通胀缓和与就业隐忧 当美联储最新一期《褐皮书》在 9 月 4 日凌晨发布时，金融市场立刻捕捉到了政策转向的强烈信号。报 告中 "温和通胀" 与 "就业持平" 的表述，叠加美联储理事沃勒 "未来 3-6 个月多次降息" 的明确表态，瞬 间将市场对 9 月降息的预期推升至 96.6% 的历史高位。这种政策信号的释放与市场反应的共振，不仅 标志着美联储货币政策周期的关键转折，更揭示了在通胀尚未完全受控情况下，央行如何平衡增长风险 与物价稳定的复杂考量。本文将从政策逻辑、市场博弈和未来风险三个维度，解析这轮降息预期背后的 深层机制。 展望未来，9 月 16-17 日的议息会议将成为政策转向的关键节点。若如预期降息 25 个基点，市场焦点 将立即转向后续行动信号。参考沃勒 "未来 3-6 个月多次降息" 的表述，今年四季度可能再降 25-50 个基 点。但这种宽松节奏也面临制约因素：一是关税消退后通胀反弹的可能性，二是过度宽松可能导致金融 市场过热，三是财政政策配合的不确定性。美联储需要在这些复杂因素中寻找微妙的平衡点。 美联储此次释放宽松信号，建立在对当前经济形势的双重判断之上。《褐皮书》中最引人注目的变化是 通胀压 ...

Group 1 - The April CPI data in the US showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, which was lower than the market expectation of 0.3%, indicating a slowdown in inflation pressure [1][3] - The year-on-year CPI increase for April was 2.3%, also below the expected and previous value of 2.4%, marking the smallest increase since February 2021 [1][3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2% month-on-month and matched the market expectation of 2.8% year-on-year [1][3] Group 2 - The market response to the inflation data was cautious, with investors remaining wary of the economic outlook despite the favorable CPI figures [3] - The impact of tariffs on US inflation is becoming evident, suggesting that the current CPI increase may represent the low point for the year [3] - A survey by JPMorgan indicated an increase in short positions on US Treasury bonds, reaching the highest level since March 24, while long positions decreased [3]