2026 年 1 月 5 日，全球贵金属期货市场迎来标志性行情 —— 纽约商品交易所(COMEX)黄金期货主力合约(2026 年 2 月交割)在亚市早盘一度失守 4360 美元 / 盎司关口，日内涨幅收窄至 0.71%，但随后在避险资金推动下快速反弹，午盘时段突破 4380 美元 / 盎司，日内涨幅扩大至 1.18%，创下 2025 年以来的单日 最大涨幅;同期现货黄金价格同步走高，先后突破 4360 美元 / 盎司(日内涨 0.69%)与 4370 美元 / 盎司(日内涨 0.86%)，截至当日收盘，纽约期金收报 4382.5 美元 / 盎司，较前一交易日上涨 51.3 美元，涨幅 1.18%，成交量达 280 万手，较前一交易日增长 23%，成为当天全球金融交易市场中最受关注的品种之一。 新浪财经《今日期货市场重要快讯汇总》指出，"1 月 5 日纽约期金的上涨，核心驱动力是美国对委内瑞拉军事行动引发的避险情绪升温，叠加市场对美联 储 2026 年降息的预期，双重逻辑推动资金涌入黄金期货市场"。本文将以 1 月 5 日纽约期金交易为核心，详细描述其当日价格波动、驱动因素、市场参与者 行为及与宏观环境的关联， ...

Core Insights - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is pushing the $2 trillion Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) market into unprecedented territory, as the inability to release October's inflation data directly impacts TIPS and inflation swap markets [1][2] - The reliance of TIPS on Consumer Price Index (CPI) data means that the absence of this data could lead to significant market disruptions, with potential activation of a "backup plan" for calculating inflation adjustments [2][3] Group 1: Market Impact - The inability to publish October's CPI data could trigger the use of an estimated CPI value based on the last 12 months' changes, which would not be retroactively adjusted even if actual data is released later [2][3] - Concerns over data quality are already affecting investor demand for TIPS, as investors doubt their ability to hedge against real inflation effectively [5][6] - Despite the uncertainty, the market remains relatively calm, with some analysts attributing the weak performance of TIPS to broader factors such as falling oil prices [7][8] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The current situation is compared to the "debt ceiling crisis," indicating a critical moment for market participants to monitor [1][3] - Investors are currently not in a state of panic, as the outflow of funds from TIPS-related ETFs has not significantly impacted the overall size of these funds [7] - Experts suggest that as long as price data remains free from political manipulation, the overall market dynamics may not change drastically [8]