Group 1 - The market widely expects Kevin Hassett to be nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair, but only 11% believe he should be appointed [1] - Christopher Waller is the preferred candidate with 47% support, followed by Kevin Warsh at 23%, yet only 5% think Trump will nominate either [1] - Concerns about Hassett focus on his commitment to the Fed's dual mandate and independence, with 76% believing the next chair will be more dovish than Jerome Powell [3] Group 2 - There is a significant divide on whether the Fed should cut rates, with 87% expecting a rate cut but only 45% believing it should happen [3] - Economic growth expectations are rising, with GDP growth projected at 2% this year and slightly higher next year, while inflation is expected to remain above the 2% target [5] - "Persistent high inflation" has become the top economic risk, with concerns about the potential stimulus effects of record tax refunds in 2026 [6] Group 3 - Despite concerns about a potential AI bubble, respondents predict a 6% increase in the S&P 500 next year and another 6% in 2027, with 90% believing AI stocks are overvalued [8] - Systemic risk in the U.S. credit market is perceived to have slightly increased, rising from 53% to 60% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Goldman Sachs research team, led by Jan Hatzius, indicates that the U.S. labor market is showing significant signs of cooling, strongly suggesting a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month [1] Labor Market Analysis - U.S. job growth in September plummeted to 39,000, significantly below market expectations [1] - The unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20 to 24 surged to 8.5%, highlighting structural impacts from AI technology applications and productivity improvements [1] Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the U.S. economy will rebound to a growth rate of 2% to 2.5% by 2026, driven by easing tariff policies, tax cuts, and a more accommodative financial environment [1] - The firm anticipates that the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts in January 2026, followed by further easing in March and June, ultimately lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3% to 3.25% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the current levels of long-term bond yields do not indicate a loose financial environment [1] Group 1 - Waller emphasized that the interpretation of long-term bond yields should not be equated with financial conditions being accommodative [1] - The statement suggests a potential misalignment between bond market signals and the actual financial environment [1] - This perspective may influence investor sentiment and market strategies regarding interest rates and economic outlook [1]