随着10月议息会议临近，美联储内部与市场的分歧正迅速拉大。一边是笃定降息势在必行的华尔街，一边是因通胀居高不下而呼吁谨 慎再谨慎的地方联储主席。双方围绕价格压力与就业风险的权衡展开激烈博弈，政策路径悬念陡升。 本周一，克利夫兰联储新任主席贝丝·哈马克在法兰克福直言，通胀正朝错误方向发展，预计要到2027年底才能回到2%，因此必须维 持限制性立场。圣路易斯联储主席阿尔贝托·穆萨莱姆亦呼应，称决策者应顶住高于目标的通胀，不可因单月数据波动而仓促宽松。堪 萨斯城联储的杰夫·施密德、芝加哥联储的奥斯坦·古尔斯比也陆续发声，强调当前政策仅略偏紧，提前降息或令抗通胀成果付诸东流。 然而，市场对此充耳不闻。CMEFedWatch显示，约九成投资者押注10月28-29日会议降息25个基点，七成预计12月再降。 联邦基金期货隐含利率路径与美联储6月点阵图出现显著背离：当时有10名官员预测年内共三次降息，9人支持两次或更少；如今鹰派 阵营更因8月核心PCE同比2.9%、整体PCE同比2.7%的粘性数据而底气大增。 分歧的另一面是对劳动力市场下行的担忧。纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯提醒，勿对就业使命造成不应有的伤害；理事米歇尔·鲍曼 ...

摘要今日周五（9月26日）亚盘时段，黄金T+D目前交投于850元附近，截至发稿，黄金T+D暂报851.22 元/克，涨幅0.09%，最高触及854.20元/克，最低下探846.66元/克。目前来看，黄金T+D短线偏向震荡走 势。 目前，美联储内部的这场货币政策"路线之争"仍在持续发酵。米兰凭借其频繁的公开亮相，如同"舌战 群儒"，竭力为大幅降息争取支持，但其观点在美联储内部仍显孤立。而包括古尔斯比、施密德在内的 多数官员，则坚守着谨慎行事的底线。 这场辩论的结果，将深刻影响美国乃至全球经济的未来走向。美联储主席鲍威尔如何调和分歧、凝聚共 识，在通胀与就业这两个目标之间走好钢丝，将是接下来全球市场关注的绝对焦点。这场内部分歧的公 开化，也预示着未来货币政策的走向将充满更大的不确定性和波动性。 【最新黄金t+d行情解析】 黄金t+d技术要点：上压850-860元/克，下撑820-840元/克。破850元/克可望涨至860元；失守800元/克或 续跌。现处关键节点，紧盯突破动向。 今日周五（9月26日）亚盘时段，黄金t+d目前交投于850元附近，截至发稿，黄金t+d暂报851.22元/克， 涨幅0.09%，最高触及 ...

声明说，在考虑进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间时，公开市场委员会将仔细评估后续数据、不断变化 的经济前景及风险平衡。 新华财经纽约9月17日电（记者徐静）美国联邦储备委员会17日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将 联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继 2024年三次降息后再次降息。 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明说，近期指标显示，美国上半年经济活动增长放 缓，就业增长放缓，通胀率有所上升。鉴于风险平衡变化，委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25 个基点。 美联储主席鲍威尔在会后举行的新闻发布会上说，本次会议的注意力全部集中在就业市场上，"现在没 有无风险的途径"。一些人现在"很难找到工作"，降低利率将有利于帮助陷入困境的劳动力市场。 鲍威尔认为，特朗普政府的关税措施可能会在今年剩余时间乃至2026年"继续推高"商品价格，关税对经 济活动和通胀的总体影响仍有待观察。对于政策制定者来说，在不断上升的通胀和疲软的劳动力市场之 间取得平衡是一个困境。 参加此次货币政策会议的美联储官员对2025年美国实际国内生产总值增长率的中位数预测值为 ...

