援引中国化工报消息：目前，全球塑料添加剂市场正处于上升轨道，但近年来 受经济和地缘政治挑战影响，市场也出现了波动。不过，标普全球商品洞察公司特 化品更新项目发布的最新《特种化学品行业概述》报告显示，2024 至 2029 年全球 塑料添加剂消费量预计将以 3.2%的复合年增长率继续增长。此轮塑料添加剂的消 费增长与汽车、航空、电子、医疗和建筑等塑料终端消费领域的产量增长密切相 关，同时又受到不断变化的政策法规的影响。 【逻辑分析】 国内 PE 产能利用率连续 4 周增产，报收 83.9%，同比增产+4.2%，涨幅扩 大；国内 PP 产能利用率连续 3 周增产，报收 77.7%，同比减产-0.1%，跌幅收 窄。10 月至今，波罗的海干散货运费指数下跌至 1939 点，波罗的海原油运费指 数下跌至 1090 点，两者之比报收 1.78，同比上涨+8.5%，连续 8 个月边际走 强，利多聚烯烃单边。 【交易策略】 L&PP 日报 【银河期货】塑料 PP 每日早盘观察（25-10-10） 【市场情况】 L 塑料相关：L2601 合约报收 7153 点，下跌-28 点或-0.39%。华北地区 LLDPE 报收在 705 ...

南华期货塑料产业周报 ——供应压力限制其上行空间 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前PE自身的矛盾并不突出，总体供需格局持续偏弱：在供给端，多套装置集中在9月底重启，10月装置检 修量预计快速下滑，供给回升。并且，由于海外PE供需持续偏弱，外盘价格下滑，源自北美和中东的报盘明 显增加。因此，10-11月PE进口存在进口预期，供应压力进一步加大。在需求端，虽然当前PE正处于逐步进 入旺季的阶段，但是需求回升速度偏缓，下游订单跟进有限，企业补库意愿不强，同时PE库存，尤其是 LLDPE库存处于偏高水位，中上游出货存在压力，因此PE基差持续处于贴水状态。需求的弱导致PE支撑不 足，总体呈现震荡偏弱走势。 PE检修减损量（周）季节性 万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 01/01 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 0 5 10 15 LLDPE外盘价格 source： wind,南华研究 美元/吨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the joint venture company, Fujian Zhong-A Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd., marks a significant investment in the refining and chemical sector, with a total investment of 711 billion RMB, focusing on the integrated refining and chemical project in Fujian [3][4]. Group 1: Joint Venture Details - The joint venture was officially registered on September 4, with a registered capital of 28.8 billion RMB, where Fujian Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. holds 50%, Sinopec holds 25%, and Saudi Aramco's subsidiary holds 25% [3]. - This project is the largest single investment in refining by Sinopec and the largest industrial project in Fujian province to date, representing a new model of energy cooperation between China and Saudi Arabia [3]. Group 2: Project Investment and Construction - The total investment for the project is 711 billion RMB, with plans for full production by 2030, including the construction of over 30 refining and chemical units [4]. - Key refining capacities include: 16 million tons/year of atmospheric distillation, 3.8 million tons/year of light hydrocarbon recovery, and various hydrogenation and cracking units [4]. - Chemical production will include: 1.5 million tons/year of steam cracking, 600,000 tons/year of hydrogenation of cracked gasoline, and multiple other chemical units [4]. Group 3: Saudi Aramco's Strategic Moves - Saudi Aramco's downstream president stated that this project signifies a new step in their investment in China, with plans to supply over 1 million barrels of crude oil daily to China, enhancing the "oil-to-chemicals" transition [5]. - Saudi Aramco has been actively increasing its market presence in China, with significant investments and partnerships, including a recent agreement with Rongsheng Petrochemical [5]. - The company aims to participate in various large-scale refining and chemical projects in China, indicating a strategic focus on the Chinese market [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers short - term and medium - term trend analyses for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc. It also takes into account factors such as supply - demand balance, device operations, and market sentiment [2][9][10] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply - demand is in tight balance, trend is strong, and positive spreads are recommended. The restart of some PX devices is postponed, and with the commissioning of new PTA devices, short - term supply is tight. Polyester demand is gradually recovering [2][6][9] - **PTA**: Unilateral price is strong, recommend buying on dips, and focus on positive spreads. This week, PTA device operations decreased, and it is in a de - stocking pattern. Demand is seasonally improving [2][10] - **MEG**: Short - term trend is strong, recommend 9 - 1 positive spreads, but there is significant pressure above 4600. Port inventory is decreasing, but there is supply pressure in the 01 contract [2][10] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It is in a volatile state. The inventory in Qingdao has decreased, and the market is affected by factors such as futures prices and substitute prices [2][11][14] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Short - term is strong, but medium - term is in a range - bound state. Driven by macro - sentiment and natural rubber trends, but the fundamentals lack obvious drivers [2][16][17] Asphalt - The cracking spread continues to weaken. September's production is expected to increase, and the inventory of some regions has changed. It follows the oil price to fluctuate within a range [2][18][32] LLDPE and PP - **LLDPE**: Short - term is strongly volatile. Cost rebounds, demand improves, and inventory is low. However, there may be a short - term supply pressure relief in September [2][35][36] - **PP**: Short - term rebounds, medium - term is in a range - bound state. Short - term demand improves, but the long - term supply pressure increases as new capacity is put into operation [2][39][40] Caustic Soda - Short - term correction, pay attention to the pressure of near - month warehouse receipts. The demand is expanding, especially in the alumina industry. The export also provides support, but the supply side is restricted by the weakness of PVC [2][44][46] Pulp - It is in a volatile state. The market shows a pattern of strong broad - leaf pulp and stable softwood pulp. The core contradiction lies in the game between high international quotes and weak domestic reality [2][50][53] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The market price fluctuates, with