来源：滚动播报 债券遭抛售，因美联储的独立性再次受到特朗普政府的威胁，后者正在就美联储翻修工程的成本超支问 题对主席鲍威尔展开调查。该调查加剧了政治-货币风险。Lead-Lag Report的Michael Gayed写道："令人 担忧的与其说是任何单一案件的结果，不如说是它可能开创的先例。"他指出，针对在任美联储主席的 直接法律行动"在现代没有先例"。Gayed警告称，通胀风险溢价正在上升，"以及对与稳定政策预期相关 的长期金融资产的信心减弱"。10年期国债收益率报4.193%，2年期国债收益率报3.541%。 ...

Group 1 - Gold has reached around $4,100 per ounce, while silver is approaching $50, indicating potential inflation concerns, but the CPI remains stable [3][4][14] - The recent surge in gold and silver prices reflects systemic concerns rather than traditional inflation fears, as the correlation between CPI and gold prices has diverged [16][40] - Central banks are significantly increasing gold purchases, with over 1,000 tons bought annually from 2022 to 2024, marking a historical high [30][93] Group 2 - Silver's industrial demand has surged, accounting for approximately 55% of global silver demand in 2023, driven by sectors like solar energy and electric vehicles [34][36] - The gold-silver ratio has decreased, indicating that silver is outperforming gold, with historical volatility reaching new highs since 2020 [21][26] - The current market dynamics suggest that gold serves as a "face" of central banks, while silver acts as a "lubricant" for the new energy era [38][39] Group 3 - The U.S. fiscal deficit is a growing concern, with interest payments nearing the federal tax revenue ceiling, leading to fears about the sustainability of the current monetary and debt systems [62][63] - The market is reassessing the "inflation risk premium," indicating that investors are more concerned about systemic risks than immediate inflation [66][67] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is tightening, with expectations of interest rate adjustments impacting gold prices [70][73] Group 4 - Emerging markets are experiencing capital inflows due to favorable conditions, including a weaker dollar and rising commodity prices, which improve export revenues [109][139] - The correlation between gold prices and emerging market debt suggests that as gold is viewed as a hedge against dollar risks, funds are flowing into high-yield emerging market bonds [118][130] - However, there are risks associated with this trend, as sudden shifts in the dollar or profit-taking in precious metals could lead to capital outflows from emerging markets [144][152] Group 5 - Investment strategies should focus on maintaining a balanced asset allocation, with gold and silver viewed as systemic insurance, while also considering dollar risk hedging and emerging market exposure [166][176][182] - Monitoring key economic indicators, such as U.S. core PCE and Chinese social financing, can provide insights into potential market adjustments and the timing of asset reallocation [191][198] - The evolving narrative around gold suggests it is now seen as a measure of national credit rather than merely an inflation indicator, reflecting broader concerns about the stability of fiat currencies and government debt [196][198]

Core Viewpoint - The actions of Trump to attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Cook may mark a turning point, leading to a gradual "Trumpification" of the Federal Reserve by 2026 [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve Independence - If Cook is forced to leave, the independence of the Federal Reserve may be compromised, potentially resulting in a steeper yield curve, increased inflation compensation, and higher inflation risk premiums [1] Policy Implications - The current baseline scenario suggests that while there may not be drastic changes in policy and practice, there could be significant breaks from past practices and fundamentally different response functions [1]