2025年08月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：供需紧平衡，趋势偏强，正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：三房巷新装置投产，正套 | 2 | | MEG：趋势偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：短期偏强，中期仍在区间震荡 | 6 | | 沥青：裂解续弱 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期偏强震荡 | 11 | | PP：短线反弹，中期震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：短期回调，关注近月仓单压力 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡有支撑 | 18 | | 尿素：弱势运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期偏强，中期偏空 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：进口成本存支撑，但供需缺乏明显改善 | 24 | | 丙烯：供需紧平衡，价格偏强整理 | 24 | | PVC：趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油：夜盘高位震荡，短期强势延续 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油：近月合约持续上涨，外盘现货高低硫价差暂时企稳 | 28 | | 集运指数 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the supply - demand weakness of LLDPE persists, and L2509 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices. The daily K - line should pay attention to the support around 7160 and the pressure around 7290 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract is 7214 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the 1 - month contract is 7225 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the 5 - month contract is 7200 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the 9 - month contract is 7214 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The trading volume is 204,281 lots, down 103,204 lots, and the open interest is 436,856 lots, up 2,991 lots. The spread between the 1 - month and 5 - month contracts is 25 yuan, unchanged. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 358,600 lots, up 515 lots; the short position is 402,176 lots, down 5,715 lots; the net long position is - 43,576 lots, up 6,230 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7206.09 yuan/ton, down 23.91 yuan; in East China is 7319.02 yuan/ton, down 13.17 yuan. The basis is - 7.91 yuan, down 16.91 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 62.88 US dollars/barrel, down 1.48 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 583.75 US dollars/ton, down 13.25 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia is 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate is 77.79%, down 1.67 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PE packaging film is 48.07%, down 0.37 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes is 28%, unchanged; the operating rate of PE agricultural film is 12.63%, up 0.54 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 11.71%, down 1.17 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 12.54%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 12.01%, down 1 percentage point; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 12.02%, down 0.98 percentage points [2] Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, China's polyethylene output was 605,900 tons, a 2.10% decrease from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 77.79%, a 1.67 - percentage - point decrease. The average operating rate of polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.18% from the previous period. As of July 16th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 529,300 tons, a 7.34% increase; as of July 11th, the social sample warehouse inventory was 536,600 tons, a 3.68% increase [2] Outlook - In July, there are many PE maintenance devices. This week, the devices of Sinopec Hubei and Jilin Petrochemical are shut down for maintenance, and the device of Shanghai Petrochemical is planned to restart. It is expected that the output and capacity utilization rate will decline. New devices of ExxonMobil and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical are expected to be put into production this month, which may increase the industry supply pressure in the long - term. The downstream off - season continues, the terminal stocking willingness is low, and the downstream operating rate is expected to maintain a narrow downward trend. Recently, international oil prices have fallen. Overall, the short - term supply - demand weakness of LLDPE continues [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and trading suggestions for each commodity [2] - Different commodities are expected to have different market trends, such as some in a state of shock, some with upward or downward pressure, and some with specific trading strategies recommended Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: PTA new device is about to be put into production, but PX supply - demand remains tight. Suggest monthly spread positive arbitrage and short PXN at high levels [4][7][12] - **PTA**: Stop profit on long PX short PTA, and conduct monthly spread reverse arbitrage. Supply will be marginally loose from mid - July, and it is recommended to focus on monthly spread reverse arbitrage [4][12] - **MEG**: It is a single - sided shock market. Suggest basis and monthly spread positive arbitrage, and do not chase short on a single - sided valuation. Import is expected to be tight in August, and it is recommended to go long on a single - sided basis at low levels [4][13][14] Rubber - Rubber is expected to run in a shock state. The trading volume and open interest of the main contract have changed slightly, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased slightly [15][16][17] Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is under shock pressure. The cost side is weakening, and the supply increment is greater than the demand increment. The NR - BR spread may support the price [19][20][21] Asphalt - Asphalt is expected to rise in a shock state with a downward valuation adjustment. The weekly output has increased, and both factory and social inventories have accumulated [22][34] LLDPE - LLDPE is expected to be in a short - term weak shock state. The macro - situation has led to a premium retracement, and the supply pressure is increasing while the demand is weak [35][36] PP - PP spot prices are falling, and trading is dull. Futures are oscillating downward, and downstream demand is weak [40][41] Caustic Soda - The price of caustic soda futures has rebounded due to the sharp decline in liquid chlorine prices. The short - term spot has rebounded, but the supply pressure is still large, and the cost has increased [43][45] Pulp - Pulp is expected to run in a shock state. The spot price is stable, the supply pressure is not relieved, and the demand is weak [49][51][52] Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The market shows a trend of mixed rise and fall, and the downstream demand is not strong [55][56] Methanol - Methanol is expected to run in a short - term shock state. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has also weakened. It is expected to oscillate within a narrow range [59][61] Urea - Urea is expected to run in a shock state. The domestic market is supported by domestic demand and export, and the inventory is in a shock pattern. There is a multi - empty game in the short term [63][64][66] Styrene - Styrene is expected to be in a short - term shock state. Pay attention to the listing of pure benzene futures, and different trading strategies are recommended [67][71][72] Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The market is in a low - level shock state, with supply at a high level and weak demand [74][76] LPG - LPG is expected to have a short - term wide - range shock. The PDH and other开工 rates have changed, and there are many device maintenance plans [79][81][87] PVC - PVC is in a short - term shock state with pressure in the later stage. The supply reduction drive is insufficient, and the high - output and high - inventory structure is difficult to change [91][92] Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night session followed the rise in crude oil prices, and short - term fluctuations may increase again [95] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The strong trend continues, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market oscillates at a high level [95] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC2508 contract is expected to oscillate and consolidate, and it is recommended to hold a light short position in the EC2510 contract [97]

