Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly - Steel [2] - Release Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Li Haixiao [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In this period, the production of rebar increased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand increased; the same situation occurred for hot-rolled coils. The apparent demand for the five major steel products increased month-on-month. The rebar 2601 contract fluctuated, and the hot-rolled coil 2601 contract also fluctuated [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - In September 2025, the new construction of real estate increased month-on-month [5]. 2. Supply - In September 2025, China exported 10.465 million tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 955,000 tons or 10.0%. From January to September, the cumulative steel exports were 87.955 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.402 million tons or 9.2% [7]. - The pig iron output was 2.399 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10,500 tons and a year-on-year increase of 42,100 tons [7]. - The output of the five major steel products was 8.6532 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 83,700 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 152,600 tons. The rebar output was 2.0707 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 59,100 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 440,800 tons; the hot-rolled coil output was 3.2246 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 6,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 180,700 tons [7]. - The electric furnace operating rate was 67.86%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99% [7]. 3. Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 15.5485 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 274,100 tons and a year-on-year increase of 2.9553 million tons. The rebar inventory was 6.2211 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 189,400 tons and a year-on-year increase of 1.8738 million tons; the hot-rolled coil inventory was 4.1492 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 42,700 tons and a year-on-year increase of 607,500 tons [7]. 4. Demand - The weekly apparent demand for the five major steel products was 8.9273 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 173,200 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 10,800 tons [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as having a short - term rebound potential while operating at a low level [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The industry is operating at a low level with a short - term rebound potential. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Background - According to an agreement between China and the US, a Chinese delegation will hold economic and trade consultations with the US in Malaysia from October 24th to 27th [2] Production Data - Steel Union's weekly data shows that rebar production increased by 5.91 million tons to 207.07 million tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.62 million tons to 322.46 million tons, and the total production of five major steel products increased by 8.37 million tons to 865.32 million tons [2] - National Bureau of Statistics data shows that China's rebar production in September was 14.75 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%; the cumulative production from January to September was 143.387 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [2] Inventory Data - Rebar total inventory decreased by 18.94 million tons to 622.11 million tons, hot - rolled coil total inventory decreased by 4.27 million tons to 414.92 million tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 27.41 million tons to 1554.85 million tons [2] Apparent Demand Data - Rebar apparent demand increased by 6.26 million tons to 226.01 million tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 11.18 million tons to 326.73 million tons, and the total apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 17.32 million tons to 892.73 million tons [2] Market Performance and Influencing Factors - Rebar and hot - rolled coil had a small rebound yesterday. The weekly fundamentals were relatively stable, with both supply and demand increasing and inventory decreasing, which had a limited impact on prices [2] - The recent increase in coking coal and coke at the raw material end drove steel prices from the cost side, and the China - US economic and trade consultations were also beneficial to the commodity market at the macro level [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The macro - sentiment is positive, and the profitability of steel enterprises is acceptable. The improvement in corporate profits has led to a relatively high level of finished product output. The continuous high supply has resulted in significant inventory pressure on finished products during the peak consumption season. If inventory cannot be effectively reduced during the peak season, high inventory will continue to suppress steel prices. Attention should be paid to industry profits and inventory reduction [4][5]. - In the follow - up, focus on the inventory of finished products at the end of the peak consumption season. If the inventory cannot be effectively reduced, the prices of finished products are expected to face significant pressure during the off - season [7]. Summary According to the Directory 2025 Steel Market Operation - In the first quarter of 2025, the prices of black varieties were generally weak. In the second quarter, due to tariff frictions and a weakening macro - market sentiment, finished product prices were under pressure. In mid - to late June, the coking coal market bottomed out and rebounded, driving up the prices of black - series products. In July, the "anti - involution" sentiment boosted prices, but in mid - to late August, prices fluctuated downwards. In October, high inventory suppressed steel prices [14]. - In 2025, construction steel consumption declined, but manufacturing steel consumption and steel exports increased. The difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar prices was positive, expanding from July to August and then showing a narrowing trend recently [20][24]. Steel Cycle Turns Positive, and Corporate Profits are Acceptable - In 2025, steel enterprises had good overall profitability. As of mid - to late October, the profitability rate of 247 sample steel enterprises remained above 55%. From January to August 2025, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 83.7 billion yuan, a significant increase compared to the same period in 2024 [32]. High Production Enthusiasm of Steel Mills, and Output Remains Relatively High - The good profits of steel enterprises have enhanced their production enthusiasm. As of mid - to late October, the daily average output of molten iron from 247 blast furnaces was around 2.41 million tons, about 80,000 tons higher than the same period in 2024. The daily consumption of scrap steel also remained at a high level [38][40]. At the End of the Peak Consumption Season, the Inventory Pressure of Finished Products Remains High - During the traditional off - season in July and August, high profitability drove up production. In September and October, most steel mills maintained high operating rates. The inventory of finished products did not show seasonal reduction, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils was particularly prominent. As of the week ending October 17, 2025, the total inventory of five major steel products was 15.823 million tons, with an unsatisfactory inventory reduction rate. If demand does not increase significantly, high inventory will continue to suppress steel prices [51][57]. Summary - The macro - sentiment is positive, and steel enterprises have acceptable profitability. The improvement in corporate profits has led to a relatively high level of finished product output. The continuous high supply has resulted in significant inventory pressure on finished products during the peak consumption season. If inventory cannot be effectively reduced during the peak season, high inventory will continue to suppress steel prices. Attention should be paid to industry profits and inventory reduction [64][65]. - In the follow - up, focus on the inventory of finished products at the end of the peak consumption season. If the inventory cannot be effectively reduced, the prices of finished products are expected to face significant pressure during the off - season [66].

晨报 成材 成材：成材基本面尚可 钢价震荡运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 9 月 26 日 逻辑：墨西哥政府拟对中国等非自贸伙伴的产品提高进口关税税率的 相关措施，具体涉及汽车及零部件、纺织品、服装、塑料、钢铁、家电、 铝、玻璃等产品类别。商务部决定对墨西哥相关涉华限制措施启动贸易投 资壁垒调查。云南钢企"反内卷"迈出实质性一步。五家龙头钢企锁定省 内 60 万吨资源投放，控产、稳价、共管秩序进入实操阶段，并达成多个 重要决议。根据钢联周度数据，本周螺纹钢产量上升 0.01 万吨至 206.46 万吨，热卷产量下降 2.3 万吨至 324.19 万吨，五大材总产量上升 9.47 万吨至 864.93 万吨；螺纹钢总库存下降 13.98 万吨至 636.3 万吨，热卷 总库存上升 2.51 万吨至 380.5 万吨，五大材总库存下降 9.13 万吨至 1510.61 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The steel market presents a complex situation with different trends for different steel products. The supply - demand contradiction in rebar is accumulating, while that in hot - rolled coils is alleviating. The overall steel inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamentals' contradictions are still building up. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Demand - Rebar apparent demand is 1.9807 million tons (-4), a year - on - year decrease of 20.76%. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand is 3.2616 million tons (+20.8), a year - on - year increase of 3.23%. The apparent demand for the five major steel products is 8.4333 million tons (+15.5), a year - on - year increase of 1.87%. [4] Supply - Rebar production is 2.1193 million tons (-6.75), a year - on - year decrease of 3.09%. Hot - rolled coil production is 3.2514 million tons (+10.9), a year - on - year increase of 3.47%. The production of the five major steel products is 8.6724 million tons (-3.41), a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. [4] Inventory - Rebar inventory is 6.5386 million tons (+13.86), a year - on - year increase of 2.17%. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 3.7332 million tons (-1.02), a year - on - year decrease of 0.27%. The inventory of the five major steel products is 15.1461 million tons (+13.91), a year - on - year increase of 0.93%. [4] Market Analysis - For rebar, due to high profits and the operation of electric - arc furnace profits, some mills stopped production, and the decline in rebar production has widened this week. Rebar demand decreased month - on - month, and the peak - season characteristics have not yet appeared. The supply - demand contradiction continues to accumulate, especially in Hangzhou where the inventory pressure is more obvious due to the inflow of external rebar resources. - For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand have returned to the level before the military parade. The downstream sentiment has improved, and the inventory shows a de - stocking trend, with the supply - demand contradiction gradually alleviating. - For the five major steel products, the inventory is still accumulating, but the inventory - building speed has slowed down. The steel inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamental contradictions are still building up, with the rebar fundamentals being weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. The market is still uncertain about the peak - season demand level. However, since the hot - metal production has returned to a relatively high level before the military parade, the probability of negative feedback is limited. There may be phased replenishment demand before the weekend, which may support the futures prices, but it is expected that the performance of rebar will still be weaker than that of hot - rolled coils. [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that while supply of the five major steel materials is decreasing and demand is increasing, inventory levels are still accumulating, leading to a potentially weak fluctuation in steel prices [1] Group 2 - The hot-rolled coil shows a strong supply and demand dynamic, with inventory shifting from an increase to a decrease [1] - Rebar supply and demand are relatively weak, with demand falling short of expectations, continuing the trend of seasonal inventory accumulation [1] - Overall inventory of the five major materials is in a seasonal accumulation range, putting pressure on the basic steel market [1] Group 3 - On a macro level, expectations for overseas interest rate cuts are increasing, and domestic "anti-involution" policy expectations remain, creating a generally optimistic macro atmosphere that supports the market and limits price declines [1] - The current fundamental pressures are suppressing steel prices, with continuous inventory accumulation and significant shrinkage in steel mill profits, leading to negative feedback pressure [1] - It is anticipated that the market will continue to exhibit a weak fluctuation pattern, with future attention needed on macro policy trends and performance of demand during peak seasons [1] Group 4 - Positive factors include the ongoing expectations for domestic anti-involution policies and relatively good demand for hot-rolled coils [1] - Negative factors encompass poor demand for rebar, excessive seasonal inventory accumulation, and significant overall inventory pressure in steel materials [1] - Rebar futures contracts face substantial warehouse pressure, and steel mill profits are poor, increasing negative feedback pressure [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint Affected by the military parade, iron - water production decreased, leading to a decline in steel production, especially in hot - rolled production. During the military parade, construction sites and rolling mills in some northern regions stopped working, causing a week - on - week weakening of demand, with a significant drop in hot - rolled apparent consumption. Both rebar and hot - rolled steel inventories continued to accumulate. The supply and demand of the five major steel products both decreased, and inventory accumulation maintained a relatively fast pace, showing a weak fundamental situation. Recently, steel inventories have been continuously accumulating, the fundamentals are weak, and the market's expectations for peak - season demand are relatively conservative, putting pressure on the market. However, after the military parade, iron - water production may return to a relatively high level. Meanwhile, steel circulation indicates that vehicle traffic in mountainous areas is gradually resuming, and some construction sites and rolling mills will gradually resume work. Attention should be paid to the phased restocking demand after the military parade during the peak season, which may support the futures prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Demand - Rebar apparent demand was 2.0207 million tons (-21,400 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 7.57% [2]. - Hot - rolled apparent demand was 3.0536 million tons (-153,600 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.63% [2]. - The apparent demand for the five major steel products was 8.2783 million tons (-299,400 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 3.49% [2]. Supply - Rebar production was 2.1868 million tons (-18,800 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.85% [2]. - Hot - rolled production was 3.1424 million tons (-105,000 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 3.23% [2]. - The production of the five major steel products was 8.6065 million tons (-239,600 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 2.71% [2]. Inventory - Rebar inventory was 6.4 million tons (+166,100 tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.66% [2]. - Hot - rolled inventory was 3.7434 million tons (+88,800 tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.43% [2]. - The inventory of the five major steel products was 15.007 million tons (+328,200 tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.24% [2].