rigid demand replenishment increasing slightly, but the high - inventory contradiction still exists [2][55][56] Methanol - Short - term is volatile with support. Macro - sentiment drives it to rise, but the port inventory pressure is large, and the medium - term may correct under the high - premium pattern [2][58][60] Urea - It is in a weak state. The inventory of enterprises has increased, and the market is in a process of weakening speculation. Although macro - factors provide some support, the long - term fundamentals are still weak [2][62][65] Styrene - Short - term is strong, medium - term is bearish. As the downstream enters the seasonal bottom - fishing stage, the short - term inventory is decreasing, but the long - term demand for replenishment is insufficient [2][66][67] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The market is weakly volatile, with device operations fluctuating slightly and downstream demand being cautious [2][68][70] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Import cost provides support, but supply - demand lacks obvious improvement. CP prices have increased, and there are many device maintenance plans [2][72][76] - **Propylene**: Supply - demand is in tight balance, and the price is strongly sorted. There is a certain relationship with the spread of related contracts [2][72] PVC - The trend is under pressure. Although short - term volatility is affected by anti - involution sentiment, the supply side has high operations, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [2][79][80] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It is in a high - level volatile state at night, and the short - term strength continues. Futures prices and spot prices have increased [2][82] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Near - month contracts continue to rise, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market has temporarily stabilized [2][82] Container Freight Index (European Line) - It may continue to be weakly volatile. Freight rates have declined, and factors such as futures prices, freight rate indices, and carrier prices need to be considered [2][84]

Core Insights - The overall operating rate of China's polyethylene (PE) industry in August 2025 is estimated at 80.44%, showing an increase from July [3][5] - The operating rates for different PE categories are as follows: LDPE increased by 1.98 percentage points to 68.77%, LLDPE slightly increased by 0.04 percentage points to 81.16%, and HDPE saw a significant rise of 8.65 percentage points to 82.65% [5][6] LDPE Analysis - LDPE production experienced a slight increase, with an estimated growth of 2.96% month-on-month [6] - The restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical's high-pressure unit after maintenance helped offset the production gap caused by planned maintenance at Shenhua Xinjiang [6] - Notable increases in LDPE varieties include a rise of 15,600 tons in film materials, while coating and injection materials saw declines of 13,000 tons and 4,200 tons, respectively [6] LLDPE Analysis - The LLDPE market in August displayed a trend of "stable total volume, structural changes" [6] - Overall production saw a minor increase of 0.04%, but significant internal adjustments occurred [6] - LLDPE film (MI=2, excluding opening agents) production increased by 56,800 tons, while other LLDPE varieties experienced reductions, including a decrease of 33,400 tons in LLDPE (MI=2, including opening agents) [6] HDPE Analysis - HDPE production surged by 11.68% month-on-month, marking the largest single-month increase of the year [7] - This growth was primarily driven by the restart of the dual lines at Lianyungang Petrochemical and the commissioning of a new facility at Jilin Petrochemical [7] - The supply of HDPE film saw a notable increase of approximately 103,700 tons, while other categories like HDPE pipe and various other products also experienced growth [7] Market Outlook - The supply pattern for PE in August is characterized by "HDPE increase, LDPE stability, and LLDPE flatness" [8] - It is anticipated that the HDPE supply will face pressure in a relaxed supply environment, while LDPE prices are expected to maintain a high level [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the supply - demand weakness of LLDPE persists, and L2509 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices. The daily K - line should pay attention to the support around 7160 and the pressure around 7290 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract is 7214 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the 1 - month contract is 7225 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the 5 - month contract is 7200 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the 9 - month contract is 7214 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The trading volume is 204,281 lots, down 103,204 lots, and the open interest is 436,856 lots, up 2,991 lots. The spread between the 1 - month and 5 - month contracts is 25 yuan, unchanged. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 358,600 lots, up 515 lots; the short position is 402,176 lots, down 5,715 lots; the net long position is - 43,576 lots, up 6,230 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7206.09 yuan/ton, down 23.91 yuan; in East China is 7319.02 yuan/ton, down 13.17 yuan. The basis is - 7.91 yuan, down 16.91 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 62.88 US dollars/barrel, down 1.48 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 583.75 US dollars/ton, down 13.25 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia is 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate is 77.79%, down 1.67 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PE packaging film is 48.07%, down 0.37 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes is 28%, unchanged; the operating rate of PE agricultural film is 12.63%, up 0.54 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 11.71%, down 1.17 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 12.54%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 12.01%, down 1 percentage point; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 12.02%, down 0.98 percentage points [2] Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, China's polyethylene output was 605,900 tons, a 2.10% decrease from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 77.79%, a 1.67 - percentage - point decrease. The average operating rate of polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.18% from the previous period. As of July 16th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 529,300 tons, a 7.34% increase; as of July 11th, the social sample warehouse inventory was 536,600 tons, a 3.68% increase [2] Outlook - In July, there are many PE maintenance devices. This week, the devices of Sinopec Hubei and Jilin Petrochemical are shut down for maintenance, and the device of Shanghai Petrochemical is planned to restart. It is expected that the output and capacity utilization rate will decline. New devices of ExxonMobil and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical are expected to be put into production this month, which may increase the industry supply pressure in the long - term. The downstream off - season continues, the terminal stocking willingness is low, and the downstream operating rate is expected to maintain a narrow downward trend. Recently, international oil prices have fallen. Overall, the short - term supply - demand weakness of LLDPE continues [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and trading suggestions for each commodity [2] - Different commodities are expected to have different market trends, such as some in a state of shock, some with upward or downward pressure, and some with specific trading strategies recommended Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: PTA new device is about to be put into production, but PX supply - demand remains tight. Suggest monthly spread positive arbitrage and short PXN at high levels [4][7][12] - **PTA**: Stop profit on long PX short PTA, and conduct monthly spread reverse arbitrage. Supply will be marginally loose from mid - July, and it is recommended to focus on monthly spread reverse arbitrage [4][12] - **MEG**: It is a single - sided shock market. Suggest basis and monthly spread positive arbitrage, and do not chase short on a single - sided valuation. Import is expected to be tight in August, and it is recommended to go long on a single - sided basis at low levels [4][13][14] Rubber - Rubber is expected to run in a shock state. The trading volume and open interest of the main contract have changed slightly, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased slightly [15][16][17] Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is under shock pressure. The cost side is weakening, and the supply increment is greater than the demand increment. The NR - BR spread may support the price [19][20][21] Asphalt - Asphalt is expected to rise in a shock state with a downward valuation adjustment. The weekly output has increased, and both factory and social inventories have accumulated [22][34] LLDPE - LLDPE is expected to be in a short - term weak shock state. The macro - situation has led to a premium retracement, and the supply pressure is increasing while the demand is weak [35][36] PP - PP spot prices are falling, and trading is dull. Futures are oscillating downward, and downstream demand is weak [40][41] Caustic Soda - The price of caustic soda futures has rebounded due to the sharp decline in liquid chlorine prices. The short - term spot has rebounded, but the supply pressure is still large, and the cost has increased [43][45] Pulp - Pulp is expected to run in a shock state. The spot price is stable, the supply pressure is not relieved, and the demand is weak [49][51][52] Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The market shows a trend of mixed rise and fall, and the downstream demand is not strong [55][56] Methanol - Methanol is expected to run in a short - term shock state. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has also weakened. It is expected to oscillate within a narrow range [59][61] Urea - Urea is expected to run in a shock state. The domestic market is supported by domestic demand and export, and the inventory is in a shock pattern. There is a multi - empty game in the short term [63][64][66] Styrene - Styrene is expected to be in a short - term shock state. Pay attention to the listing of pure benzene futures, and different trading strategies are recommended [67][71][72] Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The market is in a low - level shock state, with supply at a high level and weak demand [74][76] LPG - LPG is expected to have a short - term wide - range shock. The PDH and other开工 rates have changed, and there are many device maintenance plans [79][81][87] PVC - PVC is in a short - term shock state with pressure in the later stage. The supply reduction drive is insufficient, and the high - output and high - inventory structure is difficult to change [91][92] Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night session followed the rise in crude oil prices, and short - term fluctuations may increase again [95] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The strong trend continues, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market oscillates at a high level [95] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC2508 contract is expected to oscillate and consolidate, and it is recommended to hold a light short position in the EC2510 contract [97]

