来源：滚动播报 Federated Hermes的RJ Gallo在一份报告中称，近来出现的多种因素共同将美国国债收益率限制在窄幅交 易区间内。这位固定收益部门副首席投资官表示，美联储已将其目标联邦基金利率下调至被视为中性的 宽幅区间内，并已暗示近期打算退居观望。Gallo称，与此同时，市场正在等待美国总统特朗普提名下 一任、可能持鸽派立场的美联储主席。他说，备受关注的地缘政治事件仍在不断演变，但市场认为这些 事件不太可能改变近期的宏观经济轨迹。 ...

另外，考虑到局势的多变，预计美联储近期决策所受影响有限。然而，若油价呈现下跌趋势并带动 汽油价格走低，将有助缓解当前通胀问题，并可能为宽松货币政策创造条件。在其他条件不变的情况 下，这对股市将是积极信号。 智通财经APP获悉，嘉信理财指出，石油输出国组织的减产决定可能限制了油价的短期下跌空间。 由于预期供应增加将导致价格下降，石油期货市场中远期合约(即2026年末至2027年)的价格可能会大幅 下跌。近期合约或较短期的期货合约受到影响可能较小，因为委内瑞拉的重质原油进入市场需要时间， 可能长达数年。 嘉信理财亦指，尽管委内瑞拉局势仍不稳定，并会继续变化，但迄今为止全球市场的反应相对平 稳。后市很大程度上将取决于美国对委内瑞拉的介入程度、两国之外的主要石油生产国将如何回应，以 及能源市场是否会出现剧烈波动。不确定性可能影响长期国债收益率走向，进而引发股市波动，但纵观 历史，地缘政治事件很少对市场产生长期影响。 嘉信理财认为，尽管委内瑞拉并非主要石油出口国，但出于对潜在大宗商品影响的担忧，油价波动 可能会持续。委内瑞拉的石油日产量曾超过300万桶，但现在已低于100万桶。相比之下，美国的日产量 为1300万桶。委 ...

UNFX 1月3日讯（分析师Stephen）新年首周，美元指数仍是市场关注焦点。近期美元稳定在98.00附 近，但随着美国初请失业金、ISM制造业指数等重要经济数据公布，美元可能出现阶段性波动。这些波 动将直接影响黄金白银短线节奏，尤其在白银市场可能放大价格波动。 美国经济数据将提供方向信号 下周，美国将陆续公布关键数据，包括12月非农就业数据、ISM制造业指数、以及房屋销售数据等。这 些数据将影响市场对美联储未来利率决策的预期，从而对贵金属形成直接或间接影响。经济数据偏强， 可能短期打压贵金属避险需求；数据偏弱，则可能提振黄金白银价格。 黄金可能延续高位震荡 在宏观环境不确定、美元波动有限的情况下，黄金可能继续保持高位震荡的态势。价格关键支撑位仍在 4,380–4,400美元区域，上方阻力关注4,500–4,520美元心理关口。短线波动虽存在，但中长期趋势仍偏 多。 白银波动性受放大 白银市场受美元和宏观数据波动影响更明显。本周白银已表现出较高的波动率，下周可能继续沿用类似 模式。支撑关注75–76美元区域，上方阻力在78美元附近。交易者应警惕消息引发的短线拉升或回调。 全球地缘政治事件仍在影响市场情绪，包 ...

