21世纪经济报道记者冉黎黎 钢铁产业正在打响一场"控产能"之战。 近日，冶金工业规划研究院预测，到2026年钢材需求量约为8亿吨，同比下降1.0%。这一预测降幅超出 此前市场预期，如何促进行业供需平衡？在此之前，我国已针对钢铁产业进行了多轮产能调整，但供需 矛盾至今仍未彻底解决，问题出在哪里？ 有受访专家指出，其核心原因可以归结为"政策-市场-结构"三重错位：一是政策执行被"稀释"；二是需 求萎缩速度超过产能压缩速度；三是行业结构"小、散、低"固化。 据21世纪经济报道记者不完全统计，已有10个省份在"十五五"规划建议中对钢铁产业的发展进行了部 署，其中，产业"升级"是一大高频词。从钢铁第一大省河北来看，其在"十五五"规划建议中提到，推动 重点产业转型升级，加快实现钢铁从原料级向材料级转变，提高河北钢铁在全球产业分工中的竞争力。 展望钢铁产业的"十五五"，冶金工业规划研究院党委书记、院长肖邦国对21世纪经济报道记者表示，钢 铁行业目前大的产能布局已基本结束，国家政策也对新布局钢铁产能项目设置有一定门槛。下一步，政 府部门可能会考虑用差别化政策推动一批落后低效产能退出，几乎所有政策都是差别化、分等分级的， 从而 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic steel market in China is experiencing a downward trend, with prices showing signs of weakness due to seasonal demand decline and overall market conditions [1][12]. Group 1: Steel Price Index Trends - In October 2025, the average CSPI (China Steel Price Index) was 91.92 points, a decrease of 1.26 points or 1.35% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decline of 9.10 points or 9.01% [2][8]. - The long product index averaged 92.23 points, down 1.49 points or 1.58% month-on-month, and down 13.04 points or 12.39% year-on-year [4][8]. - The plate index averaged 91.17 points, down 1.15 points or 1.25% month-on-month, and down 6.80 points or 6.94% year-on-year [4][8]. Group 2: Price Changes by Product Type - In October, most monitored steel products saw price declines, with hot-rolled coil prices dropping by 63 CNY/ton, while seamless pipe prices fell by 25 CNY/ton [9][10]. - The average price of rebar was 3098 CNY/ton, down 51 CNY/ton from the previous month, reflecting a decrease of 1.46% [9][10]. - The average price of galvanized sheet was 4166 CNY/ton, down 44 CNY/ton, indicating a decline of 1.03% [9][10]. Group 3: Regional Price Index Variations - In October 2025, all six major regions in China saw a month-on-month decline in the CSPI, with the Central South region experiencing the largest drop of 1.72% [14][16]. - The average rebar price index in the Western region was 3110 CNY/ton, down 82 CNY/ton or 2.58% from the previous month [14][16]. Group 4: Investment and Economic Indicators - From January to October 2025, fixed asset investment in China was 408914 billion CNY, down 1.7% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment showing a negative growth for the first time this year [17][20]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 2.7%, but the growth rate slowed compared to previous months, indicating weakening demand in the steel sector [17][20]. - The real estate sector continued to show signs of weakness, with cumulative investment down 14.7% year-on-year, exacerbating the oversupply pressure in the steel market [19][20]. Group 5: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the first ten months of 2025, crude steel production was 81787 million tons, down 3.9% year-on-year, while apparent consumption fell by 6.5% [21][22]. - The average price of major raw materials increased, with coking coal rising by 3.82%, providing some support to steel prices [22][23]. - The steel export volume in October was 978.2 million tons, a decrease of 6.5% from the previous month, indicating pressure from global market conditions [43][44]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The steel industry is expected to face increased supply-demand imbalance as the traditional off-season approaches, necessitating self-discipline in production to stabilize prices [44]. - The government is likely to implement policies to control crude steel production, aiming to alleviate the oversupply issue and improve market conditions [39][40].

智通财经APP获悉，由于唐山钢厂将在月底陆续对高炉按要求进行停产检修，以及中国工信部等五部门 印发《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案2025-2026年》，其中特别提到实施产能产量精准调控;铁矿石价格有望 连续第二个月上涨。新加坡铁矿石期货价格稳定在每吨 104 美元左右，8 月份涨幅接近 5%。而以人民 币计价的大商所铁矿石主力合约有望实现连续第三个月上涨。 本周 Mysteel 发布的数据表明，五大钢材品种的总体需求和库存压力适中，这对 9 月和 10 月的生产旺 季预期而言是个利好。据中国钢铁工业协会的数据，8 月中旬中国主要钢铁企业的库存较月初有所增 加。 （原标题：市场情绪改善 铁矿石价格有望实现今年首次月度连涨） 周四，中国已制定计划严格控制钢铁产能并削减产量，受此消息影响，期货价格飙升近 2%。虽然减少 钢铁产量看似对炼钢原料铁矿石不利，但此举可能会改善苦苦挣扎的钢铁厂的经营状况，并推高这种建 筑金属的价格。因为唐山的钢铁厂削减了产量，类似的逻辑使得铁矿石价格上涨。 由于市场情绪改善，铁矿石价格有望实现自 2024 年以来的首次连续两个月上涨，不过由于全球经济前 景仍不稳定，涨幅可能会受到限制。此外，控制 ...