寒枝未暖 晓色难寻 — 2026 年聚乙烯年报 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 化工小组 研究员: 刘筱璇 从业资格号：F03101434 投资咨询号：Z0021181 初审：张莎 从业资格号：F03088817 投资咨询号：Z0019577 复审：赵肖肖 从业资格号：F0303938 投资咨询号：Z0022015 寒枝未暖 晓色难寻 ——2026年聚乙烯年报 观点总结： 成本方面，预计支撑力度有限。原油全球供应过剩，需求增速放缓；煤炭供 需宽松格局难改，价格弱稳运行，难有反弹。油煤对聚乙烯成本支撑不足，后续 关注宏观及地缘政治对油煤价格的阶段性扰动。 供应方面，聚乙烯供应压力预计增加。2026 年国内聚乙烯延续扩产，计划 新增产能超 700 万吨，总产能有望达 4500 万吨，高压及高端装置占比提升。供 应扩容下，通用牌号竞争加剧、价格承压，高端产能加速布局推动结构升级；进 口受国产供应、毛利及政策影响，预计延续收缩。行业聚焦高性能竞争，长期助 力高质量发展。 需求方面，存缓慢恢复预期。国内 PE 需求将温和回暖，短长期趋势分化， 不确定性仍存。稳增长政策滞后效应、消费改善等将支撑 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 聚烯烃周报 国泰君安期货研究所 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 观点综述 01 塑料部分 02 聚丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 本周塑料观点：跌价部分标品转产非标，但检修有限供应宽松，压制价格 | | 总有效产能增速16%，上半年利润尚可，国产量增速18%，进口有同比下滑，但宽松的供应压制价格。PE总开工82.6%/-1.2%。新增独山子、齐鲁、天 | | --- | --- | | | 津石化临时检修，裕龙、东明石化重启，供应小幅下滑；下周扬子、中韩、茂名重启，供应再度增加。Q4检修计划同比略低，预计供应维持宽松状 | | | 态，12月中旬以来福建联合、内蒙、宁夏宝丰约130万吨全密度产能转产HD,占比约3.3%，且外盘乙烯裂解利润持续承压，关注后续规模及对 ...

PRM是三井化学与出光兴产于2005年共同成立的合资企业，目前拥有126万吨/年聚丙烯、55万吨/年聚 乙烯的产能，是日本聚烯烃产品的主要生产商。 12月24日，三井化学、出光兴产与住友化学宣布达成最终协议，共同打造一家实力强大的聚烯烃生产企 业。 此前，这三家日本化工巨头9月10日联合宣布，已经签署了一份谅解备忘录，整合由三井化学与出光兴 产共同投资的Prime Polymer株式会社(简称"PRM")所经营的聚烯烃业务，并将其与住友化学在日本的聚 丙烯及线性低密度聚乙烯(LLDPE)业务进行整合。 聚烯烃约占日本塑料需求的50%，对日本工业至关重要。自20世纪90年代以来，虽然日本聚烯烃制造商 经历了合并，但供应过剩的问题仍未得到解决。三家公司表示，由于日本人口减少和生活方式变化导致 市场需求萎缩，预计未来对聚烯烃的需求将进一步下降。 根据协议，住友化学将其在日本的PP和LLDPE业务转移给PRM，分为两个阶段进行。第一阶段，除生 产职能外，住友化学将收购PRM20%的股份，计划于2026年7月1日完成。届时，三井物产将持有 PRM52%的股份，出光兴产持股28%，住友化学持股20%；第二阶段将转移与生产 ...

何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 行业预计持续处于高供应阶段。农膜需求淡季，开工率维持下降趋势；包装膜需求跟进有限，难以形成需 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 求支撑。成本方面，受美委地缘局势恶化影响，近期国际油价涨幅显著。原油成本支撑与LLDPE供需弱势 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 博弈，短期L2605预计偏弱震荡。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 塑料产业日报 2025-12-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6296 | 56 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日, ...

