Group 1 - The article discusses the resurgence of the "Goldilocks" trade in overseas markets, driven by the successful implementation of the "Beautiful Act" and lower-than-expected inflation data, which has alleviated market concerns about economic slowdown and interest rate hikes [2][6] - The article highlights that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has caused temporary market disturbances, but the overall market reaction to tariff adjustments has been relatively muted, with the S&P 500 experiencing only a slight decline [21][2] - The article notes that the domestic market is witnessing a mild economic recovery, with consumer policies effectively stimulating demand, as evidenced by a significant increase in retail sales growth in May [3][29] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that the focus for July will be on potential inflation risks in overseas markets and the "anti-involution" policies in the domestic market, with evidence suggesting that inflation in the U.S. may begin to rise due to various factors [55][62] - It mentions that the domestic economy is seeing a shift towards service sector recovery, with increased investment and consumption in services, while export pressures may be building [62][39] - The article outlines the government's focus on addressing "involution" through supply-demand adjustments and structural upgrades, indicating a broader scope for policy implementation [69][49]

（一）6 月海外市场主线？美国"金发女郎"交易再起，伊以、关税风波阶段性扰动 宏 观 研 究 宏观"月月谈"系列之八 2025 年 07 月 13 日 关税效应进入"数据验证期" —— 7 月宏观月报 6 月，海外市场再现"金发女郎"交易，国内市场情绪也在经济的温和复苏中持续提振。随着 关税效应的逐步显现，滞胀预期如何验证、市场交易的主线如何切换？本文分析，供参考。 一、宏观月报：关税效应进入"数据验证期" 国内方面，反内卷或仍是核心聚焦；政策或通过供需端总量调控、结合产业结构转型升级。1） 总量层面，破解"内卷"困境重点或在缓解供需矛盾。2）结构方面，或主要通过政策引导、 行业自律等推动供给创新升级。经济数据，聚焦服务业景气的接力与出口数据的验证。 6 月以来，"金发女郎"交易再度成为海外市场的主线。原因有三方面：1）《美丽大法案》推 进顺利、并在 7 月 4 日成功落地，打消了市场前期对"法案推进受阻"、"X-date 临近"等担 忧；2）5 月通胀数据低于预期，降息空间边际打开。3）经济温和走弱，但就业数据韧性十足。 伊以冲突一度引发市场的阶段性担忧，关税风暴虽再度来袭、但市场反应相对平淡。1）伊以 冲 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the resurgence of the "Goldilocks" trade in overseas markets, driven by the successful implementation of the "Beautiful Act" and favorable economic indicators such as lower-than-expected inflation and resilient employment data [2][6][21] - The article highlights that the domestic market is experiencing a mild economic recovery, with consumer policies effectively stimulating demand, as evidenced by a significant increase in retail sales growth in May [3][29] - The article notes that the manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, indicating a faster recovery in domestic orders compared to new export orders [3][29] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation risks in the U.S. as the focus shifts to potential price increases following the recent rise in retail prices and manufacturing price indices [4][55] - It discusses the ongoing "anti-involution" policies in China, which aim to alleviate supply-demand imbalances and promote structural upgrades in industries [4][69] - The article mentions that the financial market sentiment has been positively influenced by policies promoting financial openness and the lack of further tariff increases on China during recent U.S.-China trade negotiations [3][49]