阿根廷谷物商会：在正式落实减税措施后，阿根廷将恢复大豆及其衍生品的出口。 ...

惠誉评级：这一税收法案和先前减税措施的延长相结合，很可能使政府总赤字保持在GDP的7%以上， 并在2029年将债务与GDP之比推高至135%。 ...

Core Insights - The preliminary data from the University of Michigan indicates that the U.S. consumer confidence index rose to its highest level in five months, reaching 61.8 in July, up from 60.7 in June, although it remains below most levels from the previous year [1] - Inflation expectations have decreased, with respondents anticipating a 4.4% increase in prices over the next year, down from 5% the previous month, marking the lowest level since February [1] - Concerns about the economic outlook persist, particularly regarding uncertainties related to tariffs, which continue to limit overall optimism [1] Consumer Sentiment - The current conditions index increased from 64.8 to 66.8, while the expectations index slightly rose to 58.6, driven mainly by improved sentiment among Republican supporters and independent voters [2] - The recent rise in consumer confidence may reflect a perception that the worst-case scenarios feared in April and May have eased [1][2] - Consumers' views on their financial situation have improved, potentially influenced by a rising stock market [1]

Group 1 - Swiss bank analysts predict at least one more interest rate cut in the Eurozone this year due to uncertainties in trade negotiations and economic growth risks [1] - Societe Generale strategists expect the 10-year German government bond yield to remain in the range of 2.40%-2.80% by the end of the year, with an anticipated steepening of the yield curve [1] - Monex Europe analysts warn that the British pound faces further depreciation risks as the market has not fully absorbed the fiscal risks associated with the UK [3] Group 2 - Australian economists highlight that the current US tariff policy poses a significant threat to global economic growth, with the average tariff rate rising to 20% from 3% earlier this year [2] - BlackRock maintains an optimistic outlook, suggesting that the US policy environment is gradually becoming favorable for risk assets, particularly equities and credit bonds [2] - Moody's indicates that Japan's potential large-scale tax cuts due to election pressures could negatively impact its credit rating, depending on the extent and duration of the cuts [3]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump expressed discontent with the tax reduction measures in the tax reform bill [1] Group 1 - The tax reform bill includes various tax reduction measures that are not favored by President Trump [1]

" 大而美 " 法案 6 月 28 日获得美国参议院程序性投票通过 。 该法案此前已在众议院通过，目前进入参议院的最终审议阶段。 此法案将实施 美国总统 特朗普大部分政策议程， 若顺利推行，将对美国资本市场及全球投资者产生深远影响。 多家机构认为， 该法案带来的不确定性可能会使投资者风险偏好降低 。从长期来看，该法案对美国经济和市场的影响可能会促使投资者重新审视自己的 长期投资策略。 （图片来自海洛） // 法案获通过可能性大增 // 据央视报道，当地时间 6 月 28 日，美国参议院以 51 票对 49 票通过一项程序性动议， 这项动议旨在推进被美国总统特朗普称为 " 大而美 " 的大规模税收 与支出法案。 共和党人掌控的美国国会众议院 5 月 22 日以一票优势艰难通过 " 大而美 " 法案。 美国参议院程序性投票通过后，未来几天法案通过的可能性大增。 该法案将实施特朗普的大部分政策议程。 值得注意的是，当地时间6 月 28 日，马斯克在社交媒体平台上发文称， 美国参议院关于大规模税收与支出法案的最新草案"将摧毁美国数百万个就业岗 位，并对美国造成巨大的战略伤害"。 另外，该法案将延长减税措施并增加支出， ...

加拿大财政部长：政府将首先实施承诺的减税措施，然后在御座致辞中提出相关计划，随后发布秋季经 济报告。 ...

美国关税传来最新消息。 刚刚，据日本共同社报道，美国拒绝对日本予以"对等关税"全面豁免。另据彭博社报道，在与美国的贸易谈判 中，印度提议在对等的基础上，对一定数量的钢铁、汽车零部件和药品实行零关税。 与此同时，美国宏观数据也持续扰动市场。今晚，美国供应管理协会（ISM）公布的数据显示，美国4月ISM 服务业PMI指数录得51.6，重回扩张区间，大幅高于预期的50.2。分析称，数据表明，在美国制造业受关税影 响持续收缩的背景下，服务业仍表现稳健。 受此影响，美股三大指数跌幅收窄，道指率先转涨，截至发稿，道指涨0.14%，纳指跌幅收窄至0.45%。美国 财政部长贝森特在最新的讲话中表示，美国股市具有"抗脆弱性"，美国将巩固"全球资本中心"的地位。 关税的变数 北京时间5日晚间，日本共同社援引知情人士的话报道，在最近的关税谈判中，美国拒绝对日本予以"对等 关税"全面豁免。 消息人士透露，上周华盛顿会晤期间，美国财政部长贝森特等美国官员告知日本首席谈判代表赤泽亮正，特朗 普政府只愿意考虑降低14%的特定关税，该关税已暂停实施至今年7月初。但日本一直主张彻底取消"对等关 税"，包括对汽车加征25%的关税以及对钢铁和铝加 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the interconnected factors of Trump's tariff policies, tax cuts, and deregulation agenda are key to driving long-term investment in the U.S. economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The proposed "big beautiful bill" by President Trump is expected to be larger than tariffs and aims to be the largest tax cut in U.S. history [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Legislative Efforts**: President Trump praised Senate Majority Leader McConnell for his work on legislation, indicating strong support for the proposed bill [1] - **Political Opposition**: Trump criticized Democrats for attempting to obstruct the bill, warning that their success could lead to a 58% tax increase [1] - **Economic Impact**: The proposed spending bill is positioned as a significant tax reduction measure, potentially reshaping the economic landscape [1]