Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively rose today, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.34% closing at 3888.60 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.85% at 12984.08 points, and the ChiNext Index up 0.70% at 3052.59 points [2] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was only 158.58 billion, a decrease of 124 billion from the previous day [3] Market Dynamics - Despite the positive index performance, there is a concern regarding insufficient volume to support the upward trend, as today's trading volume shrank to 1.58 trillion, failing to break through 1.6 trillion [3] - The market experienced a "step back" pattern, with significant upward movement concentrated before the morning close, followed by a consolidation phase in the afternoon [3] - Key stocks like Ningde Times and the brokerage sector, particularly CITIC Securities, played a crucial role in driving the indices higher [3][4] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector showed strength, with stocks like Cambrian Technology experiencing significant price movements, rising from a drop of 1.6% to an increase of 2.08%, reaching a peak of 1347 yuan per share [6] - The battery sector, led by Ningde Times, was one of the strongest performing sectors of the day, contributing to the overall market strength [6] - The median increase in individual stock prices was 0.98%, with a rare net inflow of 8 billion in capital, although this amount is still considered low compared to typical outflows [6] Notable Events - Vanke, facing debt issues, saw its stock price drop to a new low of 5.27 yuan per share, with a maximum decline of 3.47%, although the overall real estate sector rose by 1.1% [7] - The robotics sector is under scrutiny due to warnings from the National Development and Reform Commission about issues of redundancy and low industry quality, with over half of the 150 domestic manufacturers facing these challenges [7] Hong Kong Market - The Hang Seng Index opened high but fluctuated downwards, failing to close in the green, with a trading volume of only 140 billion HKD, indicating a cautious attitude among investors [7]

Quantitative Models and Factor Construction Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: TPS (Turnover Price Stability) - **Model Construction Idea**: The TPS factor is constructed from the perspective of examining the stability of daily turnover rates, aiming to improve the traditional turnover rate factor by incorporating price factors[1][9]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the average turnover rate over the past 20 trading days (Turn20). - Neutralize the turnover rate by market capitalization. - Use the shadow difference as the price factor to pair with the Turn20 factor. - Construct the TPS factor by combining the turnover rate and the price factor[6][9]. - **Model Evaluation**: The TPS factor significantly outperforms traditional turnover rate factors and maintains good stock-picking ability even after removing market style and industry interference[1][9]. Model Name: SPS (Stable Price Stability) - **Model Construction Idea**: Similar to the TPS factor, the SPS factor is constructed from the perspective of examining the stability of daily turnover rates, aiming to improve the traditional turnover rate factor by incorporating price factors[1][9]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the average turnover rate over the past 20 trading days (Turn20). - Neutralize the turnover rate by market capitalization. - Use the shadow difference as the price factor to pair with the Turn20 factor. - Construct the SPS factor by combining the turnover rate and the price factor[6][9]. - **Model Evaluation**: The SPS factor significantly outperforms traditional turnover rate factors and maintains strong stock-picking ability even after removing market style and industry interference[1][9]. Model Backtesting Results TPS Model - **Annualized Return**: 39.34%[1][11] - **Annualized Volatility**: 15.74%[1][11] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 2.50[1][11] - **Monthly Win Rate**: 77.54%[1][11] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 18.19%[1][11] SPS Model - **Annualized Return**: 43.18%[1][12] - **Annualized Volatility**: 13.16%[1][12] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 3.28[1][12] - **Monthly Win Rate**: 83.47%[1][12] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 11.58%[1][12] Factor Backtesting Results TPS Factor - **10-Group Long Portfolio Return**: 4.09%[1][12] - **10-Group Short Portfolio Return**: -1.73%[1][12] - **10-Group Long-Short Portfolio Return**: 5.82%[1][12] SPS Factor - **10-Group Long Portfolio Return**: 4.22%[1][14] - **10-Group Short Portfolio Return**: -0.78%[1][14] - **10-Group Long-Short Portfolio Return**: 5.00%[1][14]

Core Viewpoint - Understanding the trading rules and timeframes in the A-share market is crucial for investors to avoid pitfalls and seize opportunities, especially during the critical closing moments of trading [1][9]. Trading Time Rules - A-share trading is divided into four phases: 1. Pre-opening auction (9:15-9:25) where orders can be placed but not canceled after 9:20 [6]. 2. Continuous trading (9:30-11:30, 13:00-14:57) where prices fluctuate in real-time and orders can be placed or canceled freely [6]. 3. Closing auction (14:57-15:00) where orders can be placed but not canceled, with the final price determined by the weighted average of all valid orders before 15:00 [6]. Importance of Closing Auction - The last three minutes of trading are critical for observing market movements, with approximately 20% of intraday volatility occurring in this timeframe, often influenced by major players [3]. Case Studies - **Case 1: Closing Surge Trap**: A consumer stock saw a sudden surge of 4% in the last three minutes, misleading investors into thinking it was a positive signal, resulting in a loss of 8% the next day due to a sell-off by short-term traders [4]. - **Case 2: Closing Plunge Opportunity**: A new energy stock experienced significant selling pressure before the close, which was interpreted as a selling opportunity, leading to a successful exit before a subsequent drop [5]. Cautionary Points - Investors should be wary of "false fund flows" where large orders may be split to mislead retail investors, and should analyze data from multiple sources, including the龙虎榜 (Dragon and Tiger List) and price levels [8]. - Avoid "point-in-time orders" as broker systems may have different cut-off times, leading to potential order failures [8]. - Use limit orders instead of market orders during volatile closing periods to avoid unfavorable price discrepancies [8]. Strategies for Short-term Investors - **Volume-Price Coordination**: Look for stocks with a significant increase in volume (over 50% compared to the previous hour) and that are above the 5-day moving average, indicating a higher probability of price increase the next day [10]. - **Sector Linkage Effect**: Monitor sectors with notable closing gains and select stocks within those sectors that have not yet surged significantly [10]. - **Avoid High-Position Closing Stocks**: Be cautious of stocks that have risen over 20% in three consecutive days and show signs of volume stagnation at the close, as this may indicate selling by major players [10].

先说清楚啊，做T这事儿得有个大前提：你得先有底仓，中长线逻辑没变的情况下，拿部分仓位来打游击。就像你买了块金子放家里，平时拿边角料出来倒 腾倒腾赚点零花钱，主心骨可不能动。 各位朋友大家好，我是帮主郑重，20年财经记者转行的老股民，专门跟中长线死磕。今儿咱打开天窗说亮话，聊聊分时图做T这事儿——这可是我抽屉底儿 的实战干货，说白了就是怎么在中长线持仓里，借着日内波动薅主力羊毛。 最后说说尾盘异动。有些主力喜欢玩偷袭，临近收盘半小时突然拉一波或者砸一波。这时候你得擦亮眼睛：要是尾盘急拉没量，大概率是虚晃一枪，这时候 卖就对了，别等着明天低开闷杀；要是尾盘急跌带量，先别急着割肉，看看是不是故意砸盘洗人，只要日线趋势没破，第二天低开反而是捡便宜的机会。记 住啊，尾盘做T讲究一个"快准狠"，别拖泥带水，赚个盒饭钱就撤。 有人可能会问：做T会不会卖飞大牛股？实话实说，这种情况确实有，但咱中长线仓位还在呢，怕啥？做T的本质是"锦上添花"，不是"赌身家性命"。我给大 家提个醒：每次做T的仓位别超过底仓的三分之一，设好止损位，比如跌破当天最低点就认栽离场，别跟市场较劲。心态放平和点，就当是给持股过程加 点"调味料"，赚了开心 ...