最近国际金价的涨势，用 "气势如虹" 来形容一点都不夸张。很多朋友都在问，这金价一路猛涨，啥时候会迎来调整？今天就跟大家聊聊，想判断调整时 机，得重点盯紧10月份的两个时间节点。 先说说这波金价到底涨得多猛。从2025年9月份开始算，也就一个半月的时间，黄金价格累计涨幅直接超了20%。要是单看10月份，涨势更是明显加速，完 全没给人反应的时间。 10月初的时候，纽约黄金期货价格刚站上每盎司4000美元，不少人还在感慨 "这价格创纪录了"，结果不到一周，它又突破了每盎司4100美元，连喘口气的 机会都没有。 10月15号下午3点左右，打开行情软件一看，纽约国际期货黄金价格又双叒叕创新高了 —— 直接站上每盎司4200美元，具体到4211美元，这数字放在以前想 都不敢想。 不光是期货，伦敦黄金现货价格也跟上了节奏，逼近每盎司4200美元。这么算下来，10月才过去不到两周，金价累计涨幅就有10%左右，这加速上涨的劲 头，确实让人眼前一亮。 现在市面上主流的国际投行，像高盛、瑞银、摩根斯坦利、花旗、美洲银行，你去翻它们的研究报告，几乎是清一色地对国际金价继续大幅看涨，没一个唱 反调的。 但我必须提醒朋友们一句，投资市 ...

消息面上，国庆中秋长假期间（10月1日至10月8日），国际金价大幅度上涨。，国际贵金属市场迎来里 程碑式突破，10月7日，COMEX黄金价格一度触及4000美元/盎司整数大关，刷新历史纪录；10月8日， 贵金属延续强势行情，COMEX黄金期货价格盘中再度冲高至4081美元，伦敦黄金现货价格突破4059.3 美元/盎司，双双刷新历史新高。 受十一假期金价大涨再创历史新高带动，今日黄金相关ETF纷纷走强场内ETF方面，截至2025年10月9 日 09:58，上海金ETF(518600)上涨4.43%，实现3连涨。拉长时间看，该基金今年以来，累计上涨 40.79%。 资金流入方面，杠杆资金持续布局中。上海金ETF最新融资买入额达1832.66万元，最新融资余额达 594.03万元。拉长时间看，近4个交易日内，合计"吸金"1.04亿元。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 面对当前黄金涨势，机构纷纷唱多黄金，高盛最新将2026年12月金价预估上调至4900美元/盎司，先前 预估为4300美元。 此外，10月1日美国政府开始停摆，当前美国政府关门僵局仍在持续。虽然特朗普总统表态愿与民 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that as of September 18, 2023, the prices of London spot gold and silver have started to rise, while COMEX gold and silver prices continue to decline following a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut at 2 AM Beijing time on September 18, which led to a simultaneous decline in the prices of gold, silver, and copper futures in both domestic and international markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is highly expected to lower interest rates in September, with a near 100% probability of a 25 basis points cut, influenced by the upcoming non-farm payroll report [2][3][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Expectations - As of September 5, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates is only 0.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis points rate cut is 99.4% [3][6]. - The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in October is just 0.3%, with a cumulative 25 basis points cut probability at 44.5% and a 50 basis points cut at 55.3% [7]. Group 2: Non-Farm Payroll Report Insights - The non-farm payroll report for August is anticipated to show an addition of 75,000 jobs, slightly above July's 73,000, with an expected unemployment rate increase from 4.2% to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [7]. - Average hourly earnings are projected to remain flat month-over-month, with year-over-year growth slowing from 3.9% to 3.7% [7]. - Standard Chartered Bank suggests that to eliminate the possibility of a September rate cut, the non-farm payroll number would need to exceed 130,000, along with upward revisions to previous data [7][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Gold Prices - Gold prices have been rising, with spot prices reaching $3,546.82 per ounce and COMEX futures surpassing $3,600 per ounce, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [10][13]. - The gold market has seen a significant increase, with a weekly rise of approximately 2.9%, marking the largest weekly gain since mid-June [13]. - The current upward momentum in gold prices is attributed to continuous weak economic data, which reinforces optimistic expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [13][14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The Fed Chair Powell's indication of a September interest rate cut due to easing employment supply - demand, along with Trump's pressure and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, may make precious metal prices prone to rising and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly establish long positions when prices decline [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Gold and Silver Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On August 28, 2025, the closing price was 779.86 yuan/gram, up 2.24 yuan from the previous day and 8.23 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 30,942, and open interest was 2,396 [2]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 9,182 yuan/ten - grams on August 28, 2025, with a trading volume of 475,098 and an open interest change of - 25,366 [2]. - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,392.20, with a trading volume of 151,643 and an open interest of 336,177. Inventory was 200,824.48 fine ounces [2]. - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 39.71, trading volume was 54,907, and open interest was 62,636. Inventory was 517,194,775.47 fine ounces [2]. Important Information - **Macroeconomic Data**: The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly rate was revised up to 3.3%, and the PCE price index was 2.5%. Last week, the initial jobless claims decreased to 229,000, and the continued claims dropped to 1,954,000, both lower than expected [2]. - **Central Bank Policies**: - The Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with possible further cuts in the next three to six months [2]. - The European Central Bank may cut interest rates at most once by the end of 2025 [2]. - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in August and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. It may cut interest rates at most once by the end of 2025 [2]. - The Bank of Japan may start to reduce quarterly treasury bond purchases from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026 and has an expectation of raising interest rates by the end of 2025 [2]. Trading Strategy - For London gold, focus on the support level around $3,200 - $3,300 and the resistance level around $3,450 - $3,500. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 760 - 770 and the resistance level around 800 - 810. For London silver, focus on the support level around $34 - $36 and the resistance level around $37 - $40. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8,500 - 8,700 and the resistance level around 9,100 - 9,500 [2].

