Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have surged significantly, breaking historical price barriers, which has led to a strong performance in the gold stock sector in China [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On January 28, international gold prices continued to rise, with London gold reaching a peak of $5311.58 per ounce and COMEX gold futures hitting $5306 per ounce [1]. - As of January 28, London gold was priced at $5277.25 per ounce, up 1.83%, while COMEX gold futures were at $5268.4 per ounce, up 3.66%, both gaining over $100 per ounce in a single day [1]. - Since the beginning of the year, international gold prices have increased from around $4300 to nearly $5300, marking a rise of nearly $1000 in less than a month [3]. Group 2: Impact on Gold Stocks - The surge in gold prices has led to a wave of limit-up trading in the A-share gold sector, with over 30 gold concept stocks hitting their daily limit [1]. - Notable stocks such as China Gold, Sichuan Gold, and Yuguang Gold have achieved consecutive limit-up trading days, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - Major gold stock ETFs have also reached historical highs, with the largest gold stock ETF (517520) hitting a new high of 3.095 yuan [1]. Group 3: Jewelry Prices - The prices of gold jewelry have also increased, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Miao reporting prices above 1600 yuan per gram, reflecting a rise of 40-43 yuan in just two days [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach as high as $6400 per ounce this year, with an average price forecast of $5375 per ounce [6]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 gold price forecast from $4900 to $5400 per ounce, citing increasing demand from private investors and central banks [5]. - The People's Bank of China has been steadily increasing its gold reserves, with a reported 7415 million ounces as of December 2025, and has been purchasing gold for 14 consecutive months [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent increase in international gold prices due to a weakening US dollar and rising market risk aversion, with both London and New York gold prices surpassing $5200 per ounce [1]. Group 1 - As of 28th, the London gold spot price reached $5207.07 per ounce, reflecting a 0.50% increase [1]. - The February futures price for gold on the New York Commodity Exchange was reported at $5204.96 per ounce, showing a 2.41% rise [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a rare occurrence where the spot prices of gold and silver in London surpassed the futures prices on the New York COMEX, indicating a potential supply-demand imbalance in the market [1]. Group 1: Price Comparison - As of January 22, the London gold spot price reached $4,832 per ounce, while the COMEX gold futures price was $4,826 per ounce [1]. - The London silver spot price was reported at $94 per ounce, compared to the COMEX silver futures price of $93 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Market Implications - The unusual pricing situation is attributed to the typical premium of COMEX futures due to holding and storage costs, which usually prevents the spot prices from exceeding futures prices [1]. - If the London spot prices continue to exceed the COMEX futures prices, it may lead to cross-market adjustments, impacting arbitrage opportunities and market structure, potentially increasing borrowing rates and short squeeze risks [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a rare market anomaly where the spot prices of gold and silver in London exceed the futures prices on the New York COMEX, indicating a potential supply-demand imbalance and implications for market structure [1] Group 1 - On January 22, the spot prices for gold and silver in London surpassed the COMEX futures prices, which is an unusual occurrence as COMEX typically holds a premium due to costs associated with positions and storage [1] - As of 15:10 Beijing time, the London gold spot price was reported at $4,832 per ounce, while the COMEX gold futures price was $4,826 per ounce; similarly, the London silver spot price was $94 per ounce compared to the COMEX silver futures price of $93 per ounce [1] - If the London spot prices continue to exceed the COMEX futures prices, it may trigger cross-market adjustments, impacting arbitrage opportunities and potentially leading to increased borrowing rates and short squeeze risks in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The London spot prices for gold and silver have surpassed the New York COMEX futures prices, marking a rare market anomaly that typically occurs under extreme supply-demand imbalances [1]. Group 1: Price Comparison - As of 15:10 Beijing time, the London gold spot price was reported at $4,832 per ounce, while the COMEX gold futures price was at $4,826 per ounce [1]. - The London silver spot price was $94 per ounce, compared to the COMEX silver futures price of $93 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Market Implications - The unusual situation of London spot prices exceeding COMEX futures prices could lead to supply-demand imbalances and hinder arbitrage opportunities, potentially triggering cross-market adjustments [1]. - This scenario may result in increased borrowing rates and heightened short squeeze risks in the short term [1].

