卓创资讯钢铁事业部长材产业链分析师李德儒在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，短期来看，政策精 准限制钢坯等低附加值产品，直接冲击"以量补价"模式，低附加值部分出口在政策实施后预计锐减。企 业出口方面增加了合规成本，相关质量要求促使企业转向高附加值产品以维持竞争力，从而对生产经营 者带来一定压力。长远来看，该政策将促进钢铁行业从规模扩张向高质量发展进行转型。可以预见，企 业为维持竞争力，会更加重视开发高附加值产品，推动技术创新。 日前，商务部、海关总署发布公告，依据《中华人民共和国对外贸易法》《中华人民共和国货物进出口 管理条例》《货物出口许可证管理办法》等法律、行政法规和规章，决定对《出口许可证管理货物目录 （2025年）》进行调整，将部分钢铁产品纳入目录，自2026年1月1日起执行。 受访的企业和行业人士表示，在当前我国钢铁出口规模持续扩大的背景下，上述政策有助于驱动产业升 级迭代。 据海关总署统计数据，2025年前11个月，我国钢材出口量达1.077亿吨，同比增长6.7%。上海钢联智数 产品研发部研究员陈韫芝对《证券日报》记者表示，这充分体现了我国钢铁工业深度融入全球市场，在 国际供应链中地位日益提升的积极 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is reintroducing export license management for certain steel products starting January 1, 2026, marking a significant shift in steel export regulation after 16 years of deregulation [2][12]. Group 1: Policy Background - The policy adjustment is a necessary response to multiple challenges facing the steel industry, including a projected steel export volume of 115 million tons for 2025, a 6.7% year-on-year increase, despite a 10.3% drop in average export prices [3][13]. - The steel industry has faced a record high of over 50 anti-dumping cases since 2024, with countries like Vietnam and India imposing tariffs as high as 38.02% on Chinese products [3][13]. - The surge in low-value primary product exports, such as 5.89 million tons of steel billets in the first half of 2025, reflects a concerning trend of "volume over price" that increases energy consumption and carbon emissions [4][3]. Group 2: Policy Content - The export license management will cover 300 customs product codes, spanning the entire steel industry chain from raw materials to finished products [5][14]. - Specific products include non-alloy pig iron, recycled steel raw materials, and hot-rolled coils, with a focus on compliance with national standards for recycled materials [6][15]. - The application process requires exporters to provide contracts and quality inspection certificates, enhancing the quality reputation of Chinese steel products [6][15]. Group 3: Policy Connection - The announcement is part of a broader framework of recent policies aimed at strengthening steel product export management and optimizing product structure [7][16]. - The policy aligns with the "Steel Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" issued by multiple government departments, emphasizing the need for improved export management [7][16]. Group 4: Industry Significance - The policy aims to curb the chaotic export of low-value products, pushing companies to adjust their product structures and reduce reliance on price competition [8][17]. - It will help companies navigate international trade barriers by encouraging diversification into emerging markets like Africa and Latin America [8][17]. - The management will also facilitate the green transition of the steel industry, coinciding with the introduction of carbon trading and border adjustment mechanisms in the coming years [8][17]. Group 5: Recommendations for Companies - Companies are encouraged to adapt proactively to the new policy, preparing necessary documentation and understanding the specific product categories affected [9][18]. - Increased investment in R&D for high-end products and the adoption of "green steel" practices are recommended to enhance competitiveness [10][18]. - Establishing a robust quality management system is crucial, as compliance with quality inspection requirements will be a key factor in maintaining export capabilities [10][18].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced the implementation of export license management for certain steel products starting January 1, 2026, marking a new phase in China's steel export management after a 16-year hiatus since 2009 [1][2]. Group 1: Current Challenges in the Steel Industry - China's steel export data shows a facade of prosperity, with 2025 H1 steel exports reaching 58.15 million tons, a 9.2% year-on-year increase, while the average export price fell to $699.3 per ton, a 10.3% decline, leading to a total export value of $40.66 billion, down 2.0% year-on-year [3]. - The surge in low-value primary product exports and the increase in trade friction cases indicate structural contradictions within the industry, which are exacerbated by a "volume compensates for price" export model that increases energy consumption and carbon emissions [3]. Group 2: Positive Implications of Export License Management - The export license management policy is expected to curb the chaotic export of low-value products, as it will raise compliance costs for such exports, compelling companies to adjust their product structures [2][3]. - This policy will help companies navigate international trade barriers by encouraging them to optimize their export market strategies and reduce reliance on traditional markets with high anti-dumping duties, while exploring emerging markets in Africa and Latin America [2][3]. - The management will also promote green transformation within the industry, coinciding with the steel sector's inclusion in the national carbon emissions trading market and the upcoming EU carbon border adjustment mechanism [2][3]. Group 3: Recommendations for Steel Companies - Companies are advised to familiarize themselves with the specific product