1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the steel industry are weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The profitability of steel mills has increased, but with the deepening of the off - season, demand is expected to gradually weaken, and the upward driving force is limited [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1成材 (Finished Products) - **Supply**: Some steel mills carried out maintenance. The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills nationwide was 1.903 million tons (- 0.74 thousand tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 3.0836 million tons (+ 2.85 thousand tons) [4]. - **Demand**: Demand increased but was seasonally weak overall. The apparent demand for rebar last week was 1.9034 million tons (+ 15.38 thousand tons), and that for hot - rolled coils was 3.1416 million tons (+ 5.82 thousand tons) [4]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory decreased slightly, and hot - rolled coil inventory continued to decline but still faced pressure. Rebar total inventory was 4.3807 million tons (- 0.04 thousand tons), social inventory was 2.9541 million tons (+ 5.23 thousand tons), and steel mill inventory was 1.4266 million tons (- 5.27 thousand tons); hot - rolled total inventory was 3.6233 million tons (- 5.8 thousand tons), social inventory was 2.858 million tons (- 5.01 thousand tons), and steel mill inventory was 0.7653 million tons (- 0.79 thousand tons) [4]. - **Basis**: As of January 16, the basis of the rebar main contract was 137 yuan/ton (- 9 yuan/ton), and that of the hot - rolled main contract was - 15 yuan/ton (+ 9 yuan/ton) [4]. - **Summary**: The profitability rate of steel mills rose to 39.83%; the molten iron output was 2.2801 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14.9 thousand tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 78.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.47%, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56%; the electric furnace operating rate was 72.97%, unchanged from the previous week, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 57.99%, a week - on - week increase of 1.08% [4]. 3.2 Raw Materials - **Prices**: The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,470 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton), the price of main coking coal in Lvliang was 1,426 yuan/ton (+ 23 yuan/ton), and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 819 yuan/ton (- 7 yuan/ton) [17]. 3.3 Steel Mill Operating Conditions - **Molten Iron Output and Blast Furnace Operating Rate**: Molten iron output declined, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly. As of January 16, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan was 90.77%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78% [20][30]. - **Profitability Rate**: The profitability rate of steel mills increased [24]. 3.4 Production - **Rebar**: As of January 16, rebar production decreased by 0.74 thousand tons week - on - week. In terms of process, long - process production decreased by 1.94 thousand tons week - on - week, and short - process production increased by 1.2 thousand tons week - on - week [35]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: Hot - rolled coil production increased by 2.85 thousand tons week - on - week [35]. 3.5 Demand - **Rebar**: As of January 16, the weekly average trading volume of rebar was 91.8 thousand tons [43]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: As of January 16, the weekly average trading volume of hot - rolled coils was 30.2 thousand tons. The downstream cold - rolled production was 886.7 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 thousand tons, and it was at a high level compared to the same period [48]. 3.6 Inventory - **Tangshan Billet**: As of January 16, the inventory of Tangshan billets was 521 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 97.7 thousand tons. The inventory of major steel products was 8.661 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.74 thousand tons [52]. - **Rebar**: Rebar inventory decreased slightly [54]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: Hot - rolled coil inventory continued to decline [59]. 3.7 Downstream Industries - **Steel Exports**: In November, steel exports were 9.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 197.8 thousand tons; from January to November, the cumulative steel export volume was 107.7 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In November, hot - rolled coil exports were 1.8303 million tons [64]. - **Automobile Industry**: In November, automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173.3 thousand vehicles; automobile sales were 3.429 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106.9 thousand tons. In November, new - energy vehicle production was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 108 thousand vehicles; new - energy vehicle sales were 1.823 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 108 thousand tons [68]. - **Real Estate Industry**: From January to December, national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year, with a decline of 1.3%. Specifically, from January to December, the cumulative new construction area of houses was 597.7 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%; the cumulative completion area of houses was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%. From January to December, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%. The sales amount of newly built commercial housing decreased by 12.6% year - on - year, with a decline of 1.5%. From January to December, the cumulative funds in place of development enterprises was 93.117 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.4% [72].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The hot - rolled coil market is affected by market sentiment, with the futures price showing a strong upward trend. The trend strength of both rebar and hot - rolled coil is rated as "1", indicating a relatively neutral - to - strong trend [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Category Futures Market - For the RB2605 rebar futures, the closing price was 3,187 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan/ton or 2.87% from the previous day. The trading volume was 1,937,222 lots, and the open interest was 1,741,383 lots, an increase of 178,435 lots [2] - For the HC2605 hot - rolled coil futures, the closing price was 3,332 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton or 2.52%. The trading volume was 943,506 lots, and the open interest was 1,377,887 lots, an increase of 103,802 lots [2] Spot Market - In different regions, rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices all increased compared to the previous day, with increases ranging from 30 to 50 yuan/ton. The price of Tangshan steel billet increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2,950 yuan/ton [2] Basis and Spread - The basis of RB2605 decreased by 36 yuan/ton to 133 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2605 decreased by 29 yuan/ton to - 32 yuan/ton [2] - The spread of RB2601 - RB2605 decreased by 28 yuan/ton to - 57 yuan/ton, and the spread of HC2601 - HC2605 increased by 10 yuan/ton to 33 yuan/ton [2] Macro and Industry News - In late December, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 7.21 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 270,000 tons or 3.6%, a decrease of 1.12 million tons or 13.4% compared to late November, and an increase of 620,000 tons or 9.4% compared to the same period of the previous year [3] - According to the weekly data of Steel Union on December 31, in terms of production, rebar production increased by 38,300 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 109,700 tons, and the total production of the five major varieties increased by 183,600 tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar inventory decreased by 122,200 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 62,600 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties decreased by 258,400 tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar demand decreased by 22,400 tons, hot - rolled coil demand increased by 37,300 tons, and the total demand increased by 74,100 tons [3][4] - In mid - December 2025, key steel enterprises produced 18.45 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.845 million tons, a 1.3% decrease from the previous period; 16.81 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.681 million tons, a 1.9% decrease; and 18.03 million tons of steel products, with an average daily output of 1.803 million tons, a 1.4% decrease. The steel inventory of key enterprises was 16.01 million tons, an increase of 1.26 million tons or 8.6% from the previous ten - day period [4] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [4] - In October 2025, China imported 503,000 tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 45,000 tons or 8.2%, with an average price of $1,593/ton, a month - on - month decrease of $31.1/ton or 1.9%. From January to October, the cumulative import of steel was 5.041 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 680,000 tons or 11.9% [4]