Core Viewpoint - The decline in crude oil prices and precious metals is attributed to market reactions to geopolitical statements, particularly regarding potential military actions involving the U.S. and Iran [1][4] Crude Oil Market - On January 15, Brent crude oil futures fell by $2.76, a decrease of 4.15% - February WTI crude oil futures dropped by $2.83, reflecting a decline of 4.56% [1][4] Precious Metals Market - On January 16, both London gold and silver spot prices experienced significant drops - As of the report, London silver spot prices had decreased by over 2.5% [1][4] Market Analysis - Jim Reid from Deutsche Bank noted that the market interpreted Trump's comments about the cessation of killings in Iran as a signal that the U.S. might delay potential military actions [1][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the Fed's expected rate cut in December, global debt expansion, central bank gold - buying, and geopolitical risks are likely to support precious metal prices in the medium - to - long - term. However, the high price of platinum may curb downstream demand, and the supply - demand situation of lithium is expected to shift from tight to loose, which may lead to price adjustments for both [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 958.27 yuan/gram, with a change of 7.56 compared to the previous day and - 2.27 compared to the previous week. International gold's COMEX futures active contract closing price was 4227.70 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 10.20 compared to the previous day and 31.60 compared to the previous week [1]. - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 13687.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a change of 263.00 compared to the previous day and 409.00 compared to the previous week. International silver's COMEX futures active contract closing price was 58.80 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.27 compared to the previous day and 5.04 compared to the previous week [1]. 3.2 Important Information - China's gold reserves at the end of November were reported at 74.12 million ounces (about 2305.39 tons), a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons), marking the 13th consecutive month of increase [1]. - The Fed's favored inflation indicator, the September core PCE index, increased by 2.8% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and real personal spending stagnated. US consumer confidence ended a four - month decline, and short - term inflation expectations dropped to the lowest point at the beginning of the year [1]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Logic - **Gold and Silver**: The mixed performance of the US economic and employment data, along with some Fed officials' support for a December rate cut, keeps the probability of a December rate cut above 80%. Fiscal easing policies in multiple countries lead to expectations of debt expansion and fiscal deficit growth, and central banks' continuous gold - buying, along with geopolitical risks, may support precious metal prices in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - **Platinum**: High mining costs, unstable power supply, and aging equipment limit platinum production, while increased demand from traditional fuel and hybrid vehicles due to stricter emission standards and optimistic demand from other industries lead to a tight global platinum supply - demand situation in 2025 - 2026. However, high platinum prices may curb downstream demand [1]. - **Lithium**: Supply is affected by deep - mine mining, power shortages, etc., but increased recycling is expected. Demand from the automotive industry is expected to decline, while demand from other industries has low elasticity. The global lithium supply - demand situation is expected to shift from tight to loose in 2025 - 2026 [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Gold and Silver**: When prices decline, it is advisable to go long. For London gold, pay attention to support levels around 3900 - 4100 and resistance levels around 4300 - 4600; for Shanghai gold, support levels are around 890 - 920 and resistance levels are around 970 - 1000. For London silver, support levels are around 49 - 54 and resistance levels are around 59 - 63; for Shanghai silver, support levels are around 12500 - 15000 and resistance levels are around 14000 - 15000 [1]. - **Platinum**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. Hold "long platinum, short palladium" positions cautiously. For London platinum, pay attention to support levels around 1300 - 1500 and resistance levels around 1800 - 2000; for domestic platinum, support levels are around 335 - 385 and resistance levels are around 465 - 516 [1]. - **Lithium**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. For London lithium, pay attention to support levels around 1190 - 1390 and resistance levels around 1600 - 1800; for domestic lithium, support levels are around 305 - 357 and resistance levels are around 415 - 465 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Global debt inflation expectations support precious metal prices. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is still over 80%, and multiple countries' governments have introduced fiscal easing policies, leading to expectations of debt expansion and fiscal deficit growth. Central banks of many countries are continuously buying gold, and geopolitical risks are likely to support precious metal prices in the long - and medium - term [1] - The global platinum supply - demand outlook for 2025 - 2026 is expected to be tight, but high platinum prices may suppress downstream demand and cause price adjustments [1] - The global lithium supply - demand outlook for 2025 - 2026 may change from tight to loose, and multiple factors may cause lithium price adjustments [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 961.04 yuan/gram, with a change of - 2.24 compared to the previous day and 7.62 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 237,697.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 91,299.00 (in ten - grams). COMEX gold futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 4,237.90 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 10.20 compared to the previous day and 31.60 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 05 was 190,889.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 36,310,675.24 (in troy ounces). London gold spot price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 4,200.60 dollars/ounce [1] - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 13,687.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a change of 263.00 compared to the previous day and 409.00 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 2,703,384.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 687,956.00 (in ten - grams). COMEX silver futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 53.76 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.27 compared to the previous day and 5.04 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 05 was 5,227.