南华期货塑料产业周报 ——现货端悲观情绪带动下跌 戴一帆 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428 研究助理: 顾恒烨 期货从业证号 F03143348 联系邮箱: guhy@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月14日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周聚烯烃盘面快速下跌，主要源于市场情绪持续悲观。上游持续降价出货，但未能有效激发下游投机性补 库意愿，整体成交未见明显好转，现货供应压力进一步累积。因此导致了盘面下跌的同时，基差进一步走弱 的情况。另外，从PE基本面来看，当前呈现供增需减的格局：在供应方面，年底装置计划性检修相对有限， 叠加前期检修的装置陆续重启，开工率回归高位，并且四季度仍有多套装置投产，供应压力持续增加。而在 需求端，下游需求旺季目前已进入尾声，农膜开工率呈现由升转降的趋势，后续需求的刚需支撑将有所转 弱。因此当前PE供需压力依然偏大，较难形成有力支撑。综合来看，若要看到盘面企稳回升，短期需要看到 现货端情况出现改善，而中长期需要看到PE供需情况出现实质性转好。 PE期现价格 元/吨 LLDPE膜华北现货价格 塑料主力基差(右轴) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - The PE market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation in the short term, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern. The supply pressure continues to increase, while the demand support is insufficient. In the medium - and short - term, a bearish view is taken, and in the long - term, the supply pressure of non - standard PE products may suppress LLDPE prices [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply side: The pressure is continuously increasing. There are few subsequent device maintenance plans, and the start - up rate is expected to continue to rise. In the fourth quarter, new device startups are still concentrated, such as the upcoming startups of two sets of Guangxi Petrochemical's devices [1]. - Demand side: The support is insufficient. Although the agricultural film industry is in the traditional peak season, the overall start - up rate and order growth rate have slowed down. After mid - November, the growth space for demand will be limited, and other downstream industries of PE have insufficient new orders [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: Weak oscillation. The price range of L2601 is 6600 - 7000. The strategy is to short on rallies [10]. - **Basis, spread, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations**: No basis strategy; 1 - 5 reverse spread; short - term hedging arbitrage space is limited, and in the long - term, consider narrowing the L - P spread on the 05 contract [10]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short plastic futures to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce costs [11]. - **Procurement management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy plastic futures to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce costs [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: On Wednesday, affected by the news of gas restrictions on Iranian devices, the methanol futures market strengthened, and polyolefins briefly followed the upward trend [12]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - The start - up situation of two sets of Guangxi Petrochemical's devices [12]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral trend and capital movement**: This week, the futures market oscillated downward. The open interest increased, and there were no obvious changes in the top five long and short positions on the order book. The net long positions of the top five profitable seats slightly increased [17]. - **Basis structure**: The spot situation in East China improved and prices stabilized, but the situations in North and South China were still weak. As of Friday, the basis in North China was - 32 yuan/ton (strengthened by 47 compared with last week), in East China was 138 yuan/ton (+107), and in South China was 248 yuan/ton (- 3) [20]. - **Spread structure**: The L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure due to the relatively optimistic market expectation for the subsequent macro - situation and the limited start - up of LLDPE devices in the first half of next year [22]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - With the continuous weakness of PE prices, the production profits of all production lines are compressed. Currently, the coal - based production line with the best profit is also in a loss state. Since PE devices are not very sensitive to profit conditions, short - term losses usually do not lead to unexpected shutdowns, so PE lacks strong cost - side support in a downward market [26]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of PE is difficult to change. On the supply side, although device maintenance has increased recently, the high inventory capacity and the upcoming start - up of multiple devices in the fourth quarter, as well as the expected increase in imports after October, will further increase the total supply of PE. On the demand side, although the production and sales of agricultural films are still good, the subsequent growth is limited, and the support from other downstream industries of PE will gradually weaken [31]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Its Deduction - The current PE start - up rate is 82.56% (+1.69%). Multiple devices such as Fushun Petrochemical and ExxonMobil restarted at the beginning of the month, and the device maintenance volume decreased. It is expected that the device maintenance volume will continue to decrease, and with the upcoming start - up of two sets of Guangxi Petrochemical's devices, the supply pressure of PE will remain high [38]. 3.5.3 Import - Export and Its Deduction - **Import**: The overseas market is in a loose pattern, and the continuous decline in PE prices has led to an influx of low - price goods into China. Therefore, PE imports are expected to increase in the fourth quarter [43]. - **Export**: Enterprises' enthusiasm for expanding export channels is high this year, and PE exports have increased even in the off - season, but the total volume is still small and has little impact on the PE supply - demand pattern [43]. 