1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the Fed's expected rate cut in December, global debt expansion, central bank gold - buying, and geopolitical risks are likely to support precious metal prices in the medium - to - long - term. However, the high price of platinum may curb downstream demand, and the supply - demand situation of lithium is expected to shift from tight to loose, which may lead to price adjustments for both [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 958.27 yuan/gram, with a change of 7.56 compared to the previous day and - 2.27 compared to the previous week. International gold's COMEX futures active contract closing price was 4227.70 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 10.20 compared to the previous day and 31.60 compared to the previous week [1]. - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 13687.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a change of 263.00 compared to the previous day and 409.00 compared to the previous week. International silver's COMEX futures active contract closing price was 58.80 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.27 compared to the previous day and 5.04 compared to the previous week [1]. 3.2 Important Information - China's gold reserves at the end of November were reported at 74.12 million ounces (about 2305.39 tons), a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons), marking the 13th consecutive month of increase [1]. - The Fed's favored inflation indicator, the September core PCE index, increased by 2.8% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and real personal spending stagnated. US consumer confidence ended a four - month decline, and short - term inflation expectations dropped to the lowest point at the beginning of the year [1]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Logic - **Gold and Silver**: The mixed performance of the US economic and employment data, along with some Fed officials' support for a December rate cut, keeps the probability of a December rate cut above 80%. Fiscal easing policies in multiple countries lead to expectations of debt expansion and fiscal deficit growth, and central banks' continuous gold - buying, along with geopolitical risks, may support precious metal prices in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - **Platinum**: High mining costs, unstable power supply, and aging equipment limit platinum production, while increased demand from traditional fuel and hybrid vehicles due to stricter emission standards and optimistic demand from other industries lead to a tight global platinum supply - demand situation in 2025 - 2026. However, high platinum prices may curb downstream demand [1]. - **Lithium**: Supply is affected by deep - mine mining, power shortages, etc., but increased recycling is expected. Demand from the automotive industry is expected to decline, while demand from other industries has low elasticity. The global lithium supply - demand situation is expected to shift from tight to loose in 2025 - 2026 [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Gold and Silver**: When prices decline, it is advisable to go long. For London gold, pay attention to support levels around 3900 - 4100 and resistance levels around 4300 - 4600; for Shanghai gold, support levels are around 890 - 920 and resistance levels are around 970 - 1000. For London silver, support levels are around 49 - 54 and resistance levels are around 59 - 63; for Shanghai silver, support levels are around 12500 - 15000 and resistance levels are around 14000 - 15000 [1]. - **Platinum**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. Hold "long platinum, short palladium" positions cautiously. For London platinum, pay attention to support levels around 1300 - 1500 and resistance levels around 1800 - 2000; for domestic platinum, support levels are around 335 - 385 and resistance levels are around 465 - 516 [1]. - **Lithium**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. For London lithium, pay attention to support levels around 1190 - 1390 and resistance levels around 1600 - 1800; for domestic lithium, support levels are around 305 - 357 and resistance levels are around 415 - 465 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Global debt inflation expectations support precious metal prices. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is still over 80%, and multiple countries' governments have introduced fiscal easing policies, leading to expectations of debt expansion and fiscal deficit growth. Central banks of many countries are continuously buying gold, and geopolitical risks are likely to support precious metal prices in the long - and medium - term [1] - The global platinum supply - demand outlook for 2025 - 2026 is expected to be tight, but high platinum prices may suppress downstream demand and cause price adjustments [1] - The global lithium supply - demand outlook for 2025 - 2026 may change from tight to loose, and multiple factors may cause lithium price adjustments [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 961.04 yuan/gram, with a change of - 2.24 compared to the previous day and 7.62 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 237,697.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 91,299.00 (in ten - grams). COMEX gold futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 4,237.90 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 10.20 compared to the previous day and 31.60 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 05 was 190,889.