MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 据"网信中国"微信公众号消息，近期，国家网信办会同中国证监会深入整治涉资本市场网上不实信息， 依法处置一批炮制谣言、非法荐股的账号。"爱在深秋-郑老师"等账号炒作股市走势，随意预测涨跌， 博取流量。抖音账号"爱在深秋-郑老师"长期、频繁地通过煽动性或暗示性话语随意预测股市涨跌，博 取流量。涉及的账号已被依法依约关闭。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

Core Viewpoint - The optimism surrounding the potential end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history is driving market sentiment, with upcoming Treasury bond auctions expected to be a key indicator for stock market performance [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On Monday, U.S. stock markets rebounded significantly, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising over 380 points to approximately 47,369 points, the S&P 500 increasing by 1.54%, and the Nasdaq Composite leading with a 2.27% gain [1]. - The strong demand in the $58 billion three-year Treasury bond auction is viewed as a positive signal, enhancing expectations for the upcoming $42 billion ten-year and $25 billion thirty-year bond auctions [1]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - LPL Financial's Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Lawrence Gillum, suggests that if the government shutdown ends, the U.S. economy could shift from a "worst-case scenario" to a "relative normalization" phase, despite ongoing inflation pressures and growth slowdowns [2]. - The backlog of economic data due to the shutdown is expected to be released gradually, rather than all at once, which may impact market perceptions of economic strength [2]. Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - Analysts indicate that the upcoming bond auctions will serve as critical indicators of market demand, with expectations for a "relatively good" overall response [1]. - Concerns arise that weak demand in the bond auctions could lead to higher long-term interest rates, negatively affecting stock market performance [2]. - The bond market is currently in a "delicate moment," with the absence of economic data leading to increased uncertainty among investors regarding economic strength [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is anticipated, raising questions about the subsequent impact on stock markets, including US, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 1: US Stock Market - The potential for opportunities in the US stock market post-rate cut is significant, as lower interest rates typically stimulate economic growth and increase corporate earnings [1] - Challenges may arise from inflation concerns and the potential for slower economic recovery, which could dampen investor sentiment [1] Group 2: A-Shares Market - A-shares may benefit from increased liquidity and investor confidence following the Fed's rate cut, potentially leading to a rally in stock prices [1] - However, the market could face headwinds from domestic economic conditions and regulatory changes that may impact growth prospects [1] Group 3: Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market is likely to see a positive reaction to the Fed's rate cut, as it may attract foreign investment and boost local stocks [1] - Nonetheless, geopolitical tensions and local economic challenges could pose risks to sustained market performance [1]

Group 1 - The legality of the tariffs imposed by former President Trump is under scrutiny, with the Supreme Court agreeing to expedite the case, which could lead to a ruling by the end of the year [1][2] - If the Supreme Court rules against the tariffs, it is estimated that up to $100 billion in tariffs could be refunded, significantly boosting the profits of affected companies [2][3] - The outcome of the Supreme Court's decision is expected to have a substantial impact on the stock market, with analysts suggesting that a ruling against the tariffs could lead to a bullish outlook for the market in 2026 [2][3] Group 2 - There is increasing uncertainty in the market as companies and investors await the government's response to potential legal setbacks regarding the tariffs [3][4] - Government officials, including Treasury Secretary Yellen, have indicated that they expect the Supreme Court to uphold the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to justify the tariffs, but alternative legal measures may be considered if necessary [3][4] - The current trade environment is expected to remain uncertain, with companies needing to navigate the implications of the tariffs and their potential legal challenges [3][4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View - The stock market declined today, with almost all industries falling, led by the national defense and military industry, which dropped 5.83%. This was mainly due to the landing of the military parade ceremony, leading to a correction of the previous optimistic pricing. The previous day's large divergence between bulls and bears and the change in sentiment were further verified today. The trading activity of funds decreased significantly, with the turnover of the two markets dropping to around 2.36 trillion yuan, and the basis of stock index futures declined. Overseas, concerns about the UK's fiscal issues intensified, indirectly affecting the sentiment of the US bond market, leading to an increase in US bond yields, a rise in the US dollar index, a depreciation of the RMB, and an increase in market risk aversion. In the short term, the stock market is under pressure due to both sentiment correction and external information [4]. 3) Summary by Related Sections Market Review - The stock index shrank and declined today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 0.68%. The turnover of the two markets decreased by 51.0905 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties shrank and declined [2]. Important Information - The yield on the 30-year US Treasury rose to 5% for the first time since July. - The ceremony commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War was held in Beijing [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Reduce long positions or adopt a covered call strategy [5]. Futures Index Market Observation | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Volume (10,000 lots) | Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | -0.96 | 19.6242 | 0.0876 | 28.6469 | -1.1866 | | IH | -1.29 | 8.6105 | 0.5491 | 10.2538 | -0.7211 | | IC | -1.30 | 16.6146 | -0.669 | 24.487 | -0.9914 | | IM | -1.22 | 33.8297 | 0.0551 | 39.925 | -0.2021 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | -1.16 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | -0.65 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 0.18 | | Turnover of the Two Markets (100 million yuan) | 23640.86 | | Turnover MoM (100 million yuan) | -5109.05 | [6]

Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - The recent negotiations between China and the US resulted in a temporary suspension of most tariffs, with the US reducing tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% and China lowering tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% [3][4] - The current tariff reduction measures are temporary and will last for 90 days, during which further negotiations are expected [4][10] Group 2: Employment Impact - As of 2024, China's import and export sector employs approximately 180 million people, with 40 million in direct employment and 140 million in related upstream and downstream industries [2] Group 3: Industry Impact - The tariff negotiations have led to significant stock price increases in the electric vehicle supply chain and related industries in China [5][8] - The highest tariffs are still applied to syringes and needles due to concerns over fentanyl, which remains a critical issue in the negotiations [7] Group 4: Economic Impact - China's GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2024 is reported at 5.4% [10] - Different scenarios regarding future tariffs could impact GDP growth, with potential reductions of 0.3%, 0.9%, and 2% under optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenarios, respectively [12] Group 5: Stock Market Impact - The current price-to-earnings ratio for China's Shanghai Composite Index is 13.8, indicating it is still in a historically undervalued range [20] - Following the announcement of tariff negotiations, the stock market showed positive reactions, recovering losses from earlier declines [22][26]

我们总是对盈利零容忍，而对亏损却很放纵。一小赚就跑，一亏就死扛，总是在"入场亏损 - 持有死扛 - 解套就跑"的小赚大亏中循环着，能扛到解套还算幸运，很多人都是在扛不住大亏时，悔恨离场，似乎 天生是来给市场送钱的，而不是来赚钱的。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250205— DeepSeek版：TL赠与我的（+关税担忧+PMI数据低于预期+午后资金面转松+股市下 跌=中下)】 资金面先紧后松，长债收益率明显下行。 央行公开市场开展6970亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有14135亿元逆回购到期。净回笼7165亿元。 上午资金面均衡略偏紧，午后转松，资金价格偏贵。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 02. 05) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1. ...