1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the previous decline, steel prices generally maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend today. Iron ore and hot-rolled coils led the decline in the black sector, while coal and coke led the rise. Steel spot trading was generally average, and terminal demand was also average [5]. - It is expected that the molten iron output will continue to decline next week, but the blast furnace profit has recovered, and the subsequent driving force for active production cuts is limited. Recently, due to the significant increase in foreign coal supply and the main contract change, coal and coke prices have dropped sharply, driving steel prices down. However, in December, coal mine supply may shrink again due to environmental protection factors, and steel mills also have restocking expectations. There is a structural shortage of iron ore PB powder, and steel costs are supported. Although the seasonal decline in building materials demand continues, manufacturing demand still provides support. Affected by the implementation of export license management for steel products, short-term exports continue to be high. Last week, coal and coke futures prices stopped falling and stabilized, but thermal coal spot prices still declined. Short-term steel prices may show a bottom - oscillating trend affected by raw materials, but due to seasonal factors, they will perform weaker than in November [5]. - The unilateral trend will maintain a range - oscillating pattern and may rebound from the bottom in the short term. For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coal ratio and the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread when the price is high. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [5][6][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3,240 yuan (unchanged), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3,120 yuan (down 10 yuan), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3,240 yuan (unchanged), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3,170 yuan (unchanged) [4] Market Judgement - **Transaction Strategy**: After the previous decline, steel prices maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend today. Iron ore and hot - rolled coils led the decline in the black sector, while coal and coke led the rise. Steel spot trading was average, and terminal demand was general. Last week, the output of the five major steel products continued to decrease, but the reduction rate slowed down. Rebar production decreased faster, while hot - rolled coil production increased due to rising profits. Molten iron output continued to decline; total steel inventory continued to decline, with social inventory decreasing and factory inventory increasing. Affected by seasonality, the apparent demand for steel accelerated to decline this week. The demand for rebar declined more than that of hot - rolled coil, and the demand for cold - rolled coil still increased supported by the manufacturing industry. It is expected that molten iron output will continue to decline next week, but blast furnace profit has recovered, and the subsequent driving force for active production cuts is limited. Recently, affected by a significant increase in foreign coal supply and main contract change, coal and coke prices dropped sharply, driving steel prices down. However, in December, coal mine supply may shrink again due to environmental protection factors, and steel mills have restocking expectations. There is a structural shortage of iron ore PB powder, and steel costs are supported. Although building materials demand declines seasonally, manufacturing demand still provides support. Affected by the implementation of export license management for steel products, short - term exports continue to be high. Last week, coal and coke futures prices stopped falling and stabilized, but thermal coal spot prices still declined. Short - term steel prices may show a bottom - oscillating trend affected by raw materials, but due to seasonal factors, they will perform weaker than in November. Continue to pay attention to the impact of macro news on the market. Subsequently, continue to monitor coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5] - **Unilateral Strategy**: Maintain a range - oscillating trend and may rebound from the bottom in the short term [6] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coal ratio and the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread when the price is high [7] - **Options Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [8] - **Important Information**: From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%; among them, residential investment was 604.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0%. From January to November 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,440.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 5.3% year - on - year. From a month - on - month perspective, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in November decreased by 1.03% [9][10] Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts including those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profits from 2021 to 2026, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [11][14][16]

