白银曾经被很多人当作饰品原料的金属，不仅在2025年创下了146%的暴涨纪录，远超黄金60%的涨幅，更在开年就迎来了中国稀土级别的出口管控。 这波管控到底意味着什么？全球都在抢的白银，为什么突然变得这么金贵？2026年这场白银热潮，还能继续疯狂下去吗？今天老哥就带大家把这件事彻底聊 透。 很多人对白银的认知还停留在饰品或者投资品上，但现在的白银，早已是支撑全球高科技产业发展的核心支柱，堪称科技革命的隐形基石。 之所以能在2025年迎来暴涨，核心原因就是刚需的爆发式增长，而这背后离不开三大高增长领域的强力拉动。 作为全球新能源转型的核心赛道，光伏产业的发展速度有目共睹，而白银就是光伏电池板的核心材料。 每一块高效太阳能电池板，都需要银浆来收集电流，没有白银，光伏电池的转换效率就会大打折扣。 它不仅是新能源车电池的重要组成部分，还广泛用于线束、传感器等关键部件。 要知道，一辆新能源车的白银用量是传统燃油车的好几倍，而全球电动汽车产业正以13%的年复合增长率高速发展，这无疑为白银需求提供了强劲的支撑。 根据行业预测，到2030年光伏行业的白银需求量将增至4.5亿盎司，仅这一个领域就会持续拉动白银需求的增长。 随着全 ...

日本策略 Japan Strategy 海上观日：2026 日本股市展望 Japan Stock Market 2026 Outlook [Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 5 Jan 2026 展望 2026 年，我们认为 2026 年将是标志着日本 30 年来重新进入通胀型经济的第一年。随着日 本国内居民购买力的提升和政府和民间投资的加速增长，内需将进一步恢复。对上市公司监管的 强化和经济政策的推进将推动日本企业更积极更有效率的开展投资，从而改善市场对上市公司 ROE 的预期，带动日本市场整体估值的提升。 [Table_yejiao1] 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国 际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证 券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer) [Table_hea ...

Group 1: Economic Context and Trends - China's value chain has rapidly expanded, becoming a key hub in global production networks, with domestic value added (DVA) consistently ranking first globally since 2000[6] - The complete industrial system of China has led to over 22% average global value added share in key manufacturing sectors, surpassing traditional manufacturing powerhouses like Germany and the USA[8] - The GVC position of China has steadily improved, indicating a shift from reliance on imported intermediate goods to becoming a supplier of high-value components[15] Group 2: Challenges and Strategic Responses - The international trade order faces challenges from technological hegemony and protectionism, leading to a decline in the degree of global value chain fragmentation[1] - China is actively addressing vertical supply chain risks by focusing on core technology breakthroughs and upgrading its industrial capabilities[19] - The shift from product export to multinational chain building is accelerating, with Chinese companies establishing overseas production and assembly bases to enhance supply chain resilience[30] Group 3: Future Outlook and Innovations - The modern service industry is emerging as a new driver for overall value chain upgrades, with significant contributions from sectors like industrial design and brand operations[24] - By 2025, China is expected to enter the top ten of the global innovation index, bolstered by advancements in AI, renewable energy, and healthcare[23] - Regional cooperation, such as the RCEP and the Belt and Road Initiative, is enhancing trade ties and reducing costs, with ASEAN becoming China's largest trading partner by 2023[31]

德赛西威 20251225 摘要 德赛西威预计中长期毛利率稳定在 20%左右，受益于传统合资品牌智驾 渗透率提升及海外业务收入溢价。公司通过与客户协商分担成本、上游 保供和下游稳定配套来应对物料价格上涨，特别是内存涨价。 座舱领域仍有单车价值量提升空间，高性能芯片具备市场潜力。随着 L3 自动驾驶推进，驾驶员和乘客对座舱需求增加，需要更高性能的芯片支 持，如特斯拉 Grok AI 交互体验需要硬件升级。 德赛西威明年智能驾驶领域增量客户主要来自今年未上车的传统品牌和 子品牌，他们将在明年逐步实施自驾方案。今年第四季度已看到自主品 牌采用英伟达高阶芯片，预示客户结构转变。 截至今年第三季度，德赛西威海外收入占比为 7.5%，预计全年不到 10%。明年第四季度将在塔塔项目上量产智能化舱驾一体方案，目标是 在 2030 年前将海外收入占比提高到 20%。 德赛西威与国内自驾芯片厂商保持紧密合作，具备从 OV 平台迁移到其 他平台的能力。机器人域控制器与车规级域控复用率高，公司已进入调 试和送样阶段，预计明年上半年会有小规模交付。 Q&A 德赛西威目前代工业务的现状及其对毛利率的影响如何？ 合作模式将保持稳定，即使是 ...

