格隆汇12月12日｜骏利亨德森投资环球短存续期及流动性主管兼投资组合经理Daniel Siluk表示，美联 储今年第三度降息，将目标区间下调至3.5%-3.75%，但讯息十分明确：预防性宽松的时代已经结束。在 12月的声明中，美联储强调未来的政策动向将取决于数据，并将明确逐次会议作出利率决定。主席鲍威 尔在记者会上再次强调这一立场，指出委员会认为今日的降息是审慎的调整，而非新一轮循环的开端。 经济展望摘要(SEP)同样展现"鹰派"基调，2026与2027年的增长预测略微上调，2026年的通胀预期略微 下降，失业率在中期展望中保持稳定。此举反映美联储有信心通胀将降温而不破坏经济成长，同时也表 明进一步降息的门槛极高。在鲍威尔强调耐心而委员会意见分歧的情况下，美联储将以观望姿态进入 2026年，并等待新任主席的到来。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2025 年 12 月 11 日 证券研究报告 美联储 12 月降息的关键信息及其影响 | [Tabl 分析师： | 郭磊 | 分析师： | 陈嘉荔 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 | | | SFC CE.no: BNY419 | | | | | 021-38003572 | | 021-38003674 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，陈嘉荔并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 美联储 12 月 9-10 日举行议息会议1，FOMC 官员投票下调联邦基金利率 25bp 至 3.5%-3.75%，这是自 2025 年 9 月重启降息后的第三次降息。堪萨斯城联储主席施密德（Schmid）、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比（Goolsbee） 倾向于 ...

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped to a three-year low, contrasting sharply with earlier weak ADP employment reports and record corporate layoffs, leading to a divergence in market perceptions regarding a soft landing for the U.S. economy [2] - The interest rate futures market is increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will ignore data noise and implement rate cuts, indicating a significant shift in macroeconomic logic where investors believe the Fed's policy response has transitioned from being data-dependent to a more preemptive easing approach to mitigate potential economic slowdown risks [2] Group 2 - On Thursday, the Hong Kong Stock Connect saw a net inflow of HKD 1.5 billion, with the largest net inflow into the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800.HK) amounting to HKD 2.61 billion, followed by WuXi Biologics (02269.HK) [2] - Conversely, Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) experienced the largest net outflow, totaling HKD 1.35 billion, followed by Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981.HK) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since the end of 2024, amid a weakening job market and political pressures [1][4]. Summary by Sections Rate Cut Context - The rate cut comes against a backdrop of a softening job market and significant political turmoil, contrasting sharply with the previous year's more aggressive 50 basis point cut [4]. - The current economic environment is more complex, with rising unemployment and a slowdown in hiring, making the job market a primary concern for the Fed [4][8]. Economic Projections and Dot Plot - The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and dot plot indicate that two more 25 basis point cuts are expected this year, potentially lowering rates to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% by the end of 2025 [6]. - Long-term interest rate expectations have been adjusted downward, with projections for 2026 and 2027 indicating rates around 3.50% to 3.75% and 3.25% to 3.50%, respectively [6][7]. Internal Disagreements - There is a notable division among Fed members, with some advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points, while the majority favored a more cautious approach [7][9]. - Powell emphasized that the decision for a 25 basis point cut was a consensus choice reflecting a gradual and controlled approach to monetary policy [7][9]. Powell's Press Conference Highlights - Powell stated that the 50 basis point cut did not receive broad support, and the 25 basis point reduction was deemed appropriate for risk management [8][9]. - The focus has shifted towards balancing employment and inflation, indicating a potential acceleration in rate cuts if job data continues to deteriorate [8][12]. - Powell defended the Fed's independence in the face of political pressure, asserting that decisions are based on data rather than political influence [8][12]. Overall Implications - The rate cut signals a cautious approach to monetary policy, balancing the need for economic support with the imperative to maintain the Fed's independence [12][14]. - The Fed's actions reflect a delicate balancing act between responding to economic pressures and resisting political interference, highlighting the ongoing challenges in maintaining policy credibility [14].

Group 1 - Trump has publicly stated that he believes a significant interest rate cut is imminent, marking the third time he has mentioned the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts recently [2] - Market expectations indicate an over 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut announcement by the Federal Reserve on September 17, with almost no chance of maintaining current rates [2] - A Bloomberg survey of 52 economists shows a majority favoring a 25 basis point cut, while only 7 believe a larger 50 basis point cut is possible, indicating a preference for "preventive easing" rather than a full rate cut cycle [2] Group 2 - The initial policy adjustment on September 17 may not lead to a clear trend in rate cuts or hikes due to the unique economic environment [2] - Hawkish officials argue that inflation pressures have not eased, warning against premature rate cuts that could lead to uncontrolled prices [2] - Dovish officials express concern that the risks of economic downturn outweigh inflation risks, advocating for a 50 basis point cut to preemptively address recession risks [2] Group 3 - If the divide between hawkish and dovish officials continues to widen, there may be three dissenting votes at the upcoming meeting, potentially increasing to four if tensions escalate [3] - An increase in dissenting votes could undermine market confidence in the Federal Reserve's policy coherence and may lead to short-term volatility in the dollar and U.S. stock markets [3] - Federal Reserve policymakers face the challenge of balancing "recession prevention" with "inflation control" while also addressing the growing influence of the White House [3]

Group 1: Core Insights - The release of the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book on September 4 indicated a strong signal of policy shift, with a 96.6% probability of a rate cut in September, marking a critical turning point in the monetary policy cycle [1][2][4] - The Beige Book highlighted a significant easing of inflation pressures, with mentions of inflation at a four-year low and 10 out of 12 districts reporting "moderate or slight" price increases, suggesting that inflation is now within a controllable range [2][3] - The labor market shows subtle changes, with employment levels remaining stable but potential downward risks emerging, such as a drop in job vacancies to 7.181 million, the lowest in 10 months, indicating a cooling labor market [3][4] Group 2: Market Reactions - Financial markets quickly reacted to the Fed's signals, with a divergence in stock performance; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.05%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 1.02%, reflecting different interpretations of the rate cut's impact [4][5] - The bond market has already priced in significant easing expectations, with a 96.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September and a 51.6% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut in October [4][5] - The currency market showed a mild but clear trend, with the USD/CNY exchange rate rising by 0.0196% to 7.1429, indicating that the dollar has not depreciated significantly despite the Fed's shift to easing [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Fed's emphasis on flexibility and data dependency in its policy approach suggests a shift from predetermined paths to a more responsive strategy based on economic conditions [7][9] - The upcoming FOMC meeting on September 16-17 is expected to be a critical juncture, with potential for a 25 basis point cut, but the pace of future cuts may be constrained by factors such as the possibility of inflation rebounding post-tariff reductions [8][9] - The initiation of this rate cut cycle may signify a broader adjustment in the Fed's monetary policy framework, focusing on preemptive actions in response to emerging risks rather than waiting for clear recession signals [8][9]