3.5.4 Demand - Side and Its Deduction - The current average start - up rate of PE downstream industries is 45.75% (- 0.52%). The agricultural film industry is still in the peak season, but the start - up rate and order growth rate have slowed down. As the year - end approaches, the growth space for demand is limited, and the willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up has weakened [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For LLDPE, the short - term market is expected to be volatile with no obvious driving factors. Supply is neutral, demand is positive, inventory is negative, basis is neutral, profit is negative, valuation is negative, and macro - policy is negative [2]. - For PP, the short - term market is also expected to be volatile with no clear drivers. Supply is neutral, demand is positive, inventory is negative, basis is neutral, profit is positive, valuation is negative, and macro - policy is negative [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 LLDPE Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's polyethylene production was 643,500 tons, a 0.72% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate was 80.87%, a 0.59 - percentage - point decrease. Some plants were under maintenance, increasing the maintenance loss [2]. - **Demand**: The average downstream product start - up rate of LLDPE/LDPE increased by 1.64%. The overall agricultural film start - up rate increased by 2.75%, and the PE packaging film start - up rate increased by 0.52%. In September, China's polyethylene imports were 1.0222 million tons, a 10.07% year - on - year decrease and a 7.58% month - on - month increase [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 416,000 tons, a 19.16% month - on - month decrease. The social sample warehouse inventory was 527,400 tons, a 3.30% month - on - month decrease and a 9.18% year - on - year decrease. The import cargo warehouse inventory also decreased [2]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 309, and the futures price is at a discount [2]. - **Profit**: The costs of oil - based, coal - based, and ethane - based production increased, while the methanol - based cost decreased. The main reason for the increase in oil prices is the US sanctions on Russia and the decline in US commercial crude oil inventories [2]. - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a deep discount [2]. - **Macro - policy**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to the fundamentals, with the futures price showing a weak and volatile trend [2]. 3.2 PP Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's polypropylene production was 789,200 tons, a 1.49% increase from last week and a 17.79% increase from the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate was 77.06%, a 1.12% increase [3]. - **Demand**: The average downstream start - up rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61%. The demand for medical products and cold - chain packaging increased, and the BOPP industry's start - up rate increased steadily. However, the plastic - weaving industry was affected by rainy weather [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 595,100 tons, a 6.80% month - on - month decrease. The port sample inventory decreased by 2.25% month - on - month, and the trader sample inventory decreased by 7.80% month - on - month [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 20, and the futures price is around par [3]. - **Profit**: This week, the profits of coal - based, methanol - based, and externally - purchased propylene - based PP production improved, while the profits of oil - based and PDH - based PP production declined [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3]. - **Macro - policy**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to the fundamentals, with the futures price showing a weak and volatile trend [3]. 3.3 Main Weekly Data Changes - **Prices**: PP futures price decreased by 1.08%, PE futures price decreased by 1.00%, LLDPE CFR decreased by 1.22%, and ethylene CFR decreased by 3.85% [5]. - **Production and Start - up Rates**: PP production decreased by 5.22%, PE production decreased by 0.72%, PP start - up rate increased by 4.83%, and PE start - up rate decreased by 0.73% [5]. - **Inventory**: PP factory inventory decreased by 5.88%, PE social inventory increased by 0.10%, HDPE social inventory decreased by 3.16% [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current supply-demand pattern of PE is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, which is difficult to change. The supply pressure remains high due to high inventory capacity and the successive commissioning of multiple devices in the fourth quarter, while the demand support will gradually weaken at the end of the year [1][8][33]. - In the short - to medium - term, PE is expected to show a weak and volatile trend, and a bearish view is recommended. In the long - term, the supply pressure of LLDPE may ease next year, but the supply pressure of non - standard products may suppress its price [8]. - The macro environment has a significant impact on the PE market. The weakening of the macro atmosphere and the decline in crude oil prices have led to a general decline in chemical products, and attention should be paid to subsequent policy changes [1]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply - demand level: Supply pressure is high as the total output remains high despite a slight increase in recent maintenance volume, and new devices are to be commissioned. Demand support is weak as the incremental space for demand is limited at the end of the year, and downstream raw material inventory is high [1]. - Macro level: Crude oil prices have peaked and declined, and the result of the Sino - US trade negotiation is lower than market expectations, leading to a weakening of the macro atmosphere. The influence of macro emotions and cost fluctuations on the PE market has increased [1]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Weak and volatile [10]. - Price