Core Points - Xiamen City has released a draft for public consultation on measures to promote the integrated circuit industry [2] - The measures include financial support for companies involved in core equipment development for integrated circuit manufacturing and testing, with subsidies up to 10 million yuan per year [2] - There is a focus on supporting key materials research, with subsidies up to 5 million yuan for companies developing critical materials for integrated circuits [2] - The initiative also targets strategic emerging industries, providing up to 5 million yuan for companies engaged in high-performance chip manufacturing and advanced packaging technology [2] Financial Support Measures - Companies developing core equipment for integrated circuit manufacturing can receive subsidies of up to 30% of their R&D expenses, capped at 10 million yuan annually [2] - For companies focused on key materials such as photolithography materials and semiconductor materials, subsidies can reach 5 million yuan, also at 30% of R&D expenses [2] - Companies addressing urgent needs in strategic sectors like AI and new energy can receive similar support for advanced manufacturing processes, capped at 5 million yuan [2]

分析师：邓淑斌 登记编码：S0730518030001 分析师：郑婷 登记编码：S0730524110001 分析师：徐至 登记编码：S0730525040001 相关报告 《坚定不移办好自己的事，着力抓好"四稳" ——4 月中央政治局会议关于经济工作部署》 2025-4-28 《后布雷顿森林体系下的全球资产价格走势 简析》2025-4-21 联系人：李智 投资要点： 风险提示：1、全球经济运行低增长大背景下，海外政策变动对国内经 济及 A 股市场运行带来挑战； 2、在预期"更加积极有为"的宏观政 策持续布局的前提下，增量政策推出力度不及预期，将影响到 A 股上 市公司盈利及投资者预期； 3、资本市场进一步深化改革中的阶段性政 策出台实施，对市场资金面、投资者预期可能产生一定冲击。 科创筑梦 数智引领 ——2026 年 A 股市场展望 证券研究报告 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 8 日 本报告版权属于中原证券研究所股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第 1页/共 11页 《我国科创债市场发展及民营企业参与度分 析》2025-9-24 《"落实落细"政策，巩固经济与资本市场回 ...

以高质量发展为例，中国旨在建设服务实体经济的现代化产业体系，培育新质生产力。这意味着在核心 技术上实现突破，从高性能芯片、量子计算到大型人工智能模型与深空探测。近年来的成果如"人工智 能+"行动，将渗透到科学研究、制造业乃至消费领域，创造从精准农业到城市规划都由人工智能赋能 的场景。 规划建议同样注重加强国内市场以及推动构建新发展格局。通过银发经济、低空经济，以及乡村旅游等 行业来得到提振。乡村振兴将加快农业现代化以及城乡融合发展。试想广袤农田配备智能灌溉与无人机 巡检，或乡村重生为生态旅游与电商中心。这些举措将缩小区域差距，优化中国经济布局，实现均衡增 长。在不平等加剧的世界里，这种对共同富裕的追求提供了值得效仿的范式。 绿色转型贯穿其中，推动建设美丽中国。作为全球可再生能源装机量最大的国家，中国承诺全面转向低 碳发展道路。这包括向世界输出可负担的绿色技术——从太阳能板到电动汽车——以帮助全球应对气候 变化。 当世界摇摆不定时，这次全会邀请我们向东看。在逆境中培育自立自强、推动绿色创新、优先共享繁 荣，中国开辟出一条让所有人都受益的进步道路。 新华社开普敦12月3日电（记者王晓梅 王雷）南非主流媒体《邮卫报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of achieving high-level technological self-reliance and strength as a foundation for national prosperity and security, outlining strategic goals, key tasks, and major initiatives for advancing China's technological innovation [1][2]. Strategic Deployment - Since the 18th National Congress, the central government has made significant strategic deployments to enhance technological self-reliance, leading to historic achievements and transformations in China's technology sector [2]. - The goal of building a technology power is clearly defined, with an emphasis on achieving high-level technological self-reliance as essential for national development [2]. New System for National Innovation - A new type of national system is being established to address profound changes in scientific research paradigms, focusing on collaborative innovation and leveraging national strategic technological forces [3]. - The system aims to integrate resources from national laboratories, research institutions, and leading enterprises to tackle major technological challenges [3]. Role of Enterprises in Innovation - Enterprises are recognized as the main body of innovation, with efforts to strengthen their role in integrating innovation elements and transforming technological achievements [4]. - A nurturing environment for technology-driven small and medium enterprises is being developed to enhance their growth and contribution to innovation [4]. Reform of the Technological System - The article highlights the necessity of reforming the technological system to create an efficient, collaborative, and open innovation framework, emphasizing the importance of leadership and coordination in technological tasks [5]. - Reforms include improving evaluation systems and fostering a culture of innovation within research and development [5]. Open Innovation Ecosystem - The importance of an open innovation ecosystem is stressed, with a focus on global collaboration and integration into international innovation networks [6][7]. - China is actively expanding international scientific and technological exchanges and cooperation, establishing key innovation centers [7]. Historical Achievements in Technology - Significant advancements in technology have been made, with China achieving a prominent position in various fields and producing a surge of major innovations [8]. - The country is moving towards becoming an innovative nation, solidifying the material and technological foundation for modernization [8]. Investment in Basic Research - Investment in research and development is increasing, with a projected expenditure of over 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a nearly 50% increase since 2020 [9]. - The focus on basic research is crucial for achieving breakthroughs and enhancing the foundation for technological self-reliance [9]. Core Technology Autonomy - The article discusses the importance of mastering key core technologies to ensure national economic security, highlighting advancements in various high-tech fields [10]. - Progress in self-developed technologies, such as high-performance chips and advanced equipment, is noted as a significant achievement [10]. Global Technological Competitiveness - China's technological competitiveness is on the rise, with improvements in innovation resource allocation and contributions to global technological innovation [11]. - The country aims to enhance its global innovation index ranking and establish itself as a key player in international innovation networks [11]. Integration of Technology and Industry - The integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation is emphasized as a key strategy for achieving high-level self-reliance [17]. - Efforts are being made to ensure seamless transitions from research to product development, enhancing the overall innovation ecosystem [17]. Reforming the Innovation Ecosystem - Continuous reforms in the technological system are necessary to foster a vibrant innovation ecosystem, focusing on removing barriers to innovation and enhancing collaboration [18]. - The article advocates for a supportive environment for original and disruptive innovations to accelerate the transition from a technological power to a technological strong nation [18].