新华社纽约9月17日电 综述｜美联储年内首次降息 通胀就业难平衡 美联储主席鲍威尔在会后举行的新闻发布会上说，本次会议的注意力全部集中在就业市场上，"现在没 有无风险的途径"。一些人现在"很难找到工作"，降低利率将有利于帮助陷入困境的劳动力市场。 鲍威尔认为，特朗普政府的关税措施可能会在今年剩余时间乃至2026年"继续推高"商品价格，关税对经 济活动和通胀的总体影响仍有待观察。对于政策制定者来说，在不断上升的通胀和疲软的劳动力市场之 间取得平衡是一个困境。 参加此次货币政策会议的美联储官员对2025年美国实际国内生产总值增长率的中位数预测值为1.6%， 对失业率的中位数预测值为4.5%，对通胀率的中位数预测值为3%。 美联储宣布降息后，美国股市当天收盘涨跌不一，美元指数大跌后反弹，金价震荡下跌。 富国银行投资研究所高级全球市场策略师斯科特·雷恩表示，此次降息符合市场普遍预期。德国商业银 行大宗商品分析师卡斯滕·弗里奇预计，美联储将在今年年底前一共降息75个基点，明年将进一步降息 125个基点。 经济学家彼得·希夫认为，降息将加剧美国政府的信任危机，真正的经济风险并非来自私人债务，而是 来自美国主权信用是否可靠 ...

美联储17日发布的联邦公开市场委员会货币政策会议纪要显示，在12名投票人中，米兰是唯一持不同意 见的人，他支持降息50个基点。 在当天的记者会上，在面对媒体记者有关"米兰仍在白宫任职，如何能保持美联储在公众眼中的独立 性"的提问时，鲍威尔作出如下回应。 "今天我们欢迎一位新的美联储理事。正如我们一直以来所做的，美联储联邦公开市场委员会在追求我 们的双重法定目标上保持团结一致，我们坚定致力于维护我们的独立性。美联储19名决策者中有12人会 基于轮流投票原则（参与政策决定），所以仅靠其中一位不能真正改变什么，除非他拥有令人难以置信 的说服力，才可能真正推动事情发展。在我们工作的环境中，唯一的方法是根据数据和你对经济的理 解，提出强有力的论据，这才是最重要的。我认为这才是美联储的工作方式。如果这是美联储的基因， 那就不会改变。" 当地时间9月17日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间 下调25个基点，降至4.00%-4.25%之间。这是美联储自2024年12月以来的首次降息。 美联储主席鲍威尔随后在新闻发布会上解释称，降息是在平衡了通胀与就业的风险后做出的决定。 鲍威尔说，"现 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated an openness to interest rate cuts in the coming months despite inflation risks [2][3] - Powell emphasized that the U.S. economy shows resilience amid high tariffs and stricter immigration policies, but labor market and economic growth have significantly slowed [2][3] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.9% year-on-year in July, with tariffs contributing to higher prices [2] Group 2: Economic Challenges and Policy Adjustments - Powell identified new challenges for the U.S. economy, including higher tariffs reshaping global trade and stricter immigration policies leading to a sharp slowdown in labor supply growth [3] - The Federal Reserve's revised long-term goals include the removal of the "average inflation targeting" and a return to a more flexible inflation target [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September surged from approximately 75% to about 91% following Powell's remarks [4] Group 3: Global Economic Concerns - The theme of the Jackson Hole conference was "Labor Market Transformation: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy," highlighting the threat of global population aging to economic growth and price stability [6] - Central bank leaders warned that developed countries face severe labor shortages due to low birth rates and increased life expectancy, which could hinder economic growth [6][7] - The potential for wage-price spirals exists as labor shortages may empower workers to demand higher wages, contributing to inflationary pressures [6] Group 4: Importance of Foreign Labor - ECB President Lagarde noted that the influx of foreign labor has provided growth momentum for the Eurozone economy, countering the effects of reduced working hours and declining real wages [7] - Bank of England Governor Bailey emphasized the urgent challenges posed by demographic changes and declining productivity, stressing the need for increased labor market participation to boost economic growth [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Jackson Hole symposium highlighted the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve, with internal disagreements on the appropriateness of potential interest rate cuts amid rising inflation and a weakening labor market [1][2][3]. Economic Dilemma: Inflation and Employment - Policymakers are grappling with high inflation rates above the 2% target and signs of labor market weakness, creating conflicting signals that complicate decision-making [2]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted the difficulty of navigating these contradictory signals during a transformative period [2]. - Political pressure on the Federal Reserve is increasing, particularly from former President Donald Trump, who has been vocal about pushing for interest rate cuts [2][3]. Interest Rate Path: Rate Cut Expectations and Internal Disagreements - Jerome Powell's speech indicated a potential for interest rate cuts at the upcoming September meeting, but consensus among policymakers is lacking compared to previous years [3]. - Recent data shows inflation stagnating above the Fed's target, while labor market indicators present a mixed picture, leading to growing divisions among policymakers [3]. - The potential for dissenting votes at the September meeting is heightened, especially with upcoming nominations to fill vacancies on the Fed's board [3]. Pressure on Independence: Maintaining Federal Reserve Autonomy - The Federal Reserve is under scrutiny from the White House, with discussions about political pressures permeating informal interactions at the symposium [4]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is viewed as crucial for achieving its dual mandate of price stability and full employment [5][6]. New Policy Framework: Returning to Fundamental Goals - Powell introduced a new policy framework aimed at guiding policymakers in achieving inflation and employment targets, moving away from previous focuses on low inflation challenges [5]. - The emphasis on maintaining the Fed's independence is seen as essential for effectively addressing inflation and unemployment [5][6]. Global Impact: Ripple Effects of Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decisions have far-reaching implications beyond the U.S., influencing global economic conditions [6]. - Following Powell's remarks, the euro appreciated against the dollar, indicating potential downward pressure on inflation in the Eurozone [6].