来源：宏观对冲陈凯丰Kevin - 与去年一样，市场情绪、估值和仓位在多个方面似乎都已达到高位，如果实际业绩不及预期，可能会 加剧投资者的负面反应。 - 因此，在我们进入本周至关重要的第四季度财报季之际，市场和经济格局就是如此。FactSet的预测显 示，2025年第四季度标普500指数每股收益（EPS）将同比增长8.3%，营收增长7.7%。值得注意的是， 标普500指数有望实现连续第10个季度EPS增长和连续第21个季度营收增长，我们认为，这种持续强劲 的盈利势头有助于解释为什么近年来股市持续上涨。 - 周二，预计12月消费者物价指数（CPI）总体指数和核心指数同比增幅均为2.7%。周三，将公布12月 生产者物价指数（PPI）。这两项数据更新将有助于在政府停摆影响之后，更清晰地评估近期美国的通 胀动态。 - 总而言之：我们认为，第四季度财报季的第一周可能会为本月剩余时间的股市走势定下基调。主要银 行在信贷、利润率和资本配置方面的强劲业绩更新有助于增强投资者信心，因为在未来几周，财报季将 迅速扩展到美国其他企业。然而，如果支出过高或业绩指引趋于谨慎，市场反应可能会更加波动，鉴于 上述一些较为悲观的因素，市场叙 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the slowdown in U.S. job growth is more likely due to a decrease in worker demand rather than a decline in labor supply caused by tightened immigration policies [1] - Monthly job additions in the U.S. have decreased from approximately 150,000 in 2024 to about 50,000 in the first half of 2025 [1] - Daly noted that the simultaneous decline in labor demand and supply has kept the unemployment rate stable [1] Group 2 - The conclusions regarding the labor market are crucial for the debate on whether the Federal Reserve should further lower interest rates [2] - Daly believes that the impact of tariffs on prices has not led to widespread and sustained inflation dynamics, remaining largely confined to the goods sector [2] - The Federal Reserve needs to assess whether the U.S. economy is still at risk of inflation or if it is on the verge of an AI-driven productivity boom that could promote growth without raising prices [2]

格隆汇9月15日丨投资者在美联储降息之前，不愿建立新头寸，因此美国国债收益率在欧洲午盘交易中 持稳或小幅下跌。Exness 分析师Van Ha Trinh在一份报告中表示："投资者正等待观察通胀动态和美联储 的指引是否会进一步改变预期。"这位金融市场策略师指出，若政策宽松的速度或规模出现任何意外， 收益率都可能产生剧烈反应。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of the European Central Bank, Lane, emphasizes that data dependency extends beyond monetary policy to include other policy settings, as changes in international and domestic policy frameworks are highly correlated with future inflation dynamics [1] Group 1 - The importance of data in shaping monetary policy and its implications for broader policy settings is highlighted [1] - The relationship between policy frameworks and inflation dynamics is underscored, indicating a need for careful monitoring of both international and domestic changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that any interest rate hike measures will depend on three factors related to inflation dynamics [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring inflation dynamics to determine the timing and extent of any potential interest rate increases [1] Inflation Dynamics - Ueda emphasized that the decision on interest rates will hinge on three specific elements of inflation, although the details of these elements were not disclosed in the article [1]

Core Viewpoint - Russian President Putin stated that inflation dynamics are better than many experts had anticipated [1] Group 1 - The current inflation trends in Russia are showing more favorable outcomes compared to previous expert predictions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of inflation dynamics spiraling out of control is significantly lower than in 2022, according to the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England's assessment indicates a more stable inflation outlook compared to the previous year [1] - The Deputy Governor emphasized that current economic conditions are more favorable for controlling inflation [1] - There is a general consensus that inflationary pressures are easing, reducing the risk of extreme inflation scenarios [1]