级 镍库存累库再现。因此，镍元素基本面过剩格局未改，偏弱的需求及较高的库存 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View The report points out that there are multiple positive factors in the protein sector, with Laibo leading the rise. However, there are also risks such as the expected increase in soybean arrivals and sufficient oilseed supply in the fourth quarter, which makes the supply - shortage expectation in the first quarter gradually fade. It is recommended to gradually take profits on early low - position long orders and not to chase high for new orders [1][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Positive Factors - **Import cost increase**: After the details of the fifth round of China - US economic and trade negotiations were released, China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans before January next year and guarantee an annual purchase of 25 million tons of US soybeans for three years. The US soybean futures price has effectively stood above 1100 cents and is expected to reach 1200 cents [7]. - **Ultra - low rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories**: As of the end of the 44th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported rapeseed in China was 0.0 million tons, the same as last week and compared with 743,000 tons in the same period last year, with a five - week average of 800,000 tons. As of the end of the 43rd week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal was 800,000 tons, the same as last week; the contract volume was 700,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from last week, a 17.65% month - on - month decline [7]. Risks - **Expected increase in soybean arrivals**: The expected increase in soybean arrivals and sufficient oilseed supply (29 million tons) in the fourth quarter make the supply - shortage expectation in the first quarter gradually fade [7]. Recommendations - **Trading advice**: Gradually take profits on early low - position long orders and do not chase high for new orders [7].