Market Overview - U.S. stock futures increased following a strong performance last week, with the Nasdaq Composite reaching all-time highs for both closing and intraday metrics [1] - The S&P 500 is close to achieving another record high, while the Dow also advanced last week [1] Economic Indicators - Key inflation data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), will be released this week, with CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Thursday [2] - Soft readings in these inflation metrics could enhance investor sentiment for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Expectations for a rate cut have increased due to unexpectedly weak job additions in July and downward revisions of job data for June and May [3] - The upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium for Economic Policies, scheduled for August 21-23, will be influenced by the CPI and PPI data released prior to the event [3] Additional Economic Data - Retail sales data, industrial production data, and the Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment index will also be monitored by the central bank, with releases scheduled for Friday [4] Company Earnings Reports - monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) reported Q2 adjusted earnings of $1.09 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.84, with revenues of $299.01 million, surpassing estimates by 2% [5] - Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV) announced Q2 adjusted earnings of $1.24 per share, a 65% increase year over year, with total revenues of $369.4 million, up 42% year over year [6] - Barrick Mining Corp. (B) reported Q2 adjusted earnings of $0.47 per share, a 47% increase year over year, with total revenues of $3.681 billion, up 16% year over year [7] - Legend Biotech Corp. (LEGN) reported a quarterly adjusted loss of $0.34 per share, wider than the consensus estimate, but revenues of $255.06 million exceeded expectations of $226.26 million [8] Upcoming Earnings Releases - After today's market close, Celanese Corp. (CE), Archer Aviation Inc. (ACHR), and Oklo Inc. (OKLO) are set to release their quarterly financial results [9]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have risen over 1.5%, surpassing $3,400 per ounce, driven by increased market risk aversion and weakening of the US dollar and Treasury yields, with analysts identifying four key factors that may determine whether gold can break through $3,500 and challenge historical highs set in the first half of the year [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The US dollar index has declined by 0.6%, falling below the 98 mark, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dropped to a one-week low, indicating a supportive environment for gold prices [3]. - Concerns over US debt growth and potential updates on tariffs are making gold a focal point, with analysts suggesting that the current price levels are well-supported [3][4]. - Discussions around potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are increasing, contributing to market tension and uncertainty [4][5]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - **Central Bank Activity**: Central banks have been significant buyers of gold, and any increase in their purchasing could drive prices up. Conversely, a decrease in demand could lead to a slight decline in prices [8]. - **Geopolitical Events**: Political instability often drives investors towards gold as a safe haven. Current geopolitical tensions have cooled, suggesting that any new crises could provide the necessary boost for gold prices to reach $3,500 [8]. - **Inflation Data**: Any sharp changes in inflation data could signal economic weakness, prompting investors to increase their gold holdings. Future macroeconomic reports influenced by tariffs may also drive demand for higher gold prices [8]. - **US Dollar Trends**: Historically, gold prices have shown a negative correlation with the US dollar. Factors affecting the dollar's performance include Fed rate cut prospects, US economic resilience, and trade war developments [9].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of gold in the second half of the year will be influenced by four key factors, with the potential to challenge the $3500 mark and the historical highs set in the first half of the year [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - International gold prices rose over 1.5%, surpassing $3400 per ounce, marking a five-week high due to increased market risk aversion and weakening of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [1]. - The dollar index fell by 0.6%, dropping below the 98 mark, while the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touched a one-week low, indicating a supportive environment for gold [2]. - Concerns over U.S. debt growth and further tariff updates are drawing attention to gold as a focal point, with prices appearing well-supported [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Global central bank enthusiasm is a significant driver, as central banks have been major buyers of gold, and their purchasing decisions can quickly impact the market [4]. - Geopolitical events often lead investors to shift from stocks and bonds to precious metals, with potential crises in July being a point of concern [4][5]. - Inflation data is crucial, as any sharp changes could signal economic weakness, prompting investors to increase their gold holdings [5]. - The historical negative correlation between gold and the dollar suggests that the outlook for gold prices will be influenced by the dollar's performance, which has seen a decline of over 10% in the first half of the year [5].