研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 15 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 投资咨询证号： Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 10 套利：建议逢高做空卷煤比，做空卷螺差。 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3240 元（-），北京敬业 3120 元（-10），上海鞍钢热卷 3240 元（-），天津河钢热卷 3170 元（-）。 【交易策略】 在前期的下跌过后，今日钢价整体维持震荡偏强走势，黑色板块中铁矿和热卷领 跌，煤焦领涨。钢材现货成交整体一般，终端需求一般。上周钢联数据公布，五大材 继续减产，但减产速度有所放缓，其中螺纹减产速度更快，而热轧由于利润上升出现 增产铁水产量延续下滑；钢材总库存继续下滑，社库去库而厂库有所累积；受季节性 影响，本周钢材表观需求加速去化，其中螺纹需求降幅大于热卷，冷轧需求受制造业 支撑仍然上涨。预计下周铁水产量继续下滑，但高炉利润有所修复，后续主动减产驱 动有限；近期 ...

Group 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook - The production of major steel products has decreased, with rebar production declining faster than hot-rolled steel, and iron output continuing to fall [6][71] - Total steel inventory is rapidly decreasing, with social inventory reducing faster than factory inventory; seasonal demand for steel is also declining, particularly for rebar [6][71] - Environmental inspections have intensified, leading to a further decline in iron output, although profits from blast furnaces are recovering, limiting the drive for active production cuts [6][71] Group 2: Supply and Demand Data - Rebar small sample production is 1.8931 million tons, down 167,700 tons; hot-rolled small sample production is 3.1431 million tons, down 47,000 tons [8][69] - Daily average iron output from 247 steel mills is 2.323 million tons, down 23,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 33.1%, down 0.4% [8][69] - Demand for rebar is 2.1698 million tons, down 109,600 tons; demand for hot-rolled steel is 3.1486 million tons, down 53,600 tons [8][69] Group 3: Macro Data and Economic Indicators - China's fixed asset investment growth rate has declined, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% for the first ten months of 2025; real estate investment has dropped by 14.7% [34] - The official manufacturing PMI for November is 49.2%, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing, while the U.S. manufacturing PMI is at 52.2, showing continued recovery [34][30] - The unemployment claims in the U.S. are at 191,000, lower than the expected 220,000, indicating some stability in the labor market [30][34] Group 4: Inventory Situation - Rebar inventory has decreased by 40,500 tons in factories and 236,200 tons in social inventory, totaling a reduction of 276,700 tons; hot-rolled inventory has increased by 19,000 tons in factories but decreased by 24,500 tons in social inventory [8][69] - Overall inventory for five major materials has decreased by 35,220 tons, with factory inventory down by 64,400 tons and social inventory down by 287,800 tons [8][69] Group 5: Price and Profit Review - The average price for rebar in Shanghai is 3,220 yuan, up 30 yuan; the average price for hot-rolled steel is 3,280 yuan, up 20 yuan [12][80] - The profit for electric arc furnaces in East China is -54.51 yuan per ton, while the profit for using valley electricity is 110 yuan per ton [90][69] - The cash profit for rebar in East China is around 1,200 yuan per ton, indicating a slight profitability for long-process steel mills [23][86]

Group 1: Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian threaded steel is 3210 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye is 3220 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3290 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3230 yuan (-10) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis Core View - The black metal sector maintained a weak and volatile trend today. Iron ore led the rise, while steel spot trading was generally weak, with speculative sentiment low. The output of five major steel products increased this week, with a decrease in threaded steel output due to profit losses and an increase in hot-rolled coil output. The inventory reduction speed of steel products slowed down, the social inventory reduction speed accelerated, and the apparent demand for steel products also declined slightly. It is expected that the molten iron output will continue to decline this week, squeezing raw materials. Recently, coking coal and coke prices have accelerated their decline, while steel and ore prices have risen. The market has already priced in the fourth round of coke price cuts, but the downside space for coking coal is limited. There is a structural shortage of iron ore PB powder, providing cost support for steel products. Recently, infrastructure demand has increased, and the apparent demand for steel products has continued to improve. Therefore, the short-term steel price will still follow the fundamentals and maintain a volatile trend, with the overall range-bound pattern persisting. More factors are needed to break the situation. [5] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a range-bound trend [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to hold the long position of the hot-rolled coil - threaded steel spread [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Important Information - The overall output of five major steel products increased by 5800 tons this week. The factory inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 10200 tons week-on-week, the social inventory decreased by 22090 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 32290 tons [9] - According to the latest production schedule report of three major white goods released by Industrial Online, the total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in December 2025 is 30.18 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1%. Specifically, the production volume of household air conditioners in December is 14.11 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 22.3%; the production volume of refrigerators is 8.13 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%; and the production volume of washing machines is 7.94 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% [9][10] Group 3: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the summary price charts of threaded steel and hot-rolled coil, the basis charts of different contracts for threaded steel and hot-rolled coil, the spread charts between different contracts for threaded steel and hot-rolled coil, the price difference charts between different contracts for threaded steel and hot-rolled coil, the disk profit charts of different contracts for threaded steel and hot-rolled coil, the cash profit charts of different steel products, and the cost charts of electric furnaces. The data sources include Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [11][14][22]

7月21日，螺纹钢期货主力合约大幅收涨2.15%，报3224.00元/吨。 【消息面汇总】 调研数据显示，京津冀地区27家螺纹钢生产企业，上周产能利用率与前一周下降3.55%；其中：15家全 流程钢厂产能利用率较前一周下降4.53%，12家调坯钢厂产能利用率较前一周持平。 华联期货：上周螺纹钢长短流程产量均明显减少，进入淡季消费表现不佳，库存呈现小幅累库，供需基 本面偏弱，不过铁水维持高位带动原料需求，钢材成本支撑依旧较强。目前国内宏观不断释放积极信 号，持续提振市场对供需两端的改善预期，同时产业基本面尚无明显矛盾，钢材累库较为缓慢，原料走 强对成材形成支撑，短期政策预期回暖背景下，钢价呈偏强震荡运行，不过后续消费季节性走弱压力仍 存。操作上，观望为主，激进者回调短多参与。 宁证期货：中央城市工作会议落地，会议强调加快构建房地产发展新模式，会议表述未超预期。近期宏 观数据显示整体经济表现依旧强劲，后续政策刺激预期降温。工信部表示钢铁等十大重点行业稳增长工 作方案即将出台，将推动重点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能，市场情绪再度升温。螺纹供需 双降，库存止跌回升，但依旧处于历年偏低位置。淡季基本面矛盾并不明 ...