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting is highly anticipated, with market expectations leaning towards a potential interest rate cut in September, influenced by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statements [1][5][11]. Group 1: Market Expectations - Market bets indicate a greater than 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with some institutions speculating on a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [1][5]. - The current economic indicators, including mixed inflation and employment data, create uncertainty around Powell's potential decisions [5][9]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. CPI data showed a slowdown, providing some reassurance to the market, but core inflation remains stubbornly high, complicating the Fed's decision-making [5][9]. - The July non-farm payroll data was weak, raising concerns about the economic outlook, although stronger housing starts data provided some support for hawkish sentiments [5][9]. Group 3: Potential Market Reactions - Powell's statements could lead to significant market movements; a clear signal for a rate cut could boost U.S. stocks and weaken the dollar, while a cautious approach could dampen market sentiment [7][9]. - The outcome of Powell's speech is expected to influence global capital flows, particularly towards emerging markets if the dollar depreciates [7][9]. Group 4: Historical Context - Historically, the Jackson Hole meeting has been a critical point for the Fed to signal policy changes, with past events leading to notable market volatility [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing internal divisions within the Federal Reserve and the market's anticipation of clear signals from Chairman Powell at the upcoming Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference [1][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Divisions - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a clear split between hawkish and dovish factions, leading to a more ambiguous policy outlook [3][4]. - The dovish camp, represented by figures like New York Fed President Williams, is more concerned about inflation, while the hawkish camp, including Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, is focused on the risks of economic downturn and labor market slowdown [4][5]. Group 2: Importance of Jackson Hole Conference - The Jackson Hole conference, scheduled for August 21-23, is highlighted as a critical platform for Powell to announce any significant policy shifts, particularly if the Fed's focus shifts from combating inflation to prioritizing full employment [2][7]. - Powell's communication remains dominant despite the internal divisions, as evidenced by a recent 9-2 voting outcome, underscoring his influence over the committee [6].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has escalated, with Trump openly criticizing Powell and suggesting potential replacements for the Fed chair position, indicating a power struggle that could impact the future of the U.S. economy [1][2][4]. Group 1: Trump's Criticism of Powell - Trump has been vocally critical of Powell, labeling him as "terrible" and "stupid," and has expressed a desire to replace him, which is unusual for a sitting president [1][2]. - The primary reason for Trump's criticism appears to be Powell's reluctance to lower interest rates as Trump desires, aiming to reduce borrowing costs for the federal government [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Context - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% since January 2025, following three consecutive rate cuts starting in September 2024, which Trump wants to see reduced to 1% [4]. - Economic uncertainty remains high, with economists warning that Trump's tariffs and unstable trade policies could lead to a slowdown in the labor market and rising inflation, complicating the Fed's decision-making [4][5]. Group 3: Political Implications - Analysts suggest that Trump's attacks on Powell serve to shift blame for economic downturns caused by his own policies, effectively making Powell a "scapegoat" for the administration's economic challenges [5][6]. - The potential for Trump to replace Powell raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, as any new appointee may face pressure to align with Trump's economic agenda [8][12]. Group 4: Future of the Federal Reserve - Trump's administration has begun to exert pressure on Powell, citing budget overruns in Fed headquarters renovations as a possible justification for his removal [8]. - Despite the possibility of appointing a new Fed chair, experts caution that the new appointee would still need to navigate the consensus-driven nature of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to implement any significant policy changes [9][12].