Core Viewpoint - The focus of investors is shifting from the interest rate decision to the guidance on the future tightening path from the Bank of Japan, particularly comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda after the meeting [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates the Bank of Japan will raise the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in thirty years [1]. - Nomura's analysis suggests that the rate hike decision alone may not catalyze further increases in yields, as the market has already priced in these expectations [1][2]. - There is skepticism regarding whether Ueda will indicate a significantly higher neutral rate than the current market pricing of 1.5% [2]. Group 2: Future Rate Guidance - Analysts believe that if the Bank of Japan fails to convey a faster tightening pace than the market expects, the meeting could be perceived as a "non-event" [1]. - The consensus indicates that the policy rate may reach 1.0% by mid-2026, and any signals of continued rate hikes in 2026 would not surprise the market [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Currency Implications - A simple rate hike may not be sufficient to support a stronger yen; Ueda would need to suggest an accelerated pace of rate increases to prevent yen depreciation [3]. - The current average rate hike pace since the end of negative interest rates is approximately every seven months, with market expectations for the next increase to occur by the third quarter of 2026 [3]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy Considerations - While the focus is on the central bank meeting, fiscal policy developments are also important, with key tax reform outlines and preliminary budget proposals expected around December 19 and 26 [4]. - The potential removal of income limits proposed by the Democratic Party for the People could lead to significant tax revenue losses, impacting yields and the yen [5]. - If the initial budget for fiscal year 2026 can be kept below 122.4 trillion yen, it may be viewed positively by the bond market; exceeding 125 trillion yen would have negative implications [5].

日本央行本周五料将基准利率上调至三十年来最高水平，这标志着该行对实现稳定通胀目标的信心增 强。市场关注的焦点已从"是否加息"转向"未来加息路径如何演绎"。 日本央行行长植田和男及其委员会成员可能会在为期两天的会议结束时，将隔夜拆借利率上调25个基点 至0.75%。自植田和男本月早些时候发出加息临近的罕见明确信号以来，由于薪资增长势头保持良好， 且美国关税造成的破坏小于预期，市场对加息的预期持续升温。这是自植田和男任期开始以来，接受彭 博调查的日本央行观察人士首次全员预测会加息。 由于加息已被市场充分消化——隔夜指数掉期显示交易员认为加息的可能性约为95%——投资者的焦点 已转移至未来的政策路径。若日元汇率跌向1美元兑160日元的关键门槛，可能会迫使金融当局再次考虑 干预汇市，而任何过度的鹰派信号又可能重新点燃债券收益率的急剧上涨，这可能会令正在编制下一财 年预算的首相高市早苗政府感到不安。 此次加息将使日本的利率达到自1995年以来的最高水平，这将标志着日本经济彻底走出泡沫破裂后长达 数十年的停滞期。随着经济进入截然不同的阶段，植田和男实际上正踏入未知领域，他可能希望在规划 后续路径时保持最大的灵活性。 市场 ...

这是日本央行自今年1月以来的首次加息。由于在此前两次会议上已有两名委员公开呼吁加息，市场预 计本次决议有望以全票通过。若成行，这将是行长植田和男任内首次在加息问题上获得董事会一致支 持。 本月早些时候，植田和男罕见地释放出明确的加息信号，随后一系列经济数据进一步巩固了市场预期。 数据显示，日本工资增长动能依然稳固，同时美国关税对日本经济的冲击小于此前担忧。这也是植田上 任以来，媒体调查中所有日本央行观察人士首次一致预测将加息。 在加息几乎被视为"板上钉钉"的背景下，市场关注焦点转向日本央行将如何描绘未来的利率路径。知情 人士此前透露，即便利率上调至0.75%，日本央行内部仍认为政策利率未达到所谓的"中性利率"，部分 官员甚至认为1%的水平也仍偏低。中性利率通常被定义为既不刺激也不抑制经济增长的利率水平。 通常而言，加息有助于提振日元汇率，但由于本次行动已被市场充分计价，若央行在前瞻指引中释放偏 鸽派信号，反而可能令日元走弱。一旦汇率再度逼近每美元160日元这一关键关口，金融当局可能被迫 重新考虑入市干预。 智通财经APP获悉，日本央行周五料将把基准利率上调至三十年来最高水平，显示出决策层对实现稳定 通胀目标的 ...