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high of 6508.23 points, with major U.S. tech stocks mostly rising [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.16%, the Nasdaq index rose by 0.53%, and the S&P 500 index gained 0.32% [2] - Nvidia's stock fell by 0.82% after the company reported second-quarter revenue and profit exceeding market expectations, but third-quarter sales forecasts raised market concerns [2] Group 2 - The offshore RMB appreciated significantly against the U.S. dollar, breaking the 7.12 mark for the first time since early November 2024, with an intraday increase of over 310 basis points [3] - Precious metals prices saw a general increase, with London gold rising by 0.56% and London silver increasing by 1.10% [4] - The NYMEX WTI crude oil price rose slightly by 0.27% [4] Group 3 - The European Commission proposed legislative measures to eliminate certain tariffs on U.S. goods, aiming to stabilize and enhance transatlantic trade and investment relations [5][6] - The proposal includes the cancellation of tariffs on some U.S. industrial products and preferential market access for certain seafood and non-sensitive agricultural products [6] - The U.S. committed to reducing tariffs on EU automobiles and parts from 27.5% to 15% and implementing zero or near-zero tariffs on several products starting September 1 [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The rebound of consumer inflation in the US reduces the expected number of Fed rate cuts. The EU intends to hold a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine to reach a peace agreement. However, due to continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the downside space for precious metal prices is limited. It is recommended that investors wait for price drops to build long positions [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 775.86 yuan/gram, down 2.77 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 23,234, and the open interest decreased by 730 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 9,173 yuan/ten - grams, up 15 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of the spot Shanghai silver T + D was 452,542, and the open interest was 3,447,314, down 63,142 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 3,381.70 dollars/ounce, down 101 dollars from the previous week. The trading volume was 115,486, and the open interest was 328,360, down 3,192 [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 38.02 dollars/ounce, down 0.01 dollars from the previous day. The trading volume was 86,225, and the open interest was 70,294, down 34,959 [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **US Economy**: US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and real retail sales grew for the tenth consecutive month. In August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence unexpectedly declined, and long - and short - term inflation expectations rose. The US Treasury will issue over 1 trillion dollars of mainly short - term Treasury bonds in the third quarter. The use of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase tool is approaching zero. Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the PPI annual rate in July and the core CPI annual rate at the consumer end. The inflation expectations in August are higher than expected, reducing the expected number of Fed rate cuts to September/October [1]. - **European Central Bank**: The ECB paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The eurozone (Germany) CPI annual rate in July was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but flat compared to the previous value. Due to the continued recovery of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone, Germany, and France in July, the ECB may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of England**: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August. It continued to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of UK government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025 and may slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction later. The UK's CPI (core CPI) annual rate in June was 3.6% (3.7%), and the GDP monthly rate was 0.4%, both higher than expected and the previous value. The manufacturing (service) PMI in July was 48.2 (51.2), higher (lower) than expected and the previous value. The Bank of England may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of Japan**: The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start reducing the quarterly Treasury bond purchase scale from 400 billion to 200 billion yen in April 2026. Japan's (Tokyo) core CPI annual rate in June (July) was 3.3% (2.9%), in line with expectations but lower than the previous value. The GDP quarterly rate in the second quarter was 0.3%, higher than expected. With the US Treasury Secretary urging the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, the Bank of Japan still has the possibility of raising rates before the end of 2025, with the earliest possible time being October [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Investors are advised to wait for price drops to build long positions. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,200 - 3,300 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,400 - 3,500 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 760 - 770 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 800 - 810 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 34 - 36 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 37 - 40 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ten - grams and the resistance level around 9,100 - 9,500 yuan/ten - grams [1].

