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浙商证券:重视酒类新消费投资机会 重点推荐珍酒李渡(06979)
智通财经网· 2025-09-02 04:53
Core Viewpoint - The report from Zheshang Securities emphasizes the investment opportunities arising from innovations in new categories, products, and channels within the liquor industry, with a short-term focus on new consumer products and a long-term focus on sales validation and product iteration, particularly recommending Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) which has a standout product "Dazhen" [1] Group 1: New Consumption Concept - New consumption in the liquor sector refers to products that emphasize innovation in product, channel, and model, with examples including: 1) Product innovation: sparkling yellow wine, tea beer, Meijian, and low-alcohol products from leading liquor companies [2] - Model innovation examples include Dazhen, Jiugui·Ziyouai, Xinbah, and Niushi Beer [2] Group 2: Investment Logic - Unlike traditional consumer goods that focus on immediate performance and recent growth, new consumption liquor stocks are expected to incorporate measurable future performance into current expectations, with significant investment opportunities arising from short-term catalysts, mid-term performance realization, and long-term growth potential [3] - A comparative analysis of stock prices for traditional liquor consumption (e.g., Kweichow Moutai), new consumption (e.g., Huadiao Mountain), and leading new consumption (e.g., Pop Mart) reveals that Moutai's price fluctuations are influenced by multiple cycles rather than single products or channels [3] - Huadiao Mountain's recent stock price surge is attributed to price increases and market anticipation of future high-end positioning and channel changes, necessitating ongoing performance realization [3] - Pop Mart's stock price increase is driven by the success of its flagship product labubu, with continuous performance realization and upward revisions of profit forecasts [3] Group 3: Case Studies - Huadiao Mountain is focusing on brand rejuvenation and premiumization, aligning with consumer trends towards upgrading consumption [4] - Bairun Co. is leveraging a dual-driven model of "pre-mixed drinks + whiskey" to establish quality standards and brand recognition in the domestic whiskey market [4] - Zhenjiu Lidu launched the strategic flagship product "Dazhen" in June 2025, aiming for a mid-term target of 6 billion yuan, supported by team capabilities and three major innovations [4] - Jiugui Liquor partnered with Pang Donglai to launch "Jiugui Liquor·Ziyouai," which sold out after multiple restocks, reflecting innovative channel strategies and consumer trends [4]
浙商证券:重视酒类新消费投资机会 重点推荐珍酒李渡
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 04:49
1)会稽山:公司通过品牌重塑发力年轻化、高端化,在原有产品基础上适当提价,符合目前大众消费升 级的趋势和消费习惯,作为黄酒龙头,有望引领行业发展。2)百润股份(002568):公司依托"预调酒 +威士忌"双轮驱动模式,使公司在保持预调酒市场优势的同时,正逐步建立国产威士忌的品质标准和 品牌认知,打造中国烈酒市场的新增长极。3)珍酒李渡:公司在25年6月推出战略大单品"大珍",并匹 配推出创新的万商联盟模式,大珍或有望成为公司新的增长极,中期目标或达60亿元规模,主要得益于 团队能力突出+三大创新。4)酒鬼酒(000799):公司25年7月携手胖东来推出"酒鬼酒.自由爱",三度 补货仍售罄,源自创新酒类渠道模式+顺应消费者趋势。 该行认为酒类新消费指酒类赛道中注重产品创新、渠道创新、模式创新的产品,代表产品包括:1)产品 创新:气泡黄酒、茶啤、梅见、果立方等,以及近期众多白酒头部酒企推出的低度白酒产品(如29度五 粮液(000858)、轻度古20、舍得自在等)、高酒质的性价比光瓶酒(如3年陈洋河大曲、古井老瓷贡、 献礼版玻汾等);2)模式创新:大珍、酒鬼.自由爱、辛巴赫、牛市啤酒等。 酒类新消费投资逻辑 风险提 ...