2025年7月31日，特朗普宣布将对印度加征25%的关税，并在短短几天后，于8月6日再次加码，决定对印度加征额外的25%关税，使得总额达到50%。然而， 在8月6日的宣布中，特朗普给予了21天的暂缓期，期间印美两国将进行谈判。截止目前，尽管双方已经进行了多轮磋商，但仍未能达成任何协议。这意味 着，如果双方在接下来的两天内依然未能达成共识，印度将面临最高50%的关税，这无疑会对印度的经济产生深远影响。 此外，印度政府已经开始采取一系列国内措施，以应对目前的经济压力。近日，印度总理莫迪宣布，将下调日常消费品的商品与服务税（GST），此举将为 民众减轻数百亿美元的税负，并希望能够刺激国内需求。莫迪还曾表示，鼓励印度民众支持国产商品的消费，以提振经济。因此，印度目前在关税谈判中的 态度显得非常强硬，似乎并不急于达成协议。相比于此前与美国达成协议的英国、日本和欧盟，印度不仅没有迅速达成协议，反而开始采取反制措施，面对 50%的关税威胁，仍表现出强大的应对能力。 在全球金融市场上，尽管特朗普和印度的关税冲突仍在继续，另一场风暴也正在悄然酝酿。上周五，美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话引发了市场的强烈反应。股市 出现了大幅上涨，道琼斯 ...

Group 1: Economic Support Measures - The Guangdong Provincial Government has issued a work plan to promote sustained economic improvement and strengthen the domestic circulation of the economy, focusing on targeted support for foreign trade enterprises and addressing their operational challenges [1][3] - The plan includes measures to stabilize employment, particularly for key groups, by enhancing policy support, training, and risk assessment to ensure job stability and expand employment opportunities [3][4] Group 2: Consumer and Investment Stimulus - The work plan aims to boost consumption through special actions, encouraging large-scale consumption upgrades and supporting first-time homebuyers and families with multiple children through subsidies and policy adjustments [4][5] - It emphasizes effective investment expansion by leveraging national policies and funds, accelerating project implementation, and stimulating private investment through various financial mechanisms [5][6] Group 3: Innovation and Resource Allocation - The plan highlights the importance of innovation, proposing initiatives to enhance technological and industrial innovation, including support for high-growth sectors and the establishment of new economic growth points [6][7] - It also focuses on improving the efficient allocation of resources, promoting the integration into the national market, and enhancing the efficiency of talent, capital, and technology allocation [7][8] Group 4: Safety and Risk Management - The work plan stresses the need for economic safety, emphasizing risk assessment and prevention in sectors like real estate and finance, while ensuring the security of food, energy, and supply chains [7][8] - It outlines a timeline for policy implementation, aiming for significant results by the third quarter of 2025, with a comprehensive policy framework to support high-quality economic development [8]

Core Viewpoint - The overall employment situation in China remains stable, with a slight decrease in the urban survey unemployment rate to 5.0% in May, reflecting the resilience of the job market amid economic challenges [1][2][4]. Employment Situation - The average urban survey unemployment rate from January to May was 5.2%, with May's rate showing a 0.1 percentage point decrease from the previous month [1]. - The unemployment rate for local and migrant workers was both recorded at 5.0%, while the rate for migrant agricultural workers was slightly lower at 4.9% [1]. - The unemployment rate in 31 major cities was also 5.0%, indicating a consistent trend across urban areas [1]. Economic Factors Supporting Employment - Economic growth and favorable industrial development have contributed to the stability of employment, supported by effective employment policies [2][4]. - In May, the industrial added value and service production index grew by 5.8% and 6.2%, respectively, maintaining overall stability compared to April [4]. - The retail and accommodation sectors showed significant growth, with production indices increasing by 8.4% and 6.2%, respectively, compared to the previous month [4]. Policy Measures - The government has implemented robust employment stabilization policies, focusing on both enterprise support for job creation and individual employment subsidies [5]. - These policies aim to balance labor supply and demand by incentivizing companies to hire and enhancing individual employability [5]. - Future efforts will focus on vocational training and improving labor market matching to promote full employment and enhance job quality [5]. Youth Employment - The youth unemployment rate has shown a continuous decline for three months, indicating a positive trend in youth employment [6]. - Despite this progress, challenges remain regarding the overall pressure on youth employment and structural issues that need ongoing policy attention [6][7]. - Initiatives targeting college graduates have been intensified, with various measures introduced to support their employment [7]. Importance of Stable Employment - Stable employment for youth is crucial for personal development, family financial security, and overall economic sustainability [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that industries less affected by trade are maintaining stable employment conditions [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Canada Governor Macklem highlighted the resilience of employment in sectors with minimal trade impact [1]

