Current Gold Price Dynamics - International gold prices have been on a downward trend, with the New York Commodity Exchange's August gold futures closing at $3,336.7 per ounce on July 15, down 0.67% for the day [1] - The price was $3,359.1 per ounce on July 14, reflecting a daily decline of 0.15% [3] - As of July 16, the Asian market price hovered around $3,333 per ounce, with short-term support at $3,320 and resistance at $3,370 [4] Domestic Gold Jewelry Price Decline - Major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang have seen their gold jewelry prices drop to between 984 and 1,008 yuan per gram, with some brands experiencing a decline of over 6 yuan per gram within two days [5] - In the Shenzhen Shui Bei wholesale market, gold prices have fallen to 756 yuan per gram, a drop of over 4% from previous highs [5] Core Reasons for Price Decline - The strengthening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields has pressured gold prices, with the US June CPI rising 2.7%, leading to a near-zero probability of a Fed rate cut in July [5] - The easing of geopolitical tensions, such as the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel and a temporary reduction in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has shifted market risk appetite towards equities [6] - Technical selling intensified after gold prices fell below the critical support level of $3,350, triggering stop-loss sell orders [7] - Global gold ETFs have seen net outflows for two consecutive months, with a reduction of 19 tons in May, indicating a shift in institutional investor positions [8] Future Trends and Divergent Views - Bearish View: The decline in geopolitical premiums and technical breakdowns could lead to deeper corrections if the economy achieves a "soft landing," with Citigroup predicting a target price of $2,500 to $2,700 by 2026 [9] - Cautiously Bullish View: Concerns over the weakening dollar and increased gold purchases by global central banks (244 tons added in Q1 2025) suggest potential upward movement, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a target of $3,700 by the end of 2025 [9] - Neutral View: A weak adjustment driven by sentiment in Q3, with potential strength in Q4, with Tokai Futures predicting a range of $2,900 to $3,600 for the year [9] - Key technical levels include support at $3,245, $3,200, and $3,180, with resistance at $3,315 to $3,330 [9] Impact and Recommendations - For consumers, those with wedding needs may consider the Shenzhen Shui Bei wholesale market for lower labor costs, while non-urgent buyers are advised to wait for traditional low-price windows [10] - For investors, it is recommended to build positions gradually through gold ETFs or bank gold savings, with a suggested allocation of 5%-10% of household assets in gold as an inflation hedge [10] - Short-term strategies include light short positions around the $3,315 to $3,330 resistance zone, with strict stop-loss measures [10] Recovery and Liquidation - The recent recovery price is approximately 748 yuan per gram as of July 16, providing an opportunity for holders of idle gold jewelry to liquidate during price rebounds [11]