2025年07月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：供需紧平衡，逢低正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：单边震荡市 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡运行格局延续 | 6 | | 沥青：暂时震荡，关注地缘 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期偏强震荡 | 10 | | PP：现货震荡，成交平淡 | 12 | | 烧碱：关注液氯的影响 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：窄幅震荡 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 25 | | PVC：短期偏强，后期仍有压力 | 28 | | 燃料油：短期弱势调整为主，盘面波动低位 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘偏强，外盘现货高低硫价差继续上行 | 30 | | 集运指数（欧线）：08震荡整理；10空单轻仓持有 | 31 | | 短纤：短期震荡 | 35 | | 瓶片：短期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - L2509 showed a slight oscillation, closing at 7,284 yuan/ton. On the supply side, this week's PE production increased by 3.95% week-on-week to 618,900 tons. On the demand side, the average operating rate of downstream PE products last week decreased by 0.05% week-on-week, continuing the seasonal decline. In terms of inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 2.19% week-on-week to 438,400 tons, while the social inventory increased by 9.09% week-on-week to 507,100 tons, with no significant overall inventory pressure. In July, there are many PE maintenance devices, but the previous new capacity put into operation partially offsets the maintenance losses, and the current production is still at a high level. The off-season for downstream continues, and the terminal's willingness to stock up is low. The downstream operating rate is expected to maintain a narrow downward trend. In terms of cost, the US and Vietnam reached a trade agreement, and Iran suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, leading to a recent increase in international oil prices. In the short term, both supply and demand of LLDPE are weak, and L2509 is expected to show an oscillating trend. Pay attention to the support around 7,200 and the resistance around 7,340 on the daily K-line [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 7,284 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 7,262 yuan/ton, unchanged; the closing price of the May contract was 7,248 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 7,284 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The trading volume was 243,442 lots, down 26,719 lots; the open interest was 444,132 lots, up 839 lots. The spread between the January and May contracts was 14 yuan, down 5 yuan. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 359,447 lots, down 488 lots; the short positions were 399,519 lots, up 2,868 lots; the net long positions were -40,072 lots, down 3,356 lots [2] 现货市场 - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,296.52 yuan/ton, up 26.09 yuan; the average price in East China was 7,398.54 yuan/ton, up 0.24 yuan. The basis was 12.52 yuan, up 30.09 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 62.02 US dollars per barrel, up 0.04 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 572.25 US dollars per ton, up 1.5 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 861 US dollars per ton, unchanged; the CFR mid - price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 851 US dollars per ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants was 76.44%, down 2.25 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 47.96%, down 1.19 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 28.33%, down 0.34 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 12.35%, up 0.23 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 14.38%, down 0.04 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.5%, down 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 10.73%, down 0.27 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 10.72%, down 0.28 percentage points [2] Industry News - The US government revoked a restrictive licensing requirement imposed on two major ethane producers and exporters, Enterprise Products Partners and Energy Transfer, a few weeks ago. The 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized the in - depth promotion of the construction of a unified national market, the governance of low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations, the guidance of enterprises to improve product quality, and the promotion of the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. The US and Vietnam reached a trade agreement, with the US imposing a 20% tariff on imported Vietnamese goods and Vietnam "fully opening its market" to the US [2]