catalog under management and prepare necessary export contracts and quality inspection certificates ahead of time [4]. - From December 15, 2025, companies can apply for export licenses for 2026, and early planning is encouraged [4]. - Increased investment in R&D for high-performance products such as bearing steel, gear steel, and high-temperature alloys is recommended, with some leading domestic companies already exporting "green steel" products that achieve a 50% reduction in carbon emissions per ton through full-process carbon verification [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is reintroducing export license management for certain steel products starting January 1, 2026, marking a significant shift in steel export regulation after 16 years of deregulation, aimed at promoting high-quality development in the steel industry and maintaining global trade balance [1][2]. Group 1: Export License Management - The new export license management will cover 300 customs product codes, encompassing the entire steel industry chain from raw materials to finished products [1]. - This policy is a response to the challenges faced by the steel industry, including structural contradictions in export volumes and prices, and aims to optimize the export product structure [2][3]. Group 2: Export Volume and Pricing - In the first eleven months of 2025, China's steel exports reached 107.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with an expected total export volume of 115 million tons for the year, surpassing the historical high of 112 million tons in 2015 [2]. - Despite the increase in export volume, there is a notable decline in export prices, with the average export price dropping by 10.3% to $699.3 per ton in the first half of 2025 [3]. Group 3: Trade Friction and Market Strategy - The steel industry has faced over 50 anti-dumping cases since 2024, with countries like Vietnam, India, and South Korea imposing anti-dumping duties as high as 38.02% on Chinese steel products [3]. - The export license management is expected to compel companies to adjust their product structures and reduce reliance on traditional markets with high anti-dumping duties, while exploring emerging markets in Africa and Latin America [3]. Group 4: Recommendations for Companies - Companies are advised to familiarize themselves with the specific products under the new management and prepare necessary documentation for export licenses starting December 15, 2025 [4]. - There is a push for increased R&D investment in high-end steel products, with some leading companies already exporting "green steel" products that significantly reduce carbon emissions [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is reintroducing export license management for certain steel products starting January 1, 2026, marking a significant shift in steel export regulation after 16 years of deregulation [1][2]. Group 1: Export License Management - The export license management will cover 300 customs commodity codes, encompassing the entire steel industry chain from raw materials to finished products [1]. - This initiative aims to guide the standardized export of steel products, promoting high-quality development in the steel industry and maintaining global supply-demand balance [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Challenges and Responses - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, has emphasized the need to strengthen steel product export management to optimize the export product structure [2]. - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's steel exports reached 107.7 million tons, a 6.7% increase year-on-year, with an expected annual total of 115 million tons, surpassing the historical high of 112 million tons in 2015 [2]. - Despite the growth in export volume, there are structural issues, such as declining export prices and a surge in low-value-added primary product exports, which contradict the long-term goals of high-quality development [2][3]. Group 3: Price and Trade Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, steel exports amounted to 58.15 million tons, a 9.2% year-on-year increase, but the average export price fell by 10.3% to $699.3 per ton, leading to a 2.0% decrease in export value to $40.66 billion [3]. - The significant increase in steel billet exports, which tripled to 5.89 million tons, alongside a 15.3% drop in export prices, indicates that some companies are still engaged in price competition at a basic level [3]. Group 4: Trade Friction and Market Strategy - The steel industry has faced a record number of trade friction cases, with over 50 anti-dumping cases since 2024, affecting products like hot-rolled sheets and medium-thick plates, with tariffs as high as 38.02% imposed by countries such as Vietnam and India [3]. - The export license management is expected to compel companies to adjust their product structures and optimize export market strategies, reducing reliance on traditional markets with high anti-dumping duties and exploring emerging markets in Africa and Latin America [3]. Group 5: Recommendations for Companies - Companies are advised to familiarize themselves with the specific product catalog under management and prepare necessary export contract and quality inspection documents ahead of time [4]. - There is a call for increased R&D investment to develop high-end products such as high-performance bearing steel and gear steel, with some leading domestic companies already exporting "green steel" products that achieve significant carbon reductions [4].