第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 1）供需层面：当前PE格局变化不大。供给方面，10月装置检修量相较9月总体回落，供应重回高位。同时， 由于海外PE供需持续偏弱，外盘价格下跌，预计在10-11月带来进口增加，进一步加剧供应压力。需求方面， 尽管当前处于传统旺季，但需求回升节奏偏缓，下游订单跟进不足，企业补库意愿较低。并且，PE库存，尤 其是LLDPE库存处于较高水平，中上游出货压力较大。因此，供强需弱的格局导致PE缺乏支撑。 2）宏观层面：美国政府的持续停摆，叠加市场对信贷风险的担忧，进一步加剧了金融市场的避险情绪，对原 油构成利空压力。此外，当前中美贸易政策仍存在较大不确定性，若贸易摩擦再度升级，可能引发原油及化 工品价格进一步下探。不过，下周即将召开的第二十届四中全会值得关注，若有新的刺激政策出台，或将为 市场情绪带来一定提振。所以，下周仍需重点关注宏观动向以及成本端波动。 南华期货塑料产业周报 ——悲观情绪带动下跌，近期政策动向为关注重点 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年10 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have initiated a new upward trend, driven by increased market risk aversion and global central bank purchases [1][4][6] Group 1: Gold Price Performance - During the week of June 9 to June 13, international gold prices rose for four consecutive trading days, with COMEX gold futures and London gold spot prices both increasing over 3% [1][3] - As of June 13, COMEX gold futures closed at $3,452.6 per ounce, up 1.47% for the day and 3.18% for the week, while London gold spot prices closed at $3,433.35 per ounce, up 1.40% for the day and 3.74% for the week [3] - Since 2025, COMEX gold futures have increased by 30.73%, and London gold has risen by 30.84% [3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is attributed to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which have heightened market risk aversion [3][4] - Recent weak economic data from the U.S., including declines in the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs and lower-than-expected CPI data, have contributed to concerns about the U.S. economy, benefiting gold prices [4] Group 3: Central Bank Actions - Global central banks have been increasing their gold reserves, with gold now accounting for approximately 20% of global official reserves, surpassing the euro's 16% [5] - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves to 7.383 million ounces as of May 2025, marking a continuous increase over the past seven months [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term gold prices are expected to remain in a high-level fluctuation pattern, driven by persistent market risk aversion [6][7] - The geopolitical risks and uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies are likely to support gold prices, with central bank purchases providing a solid foundation for future price increases [7]