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 36,310,675.24 (in troy ounces). London gold spot price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 4,200.60 dollars/ounce [1] - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 13,687.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a change of 263.00 compared to the previous day and 409.00 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 2,703,384.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 687,956.00 (in ten - grams). COMEX silver futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 53.76 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.27 compared to the previous day and 5.04 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 05 was 5,227.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 457,220,650.80 (in troy ounces). London silver spot price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 57.57 dollars/ounce [1] Important Information - China's gold reserves at the end of November were reported at 74.12 million ounces (about 2,305.39 tons), a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons), marking the 13th consecutive month of increase [1] - The Fed's favored inflation indicator, the September core PCE index, increased by 2.8% year - on - year, generally in line with expectations, and real personal spending stagnated. US consumer confidence ended a four - month decline, and short - term inflation expectations dropped to the lowest level at the beginning of the year [1] Trading Strategies - **Gold and Silver**: Buy on price dips. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,900 - 4,100 and the resistance level around 4,300 - 4,600; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 890 - 920 and the resistance level around 970 - 1,000. For London silver, focus on the support level around 49 - 54 and the resistance level around 59 - 63; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 12,500 - 15,000 and the resistance level around 14,000 - 15,000 [1] - **Platinum**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading, and cautiously hold "long platinum, short palladium" long positions. For London platinum price, focus on the support level around 1,300 - 1,500 and the resistance level around 1,800 - 2,000; for domestic platinum price, focus on the support level around 335 - 385 and the resistance level around 465 - 516 [1] - **Lithium**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading. For London lithium price, focus on the support level around 1,190 - 1,390 and the resistance level around 1,600 - 1,800; for domestic lithium price, focus on the support level around 305 - 357 and the resistance level around 415 - 465 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The negative weekly new employment figures from the US ADP private - sector, upcoming US economic data, Japan's economic stimulus plan, the weakening of digital currency prices, global debt expansion, fiscal deficit expectations, and geopolitical risks may support the rebound of precious metal prices in the short - term and provide medium - to long - term support [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 930.22 yuan/gram, with a change of - 28.76 yuan compared to the previous period. The trading volume was - 22,326.00, and the inventory was 90,426.00 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 11,697.00 yuan/ten - gram, with a change of - 273.00 yuan. The trading volume was 623,148.00, and the inventory was 563,671.00 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - **COMEX International Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 4067.40 dollars/ounce, with a change of 22.30 dollars. The trading volume was 231,322.00, and the inventory was 37,224,744.19 (in troy ounces) [1]. - **COMEX International Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 50.54 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.13 dollars. The trading volume was 75,851.00, and the inventory was 465,535,121.46 (in troy ounces) [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending October 18 was 232,000. The average weekly reduction in private - sector employment in the US for the four - week period ending November 1 was 2,500 [1]. - Trump has selected candidates for the Fed chair, and the US Treasury Secretary said the candidates have been narrowed down to five [1]. 3.3 Long - Short Logic - The negative weekly new employment figures from the US ADP private - sector, the uncertainty of future expectations due to upcoming US economic data, Japan's economic stimulus plan, and the weakening of digital currency prices may lead to a rebound in precious metal prices [1]. - Global debt expansion, fiscal deficit expectations, and geopolitical risks will support precious metal prices in the medium - to long - term [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - In the short - term, lightly go long on the main contracts at low prices. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3850 - 3950 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 870 - 890 and the resistance level around 960 - 1000. For London silver, note the support level around 38 - 45 and the resistance level around 52 - 55. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 10,000 - 11,000 and the resistance level around 12,400 - 13,000 [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weak employment performance in the US supports the prices of precious metals. The high number of corporate lay - offs in the US in October has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in December. Along with factors such as the Fed providing liquidity, geopolitical risks, and central banks' gold - buying, precious metal prices may be supported [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: - Shanghai Gold futures' closing price was 917.80 yuan/g, with a change of 5.54 yuan compared to the previous day and - 4.12 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 238,433.00, a decrease of 157,531.00 from the previous day. The inventory remained at 87,816.00 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - COMEX gold futures' closing price was 3941.70 dollars/ounce, with a change of 43.10 dollars compared to the previous day and - 5.60 dollars compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 281,102.00, a decrease of 97,457.00 from the previous week [1]. - London gold spot price was 3968.20 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 20.20 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. - **Silver**: - Shanghai Silver futures' closing price was 11427.00 yuan/ten - gram, with a change of 151.00 yuan compared to the previous day and - 14.00 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 571,201.00, a decrease of 306,143.00 from the previous week [1]. - COMEX silver futures' closing price was 47.85 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 0.02 dollars compared to the previous day and 0.57 dollars compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 74,607.00, a decrease of 24,464.00 from the previous week [1]. - London silver spot price was 47.61 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.51 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. Important Information - The direction of the Fed's December rate cut is unclear. This year's voting members are hesitant due to the government shutdown, and next year's members are more concerned about inflation. The Bank of England kept the interest rate at 4%, and the expectation of a December rate cut is rising [1]. - The AI revolution has accelerated the lay - off wave. In October, the number of Challenger corporate lay - offs in the US increased by 175.3% year - on - year, reaching the highest level in the same period in twenty years. The private data provider Revelio Labs reported a decrease of 9100 in non - farm employment in October [1]. Investment Strategy - Temporarily stay on the sidelines. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3580 - 3860 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 830 - 860 and the resistance level around 950 - 1000. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 42 and the resistance level around 50 - 55; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9400 - 10000 and the resistance level around 11600 - 12400 [1].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has experienced significant declines, dropping below key thresholds of $4000 and $3900 per ounce, with the lowest point reaching $3886 per ounce on October 28, 2023 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The recent drop in gold prices has led to increased buying activity in gold ETFs, with a net inflow exceeding 2 billion yuan in the past week alone [3][5]. - Despite the decline in gold prices, domestic gold ETFs have maintained a net inflow, with a total increase of approximately 8.65 million shares from October 20 to 28, 2023 [5][6]. - The total net inflow for gold ETFs over the past month has reached around 39.8 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest despite price volatility [5][6]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Analysts suggest that many investors view the current price adjustment as an opportunity to "buy the dip," indicating a long-term bullish sentiment towards gold [7]. - The ongoing trends of "de-dollarization," central bank gold purchases, and inflation expectations due to U.S. debt expansion are expected to provide medium to long-term support for gold prices [7]. - The psychological impact of key price levels (e.g., $3000, $3500, $4000 per ounce) is significant, as these levels serve as technical and psychological anchors for investors [7]. Group 3: Market Analysis - The World Gold Council reported record inflows into physical gold ETFs, with a total of $26 billion in the third quarter of 2023, pushing total assets under management to a historic high of $472 billion [8]. - Current high implied volatility in gold options suggests a crowded market, prompting caution among investors regarding short-term risks [8]. - Research from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that gold's high volatility has negatively impacted its risk-reward ratio, recommending that investors wait for prices to stabilize around $3800 to $3900 per ounce before making new investments [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international gold prices has been significant, with a notable increase of over 20% since mid-September 2025, and a 10% rise in just the first two weeks of October 2025, prompting discussions about potential adjustments in the near future [1][3][11]. Group 1: Price Movement - Gold prices reached a record high of $4,211 per ounce on October 15, 2025, following a rapid increase from $4,000 to $4,100 within a week [3]. - The London spot gold price also approached $4,200 per ounce, reflecting a strong upward trend in the market [3]. - The overall increase in gold prices from early September to mid-October 2025 is described as one of the most rapid in recent decades, with prices nearly doubling from around $2,000 per ounce in early 2024 to over $4,000 [11]. Group 2: Key Time Points - The first critical time point to monitor is the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut announcement between October 17 and 20, 2025, which could lead to a price adjustment if the anticipated news is realized [7]. - The second key time point is around October 30, 2025, when the APEC meeting will take place, featuring a face-to-face meeting between the U.S. and Chinese leaders. Positive outcomes from this meeting could lead to a decrease in gold's safe-haven demand and potential price adjustments [9].