Core Insights - The steel market is experiencing significant short-term volatility due to fluctuations in production, inventory, and demand data [1] Production Data - Rebar production decreased by 0.73 million tons to 2.2045 million tons - Hot-rolled coil production increased by 0.7 million tons to 3.1559 million tons - Total production of five major steel products rose by 2.42 million tons to 8.7163 million tons [1] Inventory Data - Total inventory of rebar increased by 30.51 million tons to 5.8719 million tons - Total inventory of hot-rolled coils rose by 0.84 million tons to 3.5747 million tons - Total inventory of five major steel products increased by 40.61 million tons to 14.1597 million tons [1] Demand Data - Apparent demand for rebar decreased by 20.85 million tons to 1.8994 million tons - Apparent demand for hot-rolled coils increased by 8.54 million tons to 3.1475 million tons - Apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 14.72 million tons to 8.3102 million tons [1] Operational Insights - In Tangshan, 31 out of 87 rebar production lines were operational, resulting in an overall operating rate of 52.54%, up by 10.17% from the previous week - Capacity utilization rate was 48.34%, an increase of 6.82% from the previous week [1] Price Trends - Raw material price declines have led to lower finished steel prices, with significant inventory accumulation and decreased apparent demand contributing to weak market performance - Rebar's weekly fundamentals are weaker than hot-rolled coils, with a price drop of nearly 2%, and the main contract falling below 3200 [1] Market Outlook - The short-term outlook for the steel market is characterized by high volatility, with recommendations to consider buying on dips - Future attention should be given to macroeconomic policies, supply-side production cuts, and downstream demand conditions as risk factors [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Report's Core View - The industry is still in adjustment, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Production Data**: According to the weekly data of Steel Union, the output of rebar increased by 101200 tons to 2.2118 million tons, the output of hot-rolled coil decreased by 79000 tons to 3.1489 million tons, and the total output of the five major steel products increased by 17900 tons to 8.6921 million tons [3] - **Inventory Data**: The total inventory of rebar increased by 103900 tons to 5.5668 million tons, the total inventory of hot-rolled coil increased by 86800 tons to 3.5663 million tons, and the total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 234700 tons to 13.7536 million tons [3] - **Apparent Demand Data**: The apparent demand for rebar increased by 73800 tons to 2.1079 million tons, the apparent demand for hot-rolled coil decreased by 137900 tons to 3.0621 million tons, and the apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 62900 tons to 8.4574 million tons [3] - **Market Performance**: The finished steel rose first and then fell yesterday The increase in raw material prices supports steel prices from the cost side, and the anti-involution at the macro level still disturbs the black series The fundamentals are bearish mainly due to weak downstream demand that is difficult to reverse in the short term [3] - **Later Concerns**: Macro policies, supply-side production cuts, and downstream demand [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report suggests taking a short - selling approach on rallies for steel products [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Data - In terms of production, the output of rebar increased by 56,600 tons to 2.1784 million tons, the output of hot - rolled coil increased by 17,900 tons to 3.2724 million tons, and the total output of the five major steel products increased by 124,800 tons to 8.8099 million tons [3] - Regarding inventory, the total inventory of rebar decreased by 20,700 tons to 5.49 million tons, the total inventory of hot - rolled coil increased by 9,900 tons to 3.4116 million tons, and the total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 11,400 tons to 13.4003 million tons [3] - For apparent demand, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 7,200 tons to 2.1991 million tons, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased by 44,400 tons to 3.2625 million tons, and the total apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 43,300 tons to 8.7985 million tons [3] Group 4: Market Performance and Outlook - The finished steel products rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom yesterday, with the daily K - line still moving sideways in the current area and showing little fluctuation [3] - The weekly fundamentals are normal. The inventory of the five major steel products has slightly accumulated, production has increased, and demand has slightly decreased, presenting a situation of stronger supply and weaker demand [3] - The current high - temperature and rainy weather still has a negative impact on the demand for building materials [3]