Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel and ore markets are expected to continue their oscillatory trends. For steel, the supply - demand situation is weak, and for ore, various factors lead to an expected oscillatory trend. A short - term trading strategy of short - term operations is recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Production and Inventory**: The production of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and the five major steel products increased this period. The inventory of all decreased, with rebar's inventory reduction being more significant and hot - rolled coil's less so. The current social inventory of hot - rolled coil is still high. The total supply of the five major steel products was 849.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.53 million tons (1.9% increase). The total inventory was 1433.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 44.25 million tons (3% decrease). The weekly consumption was 894.16 million tons, with building material consumption increasing by 5.3% and plate consumption increasing by 3.2% week - on - week [5][11]. - **Profitability and Cost**: Electric - arc furnace steel is still at a loss. The steel mill profitability rate continued to decline to 37.66%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3%. The cost side has strong support [5]. - **Price Forecast**: It is expected that rebar and hot - rolled coil will continue to oscillate. The resistance level of the rebar main contract is 3230, and the support level is 3000. The resistance level of hot - rolled coil is 3450, and the support level is 3200 [5]. Iron Ore - **Production and Inventory**: The daily pig iron output this week was 2.3628 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 million tons, and it is expected to fall below 2.3 million tons. The iron ore port inventory at 45 ports was 150.54 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 750,000 tons. The domestic iron ore arrival is low, but the shipment is active. The overseas port inventory is at the highest level since the fourth quarter. Mysteel statistics show that the daily average fine powder output of 186 domestic mining enterprises was 475,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 960,000 tons. The mining fine powder inventory was 758,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 162,000 tons [5][15]. - **Price Forecast**: It is expected that iron ore will continue to oscillate. The resistance level of the main 2601 contract is 833, and the support level is 750 [5]. Important News - On November 19, 2025, the mobilization meeting for the inspection of Beijing by the First Central Ecological and Environmental Protection Inspection Team was held, and all 10 inspection teams of the fifth batch of the third round achieved inspection entry [6]. - According to the latest production schedule data from Aowei Cloud Network, the domestic sales production schedule of air conditioners in December is 4.822 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%; the export production schedule is 9.074 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2% [6]. - The National Bureau of Statistics shows that China's automobile production in October was 3.279 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.2% [6]. - According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in October 2025, China exported 5.97 million tons of steel plates, a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%; from January to October, the cumulative export was 60.45 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5% [6]. - In October 2025, the national crude steel production was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%, with a daily output of 2.3226 million tons/day, a month - on - month decrease of 5.2%; pig iron production was 65.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%, with a daily output of 2.1145 million tons/day, a month - on - month decrease of 4%; steel production was 118.64 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%, with a daily output of 3.8271 million tons/day, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6%. From January to October, the cumulative national crude steel production was 818 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.6904 million tons; pig iron production was 711 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.34 million tons; steel production was 1.218 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%, with a cumulative daily output of 4.0052 million tons [6]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment stated that after approval by the Party Central Committee and the State Council, the fifth batch of the third - round central ecological and environmental protection inspections have been fully launched. Routine inspections will be carried out on Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, and multiple central enterprises such as Ansteel Group Co., Ltd., China Baowu Steel Group Co., Ltd., and China National Coal Group Co., Ltd., with an inspection entry period of one month [6].