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to experience a reduction in production capacity and an improvement in quality, leading to stabilization in prices and profits in 2026 [1] Group 1: Supply - A new capacity replacement policy is set to be implemented, which is expected to continue reducing crude steel production in 2026 [6] - The capacity replacement policy will increase the reduction ratio in non-key areas to at least 1.5:1, enhancing long-term capacity constraints [14][18] - The overall crude steel production is anticipated to decrease year-on-year due to differentiated production restrictions and proactive production control by enterprises [6][28] Group 2: Demand - Investment stability and domestic demand expansion are expected to lead to a recovery in steel demand in 2026 [6] - The construction sector is projected to see a recovery in fixed asset investment, supported by policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [36] - Manufacturing sectors such as automotive, machinery, and home appliances are expected to maintain growth in steel demand due to supportive policies [6][57] Group 3: Costs - Steel cost pressures are expected to continue easing in 2026, with iron ore supply slightly increasing and demand stabilizing [6][61] - The global iron ore supply is projected to see a slight increase, with the four major mining companies expected to have a production growth rate of about 1.8% in 2026 [66] - The overall balance between iron ore supply and demand is expected to remain weak, with prices anticipated to fluctuate downward [6][61] Group 4: Prices and Profits - The reduction in production and improvement in quality are expected to help stabilize steel prices and profits in 2026 [6] - Demand for flat steel is expected to remain stronger than for long steel, with policies aimed at further tapping into consumption potential [6] - The anticipated decline in crude steel production, primarily driven by loss-making enterprises and policy-induced reductions, will contribute to a mild improvement in the steel supply-demand landscape [6] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the ordinary steel sector and those involved in restructuring and integration, such as Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel [6] - In the special steel sector, high-performance steel products are encouraged, with companies like Jiuli Special Materials and Yongjin Co. expected to benefit from policy support [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is crucial for the national economy, facing significant challenges due to global economic changes and carbon neutrality goals, prompting the release of a growth plan for 2025-2026 aimed at enhancing quality and reasonable growth in the sector [1][3]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Balance - In the first three quarters of this year, China's steel industry reported a total profit of 97.34 billion yuan, marking a shift from losses to profits year-on-year [2]. - Despite a slight recovery in profitability this year, the overall growth foundation remains unstable due to complex external conditions and a significant portion of the industry expected to incur losses in 2024 [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology highlights an imbalance between excessive supply and insufficient effective demand as a major issue affecting the industry's quality and efficiency [2]. Group 2: Effective Supply Enhancement - China accounts for approximately 53% of global crude steel production, yet the industry's profit margin is only 0.4% [4]. - The growth plan emphasizes the need for orderly exit of inefficient production capacity and precise control of capacity and output to promote dynamic supply-demand balance [4]. - The plan calls for the implementation of policies to support advanced enterprises while forcing the exit of outdated capacities, thereby enhancing the overall quality and efficiency of supply [4][5]. Group 3: Expanding Demand - The development of high-performance steel products, such as ultra-thin silicon steel, is crucial for meeting the demands of emerging industries like robotics and renewable energy [6][7]. - The growth plan aims to enhance the supply capacity of high-end products by focusing on key materials required for advanced equipment and core components, fostering collaboration among steel enterprises, upstream and downstream companies, and research institutions [7]. - The transition towards high-end, green, and intelligent steel production is expected to improve the resilience and safety of the industry supply chain [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, has released a plan for the steel industry aimed at achieving an average annual growth of around 4% in value-added from 2025 to 2026, focusing on governance, supply optimization, transformation promotion, consumption expansion, and cooperation enhancement [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The steel industry is facing significant