2025年05月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：多PX空PTA | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：基差持续上涨，多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：持续去库，但盘面上方空间有限，多PTA空MEG | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏弱 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：弱势运行 | 7 | | 沥青：华南降价，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | LLDPE：偏弱运行 | 12 | | PP：价格小跌，成交一般 | 14 | | 烧碱：暂时是震荡市 | 15 | | 纸浆：震荡偏强 | 17 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 19 | | 甲醇：短期震荡，中期趋势仍偏弱 | 20 | | 尿素：内需偏弱，出口支撑，震荡运行 | 22 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 24 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 26 | | LPG：民用气走弱，近端价格承压 | 27 | | PVC：偏弱运行 | 30 | | 燃料油：夜盘大幅回跌，短期重回震荡走势 | 32 | | 低硫燃料油：跟随原油下探，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收窄 | 32 | | 集运指数（欧线）：近月高位震荡，10-12反套持 ...

2025年05月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：多PX空PTA | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：长丝检修落地，多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：单边逢高空，多PTA空MEG | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏弱 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：弱势运行 | 6 | | 沥青：区间震荡，出货转淡 | 8 | | LLDPE：偏弱运行 | 10 | | PP：价格小跌，成交一般 | 12 | | 烧碱：后期仍有压力 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：弱势运行 | 18 | | 尿素：内需偏弱，出口支撑，震荡运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG：民用气继续企稳，盘面支撑走强 | 25 | | PVC：偏弱运行 | 28 | | 燃料油：日盘跌势延续，短期偏弱震荡 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘大幅下跌，外盘现货高低硫价差走强 | 30 | | 集运指数（欧线）：高位震荡，10-12反套持有 | 31 | | 短纤：短期震荡市 | ...

王亦路 从业资格证号：F3089928 投资咨询证号： Z0018740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyl@qh168.com.cn 联系人： 基本面短期支撑，价格震荡偏弱 东海甲醇聚烯烃周度策略 东海期货研究所能化策略组 2025-5-12 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 分析师： 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8618 邮箱：fengbf@qh168.com.cn 甲醇：进口到港增加 | 国产供应 | 国内甲醇装置产能利用率89.97%，环比+4.9%；装置多数恢复，供应充足。西北能源30， | | --- | --- | | | 内蒙宝丰一期装置计划重启，宁夏宝丰二期、内蒙古九鼎10装置检修，下周甲醇产量大幅减 | | | 少。 | | 进口 | 进口到港增量明显，4月25日-5月8日（两周）总进口货量共50.22万吨，（5月9日-5月 | | | 15日）到港预计22.4万吨。 | | 需求 | 甲醇制烯烃行业产能利用率82.48%，环比-1.03%；宁夏宝丰二期、中煤榆林烯烃装置停 ...

节前补库支撑，价格震荡为主 东海甲醇聚烯烃周度策略 东海期货研究所能化策略组 2025-4-28 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 分析师： 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8618 邮箱：fengbf@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F3089928 投资咨询证号： Z0018740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyl@qh168.com.cn 联系人： 甲醇：意外检修支撑价格 | 国产供应 | 国内甲醇装置产能利用率85.06%，环比-2.60%；内蒙古新奥60装置恢复，久泰托县200、 内蒙古宝丰一期280、中石化长城60装置计划重启，下周甲醇产量预期增加。 | | --- | --- | | 进口 | 国际甲醇装置开工79.37%，环比上周增加0.1个百分点，同比去年也略高3个百分点。4月 18日至4月24日，总进口量在14.3万吨，下周期到港预计在18.95万吨。 | | 需求 | 国内煤（经甲醇）制烯烃行业开工略有增加，目前开工在79.45%，环比增加1.11个百分 点。 ...

盘面驱动有限，价格震荡 东海甲醇聚烯烃周度策略 东海期货研究所能化策略组 2025-4-21 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 分析师： 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8618 邮箱：fengbf@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F3089928 投资咨询证号： Z0018740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyl@qh168.com.cn 联系人： 甲醇：意外检修支撑价格 | 国产供应 | 国内甲醇装置产能利用率87.37%，环比-0.56%；久泰托县200、内蒙古宝丰一期280装置检 修，内蒙古新奥60、陕西精益26装置计划重启，下周甲醇产量预期减少。 | | --- | --- | | 进口 | 国际甲醇装置开工79.27%，环比上周微幅增加，同比略低1个点。4月11日至4月17日， 总进口量在17.6万吨，下周期到港预计在17.8万吨，进口依然较少。 | | 需求 | 甲醇制烯烃行业产能利用率83.90%，环比-3.62%。受华东MTO企业停车、降负以及西北 MTO企业停车 ...