2025年07月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：供需紧平衡，逢低正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：单边震荡市 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡运行格局延续 | 6 | | 沥青：暂时震荡，关注地缘 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期偏强震荡 | 10 | | PP：现货震荡，成交平淡 | 12 | | 烧碱：关注液氯的影响 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：窄幅震荡 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 25 | | PVC：短期偏强，后期仍有压力 | 28 | | 燃料油：短期弱势调整为主，盘面波动低位 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘偏强，外盘现货高低硫价差继续上行 | 30 | | 集运指数（欧线）：08震荡整理；10空单轻仓持有 | 31 | | 短纤：短期震荡 | 35 | | 瓶片：短期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - L2509 showed a slight oscillation, closing at 7,284 yuan/ton. On the supply side, this week's PE production increased by 3.95% week-on-week to 618,900 tons. On the demand side, the average operating rate of downstream PE products last week decreased by 0.05% week-on-week, continuing the seasonal decline. In terms of inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 2.19% week-on-week to 438,400 tons, while the social inventory increased by 9.09% week-on-week to 507,100 tons, with no significant overall inventory pressure. In July, there are many PE maintenance devices, but the previous new capacity put into operation partially offsets the maintenance losses, and the current production is still at a high level. The off-season for downstream continues, and the terminal's willingness to stock up is low. The downstream operating rate is expected to maintain a narrow downward trend. In terms of cost, the US and Vietnam reached a trade agreement, and Iran suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, leading to a recent increase in international oil prices. In the short term, both supply and demand of LLDPE are weak, and L2509 is expected to show an oscillating trend. Pay attention to the support around 7,200 and the resistance around 7,340 on the daily K-line [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 7,284 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 7,262 yuan/ton, unchanged; the closing price of the May contract was 7,248 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 7,284 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The trading volume was 243,442 lots, down 26,719 lots; the open interest was 444,132 lots, up 839 lots. The spread between the January and May contracts was 14 yuan, down 5 yuan. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 359,447 lots, down 488 lots; the short positions were 399,519 lots, up 2,868 lots; the net long positions were -40,072 lots, down 3,356 lots [2] 现货市场 - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,296.52 yuan/ton, up 26.09 yuan; the average price in East China was 7,398.54 yuan/ton, up 0.24 yuan. The basis was 12.52 yuan, up 30.09 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 62.02 US dollars per barrel, up 0.04 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 572.25 US dollars per ton, up 1.5 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 861 US dollars per ton, unchanged; the CFR mid - price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 851 US dollars per ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants was 76.44%, down 2.25 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 47.96%, down 1.19 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 28.33%, down 0.34 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 12.35%, up 0.23 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 14.38%, down 0.04 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.5%, down 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 10.73%, down 0.27 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 10.72%, down 0.28 percentage points [2] Industry News - The US government revoked a restrictive licensing requirement imposed on two major ethane producers and exporters, Enterprise Products Partners and Energy Transfer, a few weeks ago. The 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized the in - depth promotion of the construction of a unified national market, the governance of low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations, the guidance of enterprises to improve product quality, and the promotion of the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. The US and Vietnam reached a trade agreement, with the US imposing a 20% tariff on imported Vietnamese goods and Vietnam "fully opening its market" to the US [2]

2025年05月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：多PX空PTA | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：基差持续上涨，多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：持续去库，但盘面上方空间有限，多PTA空MEG | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏弱 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：弱势运行 | 7 | | 沥青：华南降价，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | LLDPE：偏弱运行 | 12 | | PP：价格小跌，成交一般 | 14 | | 烧碱：暂时是震荡市 | 15 | | 纸浆：震荡偏强 | 17 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 19 | | 甲醇：短期震荡，中期趋势仍偏弱 | 20 | | 尿素：内需偏弱，出口支撑，震荡运行 | 22 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 24 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 26 | | LPG：民用气走弱，近端价格承压 | 27 | | PVC：偏弱运行 | 30 | | 燃料油：夜盘大幅回跌，短期重回震荡走势 | 32 | | 低硫燃料油：跟随原油下探，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收窄 | 32 | | 集运指数（欧线）：近月高位震荡，10-12反套持 ...