1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The news from Indonesia has caused new disturbances in the nickel market, and the departure of funds before the holiday restricts the price elasticity of nickel. In the stainless - steel market, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support has shifted the price center upwards [1]. - The trend strength of nickel and stainless steel is both rated as 1, indicating a neutral outlook [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 133,350, down 1,170 from the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 13,740, up 5 from the previous day [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 281,436, a decrease of 135,669 from the previous day. The trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 140,567, a decrease of 61,676 from the previous day [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: - The price of 1 imported nickel is 134,000, down 600 from the previous day. The Russian nickel premium is - 100, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1,041, up 1 from the previous day. The price difference between nickel plate and high - nickel iron is 299, down 7 from the previous day [1]. - The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 14,100, unchanged from the previous day. The price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taiyuan Iron and Steel/Zhangpu is 14,650, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,950, unchanged from the previous day. The nickel sulfate premium is 2,470, up 132 from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [2]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levying royalties [2]. - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [4]. - Some Indonesian mines are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and the final fine may be lower [4]. - Indonesia will adjust the 2026 nickel production quota according to industry demand, with the production likely to be around 250 - 260 million tons [4]. - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is in negotiation with the KPPU [4]. - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way from the Philippines to Yangjiang, China [5]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has started approving the 2026 mining work plans and budgets (RKAB) [5]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months due to the rebound of nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions [5]. - Indonesia's BKPM disclosed that ITSS, a subsidiary of Tsingshan Holding Group, has never submitted an investment activity report, and its actual investment amount is not registered [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is reintroducing export license management for certain steel products starting January 1, 2026, marking a significant shift in steel export regulation after 16 years of deregulation [1][2]. Group 1: Export License Management - The export license management will cover 300 customs commodity codes, encompassing the entire steel industry chain from raw materials to finished products [1]. - This initiative aims to guide the standardized export of steel products, promoting high-quality development in the steel industry and maintaining global supply-demand balance [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Challenges and Responses - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, has emphasized the need to strengthen steel product export management to optimize the export product structure [2]. - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's steel exports reached 107.7 million tons, a 6.7% increase year-on-year, with an expected annual total of 115 million tons, surpassing the historical high of 112 million tons in 2015 [2]. - Despite the growth in export volume, there are structural issues, such as declining export prices and a surge in low-value-added primary product exports, which contradict the long-term goals of high-quality development [2][3]. Group 3: Price and Trade Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, steel exports amounted to 58.15 million tons, a 9.2% year-on-year increase, but the average export price fell by 10.3% to $699.3 per ton, leading to a 2.0% decrease in export value to $40.66 billion [3]. - The significant increase in steel billet exports, which tripled to 5.89 million tons, alongside a 15.3% drop in export prices, indicates that some companies are still engaged in price competition at a basic level [3]. Group 4: Trade Friction and Market Strategy - The steel industry has faced a record number of trade friction cases, with over 50 anti-dumping cases since 2024, affecting products like hot-rolled sheets and medium-thick plates, with tariffs as high as 38.02% imposed by countries such as Vietnam and India [3]. - The export license management is expected to compel companies to adjust their product structures and optimize export market strategies, reducing reliance on traditional markets with high anti-dumping duties and exploring emerging markets in Africa and Latin America [3]. Group 5: Recommendations for Companies - Companies are advised to familiarize themselves with the specific product catalog under management and prepare necessary export contract and quality inspection documents ahead of time [4]. - There is a call for increased R&D investment to develop high-end products such as high-performance bearing steel and gear steel, with some leading domestic companies already exporting "green steel" products that achieve significant carbon reductions [4].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced the implementation of export license management for certain steel products [3][4] - The adjustment to the "Export License Management Goods Directory (2025)" includes the addition of specific steel products [3] - Exporters of the listed goods must apply for export licenses with contracts and quality inspection certificates from manufacturers [3] Group 2 - Export licenses will be issued by provincial commerce departments or designated municipal authorities, with specific procedures for state-owned enterprises [3] - The new regulations will take effect on January 1, 2026 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs of China announced the implementation of export license management for certain steel products starting January 1, 2026 [1] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The announcement is based on the Foreign Trade Law of the People's Republic of China and related regulations, leading to adjustments in the "Export License Management Goods Directory (2025)" to include certain steel products [1] - Exporters of the specified steel products will be required to obtain export licenses by providing export contracts and product quality inspection certificates issued by manufacturers [1]