日本策略 Japan Strategy 海上观日：2026 日本股市展望 Japan Stock Market 2026 Outlook [Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 5 Jan 2026 展望 2026 年，我们认为 2026 年将是标志着日本 30 年来重新进入通胀型经济的第一年。随着日 本国内居民购买力的提升和政府和民间投资的加速增长，内需将进一步恢复。对上市公司监管的 强化和经济政策的推进将推动日本企业更积极更有效率的开展投资，从而改善市场对上市公司 ROE 的预期，带动日本市场整体估值的提升。 [Table_yejiao1] 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国 际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证 券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer) [Table_hea ...

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - Goldman Sachs indicates that if Iran disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude oil prices could spike to $110 per barrel, with a potential increase to $90 per barrel if Iranian oil supply decreases by 1.75 million barrels per day [1] - The report from Mitsubishi UFJ highlights that the Philippine peso, South Korean won, and Thai baht are more susceptible to rising oil prices, with a $10 per barrel increase potentially reducing Asia's current account positions by 0.2% to 0.9% of GDP [3] - Panmure Liberum warns that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, stock markets could face a decline of 10% to 20%, with significant inflationary impacts similar to those seen in 2022 [4] Group 2: Currency and Economic Outlook - HSBC analysts express concerns over the uncertainty of U.S. policies, suggesting that the dollar may face further depreciation, with the euro expected to rise to 1.20 against the dollar by Q4 [2] - The report from Saxo Bank notes that countries heavily reliant on oil imports, such as India and Thailand, will face multiple challenges including rising energy costs and currency depreciation [2] Group 3: Investment Trends - Bank of America reports a growing interest in Japanese stocks as investors seek diversification due to high valuations in U.S. equities, despite ongoing trade uncertainties between the U.S. and Japan [2] - Citic Securities highlights the transformation of traditional cross-border payment systems, suggesting potential growth for participating banks amid a reshaping of the payment landscape [5]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are increasingly interested in Japanese stocks due to high valuations in the US stock market, prompting a search for diversification [1] Group 1: Investor Sentiment - There is a noticeable rise in investor interest in Japanese equities as a response to elevated US stock valuations [1] - The need for diversification beyond US markets is a significant driver for this shift towards Japanese stocks [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - Signs of accelerated corporate reform in Japan are attracting global investors [1] - Japan's transition towards an "inflationary economy" is also a factor drawing investor attention [1] Group 3: Trade Concerns - Despite the growing interest, concerns remain regarding the trade outlook between the US and Japan [1] - The expiration of the US's suspension of "reciprocal" tariffs on several countries, including Japan, is approaching, adding uncertainty [1] - Ongoing discussions about a new trade agreement between the US and Japan are characterized by high uncertainty [1]