range: L2601 is between 6800 - 7100 [10]. - Strategy suggestion: Short on rallies [10]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - Price range forecast for polyethylene: 6800 - 7200 [12]. - Hedging strategies: For inventory management, short plastic futures and sell call options; for procurement management, buy plastic futures and sell put options [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Not provided in the content. - Bearish information: The Sino - US meeting result is lower than market expectations, new devices are commissioned, and the restart of some devices increases supply [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - OPEC + meeting results on December crude oil production, the situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and relevant policy suggestions after the Fourth Plenary Session [18]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The disk reached a peak on Tuesday and then declined this week [20]. - Capital movement: The open interest increased this week, with no significant changes in the top five long and short positions in the order book, a slight reduction in net short positions of the top five profitable seats, and a slight increase in net short positions of the main profitable seats [20]. - Basis structure: The spot price lacks support and follows the decline of the PE disk. As of Friday, the basis in North China was - 79 yuan/ton (weakened by 20 compared with last week), in East China was 31 yuan/ton (- 10), and in South China was 251 yuan/ton (+ 70) [22]. - Spread structure: The L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure due to the relatively optimistic macro expectations and the limited commissioning of LLDPE devices in the first half of next year [24]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The production profits of all production lines have been compressed, and the coal - based production line with the best profit is also in a loss state. PE devices are not sensitive to profit conditions, so there is a lack of strong cost support during the downward trend [28]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The pattern of strong supply and weak demand of PE is difficult to change. Supply pressure is high due to high inventory capacity, new device commissioning, and expected increase in imports after October. Demand support will gradually weaken as the incremental space for demand is limited at the end of the year [33]. 5.2 Supply - side and Deduction - The current PE operating rate is 80.86% (- 0.59%). Although the maintenance loss has increased, new device commissioning will still lead to high supply pressure [36]. 5.3 Import - Export and Deduction - Import: Overseas supply - demand is weak, and low - price goods are flowing into China, resulting in an increase in imports in the fourth quarter [41]. - Export: Enterprises are more active in expanding export channels, but the overall export volume is small and has little impact on the supply - demand pattern [41]. 5.4 Demand - side and Deduction - The average downstream operating rate of PE is 45.75% (- 0.38%). The agricultural film is in the peak season with increasing operating rate and orders, while the packaging film has insufficient new orders and a declining operating rate [49].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - For L and PP, the rating is neutral [4]. 2. Core View - The downstream demand for polyolefins is still slowly increasing, and both PE and PP are under pressure. The short - term trends of PE and PP are mainly influenced by the cost side. The supply of both is under pressure, and the demand is slowly recovering. The price of PE is in short - term shock consolidation, and the price of PP continues to be weak [2][3]. 3. Section Summaries Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6,968 yuan/ton (-41), PP main contract at 6,651 yuan/ton (-34). LL North China spot was 6,950 yuan/ton (-10), LL East China spot 7,060 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot 6,580 yuan/ton (-30). LL North China basis was -18 yuan/ton (+31), LL East China basis 92 yuan/ton (+41), PP East China basis -71 yuan/ton (+4) [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 80.9% (-0.6%), PP开工率 was 77.1% (+1.1%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 343.2 yuan/ton (-39.1), PP oil - based production profit was -346.8 yuan/ton (-39.1), PDH - based PP production profit was 45.6 yuan/ton (-8.9) [2]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was 69.8 yuan/ton (+86.1), PP import profit was -294.7 yuan/ton (+0.7), PP export profit was -21.7 dollars/ton (-5.1) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 49.5% (+2.4%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 51.3% (-1.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 44.2% (-0.2%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.6% (+0.2%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: OPEC+ has a production increase plan, the supply surplus expectation is strengthened, and the demand is expected to remain weak. The cost support of PE is weakened. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is still limited. The PE price is in short - term shock consolidation, and the upside space may be limited [3]. - **PP**: The oil - based cost support is weakened, but the supply - demand contradiction still exists. The supply pressure continues, and the demand is slowly recovering. The price of PP continues to be weak [3]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral for L and PP [4]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, polyolefins continued their downward trend this week, mainly driven by macro - sentiment and upstream cost fluctuations, with limited fundamental drivers. The market should focus on whether Sino - US trade frictions will escalate and if new stimulus policies will be introduced during the 20th Fourth Plenary Session. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [7]. - In the long - term, due to the large number of new PE installations planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter, the supply is expected to increase further. Without new demand - boosting policies, the supply - demand pressure of PE is difficult to resolve, and the weak pattern is expected to continue [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply - demand aspect: The PE supply - demand pattern has not changed much. In October, the device maintenance volume decreased compared to September, and supply returned to a high level. Overseas PE supply - demand is weak, and import is expected to increase from October to November, intensifying supply pressure. Although it is the traditional peak season, demand recovery is slow, downstream orders are insufficient, and enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory is low. PE inventory, especially LLDPE inventory, is at a high level, and the upstream and mid - stream face great shipment pressure [2]. - Macro aspect: The continuous shutdown of the US government and market concerns about credit risks have increased risk - aversion sentiment in the financial market, putting downward pressure on crude oil. Sino - US trade policies are still uncertain, and if trade frictions escalate, it may lead to further price drops in crude oil and chemical products. The 20th Fourth Plenary Session next week is worth attention, and new stimulus policies may boost market sentiment [2]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Near - term trading logic: The market should focus on Sino - US trade frictions and new stimulus policies during the 20th Fourth Plenary Session. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [7]. - Long - term trading expectation: The supply - demand pressure of PE is difficult to resolve, and the weak pattern is expected to continue [8]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range forecast for polyethylene: 6800 - 7200, with a current volatility of 8.43% and a historical percentile of 5.8% (3 - year) [13]. - Hedging strategy for inventory management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short plastic futures to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce costs [13]. - Hedging strategy for procurement management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy plastic futures to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce costs [13]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: The market's concern about the US imposing a 100% tariff on China was alleviated by Trump's signal. A 500,000 - ton LLDPE full - density device of Yulong stopped for 5 days due to a fault [15]. - Bearish information: The risk - aversion sentiment in the financial market led to a continuous decline in crude oil prices [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - The decline of the plastic market slowed down on Wednesday and Thursday, and the downstream's willingness to buy at the bottom increased, leading to a rapid increase in trading volume [17]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - Unilateral trend and fund movement: In the context of the continuous decline of crude oil, PE prices followed the downward trend. This week, the position increased slightly, and the market's bearish sentiment was strong [22]. - Basis structure: During the decline this week, the spot price weakened following the disk, and the basis strengthened passively [24]. - Spread structure: The spread structure has not changed much recently, and the L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure [26]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - As PE prices continued to be weak, the production profits of all production lines were compressed. The coal - based production line with the best profit is on the verge of losses. PE devices are not sensitive to profit, so short - term losses do not usually cause unexpected shutdowns, resulting in a lack of strong cost support during the price decline [28]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - With the restart of devices and the commissioning of new production capacity, supply pressure will gradually emerge. After October, imports are expected to increase, further increasing the total PE supply. Although it is the traditional peak season for PE downstream, demand growth is expected to be lower than supply. In October, inventory is expected to change from destocking to stocking rapidly, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern will suppress PE prices [34]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The current PE operating rate is 81.76% (- 2.19%). This week, the device maintenance volume increased slightly. ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE device is in the trial - run stage. Overall, the return of maintenance devices and the commissioning of new production capacity in the fourth quarter will lead to continuous high supply pressure [38]. 3.5.3 Import - Export and Deduction - Import: The overseas PE supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price difference between the US and China has dropped to a historical low. It is expected that PE imports will increase from late October to November [41]. - Export: Enterprises' enthusiasm for expanding export channels is high this year, and PE exports have increased even in the off - season, but the overall volume is still small and has little impact on the PE supply - demand pattern [41]. 3.5.4 Demand - Side and Deduction - The average operating rate of PE downstream industries is 42.17% (+ 0.56%). The agricultural film operating rate increased significantly, but the growth is slower than in previous years. Other downstream demand is flat, so the demand - side support for PE is limited [44].