Core Insights - Gold futures opened at $3,913.50 per ounce, marking the first time it has opened above $3,900, reflecting a 0.8% increase from the previous close of $3,880.80 [1][4] Price Trends - The current opening price of gold is up 4.2% from the opening price of $3,754.80 one week ago and has increased 9.7% from the opening price of $3,567.80 a month ago [4] - Over the past year, gold prices have surged by 47.3% from the opening price of $2,656 on October 4, 2024 [4] Market Context - Gold's record-high pricing coincides with strong performances in stocks and Bitcoin, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching new highs and Bitcoin surpassing $125,000 for the first time [2] - Despite the U.S. government shutdown and data reporting pauses, there is a high expectation for an interest rate cut later this month, with a 94.6% probability for a quarter-point reduction [2] Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Gold prices typically rise during periods of economic uncertainty and declining interest rates [3] - Key factors affecting gold prices include geopolitical events, central bank buying trends, inflation, interest rates, and mining production [9][14]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have risen over 1.5%, surpassing $3,400 per ounce, driven by increased market risk aversion and weakening of the US dollar and Treasury yields, with analysts identifying four key factors that may determine whether gold can break through $3,500 and challenge historical highs set in the first half of the year [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The US dollar index has declined by 0.6%, falling below the 98 mark, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dropped to a one-week low, indicating a supportive environment for gold prices [3]. - Concerns over US debt growth and potential updates on tariffs are making gold a focal point, with analysts suggesting that the current price levels are well-supported [3][4]. - Discussions around potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are increasing, contributing to market tension and uncertainty [4][5]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - **Central Bank Activity**: Central banks have been significant buyers of gold, and any increase in their purchasing could drive prices up. Conversely, a decrease in demand could lead to a slight decline in prices [8]. - **Geopolitical Events**: Political instability often drives investors towards gold as a safe haven. Current geopolitical tensions have cooled, suggesting that any new crises could provide the necessary boost for gold prices to reach $3,500 [8]. - **Inflation Data**: Any sharp changes in inflation data could signal economic weakness, prompting investors to increase their gold holdings. Future macroeconomic reports influenced by tariffs may also drive demand for higher gold prices [8]. - **US Dollar Trends**: Historically, gold prices have shown a negative correlation with the US dollar. Factors affecting the dollar's performance include Fed rate cut prospects, US economic resilience, and trade war developments [9].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of gold in the second half of the year will be influenced by four key factors, with the potential to challenge the $3500 mark and the historical highs set in the first half of the year [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - International gold prices rose over 1.5%, surpassing $3400 per ounce, marking a five-week high due to increased market risk aversion and weakening of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [1]. - The dollar index fell by 0.6%, dropping below the 98 mark, while the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touched a one-week low, indicating a supportive environment for gold [2]. - Concerns over U.S. debt growth and further tariff updates are drawing attention to gold as a focal point, with prices appearing well-supported [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Global central bank enthusiasm is a significant driver, as central banks have been major buyers of gold, and their purchasing decisions can quickly impact the market [4]. - Geopolitical events often lead investors to shift from stocks and bonds to precious metals, with potential crises in July being a point of concern [4][5]. - Inflation data is crucial, as any sharp changes could signal economic weakness, prompting investors to increase their gold holdings [5]. - The historical negative correlation between gold and the dollar suggests that the outlook for gold prices will be influenced by the dollar's performance, which has seen a decline of over 10% in the first half of the year [5].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown improvement in market sentiment, breaking above the 3400-point mark in late June, leading to optimistic forecasts for the second half of the year [1][2] - The index has previously attempted to breach the 3400-point level multiple times in 2023, with notable attempts in March and May, but faced external pressures such as trade tensions [2] Market Dynamics - The market is expected to operate within a new range of 3400 to 3500 points, with a potential for increased volatility compared to previous ranges, although significant breakthroughs above this range are not anticipated [3][4] - Trading volume is projected to be slightly higher than before but is unlikely to exceed 1.5 trillion yuan [3] Economic Factors - Ongoing uncertainties, including the US-China trade war and geopolitical events, contribute to a lack of stable market conditions, hindering investor confidence and expectations for substantial market gains [4] - The real economy is showing signs of steady recovery, but pressures remain, and the likelihood of new economic policies being introduced in the short term is low [4] Market Behavior - The market is entering a reporting season for half-year results, which may yield both positive and disappointing earnings, potentially affecting investor sentiment [4] - The current market environment exhibits a "two-eight phenomenon," where a few large-cap stocks have performed well while many others lag, complicating the potential for a broad market rally [4] Investment Strategy - A higher bottom in the market indicates that range-bound trading can still be a positive sign for market performance, providing opportunities for individual stock investments [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the outcomes of trade policies in July and the future trajectory of geopolitical events may significantly impact the medium-term economic outlook in India [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in international oil and gold prices due to geopolitical events, particularly the recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which has led to a sharp decline in prices after a period of increase [1][2]. Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices fell from nearly $80 per barrel to below $70 per barrel, with a notable drop of 9% on June 24, causing concerns for investors who had taken long positions [1]. - The volatility in oil prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions, with the last similar significant fluctuation occurring during the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 [1]. - The U.S. has become a major oil supplier, with shale oil production costs ranging from $50 to $60 per barrel, while Middle Eastern and Russian production costs are lower, leading to a more diversified global oil supply [2][3]. - The likelihood of oil prices returning to the highs of nearly $150 per barrel seen in 2008 is low, as increased production from various regions would likely stabilize prices if they rise significantly above production costs [3]. Gold Market Analysis - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are primarily driven by geopolitical events, while long-term trends indicate a rise in gold prices due to global distrust in the U.S. dollar and ongoing purchases by central banks [3]. - The easing of tensions between Israel and Iran has led to a short-term pullback in gold prices, presenting potential investment opportunities in gold-related assets such as gold mining stocks and ETFs [3]. - Historically, gold or gold ETFs tend to reach new highs later than gold mining stocks, suggesting that for long-term investments, gold itself or ETFs may be a more stable choice [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that sell-offs triggered by geopolitical events tend to dissipate quickly [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley strategist Wilson emphasizes the historical trend of rapid recovery following geopolitical-induced market declines [1]