钢价波动
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螺纹钢、热卷:产量库存有变动,钢价短期波动大
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-15 05:48
Core Insights - The steel market is experiencing significant short-term volatility due to fluctuations in production, inventory, and demand data [1] Production Data - Rebar production decreased by 0.73 million tons to 2.2045 million tons - Hot-rolled coil production increased by 0.7 million tons to 3.1559 million tons - Total production of five major steel products rose by 2.42 million tons to 8.7163 million tons [1] Inventory Data - Total inventory of rebar increased by 30.51 million tons to 5.8719 million tons - Total inventory of hot-rolled coils rose by 0.84 million tons to 3.5747 million tons - Total inventory of five major steel products increased by 40.61 million tons to 14.1597 million tons [1] Demand Data - Apparent demand for rebar decreased by 20.85 million tons to 1.8994 million tons - Apparent demand for hot-rolled coils increased by 8.54 million tons to 3.1475 million tons - Apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 14.72 million tons to 8.3102 million tons [1] Operational Insights - In Tangshan, 31 out of 87 rebar production lines were operational, resulting in an overall operating rate of 52.54%, up by 10.17% from the previous week - Capacity utilization rate was 48.34%, an increase of 6.82% from the previous week [1] Price Trends - Raw material price declines have led to lower finished steel prices, with significant inventory accumulation and decreased apparent demand contributing to weak market performance - Rebar's weekly fundamentals are weaker than hot-rolled coils, with a price drop of nearly 2%, and the main contract falling below 3200 [1] Market Outlook - The short-term outlook for the steel market is characterized by high volatility, with recommendations to consider buying on dips - Future attention should be given to macroeconomic policies, supply-side production cuts, and downstream demand conditions as risk factors [1]
华宝期货晨报成材-20250813
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 03:43
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Short - term fluctuations are large, and it is advisable to try to go long on pullbacks [4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content International Trade Policy - On August 12, the US and China issued the "Joint Statement of the China - US Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks". The US promised to continue adjusting tariff measures on Chinese goods, and both sides continued to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs and relevant non - tariff counter - measures for 90 days starting from August 12 [3] Steel Industry Cost and Profit - On August 12, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,353 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 9 yuan/ton. The average profit was a loss of 39 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was 62 yuan/ton [3] Real Estate Market - From August 4 to August 10, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.308 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 10.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%, with the decline narrowing [3] Steel Price Trend - The news of Tangshan's production restrictions over the weekend, combined with the continued rise of raw material coking coal, led to the continued volatile upward trend of steel prices. The current industry fundamentals are average, mainly due to weak downstream demand. With the approaching parade, there is still potential for steel price rebound under the macro - level and Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei production restriction expectations [3] Later Concerns - Macro policies, supply - side production reduction, and downstream demand conditions [4]
成材:限产预期下钢价反弹上行
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 13:06
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term fluctuations of steel prices will increase, and the overall trend will be relatively strong [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Real Estate Market - From July 21st to 27th, the total transaction (signed) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.4137 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 34.1%; the total transaction (signed) area of second - hand housing was 2.1341 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 5.8% [2] Home Appliance Industry - The latest production scheduling report of three major white goods released by Industry Online shows that the total scheduled production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August 2025 is 26.97 million units, a 4.9% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year [2] Steel Industry - On July 29th, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,343 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the average profit was - 21 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was 79 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 7 yuan/ton [2] - Market news indicates that there will be restrictions on pollutant emissions in six provinces in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region and surrounding areas before the September military parade. Affected by this news, steel prices rebounded significantly, basically recovering the previous day's decline. Currently, the fundamentals of steel have not changed much, and the market trend is mainly dominated by macro factors and market sentiment [2]