美东时间周一（11月10日），受美国史上最长联邦政府停摆有望解决的影响，美国三大指数集体收涨。 截至收盘，道指涨381.53点，涨幅为0.81%，报47368.63点；纳指涨522.64点，涨幅为2.27%，报 23527.17点；标普500指数涨103.63点，涨幅为1.54%，报6832.43点。此前连续承压的科技巨头集体反 攻，英伟达大涨5.8%，Palantir飙升8.8%，特斯拉涨3.7%，谷歌涨4%，微软涨1.85%，亚马逊涨1.63%。 当天部分美联储官员再次表达了对下次货币政策会议决策的谨慎立场，而理事斯蒂芬·米兰则重申应大 幅降息的观点。与此同时，第三季度财报季已接近尾声。根据LSEG（伦敦证券交易所集团）数据，在 已公布业绩的446家标普500成分股中，83%的公司盈利超出市场预期。 本次美国政府"停摆"，已创下史上最长"停摆"纪录，是联邦政府近七年来的首次"停摆"，同时也是特朗 普任期内的第二次"停摆"。在政府停摆期间，美国财政部总账户余额（TGA）在10月29日达到9840亿美 元，相对于6月2770亿美元的低点，造成约7000亿美元的流动性紧缩效应。在情绪驱动的影响下，美国 股市上周 ...

Market Performance - Global indices mostly rose last week, with MSCI Global up by 0.6%, MSCI Developed Markets up by 0.6%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up by 0.9% [7][31] - Among developed markets, Nikkei 225 had the strongest performance with a gain of 6.3%, while the Australian S&P 200 was the weakest, down by 1.5% [7][31] - In emerging markets, the Mexican MXX index performed best with a rise of 2.7%, while the Hang Seng Index was the worst performer, down by 1.0% [7][31] Trading Sentiment - Global trading volume generally improved, with North American holdings index reaching a historical high [21] - The trading volume for major indices such as the Shanghai Composite, S&P 500, and Nikkei 225 saw fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng Index experiencing declines [21][27] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong improved but remained at a historical low, while sentiment in the US was at a historical high [21][28] Fundamental Analysis - Earnings expectations for US tech and consumer discretionary sectors were significantly revised upwards during the earnings season [63] - The S&P 500's 2025 EPS earnings expectation was adjusted from 269 to 270, with the technology sector seeing the largest upward revision of +2.4 [63][64] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS earnings expectation was revised from 2062 to 2066, with the materials sector seeing the largest increase [63][64] Economic Outlook - Major market sentiment indicators showed a rebound, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US rising due to the Fed's rate cut and improved earnings from tech giants [7][63] - The European Economic Surprise Index also increased, supported by stable ECB rates and a temporary easing of political tensions in France [7][63] - The Chinese Economic Surprise Index rose, bolstered by positive Q3 data and favorable policies [7][63] Capital Flows - The Federal Reserve cut rates as expected, but there were hawkish signals regarding future cuts [52] - As of October 31, market expectations indicated the Fed would cut rates 0.68 times by year-end, a decrease from the previous week [52][53] - Global liquidity trends showed significant inflows into the US, China, India, Japan, and South Korea, with Hong Kong seeing substantial inflows through the Stock Connect program [58][62]

The US and China flags fly as we see a calming in the tariff and trade rhetoric (Photo by Wang Gang/VCG via Getty Images)VCG via Getty ImagesKey Takeaways-Trade talk between US and China helped calm Markets- Tech and Health Care deals over weekend- Earning season continues The trade truce that was established last week between the US and China is having a positive effect on the markets in today’s premarket trading. We saw the Asian markets with a positive reaction overnight (although Japan was closed for a ...

