Core Viewpoint - The cost of money is increasingly determined by the central bank's balance sheet rather than just interest rates, indicating a shift in market dynamics and investor sentiment [2][3][6] Group 1: Central Bank's Balance Sheet - As of August 2025, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is approximately $6.6 trillion, representing about 22% of the nominal GDP of the United States [2] - The Federal Reserve's "deferred assets," or future losses, have reached $232 billion as of June 2025, indicating that it is currently in a position of paying interest rather than generating profits for the Treasury [2] Group 2: Implications for Investors - The pricing logic of Treasury yields is changing; the term premium is increasingly dependent on whether the Federal Reserve can reduce its balance sheet, leading to higher required compensation if balance sheet reduction is hindered [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's losses may not directly undermine the dollar's international status, but they could alter global investors' perceptions of the U.S. fiscal and monetary partnership, affecting the demand for U.S. Treasuries [4] - High interest expenses for the Federal Reserve imply greater pressure on government deficits, which could lead to increased tax expectations or higher Treasury supply, ultimately raising interest rates and impacting stock valuations [4][5] Group 3: Future Considerations - The demand for capital-intensive sectors like AI and energy transition will likely increase, putting more pressure on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and making the cost of capital more pronounced [5][6] - Investors need to focus on the central bank's balance sheet rather than solely on interest rate projections, as the real cost of capital is influenced by the underlying financial dynamics [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet shows a significant reduction in asset size since June 2022, with current figures indicating a total of $6.6436 trillion as of August 14, 2025, down $2.2714 trillion from $8.915 trillion in June 2022, primarily due to decreases in Treasury and MBS assets [7]. Group 1: Balance Sheet Overview - The asset side of the balance sheet increased by $2.772 billion this week, with a total balance of $6.6436 trillion, recovering from the previous week [2]. - Treasury assets amount to $4.2048 trillion, while MBS stands at $2.1207 trillion [2]. - On the liability side, reverse repos decreased by $43.674 billion, with a reverse repo account size of $402.201 billion [2]. Group 2: Liquidity and Reserves - Fiscal deposits increased by $51.154 billion, bringing the fiscal deposit account balance to $515.469 billion [3]. - The total liquidity recovery this week is approximately $74.8 billion, indicating a net liquidity withdrawal of about $47.08 billion [4][5]. - The reserve balance reached $3.3328 trillion, showing an increase from the previous week [6]. Group 3: Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.9% in July, exceeding market expectations, driven by rising costs in goods and services, which may impact consumer prices [7]. - Concerns about service sector inflation are growing among Federal Reserve officials, with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee closely monitoring inflation's spread beyond tariff-affected goods [7]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet advocates for a more aggressive rate cut next month, suggesting a starting point of a 25 basis point reduction [8]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly expressed increasing support for rate cuts due to a softening labor market, with market expectations shifting away from significant rate cuts following the recent data release [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased significantly, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy as employment data shows weakness and inflation trends downward [2][7][8]. Group 1: Balance Sheet Overview - The total size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is $6.6408 trillion, down $17.35 billion from the previous week [2]. - The asset side includes $4.2045 trillion in Treasury securities and $2.1207 trillion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [2]. - The reserve balance reached $3.3304 trillion, showing an increase from the previous week [6]. Group 2: Liquidity Release - A total liquidity release of approximately $332.02 billion occurred this week, driven by a decrease in reverse repos and an increase in fiscal deposits [4][5]. Group 3: Employment Data and Economic Outlook - The U.S. added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [7]. - Job data for the previous two months was revised downwards, indicating a weakening hiring momentum [7]. - Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed, suggested that the Fed may need to consider rate cuts in the coming months due to the cooling job market [7][8]. Group 4: Inflation Trends - Excluding tariff impacts, inflation in the U.S. is showing a gradual decline, supported by economic slowdown and tightening monetary policy [8]. - The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in September is low at 6.4%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is high at 93.6% [8].

美联储主席潜在候选人：美联储归咎外部因素致通胀担忧实为自损信誉 金十数据5月10日讯，被认为是明年美联储主席潜在候选人的凯文·沃什表示，美联储对"关税加征可能 阻碍通胀管控"的担忧属于自损信誉。沃什称："当美联储断言通胀会因价格水平的外部变化而受到影 响，那么他们在某种程度上就是在承认一些有损自身利益的事情。他们是在承认自身信誉已经受 损。"沃什另指出，庞大且经常不断扩大的美联储资产负债表可能会与设定短期借贷利率的主要政策杠 杆相互矛盾，但"如果印钞机能够安静下来，我们就可以降低政策利率"。 ...