当地时间9月17日，如舆论预测，美联储宣布下调联邦基准利率25个基点至4.00%～4.25%的区间。这不仅是2024年底以来的首 次降息，也是在就业市场走弱、政治压力高企、全球市场高度关注下的一次"聚光灯会议"。从声明到点阵图，再到主席鲍威尔 的记者会，释放出的信号既有政策方向，也试图表达美联储捍卫其独立性的立场。 △CNN报道，美联储9个月来首次宣布降息 降息背景：就业市场疲软与政治风暴 时间仿佛有意安排，去年9月18日，美联储以一次性50个基点的幅度开启了最受瞩目的降息周期；而一年后的9月17日，美联储 再次选择九月"动手"，但这一次，只是象征性下调25个基点。前后仅隔一年，同样降息，力度与氛围却大相径庭，这种反差可 说是观察美联储政策与美国经济政治环境变化的绝佳窗口。 去年秋天，美国经济明显出现降温苗头，政策环境也相对单纯，美联储果断降息50个基点，幅度大于市场预期，释放出了"避免 硬着陆"的决心。相比之下，本次降息更像是风险管理型的小步调整。 失业率上升、招聘放缓，让就业市场成为美联储最担心的下行风险。通胀虽有所缓和，却依旧徘徊在目标之上。更复杂的是政 治氛围。特朗普政府反复要求加快降息，甚至对理事人 ...

距离美联储本周召开关键政策会议仅剩数日，美国总统特朗普公开预测将大幅降息。 中间派官员则倾向于试探，先通过25个基点的降息观察经济反应，再决定后续行动。 市场分析机构指出，如果这种分歧持续扩大，本次会议可能出现三张反对票，如果鹰派与鸽派的对立进一步加剧，反对票数量 甚至可能达到四张，反对票数量的增加，不仅会削弱市场对美联储政策连贯性的信心，还可能引发美元汇率、美股市场的短期 波动。 对美联储政策制定者而言，他们既要在"防衰退"与"控通胀"之间找到精准平衡，还需应对白宫不断扩大的影响力。 彭博社近期对52位经济学家的调查多数人认为将降息25个基点，仅有7位受访者认为可能出现50个基点的更大幅度宽松。多数 受访经济学家表示，美联储当前更倾向于"预防性宽松"，而非开启全面降息周期。 不过即便本次会议如期降息，也不意味着美联储将顺利步入降息通道。9月17日这样的初始政策调整，往往是加息或降息周期 的开端，但当前经济环境的特殊性决定了这次不会出现明显的周期趋势。 鹰派官员认为，当前通胀压力尚未缓解，过早降息可能导致物价失控，因此反对任何形式的宽松举措。 鸽派官员则担忧经济下行风险已超过通胀风险，主张通过50个基点的降息 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The release of the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book on September 4 indicated a strong signal of policy shift, with a 96.6% probability of a rate cut in September, marking a critical turning point in the monetary policy cycle [1][2][4] - The Beige Book highlighted a significant easing of inflation pressures, with mentions of inflation at a four-year low and 10 out of 12 districts reporting "moderate or slight" price increases, suggesting that inflation is now within a controllable range [2][3] - The labor market shows subtle changes, with employment levels remaining stable but potential downward risks emerging, such as a drop in job vacancies to 7.181 million, the lowest in 10 months, indicating a cooling labor market [3][4] Group 2: Market Reactions - Financial markets quickly reacted to the Fed's signals, with a divergence in stock performance; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.05%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 1.02%, reflecting different interpretations of the rate cut's impact [4][5] - The bond market has already priced in significant easing expectations, with a 96.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September and a 51.6% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut in October [4][5] - The currency market showed a mild but clear trend, with the USD/CNY exchange rate rising by 0.0196% to 7.1429, indicating that the dollar has not depreciated significantly despite the Fed's shift to easing [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Fed's emphasis on flexibility and data dependency in its policy approach suggests a shift from predetermined paths to a more responsive strategy based on economic conditions [7][9] - The upcoming FOMC meeting on September 16-17 is expected to be a critical juncture, with potential for a 25 basis point cut, but the pace of future cuts may be constrained by factors such as the possibility of inflation rebounding post-tariff reductions [8][9] - The initiation of this rate cut cycle may signify a broader adjustment in the Fed's monetary policy framework, focusing on preemptive actions in response to emerging risks rather than waiting for clear recession signals [8][9]