期货研究报告|专题报告 2025-10-21 旺季尾声产量居高不下，材库存压力显现 研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 王海涛 邝志鹏 余彩云 yucaiyun@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03096767 投资咨询号：Z0020310 刘国梁 liuguoliang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 企业利润改善，成材产量维持相对高位。钢铁企业整体盈利良好，截止 10 月中下旬， 247 家样本钢铁企业盈利率保持在 55%以上。根据国家统计局数据，2025 年 1-8 月黑色 金属冶炼及压延加工业利润总额 837 亿元，与 2024 年同期相比大幅度提高。利润改善 增强了钢厂生产积极性，铁水日均产量持续处于高位，显示出钢厂较高的生产积极性。 持续高供给，消费旺季成材库存压力较大。7 月、8 月传统消费淡季，盈利水平维持高位 带动钢厂生产积极性增强，铁水及成材产量保持在高位。进入 9 月份，在消费端没有显 著提升的情况下，产量的持续高位使得到 10 月中下旬库存压力逐步显现。 宏观情绪较好，叠加黑色板块基 ...

晨报 成材 成材：成材基本面尚可 钢价震荡运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 9 月 26 日 逻辑：墨西哥政府拟对中国等非自贸伙伴的产品提高进口关税税率的 相关措施，具体涉及汽车及零部件、纺织品、服装、塑料、钢铁、家电、 铝、玻璃等产品类别。商务部决定对墨西哥相关涉华限制措施启动贸易投 资壁垒调查。云南钢企"反内卷"迈出实质性一步。五家龙头钢企锁定省 内 60 万吨资源投放，控产、稳价、共管秩序进入实操阶段，并达成多个 重要决议。根据钢联周度数据，本周螺纹钢产量上升 0.01 万吨至 206.46 万吨，热卷产量下降 2.3 万吨至 324.19 万吨，五大材总产量上升 9.47 万吨至 864.93 万吨；螺纹钢总库存下降 13.98 万吨至 636.3 万吨，热卷 总库存上升 2.51 万吨至 380.5 万吨，五大材总库存下降 9.13 万吨至 1510.61 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The steel market presents a complex situation with different trends for different steel products. The supply - demand contradiction in rebar is accumulating, while that in hot - rolled coils is alleviating. The overall steel inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamentals' contradictions are still building up. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Demand - Rebar apparent demand is 1.9807 million tons (-4), a year - on - year decrease of 20.76%. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand is 3.2616 million tons (+20.8), a year - on - year increase of 3.23%. The apparent demand for the five major steel products is 8.4333 million tons (+15.5), a year - on - year increase of 1.87%. [4] Supply - Rebar production is 2.1193 million tons (-6.75), a year - on - year decrease of 3.09%. Hot - rolled coil production is 3.2514 million tons (+10.9), a year - on - year increase of 3.47%. The production of the five major steel products is 8.6724 million tons (-3.41), a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. [4] Inventory - Rebar inventory is 6.5386 million tons (+13.86), a year - on - year increase of 2.17%. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 3.7332 million tons (-1.02), a year - on - year decrease of 0.27%. The inventory of the five major steel products is 15.1461 million tons (+13.91), a year - on - year increase of 0.93%. [4] Market Analysis - For rebar, due to high profits and the operation of electric - arc furnace profits, some mills stopped production, and the decline in rebar production has widened this week. Rebar demand decreased month - on - month, and the peak - season characteristics have not yet appeared. The supply - demand contradiction continues to accumulate, especially in Hangzhou where the inventory pressure is more obvious due to the inflow of external rebar resources. - For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand have returned to the level before the military parade. The downstream sentiment has improved, and the inventory shows a de - stocking trend, with the supply - demand contradiction gradually alleviating. - For the five major steel products, the inventory is still accumulating, but the inventory - building speed has slowed down. The steel inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamental contradictions are still building up, with the rebar fundamentals being weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. The market is still uncertain about the peak - season demand level. However, since the hot - metal production has returned to a relatively high level before the military parade, the probability of negative feedback is limited. There may be phased replenishment demand before the weekend, which may support the futures prices, but it is expected that the performance of rebar will still be weaker than that of hot - rolled coils. [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that while supply of the five major steel materials is decreasing and demand is increasing, inventory levels