[TABLE_TITLE] 日银加息在即，市场关注中性利率 证券研究报告 [Table_Info1] 主题报告 主题研究 2025 年 12 月 14 日 [分析师 Table_Author1] 主题研究团队 祁宗超 zongchao.qi@nomuraoi-sec.com 登记编号：S1720522050003 侯苏寒 suhan.hou@nomuraoi-sec.com 登记编号：S1720520020001 1 https://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/wps_rev/wps_2024/data/wp24e12.pdf [Nomura | Table_Info4 主题报告 ] 2025.12.14 图表 1：日本央行不同模型对日本自然利率的估算 [TABLE_SUMMARY] 日本央行 12 月加息几成定局。根据日经新闻消息，日本央行将于 18 日至 19 日的货币政策会议上开始就将政策利率从目前的 0.5%上调进行最终磋 商。主要方案是将利率上调 0.25 个百分点至 0.75%，这将是自 1995 年以 来 30 年来的最高利率水平。据日经新闻报道，包括央行行长和副行长在内 ...

来源：掌控雷电大爷 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔已公开承认，委员会在如何平衡"稳定物价"与"最大化就业"这两大法定使命 上，存在着"强烈分歧"。这种根本性的战略犹豫，正外化为一场罕见的公开政策辩论：是否应在下周的 会议上再度扣动降息的扳机？而此后又将何去何从？ 分歧已达历史极值 一个世纪的理念之争 中性利率，在学术文献中常被称为"r-star"（源于模型中的数学符号）或"自然利率"。它作为一个无法直 接观测、只能通过经济表现反向推断的理论概念，已困扰了经济学家一个多世纪。尽管经济学巨擘凯恩 斯等曾质疑其实际效用，但在现代中央银行家的工具箱里，它仍占据着神圣的一席之地。 当美联储在今年连续降息超过一个百分点后，其内部正悄然浮现一道深刻的裂痕。决策者们对于那个被 称为"中性利率"的关键指标究竟位于何处，产生了自2012年以来最严重的分歧。这场看不见硝烟的争 论，正直接牵引着本月货币政策的走向，让每一次降息决定都如履薄冰。 纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯是该理论的资深专家，他坚信这一理念居于"货币理论与实践的绝对核 心"。威廉姆斯曾警示历史教训：决策者若未能准确诊断中性利率和自然失业率的变动，可能引发深远 后果。他援引了上 ...