downward pressure, with steel consumption peaking and demand continuously declining, leading to a micro-profit state and increasing operational pressures for enterprises [1][2]. - The current imbalance between excessive supply and insufficient effective demand is identified as the main contradiction affecting the quality and efficiency of industry development [1][2]. Group 2: Proposed Measures - The plan outlines 10 specific measures across five areas, including precise control of production capacity and output, enhancing industry management, and promoting dynamic balance between supply and demand [2][3]. - Emphasis is placed on improving supply quality through technological innovation, enhancing the supply capacity of high-end products, and stabilizing raw material supply [2][3]. Group 3: Consumption and Internationalization - The plan aims to stimulate effective consumption by exploring steel application demands and promoting collaboration in key steel usage sectors such as shipbuilding [3]. - It also includes measures for updating processes and equipment, accelerating digital transformation, and enhancing international development levels through improved export management [3]. Group 4: Supportive Policies - The plan specifies various supportive measures, including the use of special loans for technological innovation and transformation, as well as a capacity warning mechanism to guide market expectations [3].

Core Viewpoint - The "Steel Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims to promote effective quality improvement and reasonable quantity growth in the steel industry, focusing on structural adjustment and high-quality development [1] Group 1: Overall Goals - The plan sets an annual growth target of approximately 4% for the industry's added value, emphasizing the role of the steel industry as a stabilizing pillar [1] - It encourages the industry to move away from extensive capacity and scale expansion, promoting market supply-demand balance, optimizing industrial structure, and enhancing supply quality and efficiency [1] Group 2: Key Measures - The plan outlines five areas of action with ten specific measures, including strengthening industry management, enhancing technological innovation, expanding effective investment, broadening market demand, and deepening open cooperation [1] - In terms of industry management, the plan emphasizes precise control of capacity and output, revising capacity replacement implementation methods, and supporting low-carbon steelmaking processes [1] Group 3: High-End Product Supply - The plan focuses on enhancing the supply capacity of high-end products, particularly in high-performance bearing steel, gear steel, and high-temperature alloys, through collaboration among steel enterprises, upstream and downstream companies, universities, and research institutions [2] - It aims to leverage key platforms in shipbuilding and ultra-supercritical materials to accelerate product application validation and iterative upgrades [2] Group 4: Market Demand Expansion - The plan encourages deepening cooperation between the steel industry and key sectors such as shipbuilding, promoting long-term stable cooperation agreements to maintain the stability of the industrial chain [2] Group 5: Open Cooperation - The plan emphasizes the need to strengthen the management of steel product exports to maintain competitive order in the export market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The "Steel Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims to promote effective quality improvement and reasonable quantity growth in the steel industry, focusing on structural adjustment and high-quality development [1][2]. Group 1: Overall Goals - The plan sets an annual growth target of approximately 4% for the industry's added value, emphasizing the role of the steel industry as a "ballast" for the economy [1]. - It aims to eliminate extensive production capacity and scale expansion thinking, focusing on market supply-demand balance, optimizing industrial structure, and improving supply quality and efficiency [1]. Group 2: Key Measures - Five areas of work measures are outlined: strengthening industry management, enhancing technological innovation, expanding effective investment, broadening market demand, and deepening open cooperation [1]. - In industry management, the plan emphasizes precise control of capacity and output, revising capacity replacement methods, and supporting low-carbon steelmaking processes [1]. Group 3: High-End Product Supply - The plan requires enhancing the supply capacity of high-end products, focusing on key steel materials needed for high-end equipment and core components [2]. - It encourages collaboration among steel enterprises, upstream and downstream companies, universities, and research institutions for coordinated efforts in the industrial chain [2]. Group 4: Market Demand Expansion - The plan proposes deepening cooperation between steel and key steel-consuming sectors, such as shipbuilding, by signing long-term stable cooperation agreements to maintain industry chain stability [2]. Group 5: Open Cooperation - The plan emphasizes strengthening the management of steel product exports to maintain competitive order in the export market [3].