are still accumulating, leading to a potentially weak fluctuation in steel prices [1] Group 2 - The hot-rolled coil shows a strong supply and demand dynamic, with inventory shifting from an increase to a decrease [1] - Rebar supply and demand are relatively weak, with demand falling short of expectations, continuing the trend of seasonal inventory accumulation [1] - Overall inventory of the five major materials is in a seasonal accumulation range, putting pressure on the basic steel market [1] Group 3 - On a macro level, expectations for overseas interest rate cuts are increasing, and domestic "anti-involution" policy expectations remain, creating a generally optimistic macro atmosphere that supports the market and limits price declines [1] - The current fundamental pressures are suppressing steel prices, with continuous inventory accumulation and significant shrinkage in steel mill profits, leading to negative feedback pressure [1] - It is anticipated that the market will continue to exhibit a weak fluctuation pattern, with future attention needed on macro policy trends and performance of demand during peak seasons [1] Group 4 - Positive factors include the ongoing expectations for domestic anti-involution policies and relatively good demand for hot-rolled coils [1] - Negative factors encompass poor demand for rebar, excessive seasonal inventory accumulation, and significant overall inventory pressure in steel materials [1] - Rebar futures contracts face substantial warehouse pressure, and steel mill profits are poor, increasing negative feedback pressure [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint Affected by the military parade, iron - water production decreased, leading to a decline in steel production, especially in hot - rolled production. During the military parade, construction sites and rolling mills in some northern regions stopped working, causing a week - on - week weakening of demand, with a significant drop in hot - rolled apparent consumption. Both rebar and hot - rolled steel inventories continued to accumulate. The supply and demand of the five major steel products both decreased, and inventory accumulation maintained a relatively fast pace, showing a weak fundamental situation. Recently, steel inventories have been continuously accumulating, the fundamentals are weak, and the market's expectations for peak - season demand are relatively conservative, putting pressure on the market. However, after the military parade, iron - water production may return to a relatively high level. Meanwhile, steel circulation indicates that vehicle traffic in mountainous areas is gradually resuming, and some construction sites and rolling mills will gradually resume work. Attention should be paid to the phased restocking demand after the military parade during the peak season, which may support the futures prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Demand - Rebar apparent demand was 2.0207 million tons (-21,400 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 7.57% [2]. - Hot - rolled apparent demand was 3.0536 million tons (-153,600 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.63% [2]. - The apparent demand for the five major steel products was 8.2783 million tons (-299,400 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 3.49% [2]. Supply - Rebar production was 2.1868 million tons (-18,800 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.85% [2]. - Hot - rolled production was 3.1424 million tons (-105,000 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 3.23% [2]. - The production of the five major steel products was 8.6065 million tons (-239,600 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 2.71% [2]. Inventory - Rebar inventory was 6.4 million tons (+166,100 tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.66% [2]. - Hot - rolled inventory was 3.7434 million tons (+88,800 tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.43% [2]. - The inventory of the five major steel products was 15.007 million tons (+328,200 tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.24% [2].

