Workflow
酒企煎熬期
icon
Search documents
招商证券:“酒企煎熬期”已至 底部信号明显
智通财经网· 2025-03-31 23:22
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while demand has not shown signs of reversal, there is a clear trend of supply contraction, indicating that the industry is entering a "distress period" for liquor companies [1] - Demand remains weak but is in line with expectations, with companies controlling inventory to maintain prices, leading to improved dealer sentiment [1] - The current market conditions suggest that although the performance of the sector may continue to be under pressure for the next 1-2 quarters, the health of the distribution channels is beginning to improve, signaling a potential bottoming out of stock prices ahead of the fundamentals [1] Group 2 - Liquor companies are adopting a more pragmatic and stable approach to operations, with a notable "Matthew effect" in the industry [2] - Moutai emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the price of its flagship product, while Wuliangye is undergoing necessary reforms to enhance direct consumer engagement [2] - Other companies like Laojiao and Fenjiu are also improving their operational strategies, focusing on digital transformation and enhancing consumer connections to drive sales [2]
上一轮白酒调整期与本轮对比专题报告:产业底部确立,股价反转可期
CMS· 2025-03-18 05:49
Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, indicating that the overall upward risk outweighs the downward risk, especially with the current low positioning of the sector [1][3]. Core Insights - The industry is currently in a "corporate agony period," with signs of a bottom reversal established. The report suggests that while performance may be under pressure in the next two quarters, stock prices are expected to rebound [1][7][27]. - High-end liquor and strong regional brands are anticipated to lead the market recovery, with a particular focus on the evolution of Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu [1][7][42]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Historical Review of the Industry - The previous adjustment period from 2012 to 2015 saw stock prices decline ahead of performance, with a notable drop of 61% in the index from its peak [11][16]. - The report outlines two phases during the last cycle: the "channel agony period" and the "corporate agony period," highlighting how stock prices often lead performance by 2-3 quarters [11][20]. Section 2: Current Cycle Analysis - The current cycle has transitioned from a "channel agony period" starting in 2022 to a "corporate agony period," with inventory levels decreasing and market conditions improving [7][27]. - The report notes that the current adjustment has been less severe than the previous one, with the index experiencing a 45% decline from its peak, compared to a more rapid decline in the earlier cycle [27][30]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong market dynamics and improved strategic capabilities, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, which are expected to outperform due to their robust distribution networks and mature pricing strategies [1][7][42]. - It also highlights the potential for leading brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye to benefit from the recovery, as they have historically led rebounds in previous cycles [1][42]. Section 4: Market Performance Metrics - The report provides data on the industry scale, noting 143 listed companies with a total market value of 5,313 billion [3]. - It also includes performance metrics, indicating a 6.3% absolute performance over one month and a 37.6% performance over six months [5].