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session has approved the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development," marking a critical period for achieving socialist modernization and laying a solid foundation for future development [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Goals and Development Strategy - The main goals for the "15th Five-Year Plan" include achieving significant results in high-quality development, enhancing self-reliance in technology, deepening reforms, improving social civilization, and increasing the quality of life for the people [2][3]. - By 2035, the aim is for per capita GDP to reach the level of moderately developed countries, reflecting confidence in China's long-term development prospects [2][3]. Group 2: High-Quality Development Focus - The theme of high-quality development continues from the "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing economic construction as the central focus for policy formulation [3][4]. - The plan aims to ensure reasonable growth in quantity while effectively enhancing quality, with a focus on optimizing macroeconomic governance [3][4]. Group 3: Strategic Tasks and Economic Structure - A series of strategic tasks have been outlined to ensure decisive progress in achieving socialist modernization, including the construction of a modern industrial system and the promotion of high-level technological self-reliance [4][5]. - The plan emphasizes the importance of solidifying the foundation of the real economy and enhancing the competitiveness of key industries such as chemicals, machinery, and shipbuilding [5][6]. Group 4: Innovation and Technological Advancement - The plan highlights the need for significant advancements in technology and innovation, with a focus on original innovation and the integration of technology with industry [5][6]. - The development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy, aerospace, and artificial intelligence is prioritized to create new economic growth points [5][6]. Group 5: Reform and Opening Up - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will implement over 300 reform measures aimed at deepening reforms and expanding high-level opening up, which will inject continuous vitality into the modernization process [6][7]. - The focus will shift from "following" to "leading" in terms of opening up, particularly in the service sector, with plans to expand pilot programs in various fields [7][8]. Group 6: People-Centric Development - The development strategy emphasizes a people-centered approach, aiming to translate the modernization blueprint into tangible benefits for the population [8][9]. - Key tasks include consolidating poverty alleviation achievements, promoting quality employment, and improving the income distribution system to enhance the quality of life [8][9].

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" marks the beginning of a new journey towards building a modern socialist country after achieving the first centenary goal, with significant progress and historical achievements in economic and social development [1][12][33] Economic Development - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the economic increment is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, surpassing the total economic output of the third-largest country in the world, contributing approximately 30% to global economic growth [4][31] - The scale of goods trade has increased by 32.4% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," maintaining the position of the world's largest trading nation for eight consecutive years [4] Innovation and Technology - The global innovation index ranking improved from 14th in 2020 to 10th in 2025, indicating stronger development momentum [6] - R&D expenditure is projected to grow nearly 50% by 2024 compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," with significant achievements in space exploration and high-tech manufacturing [20] Social Welfare - Key indicators of social welfare, such as compulsory education consolidation rates and insurance coverage for basic pension and medical care, have exceeded 95%, with life expectancy reaching 79 years [8][26] - The establishment of 114 national regional medical centers has benefited 560 million people through direct settlement for cross-provincial medical treatment [26] Ecological Progress - By 2024, energy consumption per unit of GDP is expected to decrease by 11.6%, making China one of the fastest countries in the world to reduce energy intensity [24] - Renewable energy generation capacity has surpassed 2 billion kilowatts, more than doubling from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [24] Governance and Reform - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has seen the implementation of over 300 reform measures aimed at enhancing the socialist market economy and improving governance capabilities [22][29] - Nearly half of the main indicators of the "14th Five-Year Plan" have been achieved ahead of schedule, with 102 major engineering projects meeting planning requirements [31]