Core Insights - The steel market is experiencing significant short-term volatility due to fluctuations in production, inventory, and demand data [1] Production Data - Rebar production decreased by 0.73 million tons to 2.2045 million tons - Hot-rolled coil production increased by 0.7 million tons to 3.1559 million tons - Total production of five major steel products rose by 2.42 million tons to 8.7163 million tons [1] Inventory Data - Total inventory of rebar increased by 30.51 million tons to 5.8719 million tons - Total inventory of hot-rolled coils rose by 0.84 million tons to 3.5747 million tons - Total inventory of five major steel products increased by 40.61 million tons to 14.1597 million tons [1] Demand Data - Apparent demand for rebar decreased by 20.85 million tons to 1.8994 million tons - Apparent demand for hot-rolled coils increased by 8.54 million tons to 3.1475 million tons - Apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 14.72 million tons to 8.3102 million tons [1] Operational Insights - In Tangshan, 31 out of 87 rebar production lines were operational, resulting in an overall operating rate of 52.54%, up by 10.17% from the previous week - Capacity utilization rate was 48.34%, an increase of 6.82% from the previous week [1] Price Trends - Raw material price declines have led to lower finished steel prices, with significant inventory accumulation and decreased apparent demand contributing to weak market performance - Rebar's weekly fundamentals are weaker than hot-rolled coils, with a price drop of nearly 2%, and the main contract falling below 3200 [1] Market Outlook - The short-term outlook for the steel market is characterized by high volatility, with recommendations to consider buying on dips - Future attention should be given to macroeconomic policies, supply-side production cuts, and downstream demand conditions as risk factors [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Report's Core View - The industry is still in adjustment, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Production Data**: According to the weekly data of Steel Union, the output of rebar increased by 101200 tons to 2.2118 million tons, the output of hot-rolled coil decreased by 79000 tons to 3.1489 million tons, and the total output of the five major steel products increased by 17900 tons to 8.6921 million tons [3] - **Inventory Data**: The total inventory of rebar increased by 103900 tons to 5.5668 million tons, the total inventory of hot-rolled coil increased by 86800 tons to 3.5663 million tons, and the total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 234700 tons to 13.7536 million tons [3] - **Apparent Demand Data**: The apparent demand for rebar increased by 73800 tons to 2.1079 million tons, the apparent demand for hot-rolled coil decreased by 137900 tons to 3.0621 million tons, and the apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 62900 tons to 8.4574 million tons [3] - **Market Performance**: The finished steel rose first and then fell yesterday The increase in raw material prices supports steel prices from the cost side, and the anti-involution at the macro level still disturbs the black series The fundamentals are bearish mainly due to weak downstream demand that is difficult to reverse in the short term [3] - **Later Concerns**: Macro policies, supply-side production cuts, and downstream demand [4]

晨报 成材 成材：基本面正常 钢价整理 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 逻辑：根据钢联周度数据，螺纹钢产量上升 5.66 万吨至 217.84 万吨， 热卷产量上升 1.79 万吨至 327.24 万吨，五大次总产量上升 12.48 万吨至 880.99 万吨；螺纹钢总库存下降 2.07 万吨至 549 万吨，热卷总库存上升 0.99 万吨至 341.16 万吨，五大材总库存上升 1.14 万吨至 1340.03 万吨； 螺纹钢表观需求量上升 0.72 万吨至 219.91 万吨，热卷表观需求量下降 4.44 万吨至 326.25 万吨，五大材总表观需求量下降 4.33 万吨至 879.8 ...

钢材周度供需数据解读 2025/6/5 研究员: 冉宇蒙 从业资格号 F03144159 投资咨询号 Z0022199 需求季节性转弱,市场情绪偏悲观 需求：螺纹表需229.03万吨（-19.65）,同比-0.91%;热卷表需320.92万吨（-6.01）,同比-2.73%;五大材表需 882.17 万吨（-31.62）,同比-3.46W。 供给: 螺纹产量218.46万吨（-7.05）,同比-3.13%； 热卷产量328.75万吨（+9.2）,同比2.88%;五大材产量880.38万吨（-0.47）,同比-0.05%。 库存:螺纹库存570.48万吨（-10.57）,同比-1.82%;热卷库存340.64万吨（+7.83）,同比2.35%;五大材库存1363.81万吨（-1.79),同比-0.13%。 赌评。本周螺红需求季节性走弱。不过同比降幅投哀潮旺幸已经不明显。电炉目前普遍亏损，高炉利润也转弱，螺纹产量降幅较大，库存保持较大出他度。板材方面卸分格巷机机息产，供给进一步回升，表积则同样进入零节生转 弱阶段，库存低位小幅回升，压力尚可。冷轧和中厚低供需堆持高位。"抢出口"对制造业需求仍有一定支撑。不过从终端 ...