Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that a turnover rate exceeding 15% in the A-share market is a reliable indicator of institutional investors entering the market, serving as a signal for retail investors to take action [1][3]. Group 1: Understanding Turnover Rate - Turnover rate is defined as the proportion of shares traded in a day relative to the total circulating shares, indicating the "activity level" of a stock [3]. - In 2025, the average turnover rate for A-share main board stocks was reported at only 1.03%-1.37%, while the Sci-Tech Innovation Board had a slightly higher range of 1.85%-2.30% [3]. - A turnover rate of 15% signifies that nearly one-fifth of the circulating shares have changed hands, indicating a highly active trading environment [3]. Group 2: Low Turnover Rate as a Buying Signal - A high turnover rate at low price levels is a strong indicator that institutional investors are accumulating shares, as they have limited profit-taking opportunities [4]. - Data from 2025 shows that stocks with a turnover rate between 15%-20% and a price drop of over 40% in the past year had a 67% probability of rising in the following 10 days [4]. - Characteristics of genuine institutional buying include a volume increase of 50%-80% compared to the previous five trading days, without a sudden drop in turnover rate [4]. Group 3: High Turnover Rate as a Selling Trap - Retail investors often misinterpret a high turnover rate at elevated price levels as a buying signal, leading to potential losses [6]. - In 2025, stocks with a turnover rate exceeding 20% and a price increase of over 50% in the last three months had a 76% probability of declining in the following month [6]. - Indicators of a selling trap include high turnover with stagnant price movement or significant net selling by institutional investors [6]. Group 4: Practical Guidelines for Investors - Investors should first assess the stock's price position, looking for a drop of over 30% and a position below the 60-day moving average before considering a 15% turnover rate as reliable [7]. - The turnover rate must be accompanied by sustained volume increases; a sudden spike followed by a drop is likely a false signal [7]. - Basic fundamentals should also be considered, as stocks with strong performance forecasts and policy support have a higher probability of rising compared to those without [7]. Group 5: Conclusion on Turnover Rate - While there are no absolute indicators in the A-share market, turnover rate serves as a significant marker of institutional activity that cannot be easily manipulated [8]. - Retail investors are advised to focus on turnover rates in conjunction with price position, volume, and fundamentals to better understand institutional intentions [8].

Core Viewpoint - Understanding the trading rules and timeframes in the A-share market is crucial for investors to avoid pitfalls and seize opportunities, especially during the critical closing moments of trading [1][9]. Trading Time Rules - A-share trading is divided into four phases: 1. Pre-opening auction (9:15-9:25) where orders can be placed but not canceled after 9:20 [6]. 2. Continuous trading (9:30-11:30, 13:00-14:57) where prices fluctuate in real-time and orders can be placed or canceled freely [6]. 3. Closing auction (14:57-15:00) where orders can be placed but not canceled, with the final price determined by the weighted average of all valid orders before 15:00 [6]. Importance of Closing Auction - The last three minutes of trading are critical for observing market movements, with approximately 20% of intraday volatility occurring in this timeframe, often influenced by major players [3]. Case Studies - **Case 1: Closing Surge Trap**: A consumer stock saw a sudden surge of 4% in the last three minutes, misleading investors into thinking it was a positive signal, resulting in a loss of 8% the next day due to a sell-off by short-term traders [4]. - **Case 2: Closing Plunge Opportunity**: A new energy stock experienced significant selling pressure before the close, which was interpreted as a selling opportunity, leading to a successful exit before a subsequent drop [5]. Cautionary Points - Investors should be wary of "false fund flows" where large orders may be split to mislead retail investors, and should analyze data from multiple sources, including the龙虎榜 (Dragon and Tiger List) and price levels [8]. - Avoid "point-in-time orders" as broker systems may have different cut-off times, leading to potential order failures [8]. - Use limit orders instead of market orders during volatile closing periods to avoid unfavorable price discrepancies [8]. Strategies for Short-term Investors - **Volume-Price Coordination**: Look for stocks with a significant increase in volume (over 50% compared to the previous hour) and that are above the 5-day moving average, indicating a higher probability of price increase the next day [10]. - **Sector Linkage Effect**: Monitor sectors with notable closing gains and select stocks within those sectors that have not yet surged significantly [10]. - **Avoid High-Position Closing Stocks**: Be cautious of stocks that have risen over 20% in three consecutive days and show signs of volume stagnation at the close, as this may indicate selling by major players [10].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent trends in coal and cotton prices, highlighting the narrowing increase in coking coal prices and the continuous decline in cotton prices [1] Group 1: Price Trends - Coking coal prices have experienced a reduction in their growth rate, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - Cotton prices are on a downward trend, suggesting ongoing challenges in the cotton market [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The relationship between price, trading volume, and open interest is emphasized as a key indicator for understanding the movements of major market players [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses a case study on futures trading tools, focusing on how to analyze the relationship between price, trading volume, and open interest to gain insights into the actions of major market players [1] Group 1: Price Analysis - The article emphasizes the importance of price movements in understanding market trends and potential reversals [1] - It highlights that significant price changes often correlate with shifts in trading volume, indicating the presence of strong market participants [1] Group 2: Volume Analysis - The relationship between trading volume and price is explored, suggesting that increased volume can validate price trends [1] - The article notes that a sudden spike in volume may signal the entry or exit of major players, providing clues for traders [1] Group 3: Open Interest Insights - Open interest is discussed as a critical indicator of market sentiment, with rising open interest suggesting that new money is entering the market [1] - The article points out that changes in open interest, when analyzed alongside price and volume, can reveal the strength of a price trend [1]