Market Overview - Major U.S. stock index futures are down, with Dow futures falling by 0.33%, S&P 500 futures down by 0.17%, and Nasdaq futures decreasing by 0.20% [1] - Chinese concept stocks are experiencing a broad decline, with Alibaba down 1.68%, NetEase down 2.13%, Trip.com down 2.22%, JD.com down 1.48%, and Baidu down 2.58% [2] Commodity and Financial Performance - Spot gold prices have risen by 1.91%, reaching $4003.83 per ounce [3] - Google's Q3 earnings exceeded expectations, with revenue of $102.35 billion compared to the expected $99.85 billion, and a net profit increase of 41% to $28.5 billion, leading to a stock increase of 7.19% [4] - Meta's Q3 net profit plummeted by 83% to $2.71 billion, primarily due to a one-time non-cash tax expense of $15.93 billion, resulting in an 8.82% drop in stock price [4] - Microsoft's investment in OpenAI resulted in a $3.1 billion decrease in net income for Q1 FY2026, although net profit rose to $27.7 billion from $24.67 billion, causing a 3.03% decline in stock price [4] - Rare earth stocks are generally rising, with MP Materials up 2.01% and USA Rare Earth up 2.98% [4] - Stellantis reported a Q3 net revenue of €37.2 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase, but warned of potential additional costs in the second half of the year, leading to a 4.46% drop in stock price [4] Upcoming Events - Apple and Amazon are set to release their earnings reports after the market closes on Thursday [5] - The U.S. Q3 annualized GDP rate is scheduled for release on October 30 at 20:30 Beijing time [6]

Core Viewpoint - Apple reached a market capitalization of $4 trillion for the first time during intraday trading, although it could not maintain this level by the close of trading [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On Tuesday, Apple's stock price increased by 0.07%, leading to an intraday market cap exceeding $4 trillion [1]. - Microsoft also saw a stock price increase of approximately 2%, allowing it to surpass the $4 trillion market cap and close above this threshold [1]. Group 2: Upcoming Earnings Reports - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming earnings season, with the performance of both Apple and Microsoft being critical indicators for market growth expectations [3]. - Microsoft is set to release its earnings report on Wednesday, while Apple will follow on Thursday [3]. Group 3: iPhone Sales and Analyst Confidence - Strong iPhone sales have significantly contributed to Apple's market cap surge, with a 25% increase in stock price over the past three months, driven by positive sales trends for the newly released iPhone 17 series [4]. - Analyst sentiment is optimistic, with JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee raising Apple's target price to $290 per share, indicating a more favorable outlook entering the earnings season [4]. Group 4: Geopolitical Risk Management - Apple has effectively mitigated geopolitical risks by shifting a significant portion of its supply chain for the U.S. market to India and Vietnam, thereby reducing exposure to potential tariffs [5]. - The company has maintained a positive relationship with the U.S. government regarding domestic manufacturing, which has improved its position in a complex international trade environment [5]. - Chatterjee noted that Apple's accelerated domestic investment and rapid transition of U.S.-market production to India and Vietnam have enhanced its standing in the tariff landscape [5].

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 472.51 points to close at 47,207.12, marking a 1.01% increase; the S&P 500 rose by 0.79% to 6,791.69; and the Nasdaq increased by 1.15% to 23,204.87, all reaching record closing highs [2] - For the week, the Dow Jones increased approximately 2.5%, the S&P 500 rose about 2.8%, and the Nasdaq gained around 3.0%, marking their largest weekly gains since June and August respectively [2] Sector Performance - The majority of the "Big Tech" companies saw stock price increases, with Google A up 2.70%, Nvidia up 2.25%, Amazon up 1.41%, Apple up 1.25%, and Microsoft and Meta Platforms both up 0.59%; however, Tesla experienced a decline of 3.40% [2] - Chinese concept stocks also performed well, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 0.27% and a cumulative increase of 2.4% for the week [2] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, slightly above the previous month's 2.9% but below market expectations of 3.1% [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, indicating a continued easing of inflationary pressures [3] Earnings Season - As of now, 143 companies in the S&P 500 have reported their Q3 earnings, with 87% exceeding profit expectations and 83% surpassing revenue forecasts; overall earnings for the S&P 500 are projected to grow by approximately 10.4%, a significant improvement from the earlier forecast of 8.8% [4] - Upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies such as Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple are anticipated to influence market direction [4] Individual Stock Movements - Coinbase's stock surged by 9.8% after Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating to "Overweight" [4] - Ford reported a Q3 profit that exceeded expectations, leading to a 12.2% increase in its stock price; General Dynamics rose by 2.7%, while Deckers, the parent company of Hoka, fell by 15.2% due to lower-than-expected full-year guidance [4] Bond Market - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note briefly declined after the CPI data release but closed slightly higher at 4%, marking a cumulative drop of about 1 basis point for the week [4] - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 3.484%, increasing by 1.8 basis points for the week [4] Commodity Prices - International oil prices saw a slight decline, with WTI crude oil closing at $61.50 per barrel, down 0.47%, and Brent crude at $65.20 per barrel, down 0.14% [4] - COMEX gold futures experienced a minor drop of 0.19%, settling at $4,137.80 per ounce [4]

