中国基金报记者 张舟 美联储 9 月 18 日议息会议进入倒计时，从最新预测结果看， 9 月降息几乎已成共识。今晚 8 点半 ，美国劳工统计局将公布 8 月非农就业报告，这或是 " 敲定 " 降息的关键数据，全 球市场正屏息等待结果。 【导读】美联储 9 月降息概率逼近 100%，8 月非农将于今晚 8 点半 公布 降息预期 " 拉满 " 美联储 9 月降息概率达 99.4% 9 月 5 日， CME 美联储观察最新数据显示，美联储 9 月维持利率不变的概率仅余 0.6% ， 而降息 25 个基点的概率高达 99.4% ，逼近 100% ，市场对 9 月的降息预期已基本 " 拉满 " 。 80% 70% 60% Probability 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0.6% 0% 400-425 425-450 Target Rate (in bps) | TARGET RATE (BPS) | PROBABILITY(%) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | NOW | 1 DAY | 1 WEEK | 1 MONTH | | | | 3 9月 ...

贵金属日评20250829: 初请失业金人数低于预期前值,关注7月个人消费支出价格指数PCE 确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已,力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不拘成任何投资建议。投 资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果、本公司赠不负责。本报告版权仅为本公司所有、未经书面许可、任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如 引用、刊发，需注明出处为宏源期货，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源：SMM和WIND。风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎! 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-08-28 | 2025-08-27 | 2025-08-22 | 收盘价 | 783. 22 | 781.16 | 773. 40 | 2. 06 | 9. 82 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

当地时间8月28日，标普500指数盘中最高涨至6508.23点，再创历史新高。美股大型科技股多数上涨。 美元指数继续下跌，离岸人民币对美元大幅拉升，盘中一度突破7.12关口，日内涨超310个基点。贵金属价格普遍上涨，伦敦白银现货、COMEX白银期货 均涨超1%。国际原油期货价格小幅上涨。 标普500指数创历史新高 美股三大指数小幅收涨。数据显示，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数涨0.16%，纳斯达克指数涨0.53%，标普500指数涨0.32%，盘中最高涨至6508.23点，再创 历史新高。 美国科技七巨头指数涨0.47%。个股方面，英伟达跌0.82%，盘中一度跌超2%。消息面上，英伟达发布财报，第二季度营业收入和利润均超出市场预期， 但公司三季度的销售预测引发市场疑虑。 经济数据方面，北京时间28日晚间，美国劳工部发布报告显示，上周首次申领失业救济人数22.9万人，预期23万人。 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3415.795 | 39.019 | 3476.9 | | +18.865 +0.56% +0.426 +1.10% +28.3 +0.82% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The rebound of consumer inflation in the US reduces the expected number of Fed rate cuts. The EU intends to hold a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine to reach a peace agreement. However, due to continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the downside space for precious metal prices is limited. It is recommended that investors wait for price drops to build long positions [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 775.86 yuan/gram, down 2.77 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 23,234, and the open interest decreased by 730 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 9,173 yuan/ten - grams, up 15 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of the spot Shanghai silver T + D was 452,542, and the open interest was 3,447,314, down 63,142 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 3,381.70 dollars/ounce, down 101 dollars from the previous week. The trading volume was 115,486, and the open interest was 328,360, down 3,192 [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 38.02 dollars/ounce, down 0.01 dollars from the previous day. The trading volume was 86,225, and the open interest was 70,294, down 34,959 [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **US Economy**: US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and real retail sales grew for the tenth consecutive month. In August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence unexpectedly declined, and long - and short - term inflation expectations rose. The US Treasury will issue over 1 trillion dollars of mainly short - term Treasury bonds in the third quarter. The use of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase tool is approaching zero. Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the PPI annual rate in July and the core CPI annual rate at the consumer end. The inflation expectations in August are higher than expected, reducing the expected number of Fed rate cuts to September/October [1]. - **European Central Bank**: The ECB paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The eurozone (Germany) CPI annual rate in July was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but flat compared to the previous value. Due to the continued recovery of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone, Germany, and France in July, the ECB may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of England**: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August. It continued to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of UK government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025 and may slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction later. The UK's CPI (core CPI) annual rate in June was 3.6% (3.7%), and the GDP monthly rate was 0.4%, both higher than expected and the previous value. The manufacturing (service) PMI in July was 48.2 (51.2), higher (lower) than expected and the previous value. The Bank of England may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of Japan**: The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start reducing the quarterly Treasury bond purchase scale from 400 billion to 200 billion yen in April 2026. Japan's (Tokyo) core CPI annual rate in June (July) was 3.3% (2.9%), in line with expectations but lower than the previous value. The GDP quarterly rate in the second quarter was 0.3%, higher than expected. With the US Treasury Secretary urging the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, the Bank of Japan still has the possibility of raising rates before the end of 2025, with the earliest possible time being October [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Investors are advised to wait for price drops to build long positions. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,200 - 3,300 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,400 - 3,500 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 760 - 770 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 800 - 810 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 34 - 36 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 37 - 40 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ten - grams and the resistance level around 9,100 - 9,500 yuan/ten - grams [1].