消息面上，国庆中秋长假期间（10月1日至10月8日），国际金价大幅度上涨。，国际贵金属市场迎来里 程碑式突破，10月7日，COMEX黄金价格一度触及4000美元/盎司整数大关，刷新历史纪录；10月8日， 贵金属延续强势行情，COMEX黄金期货价格盘中再度冲高至4081美元，伦敦黄金现货价格突破4059.3 美元/盎司，双双刷新历史新高。 受十一假期金价大涨再创历史新高带动，今日黄金相关ETF纷纷走强场内ETF方面，截至2025年10月9 日 09:58，上海金ETF(518600)上涨4.43%，实现3连涨。拉长时间看，该基金今年以来，累计上涨 40.79%。 资金流入方面，杠杆资金持续布局中。上海金ETF最新融资买入额达1832.66万元，最新融资余额达 594.03万元。拉长时间看，近4个交易日内，合计"吸金"1.04亿元。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 面对当前黄金涨势，机构纷纷唱多黄金，高盛最新将2026年12月金价预估上调至4900美元/盎司，先前 预估为4300美元。 此外，10月1日美国政府开始停摆，当前美国政府关门僵局仍在持续。虽然特朗普总统表态愿与民 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that as of September 18, 2023, the prices of London spot gold and silver have started to rise, while COMEX gold and silver prices continue to decline following a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut at 2 AM Beijing time on September 18, which led to a simultaneous decline in the prices of gold, silver, and copper futures in both domestic and international markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is highly expected to lower interest rates in September, with a near 100% probability of a 25 basis points cut, influenced by the upcoming non-farm payroll report [2][3][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Expectations - As of September 5, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates is only 0.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis points rate cut is 99.4% [3][6]. - The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in October is just 0.3%, with a cumulative 25 basis points cut probability at 44.5% and a 50 basis points cut at 55.3% [7]. Group 2: Non-Farm Payroll Report Insights - The non-farm payroll report for August is anticipated to show an addition of 75,000 jobs, slightly above July's 73,000, with an expected unemployment rate increase from 4.2% to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [7]. - Average hourly earnings are projected to remain flat month-over-month, with year-over-year growth slowing from 3.9% to 3.7% [7]. - Standard Chartered Bank suggests that to eliminate the possibility of a September rate cut, the non-farm payroll number would need to exceed 130,000, along with upward revisions to previous data [7][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Gold Prices - Gold prices have been rising, with spot prices reaching $3,546.82 per ounce and COMEX futures surpassing $3,600 per ounce, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [10][13]. - The gold market has seen a significant increase, with a weekly rise of approximately 2.9%, marking the largest weekly gain since mid-June [13]. - The current upward momentum in gold prices is attributed to continuous weak economic data, which reinforces optimistic expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [13][14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The Fed Chair Powell's indication of a September interest rate cut due to easing employment supply - demand, along with Trump's pressure and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, may make precious metal prices prone to rising and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly establish long positions when prices decline [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Gold and Silver Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On August 28, 2025, the closing price was 779.86 yuan/gram, up 2.24 yuan from the previous day and 8.23 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 30,942, and open interest was 2,396 [2]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 9,182 yuan/ten - grams on August 28, 2025, with a trading volume of 475,098 and an open interest change of - 25,366 [2]. - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,392.20, with a trading volume of 151,643 and an open interest of 336,177. Inventory was 200,824.48 fine ounces [2]. - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 39.71, trading volume was 54,907, and open interest was 62,636. Inventory was 517,194,775.47 fine ounces [2]. Important Information - **Macroeconomic Data**: The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly rate was revised up to 3.3%, and the PCE price index was 2.5%. Last week, the initial jobless claims decreased to 229,000, and the continued claims dropped to 1,954,000, both lower than expected [2]. - **Central Bank Policies**: - The Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with possible further cuts in the next three to six months [2]. - The European Central Bank may cut interest rates at most once by the end of 2025 [2]. - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in August and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. It may cut interest rates at most once by the end of 2025 [2]. - The Bank of Japan may start to reduce quarterly treasury bond purchases from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026 and has an expectation of raising interest rates by the end of 2025 [2]. Trading Strategy - For London gold, focus on the support level around $3,200 - $3,300 and the resistance level around $3,450 - $3,500. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 760 - 770 and the resistance level around 800 - 810. For London silver, focus on the support level around $34 - $36 and the resistance level around $37 - $40. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8,500 - 8,700 and the resistance level around 9,100 - 9,500 [2].