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced significant gains, with all three major indices reaching record highs, driven by strong performances from tech giants like Google and Nvidia [3][4] - The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, indicating a slight easing of inflation pressures [5] - The earnings season has started positively, with 87% of S&P 500 companies exceeding earnings expectations, suggesting robust market momentum [5] Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 472.51 points, closing at 47,207.12, marking a weekly increase of approximately 2.5% [3] - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.79%, closing at 6,791.69, with a weekly gain of about 2.8% [3] - The Nasdaq index saw a rise of 1.15%, closing at 23,204.87, achieving a weekly increase of around 3.0% [3] Sector Highlights - The technology sector saw most of the "Big Seven" tech stocks rise, with Google A up 2.70% and Nvidia up 2.25%, while Tesla experienced a decline of 3.40% [3] - Chinese concept stocks also performed well, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 0.27% and a cumulative weekly increase of 2.4% [4] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [5] - Analysts suggest that the mild CPI data could open the door for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming months [5] Earnings Season Insights - As of now, 143 S&P 500 companies have reported Q3 earnings, with 83% surpassing revenue expectations [5] - Analysts project a year-on-year earnings growth of approximately 10.4% for the S&P 500, an improvement from earlier estimates of 8.8% [5] - Upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies like Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple are anticipated to influence market trends [5] Individual Stock Movements - Coinbase's stock surged by 9.8% following an upgrade to "Overweight" by JPMorgan [6] - Ford reported a Q3 profit that exceeded expectations, leading to a 12.2% increase in its stock price [6] - Deckers, the parent company of Hoka, saw a decline of 15.2% due to lower-than-expected full-year guidance [6] Bond and Commodity Markets - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly fell after the CPI data release but closed slightly higher at 4%, marking a cumulative decline of about 1 basis point for the week [6] - International oil prices saw a slight decrease, with WTI crude oil closing at $61.50 per barrel, down 0.47% [6] - COMEX gold futures experienced a minor drop of 0.19%, settling at $4,137.8 per ounce [6]