Economic Overview - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that Japan's economy experienced its first negative growth in six quarters during Q3 2025, but this is viewed as a temporary adjustment rather than a long-term trend [1][5] - The overall economic recovery remains intact, with a projected annualized GDP growth rate of 0.9% from April to September 2025, surpassing the potential growth rate of approximately 0.5% [5] Global Economic Context - The global economy is showing "moderate growth with localized weaknesses," influenced by trade policies, but the impact of tariffs on the global economy has not been as significant as expected [3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.8% to 3.0%, with a further increase to 3.1% expected in 2026, driven by trade agreements and robust private consumption in the U.S. [3] Japanese Economic Performance - Japan's export sector remains resilient, with IT-related exports benefiting from global AI demand, despite fluctuations in automobile exports due to preemptive export strategies [5] - Corporate profits are stable, with a slight upward revision in profit forecasts for listed companies in FY2025, and fixed investment is expected to grow by 10.3%, focusing on R&D and labor-saving software [5] Inflation and Price Trends - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is currently rising at approximately 3%, primarily driven by food prices and wage increases [6] - A temporary decline in core CPI below 2% is anticipated in the first half of FY2026, but long-term inflation is expected to align with the Bank of Japan's target of 2% due to economic recovery and labor shortages [6] Monetary Policy Direction - The Bank of Japan plans to gradually increase interest rates in response to economic and price improvements, with the spring 2026 labor negotiations being a critical observation point for policy adjustments [7][9] - Current conditions support wage increases, with the minimum wage rising over 5% in FY2025, and corporate profits providing a foundation for further wage growth [8][9] Future Considerations - The Bank of Japan is collecting data on corporate wage increase intentions and will assess the benefits and drawbacks of interest rate hikes in the upcoming monetary policy meeting scheduled for December 18-19 [9] - The goal is to achieve a stable 2% inflation target while maintaining financial stability and promoting long-term economic growth in Japan [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, particularly focusing on how these cuts may affect the Chinese market, suggesting that while there may be short-term benefits, the overall impact may not be as significant as commonly perceived [2][28]. Group 1: Impact of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - The current probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is 92% according to CME futures [3]. - The common belief is that a rate cut leads to a weakening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields, which would attract foreign capital into China [2][28]. - However, historical data shows that this assumption may not hold true, as past rate cuts have sometimes coincided with rising yields and a stronger dollar [2][8][12]. Group 2: Types of Rate Cuts - Rate cuts can be categorized into two types: recessionary cuts and preventive cuts. Recessionary cuts occur when the economy is under significant pressure, leading to a decline in yields and the dollar [8][10]. - Preventive cuts happen when economic pressure is less severe, allowing for smaller cuts that can quickly stimulate demand, often resulting in rising yields and a stronger dollar post-cut [12][15]. Group 3: Current Economic Context - The current economic indicators suggest that while there is pressure on the US economy, the situation is not dire enough to necessitate large rate cuts [25][28]. - Key metrics such as the ISM manufacturing PMI and housing sales indicate ongoing weakness, but the actual interest rates are close to natural rates, suggesting that minor cuts could suffice to stimulate the economy [19][25]. Group 4: Short-term vs Long-term Effects - In the short term, the anticipated rate cuts may provide liquidity and improve market sentiment, potentially benefiting the Chinese market [29][33]. - However, this short-term benefit may quickly reverse as the underlying economic conditions improve, leading to a potential rise in yields and the dollar, counteracting the initial positive effects [29][33]. Group 5: Strategic Opportunities - To maximize the benefits of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, China could implement more aggressive monetary and fiscal policies to support credit expansion [34][38]. - Additionally, sectors related to the US real estate market and traditional manufacturing may see increased demand, presenting opportunities for Chinese exports and commodities [44].