Group 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook - The production of major steel products has decreased, with rebar production declining faster than hot-rolled steel, and iron output continuing to fall [6][71] - Total steel inventory is rapidly decreasing, with social inventory reducing faster than factory inventory; seasonal demand for steel is also declining, particularly for rebar [6][71] - Environmental inspections have intensified, leading to a further decline in iron output, although profits from blast furnaces are recovering, limiting the drive for active production cuts [6][71] Group 2: Supply and Demand Data - Rebar small sample production is 1.8931 million tons, down 167,700 tons; hot-rolled small sample production is 3.1431 million tons, down 47,000 tons [8][69] - Daily average iron output from 247 steel mills is 2.323 million tons, down 23,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 33.1%, down 0.4% [8][69] - Demand for rebar is 2.1698 million tons, down 109,600 tons; demand for hot-rolled steel is 3.1486 million tons, down 53,600 tons [8][69] Group 3: Macro Data and Economic Indicators - China's fixed asset investment growth rate has declined, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% for the first ten months of 2025; real estate investment has dropped by 14.7% [34] - The official manufacturing PMI for November is 49.2%, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing, while the U.S. manufacturing PMI is at 52.2, showing continued recovery [34][30] - The unemployment claims in the U.S. are at 191,000, lower than the expected 220,000, indicating some stability in the labor market [30][34] Group 4: Inventory Situation - Rebar inventory has decreased by 40,500 tons in factories and 236,200 tons in social inventory, totaling a reduction of 276,700 tons; hot-rolled inventory has increased by 19,000 tons in factories but decreased by 24,500 tons in social inventory [8][69] - Overall inventory for five major materials has decreased by 35,220 tons, with factory inventory down by 64,400 tons and social inventory down by 287,800 tons [8][69] Group 5: Price and Profit Review - The average price for rebar in Shanghai is 3,220 yuan, up 30 yuan; the average price for hot-rolled steel is 3,280 yuan, up 20 yuan [12][80] - The profit for electric arc furnaces in East China is -54.51 yuan per ton, while the profit for using valley electricity is 110 yuan per ton [90][69] - The cash profit for rebar in East China is around 1,200 yuan per ton, indicating a slight profitability for long-process steel mills [23][86]

Group 1: Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian threaded steel is 3210 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye is 3220 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3290 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3230 yuan (-10) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis Core View - The black metal sector maintained a weak and volatile trend today. Iron ore led the rise, while steel spot trading was generally weak, with speculative sentiment low. The output of five major steel products increased this week, with a decrease in threaded steel output due to profit losses and an increase in hot-rolled coil output. The inventory reduction speed of steel products slowed down, the social inventory reduction speed accelerated, and the apparent demand for steel products also declined slightly. It is expected that the molten iron output will continue to decline this week, squeezing raw materials. Recently, coking coal and coke prices have accelerated their decline, while steel and ore prices have risen. The market has already priced in the fourth round of coke price cuts, but the downside space for coking coal is limited. There is a structural shortage of iron ore PB powder, providing cost support for steel products. Recently, infrastructure demand has increased, and the apparent demand for steel products has continued to improve. Therefore, the short-term steel price will still follow the fundamentals and maintain a volatile trend, with the overall range-bound pattern persisting. More factors are needed to break the situation. [5] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a range-bound trend [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to hold the long position of the hot-rolled coil - threaded steel spread [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Important Information - The overall output of five major steel products increased by 5800 tons this week. The factory inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 10200 tons week-on-week, the social inventory decreased by 22090 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 32290 tons [9] - According to the latest production schedule report of three major white goods released by Industrial Online, the total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in December 2025 is 30.18 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1%. Specifically, the production volume of household air conditioners in December is 14.11 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 22.3%; the production volume of refrigerators is 8.13 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%; and the production volume of washing machines is 7.94 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% [9][10] Group 3: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the summary price charts of threaded steel and hot-rolled coil, the basis charts of different contracts for threaded steel and hot-rolled coil, the spread charts between different contracts for threaded steel and hot-rolled coil, the price difference charts between different contracts for threaded steel and hot-rolled coil, the disk profit charts of different contracts for threaded steel and hot-rolled coil, the cash profit charts of different steel products, and the cost charts of electric furnaces. The data sources include Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [11][14][22]

Core Viewpoint - The rebar futures market shows a significant increase, with the main contract rising by 2.15% to 3224.00 CNY/ton, despite a decline in production and demand indicators in the previous week [1]. Group 1: Production and Demand - In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the capacity utilization rate of 27 rebar production enterprises decreased by 3.55% compared to the previous week, with full-process steel mills down by 4.53% and billet mills remaining stable [2]. - Rebar production reached 2.09 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons or 3.51% from the previous week, while apparent demand fell to 2.06 million tons, down by 153,300 tons or 6.92% [2]. Group 2: Profitability and Market Sentiment - As of July 21, the profit margin for steel mills on rebar was -57.64 CNY/ton, a decrease of 38.4 CNY from the previous trading day, indicating pressure on profitability [3]. - Analysts from Hualian Futures noted a significant reduction in both long and short process production, with weak seasonal demand and slight inventory accumulation, suggesting a weak supply-demand balance [4]. - Ningzheng Futures highlighted that the central urban work conference emphasized accelerating the construction of a new model for real estate development, which did not exceed expectations, but overall economic performance remains strong, supporting market sentiment [4].