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of U.S. companies in the third quarter is becoming a key pillar supporting investor confidence amidst a backdrop of absent official economic data and market anxiety [1]. Group 1: Earnings Reports - The earnings season has started positively, with several industry leaders reporting better-than-expected results, such as General Motors, which saw a 15% stock price increase after raising its earnings guidance [2]. - 86% of the 130 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings exceeded analysts' expectations, indicating a robust earnings season [1]. - Dow Chemical's third-quarter profit, although down, fell less than expected, leading to a 13% stock price increase, making it the best performer in the S&P 500 on that day [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.6% on Thursday and has increased by 1.1% for the week, nearing historical highs due to the positive earnings reports [1]. - Las Vegas Sands, a casino and resort operator, saw its stock price jump approximately 12% due to better-than-expected profits from international investments [4]. Group 3: Data Vacuum and Market Focus - The government shutdown has led to a lack of official economic data, forcing investors to focus more on private sector and state-level data, such as a seven-month high in home sales reported by the National Association of Realtors [7]. - Investors are increasingly discussing credit issues due to the absence of macroeconomic data, likening the situation to a casino where players shift their focus to different games [7]. Group 4: Credit Market Concerns - Recent bankruptcies and fraud investigations involving companies like First Brands and Tricolor have raised concerns about the health of the credit market, although many analysts view these as isolated incidents rather than systemic risks [8]. - Some investors remain cautious due to high asset prices, questioning the risk-reward balance in the current tight valuation environment [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the U.S. stock market, highlighting the impact of earnings reports and geopolitical developments on investor sentiment. Market Performance - The U.S. stock market closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 144.2 points (0.31%) at 46,734.61, the S&P 500 up 39.04 points (0.58%) at 6,738.44, and the Nasdaq up 201.4 points (0.89%) at 22,941.8. The Russell 2000 index rose 31.10 points (1.27%) to 2,482.66 [3] - Large-cap tech stocks showed strength, with Intel rising over 3% and later gaining over 6% in after-hours trading. The company reported Q3 revenue of $13.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with an adjusted gross margin of 40%, significantly above the market estimate of 36.1% [3] - Other notable tech stocks included Tesla (+2.28%), Amazon (+1.44%), Nvidia (+1.04%), Google A (+0.55%), Apple (+0.44%), Meta (+0.08%), and Microsoft unchanged [3] - Chinese concept stocks also rebounded, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 1.66%. Alibaba rose over 3%, Baidu nearly 3%, and JD.com over 2% [3] Earnings Reports - The earnings season has shown strong performance, with over 25% of S&P 500 constituents reporting. Approximately 86% of these companies exceeded earnings expectations. Analysts currently forecast a 9.9% year-on-year increase in S&P 500 earnings for Q3, up from 8.8% at the beginning of October [5] - Individual stock movements included IBM down 0.9% due to slowing growth in its key cloud computing business, and Molina Healthcare plunging 17.5% after lowering its annual profit forecast. Honeywell rose 6.8% on strong aviation demand, while American Airlines increased 5.6% after raising its profit outlook [5] Energy Sector - President Trump announced sanctions against Russian oil companies, leading to a surge in international oil prices and making energy stocks the strongest sector of the day. ExxonMobil rose 1.1% and Chevron 0.6%, while Valero Energy surged 7% due to better-than-expected earnings [4][5] - Following the sanctions, WTI crude oil futures rose by $3.29 to $61.79 per barrel (5.62% increase), and Brent crude oil futures increased by $3.40 to $65.99 per barrel (5.43% increase). The S&P 500 energy sector rose 1.3% [6] Other Market Movements - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 4.4 basis points to 3.995%, while the 2-year yield increased by 3.8 basis points to 3.482%, reflecting cautious investor expectations regarding future interest rates [6] - Gold futures also saw an increase, settling at $4,145.6 per ounce, up 1.97%, driven by safe-haven demand [7]

Group 1: US Stock Market Performance - On October 23, US stock indices experienced a slight increase, with Chinese concept stocks rising approximately 1.5% and technology stocks generally performing well [1] - Over 80% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings that exceeded expectations, suggesting that overall earnings may support high stock prices in the short term [2] - Analysts believe that the current earnings season is unlikely to lead to significant market corrections despite individual companies facing penalties for missing expectations [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - The US Labor Statistics Bureau is set to release the September CPI data, which was delayed due to the government shutdown, providing important inflation information for the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting [2] - Economists expect the core CPI, excluding food and energy, to rise by 0.3% for the third consecutive month, maintaining a year-over-year rate of 3.1% [2] - Despite inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's target, a weak labor market is anticipated to lead to a second interest rate cut this year during the October 28-29 meeting [2] Group 3: Binance and Zhao Changpeng's Pardon - Former President Trump has pardoned Zhao Changpeng, the convicted founder of cryptocurrency exchange Binance, which may pave the way for Binance's return to the US market [3][4] - The pardon comes amid a backdrop of the Biden administration's regulatory actions against cryptocurrencies, which have been described as a "war" on the industry [4] - The pardon could potentially end a three-year external monitoring period imposed by the Department of Justice on Binance, which was previously fined $4.3 billion for regulatory violations [5] Group 4: Market Reaction to Pardon - Following the news of the pardon, Binance Coin experienced a significant price surge during trading [6]