Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market experienced a significant crash, with gold dropping 6.3%, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013, catching many investors off guard [1][3]. Market Performance - On October 21, gold prices fell from approximately $4342 to a low of $4086, closing at $4128.27 per ounce, while silver saw an even steeper decline of 8.7%, closing at $48.58 per ounce [3]. - The New York Mercantile Exchange saw December gold futures drop by 4.92% to $4145 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell by 7.69%, indicating a systemic sell-off across the precious metals sector [3][9]. Causes of the Crash - Analysts attribute the crash to profit-taking after significant gains earlier in the year, with gold up over 57% and silver up 67% [5]. - A decrease in safe-haven demand due to easing geopolitical tensions and a more favorable trade outlook between the U.S. and China also contributed to the decline [5][7]. - The strengthening U.S. dollar added pressure, with the dollar index rising approximately 0.4% over three consecutive days, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies [7]. Market Indicators - Technical indicators suggested an overheated market, with gold's relative strength index (RSI) previously exceeding 88, signaling a potential for correction [7]. - The surge in trading volume for gold futures, exceeding daily averages by about 40%, indicated a significant number of traders were selling simultaneously [15]. Institutional Reactions - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, showed a declining trend in holdings prior to the crash, signaling institutional investors' caution [13]. - Divergent views emerged among institutional investors, with some seeing the drop as a normal correction while others expressed concern over the sustainability of current gold prices if retail investors reduce their positions [11][13]. Historical Context - This crash represents the largest single-day decline in gold prices since April 2013, contrasting with a previous drop driven by liquidity issues during the "dollar shortage" in March 2020 [13][17]. - The market is now focused on upcoming U.S. CPI data, which could influence gold prices depending on inflation trends [19].

每经编辑|杜宇 当地时间10月21日，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.47%，标普500指数平收，纳指跌0.16%。其中，道指再创历史新高。费城金银指数大跌9.57%。 大型科技股涨跌不一，亚马逊涨超2%，英特尔、苹果、微软、Meta小幅上涨；谷歌跌超2%，特斯拉跌超1%，英伟达小幅下跌。通用汽车涨近15%，创最 近五年来最佳单日表现。 "人造肉第一股"Beyond Meat大涨超146%，近三个交易日累计涨幅约600%。 | | 03:59 3.635 100 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 03:59 3.635 2.74万 | | | | 03:59 3.630 2300 | | | | 03:59 3.630 | 26 | | | 03:59 3.630 1.90万 | | | 21:30 | 04:00 03:59 3.625 401 | | | 分时量▼ ② 量:147868600 现手:4685 | 2.67 Z 03:59 3.624 | 599 | | 额:6.28亿 | 03:59 3.624 | 37 | | | 04:00 3.620 2.37万 | | | ...

【导读】黄金、白银，崩了 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚黄金、白银价格全崩了，一起看看发生了什么事情。 10月21日晚间，现货黄金暴跌超4%，创下四年来最大单日跌幅；白银暴跌超过6%！ 有分析指出，避险需求有所降温，原因包括：市场预计中美将化解贸易分歧；与此同时，印度的季节性买盘已告一段落。盛 宝银行大宗商品策略师Ole Hansen表示："在最近几个交易日，交易员开始更多地回头张望，因为对回调与盘整的担忧在升 温。正是在调整期间，市场的真实强度才会显现，这次也应该不例外，潜在买盘很可能会限制回撤幅度。" 此外， 美元走强， 令持有其他货币的买家购买黄金的成本上升， 也对金价形成了压制。 有分析师称："从绝对规模看，ETF持有的黄金尚未达到以往峰值，而且过去涨势往往还能延续更久。但历史显示动能终将衰 退，多数情况下买盘最终会转为卖盘。如果延迟公布的数据最终显示美国经济比预期更稳健，金价更大幅度的回撤也许不会 太远。" 白银也在此前年内累计涨近80%之后大幅回落——其涨势同样受与黄金相似的宏观因素驱动，另有伦敦市场的历史性逼仓推 波助澜。基准价现高于纽约期货价，促使交易员将白银运往伦敦以缓解紧张。 独立金属 ...

Current Gold Price Dynamics - International gold prices have been on a downward trend, with the New York Commodity Exchange's August gold futures closing at $3,336.7 per ounce on July 15, down 0.67% for the day [1] - The price was $3,359.1 per ounce on July 14, reflecting a daily decline of 0.15% [3] - As of July 16, the Asian market price hovered around $3,333 per ounce, with short-term support at $3,320 and resistance at $3,370 [4] Domestic Gold Jewelry Price Decline - Major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang have seen their gold jewelry prices drop to between 984 and 1,008 yuan per gram, with some brands experiencing a decline of over 6 yuan per gram within two days [5] - In the Shenzhen Shui Bei wholesale market, gold prices have fallen to 756 yuan per gram, a drop of over 4% from previous highs [5] Core Reasons for Price Decline - The strengthening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields has pressured gold prices, with the US June CPI rising 2.7%, leading to a near-zero probability of a Fed rate cut in July [5] - The easing of geopolitical tensions, such as the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel and a temporary reduction in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has shifted market risk appetite towards equities [6] - Technical selling intensified after gold prices fell below the critical support level of $3,350, triggering stop-loss sell orders [7] - Global gold ETFs have seen net outflows for two consecutive months, with a reduction of 19 tons in May, indicating a shift in institutional investor positions [8] Future Trends and Divergent Views - Bearish View: The decline in geopolitical premiums and technical breakdowns could lead to deeper corrections if the economy achieves a "soft landing," with Citigroup predicting a target price of $2,500 to $2,700 by 2026 [9] - Cautiously Bullish View: Concerns over the weakening dollar and increased gold purchases by global central banks (244 tons added in Q1 2025) suggest potential upward movement, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a target of $3,700 by the end of 2025 [9] - Neutral View: A weak adjustment driven by sentiment in Q3, with potential strength in Q4, with Tokai Futures predicting a range of $2,900 to $3,600 for the year [9] - Key technical levels include support at $3,245, $3,200, and $3,180, with resistance at $3,315 to $3,330 [9] Impact and Recommendations - For consumers, those with wedding needs may consider the Shenzhen Shui Bei wholesale market for lower labor costs, while non-urgent buyers are advised to wait for traditional low-price windows [10] - For investors, it is recommended to build positions gradually through gold ETFs or bank gold savings, with a suggested allocation of 5%-10% of household assets in gold as an inflation hedge [10] - Short-term strategies include light short positions around the $3,315 to $3,330 resistance zone, with strict stop-loss measures [10] Recovery and Liquidation - The recent recovery price is approximately 748 yuan per gram as of July 16, providing an opportunity for holders of idle gold jewelry to liquidate during price rebounds [11]