Group 1 - Morgan Stanley suggests shorting the dollar in a "blonde girl" environment where US stocks rise while Treasury losses are controlled [1] - Bank of America warns that tightening credit conditions may trigger passive selling, indicating potential bear market signals for the stock market [1] - Goldman Sachs expects a 0.3% month-on-month increase in both overall and core CPI for September, maintaining core inflation around 3.1% [2] Group 2 - Societe Generale indicates that a mild recession in the US could lead to a weaker dollar due to potential rate cuts [3] - UBS believes that the Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates in the coming months, supported by rising long-term inflation expectations [4] - Citigroup does not anticipate that the new Japanese Prime Minister will pressure the Bank of Japan to avoid rate hikes, given the current economic context [5] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs predicts Brent crude oil prices will drop to $52 per barrel by Q4 next year, citing inventory increases and refining margins [8] - Singapore Bank notes that investors may still be keen to increase gold allocations during price pullbacks, raising their 12-month gold price forecast to $4,600 per ounce [9] - Canadian banks forecast record corporate earnings for Q3, supporting the Toronto stock market's upward trend [10] Group 4 - Huachuang Securities reports a recovery in fund allocations to credit bonds, suggesting opportunities in 4-5 year maturities [11] - Galaxy Securities highlights a market style shift benefiting the food and beverage index, with a focus on new consumption trends [12] - CITIC Securities observes a divergence in economic data for September, with production remaining resilient while demand indicators decline [13] Group 5 - CITIC Securities notes that recent adjustments to Hainan's duty-free shopping policy could boost sales, enhancing consumer experience and increasing foot traffic [14] - CITIC Securities also reports advancements in solid-state battery technology, which may accelerate the commercialization process [15]

格隆汇10月20日｜摩根士丹利最新研究报告指出，若投资者希望从"金发女孩"环境中获利——即美股上 涨而国债损失受控的局面，应当选择做空美元。该行通过历史数据分析美元与标普500指数及10年期基 准美债每日回报的关联性，从中筛选出八类美国资产表现模式，上述场景正在其列。今年早些时候，美 元与其他资产的联动关系曾成为市场焦点——美元与股市同步下跌背离其传统避险属性。此后美元与股 市的传统负相关性重新显现：本月初标普500指数飙升至新纪录高位时，美元汇率却持续徘徊于低位。 根据摩根士丹利分析显示，在美股涨幅达到1.25个标准差或更高的交易日之后六个月内，若美元和10年 期美债收益率下行幅度未超过1.25个标准差，做空美元兑英镑将成为最佳交易策略。 ...