会议将发布的季度经济预测和利率点阵图也至关重要。白雪表示，市场将从中解读美联储对2026年经济 增长、通胀和失业率的预测，更重要的是，点阵图将揭示官员们对2026年及以后利率路径的中位数预 期，目前市场定价约为52个基点（约两次降息）。 周四凌晨，美联储将公布利率决议和经济预期摘要。 市场普遍预期，美联储12月降息已"板上钉钉"，但本次会议的核心悬念已非利率本身。在内部立场严重 分化、通胀与就业目标相互冲突的背景下，未来的政策路径指引以及鲍威尔如何平衡"鹰鸽"信号成为焦 点。同时，明年美联储主席换届也为货币政策增添了不确定性。 市场关注未来政策路径指引 11月ADP就业数据的意外转负叠加弱于预期的9月PCE价格指数，令市场押注美联储12月降息基本已 经"板上钉钉"。芝商所"美联储观察"工具显示，12月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）降息25个基点的可 能性目前接近90%。 然而，本次会议作为美联储主席鲍威尔近八年任期内内部"分裂"最为严重的一次议息会议，利率本身已 不再是市场瞩目的看点，真正的悬念和焦点在于未来的政策路径指引。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪对上证报记者表示，美联储内部存在显著分歧，部分官员对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December, influenced by multiple factors including inflation, employment, and economic data [1][3][9] Inflation and Employment - Inflation data shows a "moderate decline" with core inflation remaining sticky, which keeps the Fed cautious despite the November CPI rising 2.7% year-on-year [5][9] - The labor market shows "job growth but rising unemployment," with November non-farm payrolls increasing by 227,000, indicating resilience but also necessitating rate cuts to stabilize employment [4][10] Economic Data and Growth - The U.S. economy remains robust with a projected GDP growth of 2.8% in Q3 2024, but growth expectations have been downgraded, prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts to "stabilize growth" [8][9] Internal Fed Dynamics - There are internal divisions within the Fed regarding the decision to cut rates, with dovish officials advocating for action to prevent worsening employment conditions, while hawkish officials express caution [7][10] External Influences - Trump's policies, including tariffs and potential fiscal stimulus, introduce uncertainty and inflationary risks, influencing the Fed's decision to act cautiously [6][10]

Group 1 - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has surged from 62% to 87% according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "FedWatch" tool, indicating strong market expectations for a 25 basis point cut during the upcoming FOMC meeting [1][6] - Morgan Stanley has revised its forecast, now expecting the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting, a shift from previous expectations that cuts would be delayed until 2026 [1][3] - Recent economic signals, including a slight increase in unemployment from 4.3% to 4.4% and relatively mild inflation data, have created a conducive environment for a rate cut [8] Group 2 - There is significant internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding the decision to cut rates, with some officials advocating for aggressive cuts to support the economy, while others express concerns about rising inflation pressures [3][4] - Notable figures such as New York Fed President John Williams and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly have indicated a dovish stance, suggesting that further adjustments to policy may be necessary to avoid risks to the labor market [3][4] - The market has largely priced in the expectation of a 0.25% rate cut, with analysts noting that the Fed typically avoids surprising the market when its policy direction is clear [6][10] Group 3 - The latest economic data supports the expectation of a rate cut, with employment growth exceeding expectations but accompanied by a slight rise in the unemployment rate, indicating a nuanced labor market [8] - JPMorgan had previously predicted that the Fed would cut rates by 25 basis points at each of the next four meetings, potentially lowering the policy rate to 3.5% [8] - The focus is shifting towards how the Fed will balance its dual mandate of controlling inflation while supporting employment, making the upcoming rate decision a critical event for global financial markets [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December have changed dramatically, with the probability of a cut now falling below 50% after previously being nearly fully priced in [2][4] - Many traders believe that the decreasing likelihood of a rate cut in December could trigger a sell-off in the markets, as evidenced by significant declines in European and U.S. stock indices [6] - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressed skepticism about the necessity of a rate cut in December, citing stronger-than-expected economic resilience and indicating that he has not yet made a decision on the best course of action for the upcoming monetary policy meeting [8][10] Group 2 - A month ago, the market had a 95% probability of a rate cut, but uncertainty has increased due to a lack of official data during the government shutdown, leading to concerns among Fed officials about making decisions in a "data blackout" [11] - Boston Fed President Susan Collins suggested that interest rates should remain at current levels for some time to balance inflation, which is around 3%, and a weakening labor market, while other previously dovish officials have also shifted towards a more hawkish stance [11][12] - The recent divergence within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) complicates the decision-making process for Chairman Powell, who may need to consider a compromise approach, potentially signaling that further rate cuts are unlikely after a possible December cut [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut was accompanied by hawkish signals from Chairman Powell, dampening market expectations for further cuts by year-end [1][5] Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4%, the lowest level in three years [1] - Powell refuted the market's belief that a December rate cut was certain, stating that this outlook was "far from guaranteed" [1][5] - Following Powell's comments, the probability of a December rate cut plummeted from 95% to 65%, impacting major indices negatively [1] Group 2: Internal Disagreements - The latest rate decision passed with a vote of 10 in favor and 2 against, revealing significant internal divisions within the committee [4] - Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid voted against the cut, favoring a hold on rates, while