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 预计钢矿仍维持震荡走势 2025年11月14日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：纪晓云 联系方式：010-56711796 期货从业资格证号：F3066027 期货交易咨询号：Z0011402 钢矿观点 前10月房地产投资增速继续下滑，房地产用钢指标——房屋新开工、施工和竣工指标继续下降。狭义基建 投资增速为-0.1%，2021年以来首次降为负值。制造业投资增速降为2.7%，为2021年以来的最低水平。前 10月粗钢产量同比下降，且降幅扩大。生铁产量同比下降1.8%，粗钢产量继续调控。本期螺纹供给继续下 降，库存持续去化。热卷供给增加，库存小幅下降。五大钢材产量和库存均下降，钢材需求淡季。本期铁 水日产236.88万吨，环比增加2.66万吨。预计大概率降至230万吨以下。钢厂盈利较低，主动性复产积极 性不足。钢厂盈利欠佳，成本端支撑较强。总体看，预计钢矿继续维持震荡区间。螺纹主力合约压力位 3230，支撑位3000。热卷压力位3450，支撑位3200。铁矿主力2601合约压力位833，支撑位750。 【交易策略】 维持钢矿短期震荡走势的判断。建议短线 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - Steel and ore are expected to show a short - term oscillating trend. For rebar and hot - rolled coils, it's difficult to reach new highs in the short term, and the market will mainly oscillate. For iron ore, although the daily pig iron output has decreased, it remains at a relatively high level above 2.4 million tons, which restricts the downside space [5]. - Short - term trading is recommended as the market is in a short - term oscillating state [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel and Ore Market Conditions - Rebar and hot - rolled coils: The main contracts are shifting positions. Due to high - temperature and heavy - rain weather, demand is still weak. According to Zhaogang.com data, this week, the production and apparent demand of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased, while inventory increased, with obvious restocking. The RB2510 contract has a pressure level of 3300 and a support level of 3150. The support level for hot - rolled coils is 3300, and the pressure level is 3550. The main stainless - steel contract has a pressure level of 13200 and a support level of 12650 [5]. - Iron ore: The daily pig iron output this week was 2.4032 million tons, a decrease of 0.0039 million tons compared to the previous week. Although it decreased, it remains above 2.4 million tons, restricting the downside space. The pressure level for the main iron - ore contract has moved down to 835, and the support level is 750 [5]. Important News - The US President Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on goods from India, making the total tariff rate reach 50%, and the new 25% tariff will take effect in 21 days [13]. - In late July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.8 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons, a 7.4% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period; 20.41 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.856 million tons, a 4.5% decrease in daily output; and 23 million tons of steel products, with an average daily output of 2.091 million tons, a 0.5% increase in daily output [13]. - The Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Natural Resources issued the "New Round of Rural Road Improvement Action Plan", aiming to complete the reconstruction and construction of 300,000 kilometers of rural roads nationwide by 2027 [13]. - In late July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 14.78 million tons, a decrease of 0.88 million tons compared to the previous ten - day period, a 5.6% decrease; an increase of 2.41 million tons compared to the beginning of the year, a 19.5% increase; a decrease of 0.67 million tons compared to the same ten - day period of the previous month, a 4.3% decrease; a decrease of 1.27 million tons compared to the same ten - day period of last year, a 7.9% decrease; and an increase of 0.29 million tons compared to the same ten - day period of the year before last, a 2.0% increase [13]. - The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing announced that the global manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating that the recovery momentum of the global manufacturing industry weakened compared to the previous month and continued to operate weakly [13]. - Seven departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - type Industrialization", supporting mining enterprises to increase reserves and production of important minerals and improve the supply guarantee capacity of strategic resources [14]. - On July 30, the 11th Council (Expanded) Meeting of the 6th China Iron and Steel Association was held in Beijing, focusing on in - depth discussions around "controlling production capacity, combating involution, strengthening cooperation, and promoting transformation" [14]. Steel Supply and Inventory - This week, the steel supply decreased slightly. The total steel supply was 8.6921 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0179 million tons; the total inventory was 13.7536 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.2347 million tons [15][16]. - Rebar: This week, the supply was 2.2118 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1012 million tons; the total inventory was 5.6668 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1039 million tons, a decrease rate of 0.9%; the apparent consumption was 2.1658 million tons, a 5.0% increase compared to the previous period. The apparent demand increased by 0.0738 million tons to 2.1079 million tons [18]. - Hot - rolled coils: This week, the supply was 3.1489 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.079 million tons; the total inventory increased by 0.0868 million tons to 3.5663 million tons; the apparent demand decreased by 0.1379 million tons to 3.0621 million tons [18]. - Rebar inventory contradiction is not prominent. This week, rebar's factory inventory, social inventory, and total inventory increased. For hot - rolled coils, the factory inventory decreased, while the social inventory and total inventory increased, showing restocking behavior [20][21]. Pig Iron and Iron Ore - This week, the daily pig iron output was 2.4032 million tons, a decrease of 0.0039 million tons compared to the previous week. Although it decreased, it remains at a relatively high level above 2.4 million tons, restricting the downside space of iron ore [24].