Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Baijiu Market - The baijiu market is currently in a low season, with sales accounting for less than 5% of the annual total, primarily driven by events like graduation banquets [1][3] - There is a slight increase in demand for liquor priced below 300 yuan, with expectations for improved sales in the second half of the year, particularly around the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [1][4] - Inventory pressure is evident, but it is expected to ease after October, reducing the risk of stockpiling or unsold goods before the 2026 Spring Festival [1][5] Company Performance: Moutai and Other Leading Brands - Moutai maintains profitability for distributors through a tiered pricing strategy, with wholesale prices for its flagship products ranging from 1,900 to 2,000 yuan, and actual prices exceeding 2,000 yuan [1][6][7] - The overall performance expectation for the baijiu market in Q2 is low, with many companies struggling to sustain growth; however, leading brands like Moutai are still expected to show growth [1][8] - Current valuations for baijiu companies are between 13 to 16 times earnings, which is considered normal; valuations could rise to 15 to 20 times if external risks are mitigated [1][9] Market Dynamics and Future Expectations - The baijiu market is expected to see improved sales in the second half of the year, with a potential recovery in gifting demand during the festive season [1][4] - The overall sentiment in the market is improving, with cash flow pressures on distributors easing, which may lead to better sales performance [1][10] Other Notable Insights - The beer sector is performing well, with Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer reporting net profit growth of 25% to 35% and 15% to 25%, respectively [3][11] - The seasoning industry is stabilizing, with companies like Haitian Flavor Industry expected to achieve mid-single-digit revenue growth and double-digit profit growth [3][24] - The snack food sector is also showing strong growth, with companies like Yanjin and Weilong performing well despite some cost pressures [3][15] Conclusion - The baijiu market is currently facing challenges due to seasonal factors but is expected to recover in the latter half of the year, particularly if gifting demand returns to normal levels. Leading brands like Moutai are positioned to maintain profitability through strategic pricing and product offerings. The overall sentiment in the food and beverage industry remains cautiously optimistic, with several sectors, including beer and snacks, showing robust performance.

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong Q1 2025 performance with total revenue of 51.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26.85 billion yuan, up 11.6%, slightly exceeding market expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue slightly exceeded expectations, achieving a strong start to the year [1] - The company is advancing its "three transformations" strategy, preparing for the peak sales season during the Spring Festival, with both Moutai liquor and series liquor driving growth [1] - Moutai liquor revenue reached 43.56 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, with key products contributing to growth [1] - Series liquor revenue was 7.02 billion yuan, up 18.3% year-on-year, benefiting from increased channel investment [1] - Wholesale channel revenue was 27.36 billion yuan, a 3.9% increase, while direct sales revenue was 23.22 billion yuan, up 20.2%, with direct sales accounting for 45.9% of total revenue [1][2] Group 2: Profitability and Cost Management - Q1 2025 gross margin was 92.1%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a slight product mix shift [2] - The net profit margin improved by 0.5 percentage points to 54.0% due to a decrease in operating tax rates and a slight increase in overall expense ratios [2] - Cash collection from sales reached 56.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, indicating stable cash flow [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company aims for a revenue growth target of approximately 9% for 2025, with Q1 performance laying a solid foundation for achieving this goal [2] - The company maintains strong brand power and confidence in driving the "three transformations" in the domestic market, aiming for sustainable development [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 75.48 yuan, 82.68 yuan, and 90.24 yuan, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings ratios of 20x, 19x, and 17x [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][12]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of approximately 15% in 2024, with a target revenue growth of 9% for 2025 [1][5]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 174.14 billion yuan, with a net profit of 86.23 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 15.66% and 15.38%, respectively [1][5]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 75% for 2024, consistent with its dividend return plan [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company expects revenue from Moutai liquor to reach 145.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.28%, and a sales volume of 46,000 tons, up 10.22% [2]. - The series liquor segment is anticipated to grow faster than Moutai liquor, with a revenue of 24.68 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 19.65% [2]. - The gross profit margin for Moutai liquor is projected to decline slightly due to increased labor costs, while the wholesale channel is expected to grow significantly [2][3]. Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with expected revenues of 190.75 billion yuan and 207.07 billion yuan, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 9.5% and 8.6% [5][11]. - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 94.27 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [5][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 75.04 yuan in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 9.3% [5][11]. Market Strategy - The company aims to respect market dynamics in its product launch strategy, focusing on stabilizing prices and adjusting distribution channels for its products [4]. - The sales model for Moutai 1935 is undergoing reform, with expected growth concentrated in kilogram packaging and cultural IP products [4]. - Increased marketing expenses are planned to expand diversified channels and promote genuine consumer engagement [4].

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月03日 贵州茅台（600519.SH） 优于大市 2024 年稳健收官，2025 年目标收入增长 9% 2024 年收入及净利润高于此前预告。2024 年公司实现营业总收入 1741.4 亿 元/同比+15.66%，归母净利润 862.3 亿元/同比+15.38%。其中 2024Q4 实现 营业总收入510.2亿元/同比+12.77%，归母净利润254.0亿元/同比+16.21%， 高于此前预告值。结合中期分红计算 2024 年度分红率 75%，与分红回报规 划一致。 2024 年增长稳健，系列酒增速快于茅台酒。茅台酒 2024 年营收 1459.3 亿元 /+15.28%，销量 4.6 万吨/+10.22%（增量 4303 吨），吨价 314.4 万元/+4.59%， 主要系普飞提价拉动，增量预计多由公斤装飞天、生肖茅台贡献。茅台酒毛 利率同比下降 0.1pcts，主要系人工成本提高所致；飞天提价驱动 2024 年 批发渠道增长较快（收入同比+19.73%），而经销商增量公斤装又导致直销 渠道吨价下降（同比-4.48%）。系列酒 2024 年营收 246.8 亿元/+19. ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while demand has not shown signs of reversal, there is a clear trend of supply contraction, indicating that the industry is entering a "distress period" for liquor companies [1] - Demand remains weak but is in line with expectations, with companies controlling inventory to maintain prices, leading to improved dealer sentiment [1] - The current market conditions suggest that although the performance of the sector may continue to be under pressure for the next 1-2 quarters, the health of the distribution channels is beginning to improve, signaling a potential bottoming out of stock prices ahead of the fundamentals [1] Group 2 - Liquor companies are adopting a more pragmatic and stable approach to operations, with a notable "Matthew effect" in the industry [2] - Moutai emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the price of its flagship product, while Wuliangye is undergoing necessary reforms to enhance direct consumer engagement [2] - Other companies like Laojiao and Fenjiu are also improving their operational strategies, focusing on digital transformation and enhancing consumer connections to drive sales [2]