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 457,220,650.80 (in troy ounces). London silver spot price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 57.57 dollars/ounce [1] Important Information - China's gold reserves at the end of November were reported at 74.12 million ounces (about 2,305.39 tons), a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons), marking the 13th consecutive month of increase [1] - The Fed's favored inflation indicator, the September core PCE index, increased by 2.8% year - on - year, generally in line with expectations, and real personal spending stagnated. US consumer confidence ended a four - month decline, and short - term inflation expectations dropped to the lowest level at the beginning of the year [1] Trading Strategies - **Gold and Silver**: Buy on price dips. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,900 - 4,100 and the resistance level around 4,300 - 4,600; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 890 - 920 and the resistance level around 970 - 1,000. For London silver, focus on the support level around 49 - 54 and the resistance level around 59 - 63; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 12,500 - 15,000 and the resistance level around 14,000 - 15,000 [1] - **Platinum**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading, and cautiously hold "long platinum, short palladium" long positions. For London platinum price, focus on the support level around 1,300 - 1,500 and the resistance level around 1,800 - 2,000; for domestic platinum price, focus on the support level around 335 - 385 and the resistance level around 465 - 516 [1] - **Lithium**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading. For London lithium price, focus on the support level around 1,190 - 1,390 and the resistance level around 1,600 - 1,800; for domestic lithium price, focus on the support level around 305 - 357 and the resistance level around 415 - 465 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The negative weekly new employment figures from the US ADP private - sector, upcoming US economic data, Japan's economic stimulus plan, the weakening of digital currency prices, global debt expansion, fiscal deficit expectations, and geopolitical risks may support the rebound of precious metal prices in the short - term and provide medium - to long - term support [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 930.22 yuan/gram, with a change of - 28.76 yuan compared to the previous period. The trading volume was - 22,326.00, and the inventory was 90,426.00 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 11,697.00 yuan/ten - gram, with a change of - 273.00 yuan. The trading volume was 623,148.00, and the inventory was 563,671.00 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - **COMEX International Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 4067.40 dollars/ounce, with a change of 22.30 dollars. The trading volume was 231,322.00, and the inventory was 37,224,744.19 (in troy ounces) [1]. - **COMEX International Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 50.54 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.13 dollars. The trading volume was 75,851.00, and the inventory was 465,535,121.46 (in troy ounces) [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending October 18 was 232,000. The average weekly reduction in private - sector employment in the US for the four - week period ending November 1 was 2,500 [1]. - Trump has selected candidates for the Fed chair, and the US Treasury Secretary said the candidates have been narrowed down to five [1]. 3.3 Long - Short Logic - The negative weekly new employment figures from the US ADP private - sector, the uncertainty of future expectations due to upcoming US economic data, Japan's economic stimulus plan, and the weakening of digital currency prices may lead to a rebound in precious metal prices [1]. - Global debt expansion, fiscal deficit expectations, and geopolitical risks will support precious metal prices in the medium - to long - term [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - In the short - term, lightly go long on the main contracts at low prices. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3850 - 3950 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 870 - 890 and the resistance level around 960 - 1000. For London silver, note the support level around 38 - 45 and the resistance level around 52 - 55. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 10,000 - 11,000 and the resistance level around 12,400 - 13,000 [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weak employment performance in the US supports the prices of precious metals. The high number of corporate lay - offs in the US in October has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in December. Along with factors such as the Fed providing liquidity, geopolitical risks, and central banks' gold - buying, precious metal prices may be supported [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: - Shanghai Gold futures' closing price was 917.80 yuan/g, with a change of 5.54 yuan compared to the previous day and - 4.12 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 238,433.00, a decrease of 157,531.00 from the previous day. The inventory remained at 87,816.00 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - COMEX gold futures' closing price was 3941.70 dollars/ounce, with a change of 43.10 dollars compared to the previous day and - 5.60 dollars compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 281,102.00, a decrease of 97,457.00 from the previous week [1]. - London gold spot price was 3968.20 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 20.20 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. - **Silver**: - Shanghai Silver futures' closing price was 11427.00 yuan/ten - gram, with a change of 151.00 yuan compared to the previous day and - 14.00 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 571,201.00, a decrease of 306,143.00 from the previous week [1]. - COMEX silver futures' closing price was 47.85 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 0.02 dollars compared to the previous day and 0.57 dollars compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 74,607.00, a decrease of 24,464.00 from the previous week [1]. - London silver spot price was 47.61 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.51 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. Important Information - The direction of the Fed's December rate cut is unclear. This year's voting members are hesitant due to the government shutdown, and next year's members are more concerned about inflation. The Bank of England kept the interest rate at 4%, and the expectation of a December rate cut is rising [1]. - The AI revolution has accelerated the lay - off wave. In October, the number of Challenger corporate lay - offs in the US increased by 175.3% year - on - year, reaching the highest level in the same period in twenty years. The private data provider Revelio Labs reported a decrease of 9100 in non - farm employment in October [1]. Investment Strategy - Temporarily stay on the sidelines. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3580 - 3860 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 830 - 860 and the resistance level around 950 - 1000. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 42 and the resistance level around 50 - 55; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9400 - 10000 and the resistance level around 11600 - 12400 [1].