Fed Governor Stephen Miran advocated for a larger cut of 50 basis points [4] - Powell acknowledged a "growing chorus" of officials questioning the need for further easing, indicating a shift in sentiment among decision-makers [4] Group 3: Economic Data Uncertainty - The government shutdown has led to a lack of economic data, increasing uncertainty around future rate decisions [6][7] - Powell noted that missing data could lead to "very high uncertainty" regarding the economic outlook, complicating decision-making [6] - The absence of key labor market indicators has hindered officials' ability to resolve their differences [6] Group 4: Inflation and Employment Dynamics - The core debate within the Fed revolves around balancing inflation control with addressing economic slowdown [9] - Some officials are wary of excessive rate cuts that could overheat the economy and sustain inflation above the 2% target [9] - Recent labor reports indicate a sharp slowdown in job growth, with average monthly additions around 29,000, significantly lower than the previous year's average of 82,000 [9]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a widening divide between Wall Street's expectation of imminent rate cuts and the caution expressed by regional Fed presidents due to persistent inflation concerns [2][3] - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack indicated that inflation is moving in the wrong direction and may not return to the 2% target until the end of 2027, advocating for a restrictive stance [2] - Market sentiment is largely ignoring the Fed's caution, with approximately 90% of investors betting on a 25 basis point rate cut during the October 28-29 meeting, and 70% expecting another cut in December [2] Group 2 - Concerns about a potential downturn in the labor market are being raised, with New York Fed President John Williams warning against harming employment objectives [3] - The upcoming release of key economic data, including the September CPI, employment report, and preliminary Q3 GDP, is seen as critical for determining the Fed's policy direction [3] - The Fed faces a balancing act between premature easing and excessive tightening, as inflation remains above target while signs of employment slowdown emerge [3]

Group 1 - The current trading price of gold T+D is around 851.22 CNY per gram, with a slight increase of 0.09% [1] - The highest price reached today is 854.20 CNY per gram, while the lowest is 846.66 CNY per gram, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] - Technical analysis suggests that resistance levels are between 850-860 CNY per gram, and support levels are between 820-840 CNY per gram [3] Group 2 - The ongoing debate within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy is intensifying, with some officials advocating for significant interest rate cuts while others maintain a cautious approach [2] - The outcome of this internal debate is expected to have profound implications for the future trajectory of the U.S. and global economy [2] - The ability of Fed Chair Powell to reconcile these differences and balance inflation and employment goals will be a focal point for global markets [2]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1] - The decision was influenced by indicators showing a slowdown in economic activity, job growth, and a rise in inflation [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the focus on the labor market and the challenges of balancing rising inflation with a weakening job market [1] Economic Forecasts - The median forecast for the U.S. real GDP growth rate for 2025 is 1.6% [2] - The median forecast for the unemployment rate is 4.5% [2] - The median forecast for the inflation rate is 3% [2] Market Reactions - Following the rate cut, U.S. stock markets closed mixed, the dollar index fell before rebounding, and gold prices experienced fluctuations [3] - Analysts predict a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts by the end of the year and an additional 125 basis points in 2026 [3] - Economic risks are highlighted, with concerns about the reliability of U.S. sovereign credit rather than private debt [3]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1] - The decision was influenced by slowing economic activity, job growth, and rising inflation, with the Fed indicating a careful assessment of future data and economic risks [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the focus on the labor market, stating that lowering rates could assist those struggling to find jobs [1] Economic Forecasts - The median forecast for the U.S. real GDP growth rate for 2025 is 1.6%, with an unemployment rate forecast of 4.5% and an inflation rate forecast of 3% [2] Market Reactions - Following the rate cut, U.S. stock markets showed mixed results, the dollar index fell before rebounding, and gold prices experienced fluctuations [3] - Analysts predict a total rate cut of 75 basis points by the end of the year and an additional 125 basis points in the following year [3] - Economic concerns were raised regarding the potential trust crisis in U.S. government credit, rather than private debt, as a result of the rate cut [3]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024 [1] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated that the decision was made after balancing the risks of inflation and employment, noting a slower and smaller impact of tariffs on inflation and a weakening labor market [1] - Stephen Milan was confirmed as a new Fed governor, filling the vacancy left by the resignation of Adriana Kugler, with his term ending on January 31, 2026 [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates reflects a shift towards acknowledging the increased risk of promoting employment [1] - Powell emphasized the importance of data-driven arguments in maintaining the Fed's independence, despite concerns about Milan's dual role in the White House and the Fed [2] - Milan was the only voting member to dissent, advocating for a 50 basis point cut instead of the 25 basis points that were implemented [1]