Economic Overview - In April 2025, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year and 0.22% month-on-month, while the service production index rose by 6.0% year-on-year [1][3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.24% [1][3] Consumption Insights - The sales of products related to the "old-for-new" policy saw significant growth, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment increasing by 38.8%, 33.5%, 26.9%, and 19.9% year-on-year, respectively [7] - Basic living and upgraded goods also experienced rapid growth, with retail sales of grain and oil, sports and entertainment products, and gold and silver jewelry increasing by 14%, 23.3%, and 25.3% year-on-year [7] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by 4% from January to April 2025, with equipment investment rising by 18.2%, contributing 64.5% to total investment growth [9] - Manufacturing investment increased by 8.8% year-on-year, driven by the upgrade of traditional industries and the development of emerging industries [9] - High-tech service industry investment rose by 11.3%, with professional technical services and information services growing by 17.6% and 40.6%, respectively [9] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with notable declines in unemployment rates among migrant workers and youth [14] - Despite overall employment stability, structural issues remain, particularly for the youth demographic and a mismatch in labor supply and demand [14] Real Estate Market - The real estate market showed basic stability in April, with some first- and second-tier cities experiencing increased transaction activity [15][17] - New residential sales prices in first- and second-tier cities remained stable month-on-month, while year-on-year declines in prices continued to narrow [17] - The demand for green, smart, and safe housing is expanding, indicating a positive outlook for the renovation of old communities and improvements in real estate construction quality [17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of promoting high-quality and sufficient employment as a new mission for employment work in the new era [1] - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the need to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and to continuously improve the policy toolbox for stabilizing employment and the economy [1] - Various regions and departments are actively implementing employment stabilization measures, focusing on key groups and sectors to enhance job opportunities [1][2] Group 2 - In the first quarter, 3.08 million new urban jobs were created, an increase of 50,000 year-on-year, with an average urban survey unemployment rate of 5.3%, lower than the expected control target [2] - The manufacturing sector saw an increase in employment, and certain service industries, such as accommodation and catering, experienced growth in job numbers [2] - Major engineering projects are being promoted to boost employment, with 2.16 million water conservancy projects implemented in the first quarter, creating 660,000 jobs [3] Group 3 - The service industry is identified as a significant employment reservoir, with training initiatives leading to job creation, such as 35,000 jobs facilitated by a home service company [4] - Online service sectors, including logistics and elderly care, have seen recruitment demand increase by 43%, 35%, and 17% respectively [4] - New industries and demands are generating new job opportunities, with the emergence of new professions in sectors like energy storage and electric vehicle maintenance [5][6] Group 4 - Local governments are implementing various employment stabilization plans, such as monitoring and supporting employment for poverty alleviation labor [8] - Companies are benefiting from employment policy incentives, with one company in Guangdong hiring 1,600 new employees and receiving over 1.24 million yuan in policy benefits [9] - Skills training programs are being expanded to meet job market demands, with thousands of individuals trained in key industries [10][11] Group 5 - Targeted measures are being taken to support key groups, such as recent graduates, with numerous recruitment events and job opportunities provided [12] - The national budget for social security and employment is set at nearly 4.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a 5.9% increase, to support employment initiatives [12] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security is confident in maintaining overall employment stability through a well-prepared policy toolbox [12]

Group 1: Logistics Industry - In the first quarter, the total social logistics volume in China reached 91 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [3] - The logistics demand structure is continuously optimizing, driven by large-scale equipment updates and policies promoting the replacement of consumer goods [3] - In the industrial logistics sector, logistics demand for general equipment and specialized equipment manufacturing grew by 9.4% and 4.1% year-on-year, respectively [3] Group 2: Service Trade - In the first quarter, China's service trade experienced rapid growth, with total service import and export amounting to 19,741.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [4][6] - The service trade deficit was 3,038.8 billion yuan, which is a reduction of 244.6 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [6] Group 3: Marine Economy - The marine GDP in China for the first quarter was 2.5 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than the overall GDP growth rate [8] - Key indicators in shipbuilding, including new ship orders, completed ships, and hand-held ship orders, remained stable within a reasonable range, maintaining a leading position in the international market [8] Group 4: Cultural New Business Formats - The cultural new business formats sector achieved revenue of 1,484.6 billion yuan in the first quarter, with a year-on-year growth of 12.5% [10] - This sector contributed 83.5% to the revenue growth of all large-scale cultural enterprises, with significant growth in areas such as smart drones for entertainment, digital publishing, and internet advertising services, which grew by 36.8%, 19.8%, and 16.4% respectively [10] Group 5: Employment Situation - In the first quarter, 3.08 million new urban jobs were created, an increase of 50,000 compared to the previous year [11] - The urban survey unemployment rate in March was 5.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stability in the employment situation [11]

Core Viewpoint - The employment situation in China remains generally stable in the first quarter, with urban employment increasing by 3.08 million, a year-on-year increase of 50,000, indicating a faster pace than expected [1] Employment Situation - In the first quarter, 3.08 million new urban jobs were created, which is a year-on-year increase of 50,000 [1] - The employment pressure is rising due to external shocks, particularly from the U.S. imposing high tariffs, affecting some foreign trade enterprises and their operations [1] Government Response - The government plans to implement measures to stabilize the employment situation, including increasing job opportunities, enhancing policies, focusing on key sectors, improving skills, and optimizing services [1]