Market Performance - US stock indices showed mixed results on July 22, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.4%, the Nasdaq index falling by 0.39%, and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.06% [4][5] - Nvidia's stock dropped over 2%, resulting in a market value loss of $106.14 billion (approximately ¥761.564 billion) [1][6] Chinese Concept Stocks - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surged by 1.70%, reaching a new high since March 2023 [9][10] - Notable gains in Chinese concept stocks included Daqo New Energy rising over 16%, NIO increasing by more than 10%, and Pony.ai up over 8% [9][10] Commodity Market - Gold prices reached over $3430 per ounce, with the highest recorded at $3433.49 per ounce, marking a significant increase [14][15] - Silver prices also hit a new high since September 2011, reaching $39.306 per ounce [15] - In the domestic market, black commodity futures generally rose, with coking coal futures hitting the daily limit and coking futures increasing by over 5% [22][24] Oil Market - International crude oil prices continued to decline, with WTI and Brent crude futures down by 0.76% and 0.56%, respectively [19][21] - Analysts noted that while demand is not expected to decrease, increased supply may pressure prices further [21]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have initiated a new upward trend, driven by increased market risk aversion and global central bank purchases [1][4][6] Group 1: Gold Price Performance - During the week of June 9 to June 13, international gold prices rose for four consecutive trading days, with COMEX gold futures and London gold spot prices both increasing over 3% [1][3] - As of June 13, COMEX gold futures closed at $3,452.6 per ounce, up 1.47% for the day and 3.18% for the week, while London gold spot prices closed at $3,433.35 per ounce, up 1.40% for the day and 3.74% for the week [3] - Since 2025, COMEX gold futures have increased by 30.73%, and London gold has risen by 30.84% [3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is attributed to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which have heightened market risk aversion [3][4] - Recent weak economic data from the U.S., including declines in the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs and lower-than-expected CPI data, have contributed to concerns about the U.S. economy, benefiting gold prices [4] Group 3: Central Bank Actions - Global central banks have been increasing their gold reserves, with gold now accounting for approximately 20% of global official reserves, surpassing the euro's 16% [5] - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves to 7.383 million ounces as of May 2025, marking a continuous increase over the past seven months [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term gold prices are expected to remain in a high-level fluctuation pattern, driven by persistent market risk aversion [6][7] - The geopolitical risks and uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies are likely to support gold prices, with central bank purchases providing a solid foundation for future price increases [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to concerns about inflation risks, Fed officials are cautious about rate cuts, and there may be a liquidity shock when US Treasuries mature in June - July. However, continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries and persistent geopolitical risks may cause precious metal prices to be weak first and then strong. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on pullbacks [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: On May 29, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 772.28 yuan/gram, down 7.96 yuan from the previous day and 15.78 yuan from last week. The trading volume was 210,848, a decrease of 79,564 from the previous day. The position of the active futures contract was 195,076, a decrease of 25,436 from the previous day. The inventory was 17,247 kilograms, unchanged from the previous day. The closing price of spot Shanghai gold T+D was 762.49 yuan/gram, down 13.23 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 45,904, a decrease of 2,192 from the previous day. The position was 216,784, an increase of 1,732 from the previous day. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was 0.18, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 1.83 [1]. - **Silver**: The closing price of Shanghai silver futures on May 29, 2025, was 8,224 yuan/kilogram, down 1 yuan from the previous day and 39 yuan from last week. The trading volume was 659,531, an increase of 23,931 from the previous day. The position of the active futures contract was 345,595, a decrease of 4,681 from the previous day. The inventory was 10,359,190 grams. The closing price of spot Shanghai silver T+D was 8,202 yuan/kilogram, down 42 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was - 54,128, and the position was 3,389,800, an increase of 26,074 from the previous day. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 14, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 22 [1]. - **International Gold**: The closing price of COMEX gold futures on May 29, 2025, was 3,312.40 US dollars/ounce, up 11.55 US dollars from the previous day and 50.85 US dollars from last week. The trading volume was 225,050, an increase of 3,574 from the previous day. The position was 236,717, an increase of 129,959 from the previous day. The inventory was 38,984,927 troy ounces. The price of London gold spot was 3,312.40 US dollars/ounce, up 11.55 US dollars from the previous day. The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF were 925.61 tons, an increase of 4.59 tons from the previous day. The holdings of iShare Gold ETF were 431.81 tons, a decrease of 2.93 tons from the previous day [1]. - **International Silver**: The closing price of COMEX silver futures on May 29, 2025, was 33.44 US dollars/ounce, up 0.34 US dollars from the previous day and 0.18 US dollars from last week. The trading volume was 49,553, an increase of 8,975 from the previous day. The position was 5,523, an increase of 104,823 from the previous day. The inventory was 498,127,853.72 troy ounces. The price of London silver spot was 33.37 US dollars/ounce, up 0.09 US dollars from the previous day [1]. Important Information - **US**: The US Federal Appellate Court approved the Trump administration's request to temporarily suspend the ruling of a lower - court that prohibited the implementation of several US government tariff executive orders. Trump met with Powell for the first time since 2019, asking for a rate cut, while Powell insisted on policy independence. The scale of US Treasuries maturing in June - July, mainly short - term, is 1.2 trillion and 1.46 trillion US dollars respectively. The concentrated maturity and re - issuance of US Treasuries may cause a liquidity shock. The US SPCI manufacturing and service industry FINI in June were all 52.3, higher than expected and the previous value. The addition of tariffs has raised concerns about a rebound in consumer inflation, delaying the Fed's rate - cut expectation to September/December [1]. - **Europe**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, lowering the deposit mechanism rate to 2.25%. The manufacturing PMIs of the eurozone, Germany, and France in May were 49.4/48.8/49.5, all higher than expected and the previous value. The annual rate of the eurozone consumer price index CPI in May was 2.2%, higher than expected but flat with the previous value. European Central Bank economists predict that the neutral interest rate is 1.75 - 2.25%, so the European Central Bank may cut interest rates in June and cut rates about twice more before the end of 2025 [1]. - **UK**: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in June, continuing to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of UK government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The UK SBCI manufacturing (service) industry PRIT in May was 45.1 (50.2), lower (higher) than expected and the previous value. However, since the annual rates of the consumer price index CPI (core CPI) in April were 3.5% (3.8%), higher than expected and the previous value, the market expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates only once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan**: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.5%, and has been reducing the quarterly bond - buying scale by 400 billion yen since August 2024. The annual rates of the consumer price index CPI in Japan (Tokyo) in April were 3.6% (3.5%), in line with (higher than) expectations and the previous value. The largest Japanese labor union Rengo achieved an average salary increase of 6.46%. Some Bank of Japan officials hope to raise interest rates to 1% in the second - third quarter, so the market expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates around July [1]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on pullbacks. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700 US dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 730 - 750 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 840 - 900 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 28 - 30 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 35 - 36 US dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 7,800 - 8,000 yuan/kilogram and the resistance level around 8,600 - 8,900 yuan/kilogram [1].