1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The news from Indonesia has caused new disturbances in the nickel market, and the departure of funds before the holiday restricts the price elasticity of nickel. In the stainless - steel market, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support has shifted the price center upwards [1]. - The trend strength of nickel and stainless steel is both rated as 1, indicating a neutral outlook [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 133,350, down 1,170 from the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 13,740, up 5 from the previous day [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 281,436, a decrease of 135,669 from the previous day. The trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 140,567, a decrease of 61,676 from the previous day [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: - The price of 1 imported nickel is 134,000, down 600 from the previous day. The Russian nickel premium is - 100, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1,041, up 1 from the previous day. The price difference between nickel plate and high - nickel iron is 299, down 7 from the previous day [1]. - The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 14,100, unchanged from the previous day. The price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taiyuan Iron and Steel/Zhangpu is 14,650, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,950, unchanged from the previous day. The nickel sulfate premium is 2,470, up 132 from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [2]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levying royalties [2]. - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [4]. - Some Indonesian mines are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and the final fine may be lower [4]. - Indonesia will adjust the 2026 nickel production quota according to industry demand, with the production likely to be around 250 - 260 million tons [4]. - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is in negotiation with the KPPU [4]. - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way from the Philippines to Yangjiang, China [5]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has started approving the 2026 mining work plans and budgets (RKAB) [5]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months due to the rebound of nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions [5]. - Indonesia's BKPM disclosed that ITSS, a subsidiary of Tsingshan Holding Group, has never submitted an investment activity report, and its actual investment amount is not registered [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current fundamentals of nickel show no significant marginal improvement, with overall supply and demand expected to remain loose in January and high visible inventories putting downward pressure on prices. However, Indonesia's potential revision of the nickel ore domestic trade pricing method and reduction of the 2026 nickel ore quota have led to significant adjustments in the market's expectations of nickel cost and balance, driving up nickel prices. The short - term price is expected to remain strong, but attention should be paid to the actual implementation of relevant policies[2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons On January 6, 2026, the Shanghai nickel contract rose sharply, hitting the daily limit of 8% to 147,720 yuan per ton at night. LME nickel also soared, with an intraday increase of over 10%, the largest in three years. The sharp rise in nickel prices is mainly supported by the market's expectation of tightened policies in Indonesia, along with the upward movement of the non - ferrous metals sector and the accelerated industrialization of sodium - ion batteries, which enhances the long - term demand outlook for nickel. According to SMM on January 5, Indonesia will control the 2026 mineral quota through RKAB to synchronize supply with downstream demand, with a nickel production target of about 290 million tons[2]. Fundamental Situation On the supply side, domestic refined nickel production increased again in December, and the overall production of MHP, matte, and NPI in Indonesia remained high in December, so there is still pressure on the supply side. On the demand side, it has entered the traditional consumption off - season. Stainless steel production increased month - on - month due to profit recovery, but the electroplating and alloy sectors are expected to decline. The overall fundamentals remain in surplus, with LME nickel inventory increasing by 192 tons to 255,500 tons and SHFE nickel inventory increasing by 964 tons to 39,300 tons, and the overall visible inventory remains at a high level[3]. Summary and Strategy The current fundamentals of nickel have not improved significantly, and the supply - demand situation in January is expected to remain loose, with high visible inventories suppressing prices. The market's expectations of nickel cost and balance have been adjusted due to Indonesia's policies, pushing up nickel prices. In the future, continuous attention should be paid to the actual implementation of relevant policies. In terms of strategy, the market has strong expectations for Indonesia's nickel policies, and the upward movement of the non - ferrous metals sector also supports nickel prices. It is expected that the short - term price will remain strong, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips[4].

Group 1 - Nickel prices have shown a strong upward trend, with the main contract rising over 3% [1] - Indonesia announced plans to adjust and reduce nickel ore quotas to 250 million by 2026, along with a revision of the mineral pricing formula at the beginning of 2026 [1] - The recent price rebound in nickel is attributed to market speculation and increased investment interest in metals [1]