Macroeconomy - Despite a slowdown in economic growth and low inflation in Q2, A-shares have experienced a rapid rise, likened to a "water buffalo" in the context of financial cycles [4] - The current economic indicators in China are still in need of improvement, but several factors support the stock market performance, suggesting a shift from traditional economic cycle perspectives to financial cycle perspectives may provide better insights [4] - Policies aimed at addressing debt issues are crucial during a financial cycle downturn, as they can enhance balance sheets and boost economic vitality, which is significant for capital markets [4] Strategy - Tariffs have contributed to a partial rebound in U.S. inflation, with seasonal adjustment methods underestimating inflation by nearly 20 basis points over the past two months; CPI readings may not yet reflect the true inflation rebound [6] - A turning point in CPI is anticipated within the next 1-2 months, with a potential confirmation date around August 12, and the CPI year-on-year upturn may last for about a year [6] - The low risk premium in U.S. equities is primarily due to rising real returns and investor enthusiasm for U.S. stocks amid a global "asset shortage"; adjustments in risk-free rates suggest there is still slight room for recovery in the risk premium [8] Macroeconomy - The central rate of interest in China has significant downward potential, but the rapid decline in the 10-year government bond yield over the past three years may not continue; short-term policy rate cuts may face limitations around 1% [10] - The 10-year government bond yield's term premium is unlikely to fall below 0.2%, indicating that other policy measures, such as fiscal expansion and central bank balance sheet expansion, may be more effective in stimulating growth [10] Macroeconomy - The U.S. dollar index has rebounded during a depreciation cycle, but this trend halted following the release of July's non-farm payroll data, leading to significant market fluctuations [12] - The U.S. economy appears to have bottomed out in June and showed signs of improvement in July, with a debt issuance wave beginning to absorb dollar liquidity [12] - Looking ahead, the impact of tariffs on inflation may become more apparent, and tightening dollar liquidity could negatively affect U.S. stock performance in August and September, with the 10-year Treasury yield potentially rising to around 4.8% [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing interest rate reduction cycle in China, which began in 2019 and is expected to continue until 2025, drawing parallels with historical cycles and emphasizing the need to analyze the interaction between monetary policy, interest rates, asset prices, and overall demand [2][3]. Group 1: Natural Interest Rate and Monetary Policy - The natural interest rate in China has declined to near zero, indicating that there is significant room for further policy rate reductions to address low inflation [3][4]. - The article highlights two critical blind spots in the natural interest rate framework: the "effectiveness blind spot," which overlooks the impact of risk premiums on the effectiveness of rate cuts, and the "cost blind spot," which considers the financial safety and interests of savers as constraints on rate reductions [4][11]. - The analysis suggests that even with persistent low inflation, the 10-year Chinese government bond yield may not decline to the levels indicated by the natural interest rate due to these blind spots [6][10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Bond Pricing - The article argues that the low yield spread in the bond market is primarily due to reduced volatility rather than strong expectations of rate cuts, indicating a "pricing blind spot" in the natural interest rate perspective [5][41]. - The 10-year government bond yield's downward trend over the past three years may not continue, as the costs associated with rate cuts become more apparent and the lower limit of the yield spread is supported [6][70]. - The article emphasizes that the current economic environment and the potential for future rate cuts should be closely monitored, particularly in the context of market expectations and the behavior of financial institutions [61][69]. Group 3: Financial System Constraints - The Chinese banking sector's significant reliance on interest income and the high proportion of bank assets to GDP create constraints on further rate reductions, as banks prioritize maintaining net interest margins [26][29]. - The article notes that the interests of savers will also play a crucial role in determining the extent to which deposit rates can be lowered without causing public discontent [29][30]. - The ongoing global high-interest rate environment poses additional challenges for China's monetary policy, as it complicates the management of capital flows and the stability of the renminbi [32][38]. Group 4: Policy Alternatives and Economic Growth - The article suggests that there are alternative policy measures available to stimulate growth, such as fiscal expansion and structural reforms, which may be more effective than simply lowering interest rates [71][73]. - Recent changes in fiscal policy, including the use of special government bonds for consumption subsidies and an increase in the fiscal deficit ratio, indicate a shift towards more proactive fiscal measures to support economic growth [71][72]. - The potential for further structural reforms to enhance economic vitality is highlighted, with an emphasis on improving incentive mechanisms across various sectors [73].

Group 1 - The current natural interest rate in China is approximately 1.84%, which is significantly above zero, indicating that excessive interest rate cuts could lead to credit contraction, counterproductive to economic growth [1] - China's potential GDP growth rate is estimated at 6.12%, and while the natural interest rate declines with growth potential, it remains at a high level, suggesting that China is far from a zero interest rate environment [1] - The concept of Effective Lower Bound (ELB) is particularly relevant for China, as traditional zero lower bound (ZLB) theories do not fully apply to emerging markets; capital outflows and balance sheet deterioration can lead to credit tightening if rates fall below a certain positive threshold [1] Group 2 - The experience of South Korea in the 1980s serves as a valuable reference; during economic transitions and export crises, Korea did not excessively lower interest rates but instead synchronized policy rates with economic growth while focusing on structural reforms and industrial upgrades [2] - The most effective strategy for economic stability and growth is not merely pushing interest rates to their limits but rather implementing structural reforms that enhance potential economic growth [2] - Policy discussions should shift from a narrow focus on interest rate levels to a broader perspective that includes structural reforms and the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies [2]