Market Performance - US stock indices showed mixed results on July 22, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.4%, the Nasdaq index falling by 0.39%, and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.06% [4][5] - Nvidia's stock dropped over 2%, resulting in a market value loss of $106.14 billion (approximately ¥761.564 billion) [1][6] Chinese Concept Stocks - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surged by 1.70%, reaching a new high since March 2023 [9][10] - Notable gains in Chinese concept stocks included Daqo New Energy rising over 16%, NIO increasing by more than 10%, and Pony.ai up over 8% [9][10] Commodity Market - Gold prices reached over $3430 per ounce, with the highest recorded at $3433.49 per ounce, marking a significant increase [14][15] - Silver prices also hit a new high since September 2011, reaching $39.306 per ounce [15] - In the domestic market, black commodity futures generally rose, with coking coal futures hitting the daily limit and coking futures increasing by over 5% [22][24] Oil Market - International crude oil prices continued to decline, with WTI and Brent crude futures down by 0.76% and 0.56%, respectively [19][21] - Analysts noted that while demand is not expected to decrease, increased supply may pressure prices further [21]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have initiated a new upward trend, driven by increased market risk aversion and global central bank purchases [1][4][6] Group 1: Gold Price Performance - During the week of June 9 to June 13, international gold prices rose for four consecutive trading days, with COMEX gold futures and London gold spot prices both increasing over 3% [1][3] - As of June 13, COMEX gold futures closed at $3,452.6 per ounce, up 1.47% for the day and 3.18% for the week, while London gold spot prices closed at $3,433.35 per ounce, up 1.40% for the day and 3.74% for the week [3] - Since 2025, COMEX gold futures have increased by 30.73%, and London gold has risen by 30.84% [3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is attributed to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which have heightened market risk aversion [3][4] - Recent weak economic data from the U.S., including declines in the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs and lower-than-expected CPI data, have contributed to concerns about the U.S. economy, benefiting gold prices [4] Group 3: Central Bank Actions - Global central banks have been increasing their gold reserves, with gold now accounting for approximately 20% of global official reserves, surpassing the euro's 16% [5] - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves to 7.383 million ounces as of May 2025, marking a continuous increase over the past seven months [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term gold prices are expected to remain in a high-level fluctuation pattern, driven by persistent market risk aversion [6][7] - The geopolitical risks and uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies are likely to support gold prices, with central bank purchases providing a solid foundation for future price increases [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to concerns about inflation risks, Fed officials are cautious about rate cuts, and there may be a liquidity shock when US Treasuries mature in June - July. However, continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries and persistent geopolitical risks may cause precious metal prices to be weak first and then strong. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on pullbacks [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: On May 29, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 772.28 yuan/gram, down 7.96 yuan from the previous day and 15.78 yuan from last week. The trading volume was 210,848, a decrease of 79,564 from the previous day. The position of the active futures contract was 195,076, a decrease of 25,436 from the previous day. The inventory was 17,247 kilograms, unchanged from the previous day. The closing price of spot Shanghai gold T+D was 762.49 yuan/gram, down 13.23 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 45,904, a decrease of 2,192 from the previous day. The position was 216,784, an increase of 1,732 from the previous day. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was 0.18, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 1.83 [1]. - **Silver**: The closing price of Shanghai silver futures on May 29, 2025, was 8,224 yuan/kilogram, down 1 yuan from the previous day and 39 yuan from last week. The trading volume was 659,531, an increase of 23,931 from the previous day. The position of the active futures contract was 345,595, a decrease of 4,681 from the previous day. The inventory was 10,359,190 grams. The closing price of spot Shanghai silver T+D was 8,202 yuan/kilogram, down 42 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was - 54,128, and the position was 3,389,800, an increase of 26,074 from the previous day. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 14, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 22 [1]. - **International Gold**: The closing price of COMEX gold futures on May 29, 2025, was 3,312.40 US dollars/ounce, up 11.55 US dollars from the previous day and 50.85 US dollars from last week. The trading volume was 225,050, an increase of 3,574 from the previous day. The position was 236,717, an increase of 129,959 from the previous day. The inventory was 38,984,927 troy ounces. The price of London gold spot was 3,312.40 US dollars/ounce, up 11.55 US dollars from the previous day. The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF were 925.61 tons, an increase of 4.59 tons from the previous day. The holdings of iShare Gold ETF were 431.81 tons, a decrease of 2.93 tons from the previous day [1]. - **International Silver**: The closing price of COMEX silver futures on May 29, 2025, was 33.44 US dollars/ounce, up 0.34 US dollars from the previous day and 0.18 US dollars from last week. The trading volume was 49,553, an increase of 8,975 from the previous day. The position was 5,523, an increase of 104,823 from the previous day. The inventory was 498,127,853.72 troy ounces. The price of London silver spot was 33.37 US dollars/ounce, up 0.09 US dollars from the previous day [1]. Important Information - **US**: The US Federal Appellate Court approved the Trump administration's request to temporarily suspend the ruling of a lower - court that prohibited the implementation of several US government tariff executive orders. Trump met with Powell for the first time since 2019, asking for a rate cut, while Powell insisted on policy independence. The scale of US Treasuries maturing in June - July, mainly short - term, is 1.2 trillion and 1.46 trillion US dollars respectively. The concentrated maturity and re - issuance of US Treasuries may cause a liquidity shock. The US SPCI manufacturing and service industry FINI in June were all 52.3, higher than expected and the previous value. The addition of tariffs has raised concerns about a rebound in consumer inflation, delaying the Fed's rate - cut expectation to September/December [1]. - **Europe**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, lowering the deposit mechanism rate to 2.25%. The manufacturing PMIs of the eurozone, Germany, and France in May were 49.4/48.8/49.5, all higher than expected and the previous value. The annual rate of the eurozone consumer price index CPI in May was 2.2%, higher than expected but flat with the previous value. European Central Bank economists predict that the neutral interest rate is 1.75 - 2.25%, so the European Central Bank may cut interest rates in June and cut rates about twice more before the end of 2025 [1]. - **UK**: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in June, continuing to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of UK government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The UK SBCI manufacturing (service) industry PRIT in May was 45.1 (50.2), lower (higher) than expected and the previous value. However, since the annual rates of the consumer price index CPI (core CPI) in April were 3.5% (3.8%), higher than expected and the previous value, the market expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates only once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan**: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.5%, and has been reducing the quarterly bond - buying scale by 400 billion yen since August 2024. The annual rates of the consumer price index CPI in Japan (Tokyo) in April were 3.6% (3.5%), in line with (higher than) expectations and the previous value. The largest Japanese labor union Rengo achieved an average salary increase of 6.46%. Some Bank of Japan officials hope to raise interest rates to 1% in the second - third quarter, so the market expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates around July [1]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on pullbacks. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700 US dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 730 - 750 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 840 - 900 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 28 - 30 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 35 - 36 US dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 7,800 - 8,000 yuan/kilogram and the resistance level around 8,600 - 8,900 yuan/kilogram [1].